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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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- R2 f7 f$ {" U$ }有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。
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# b2 y Z! g4 mMan who called the oil crush now sees this
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. S/ O j; `/ H: U( m, c; iin Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017 Q/ r" s9 P+ w( M" J0 X8 b
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known." P7 t9 w2 a/ |. I# @' }
9 h7 c, }) M& p" W. kOil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.. ]& j% k9 |2 c9 P* e' u& O
4 z, {0 D0 Z/ i: i# u* R4 V9 kNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.- }- Y. K% Q/ J+ j$ K
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”9 D) C! {. Q2 {9 T& Q( f
* c; Q9 c3 G, f9 vCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”9 V+ \, `4 a, j$ @
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.9 ]2 N. V6 @ p4 i/ d+ a& F0 r
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.9 e( T3 [. O+ ^: |0 k, c9 g
# P; M; R; v, C" l5 OWhen it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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. {/ ? h/ W; R J% h3 P“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”! T" T& \, c8 R5 M- ^* ~4 ?
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking 2 V: p; W7 b. Y8 ?& Y1 X
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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" U% U S# g4 x- H# B# nSource: CNBC
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
