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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007; _! x, {; M2 @2 \- z% b& h. `
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
( O q$ |* v# Z5 cBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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2 e* c% H& i M3 @* x4 K5 G! TThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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9 [9 T! A/ b- ~ |Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ( i! ~* Y) ~0 z/ `
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. `3 M9 Z/ P6 b4 d
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. % _8 C6 E* O$ e7 S- B
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/ s0 u2 x) N8 x, [9 d"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 5 `: {; K" x( n4 [; a* o' d' }
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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! a" l7 r3 n' Z9 o+ M) p+ a"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. / ~1 f# c2 O; x. P7 v' O
) n; Q7 }0 O$ ]6 A- zCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ( e; C: S/ N. `' @8 s- P. e
. |$ N0 q5 E/ g% M' O* Q"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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( f# _$ s& Q: ? @6 MStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 0 q E. ?9 p. n- L
2 }2 B3 s+ [& }"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 3 ]2 t& e: n" P2 L4 Z, l
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. , v+ C* e5 b/ U6 _9 v
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. / R2 ]5 d4 g r5 X6 U( } O
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# [7 y2 P# g9 H/ i* tHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." # }5 T1 r6 y- R1 e4 t4 E6 J" ^
, z2 }: J! Y. A$ v2 pExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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* U T, S4 j8 A' w1 V6 T, xOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 1 g) i5 F; `" q$ \$ s
: O% ^/ X$ A1 ^& t* z: U; i/ h2 ZHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 1 c4 I5 U9 x8 O4 B
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. # T0 t4 t! X! m, a3 p) y, M
( ]# o1 c: A2 D) u fYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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' W+ ^( C0 F" j9 H7 d/ i"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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& `: x1 p; c7 F! g* j% ~Let the good times roll. 1 D! S3 |: ?" U& x- B" D, \% O# `
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