“既防‘黑天鹅’，也防‘灰犀牛’

billzhao

学无止境，今天又学了两个词
& H6 q" }+ w+ r$ p  |; V  U
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billzhao

Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

# f5 t. Y! L5 g4 L4 d1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  o8 k, ?/ ~) a' P# ~! k2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
+ M5 l% \# x/ p9 {( V$ a3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

billzhao

Michele M. Wucker /’wʊkər/ (born 1969) is an American author, commentator and policy analyst specializing in the world economy and crisis anticipation. She is the author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.

" [: U% T" S, F! O9 b  rWucker introduced the term "gray rhino" at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland in January 2013. Unlike highly improbable "black swans" popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 book, gray rhinos are highly probable, high impact yet neglected threats.

中国嫩炮

黑天鹅就是你去女朋友的父母家拉肚子上厕所，拉完了一冲发现厕所堵了。
$ F- S. ~% a5 q/ M  r3 B9 b0 l灰犀牛就是你去女朋友的父母家拉肚子上厕所，拉完了一冲发现厕所堵了，等你出来才发现厕所门口斗大的字写着“厕所堵了”。

hunter168

gray rhino is more dangerous than black swan because the former is far bigger than the latter.

billzhao

hunter168 发表于 2019-5-16 09:45
/ D7 g& ~) y% ?+ y- N0 ggray rhino is more dangerous than black swan because the former is far bigger than the latter.

smart guy