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0 u1 O @3 | M8 M Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com3 i- n" w8 T" a) ~
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; k' I$ U) r' ^7 X) G# v; i9 C In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 20079 A9 Z8 `: P$ [7 y6 N+ c% E& E
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
K$ [- `0 o3 t; p3 t% {: Z8 T |By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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0 F' ^9 C9 x# {) d8 kMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ' J, H9 E- P; U2 F3 U( c
, D6 ` K! s, M' F8 I9 U) F5 ?Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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9 ?& D/ N7 \4 U" c+ e: N"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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" m% s m; \6 X0 U% r _7 rShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 3 v( a4 i; u0 a1 z7 K3 U9 w
: o/ I+ T: S* D5 V& ]* |) ]0 b) S4 q"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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8 p& A( q& W/ R. V8 vCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 3 s) w0 l4 Q* t0 u, E" D2 I
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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; n* P& P& G* ~, M0 a# r( vStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. . ~' m0 u( |2 w/ j) ?9 _, s7 g
, Q8 n: Q) N" K% v2 U0 u" Q"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. , J0 R& `0 S& | Z
9 L" u: Z$ c$ s. P* {9 S) L"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 1 {5 l) Z2 g9 [" I6 `' A9 }
+ o9 }2 k& w( `% }5 i( f0 u, \2 ^NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 3 h, H+ j K" v6 p! |
; t4 w# Q$ R- V: lExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 2 E) u4 N' m5 k9 f2 j+ V
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 6 ?4 g% A+ c5 a( B
' K- C, G0 }' @4 t"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. $ ] ^' ~ P2 d- e: `$ i( R
7 q7 D K. O5 [1 Q; B4 N( O. VSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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: S' a' W( ^1 z) X, \9 `! m7 d( EYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 2 I, C4 ?! f$ J- n( _
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ! {, R8 {: f4 N* x4 l
+ y4 D2 h9 K+ g+ e# j3 LLet the good times roll.
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* C# c. c5 Y. q$ L' ~' qPrevious story: Bottom Line
2 N4 u) b$ }4 u! J( fNext story: Building permits hit record' r+ `: t0 o: r% Q+ T* R7 {/ R; _6 K% }! `
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