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* N- ~1 }. k+ n& L3 |. Z+ Y& K" G Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.' U3 [, P1 h5 s
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007' l _. r4 u- c
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN9 o; c, R5 W6 \
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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9 b) I" x) e) k' D, D% u7 J- RBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. G9 ]7 ~# [, ]9 Y
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." * S8 W+ ~0 o% a' v$ b$ Z' p
6 B3 ]4 C" @3 j! |/ GShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. . _. h# ?2 i2 ^" l2 W I
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. % f. ]( J3 n8 I- N% d+ g' \" q r Y) X
# z0 ` K' e; U* M# @Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 0 r/ N: k/ W( A T* x
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ; {) {) z, i4 z% R
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. % |. g( j6 C* A: {- I
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 1 R6 I' g2 q8 o( V
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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) d( S6 l) T+ q9 LHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 P8 J, O% S3 s8 T5 s1 q2 L( z
, s& V/ U0 t$ KOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. + G6 f9 Z- j: r8 s' K2 B
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 9 v! e B" Y5 Q) h6 G( x0 E
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. + i* |" k1 ?# K
4 Z7 I3 p' Y- B) D8 d( ?7 PSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ( k4 d# ^/ [: b* Y, s; o3 R
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ( S6 [. \+ L5 [, B
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line* s t4 u# }3 b% f0 l' |) V
Next story: Building permits hit record
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