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Thu, January 11, 2007
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& ^/ ~) n+ S% m o; S2 x* k$ LPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
$ N0 ?0 i2 g0 v' c! UBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN. z! N. K8 _4 O+ K3 v% f
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4 J- O! s8 R' W" rThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. & X% m4 q, B8 [3 j; W6 H
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ; y, [( n; f: H$ n/ R8 l( i& U
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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" w% h. _3 J* y/ \9 n6 {; t5 Y"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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c5 d, t4 p( P- E& n. c% dCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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. z8 w6 j2 d6 ~" i' F4 h" s2 w( N1 i"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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+ h c6 R; O2 t; N; ?5 j"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ! q4 s1 k4 z' |! I! S9 M
0 @5 _7 O9 e- [% {, E) Q"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 2 C4 I9 q! B7 t6 v; u, w9 }) q
& i P' p- s# g"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' {0 z" M; O& u: k! ~/ A
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. t# `/ b* g/ Z% WHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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: J4 a9 ?) i- W ]+ U3 J5 DExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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+ v8 U M" J: j- U& OOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. . O/ f$ D1 c2 T8 O7 m
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. / Y, i- s- A3 T( y4 M+ a
: r0 B. f9 u3 G' hSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. : o, F" R4 h6 @. N# @0 r
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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! c- X* r: Q2 W' xLet the good times roll. 6 n( g8 K0 v: H" Q7 M4 C( E2 X
0 o3 `9 ^" I* s2 B7 j: M' d: FPrevious story: Bottom Line# k! e( ?4 E/ ^' _& f+ E. x k! o. v( \
Next story: Building permits hit record* v- ?* T8 t9 `9 ^% m! a6 T
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& ?; W0 p2 G8 y8 f; l1 p1 y* R! p This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun. ! g' t) ? A4 c; b
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