Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006

屯民

Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable

, ~: [8 @# X/ w- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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; Y! N6 q9 M* w$ a1 u# M9 L% Q    TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
* \: p, e$ G4 R& s4 R, L  \exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
1 @' `) L  C8 w% X! }& a3 squarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
% A# {7 h' S+ _0 `' EQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
7 s- o9 N% U- l% Z8 b2 A6 p) oLePage Real Estate Services.
2 k" {7 i4 v. k3 E
* k: f: y1 H2 s) F; p/ Z4 P' x, S3 k: m    Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
, L& u0 G8 {# _$ m  A8 Y7 G. H0 Jare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
+ M, R. z2 z+ K* E# h; tsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
9 K7 |: T+ N8 m$ b9 J; \. rresidential real estate sector.
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( c# K. }8 r1 ]6 r    Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
# L# N$ _( s  x' i( O, Noccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
6 V3 }( G: d5 w4 Y' q  c(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
) R/ s3 H0 q4 d7 x& S/ {(+13.2%).
8 b* o+ Y+ x  D: B+ Y% M( _; {
    "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
# b8 D2 A! M6 y" c$ p0 Iduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
- v6 [4 y% I/ X1 mpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
balanced market."
) X1 Y) p* X0 S
; H# r9 B2 c$ J) O    Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
# W# z1 ^- U) K0 |* zto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
+ E5 g7 @* L7 M$ X0 K+ \1 S( Benergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
breaking price appreciations.
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    Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
8 C) t) c7 Z: s. g6 F2 Meconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
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    In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
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' `  r+ O+ X+ H  C4 L    While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
. d5 X) _# L5 A* bfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
6 g6 o0 r& m8 Uare markedly different than those found in the United States.

7 Q/ Q' Y( E4 i1 ^    Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
9 H) \+ A" N3 H( ?American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
; n3 [$ Y5 d7 x9 s; V6 v/ x' U8 Oaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
+ g( K# j% _% K4 X. x! `aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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    <<
8 H$ i3 m1 c0 u( k8 y                             REGIONAL SUMMARIES
* }) P7 T! r2 m3 J6 w7 }/ _  D+ j    >>
& e9 r+ e/ q( B( L2 }
    Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
7 J  X$ e( z! L* L3 C  yHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
( W6 A! m& s8 Q! D: ylooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
) v/ ]  O7 v/ v/ Q1 ]: }renovations.

    The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
# z) J1 q+ D$ C* Hincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
3 w1 L2 \9 A. N4 N3 Mcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.

9 h( y" o  J5 y! ^    The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
: M" F; P; w9 f7 V5 G2 W0 _- Mslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
1 e, L1 p+ K+ l* r3 K, rquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
7 |3 Q- L, s4 `5 V+ H4 L* J* U( L600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
& P- j$ x3 {  [to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
# R; P$ T: W; S9 O( L; }  p" J3 Q6 Band are instead opting for more affordable housing options.

' Y( W+ b( l( u' l0 c2 r/ N- h    In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
/ U) `0 @" `, J6 @$ Tdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
8 P5 C1 x6 O. e3 j: Kbuyers with more options when looking for a home.

/ F4 [- h; N4 O' O* r. t    Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
$ ]8 x# u3 i4 W9 F+ Famong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
0 h7 ?0 C5 R1 sas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
; ?! m( |( p! kfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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    Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
1 z* R6 F9 D: hfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
  ^- ^" `" h% l' ewhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
; W: M9 r2 y# h8 a& v% t, mpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
3 B3 W( |- Q! l$ ~/ vmaking a purchase.
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    Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
: m" O: R& K$ U6 W* Lcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
2 [/ D7 \5 H% t( Gattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
5 t4 h5 d- a6 r) U+ b+ I+ W9 kamenities.

    The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
( Z9 ?5 ]# d0 a7 F9 X; e/ e+ qthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
2 X0 ]) [6 R# f: X8 ^+ B/ sacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
4 R6 W: V! z6 g: f7 F- u$ kcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
) @3 R: k" Q2 `- Y  g& _6 F% qdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
residence, rather than for investment.
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! D. S" ~/ t2 r3 S% B9 A    The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
1 P4 M0 n" @& R4 b; drate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
the market.
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    In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
( }  m' u$ l. [* `2 g2 J4 I3 Y  qJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
, J/ |6 I, H# W6 UAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
2 O& a' t, i3 X, X2 f; V3 J) W, uto the shortage of available inventory.
3 I; H/ z$ [' ^% l: d
    Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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( @' b2 _6 Q, p8 a/ j1 L    Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
" {3 S1 t0 t- e/ [prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
5 K1 u5 `- u8 dbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.

, O  E; g% W$ k! N1 q    Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
7 B8 U! l) [6 z: ^% eas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
. A* D4 |, d: H! e5 V5 q5 Hremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
3 ~+ \- [8 y: G/ lmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
5 ?4 }' a" S5 ^- nincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
( }7 `4 `8 b! z' V. a; atowards the end of 2006.   
, X; I* |( N  \" O3 w. c, U! ^
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
9 G! e% p4 |* Y' R' P% p4 Oinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
8 y4 B- r/ r2 kgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
pressure on tight inventory levels.
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- q* b& J& p0 ?$ `+ E+ T, ]    Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
" ]$ k: J2 E) |5 J* Y7 jfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
' P$ W' r/ ?" L, Q! Yfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.

    <<
9 M  Z& }8 t' M0 n      Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
1 z4 p1 w; I! p0 w8 k" G) q: b
- h9 L: ?8 ?) V0 w6 P- m    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ P* [4 F8 U1 J) [6 r$ `                 Detached Bungalows                Standard Two Storey
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 \5 Z3 K9 P: |2 y2 V                     2006 Q3     2005 Q3    Bungalow     2006 Q3     2005 Q3
    Market           Average     Average    % Change     Average     Average
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Halifax          186,333     173,333        7.5%     198,667     199,000
) u& T6 Q0 J# X( q- t# }6 b    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Charlottetown    145,000     141,000        2.8%     175,000     170,000
  Y, g4 F8 P3 K' ]  f+ x  h3 _    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% k0 N; y0 B$ a5 R- r& j    Moncton          135,000     127,000        6.3%     129,000     123,000
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Saint John       141,200     142,900       -1.2%           -           -
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    St. John's       143,667     142,667        0.7%     200,667     202,333
$ F0 O" t* R+ F3 p    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Atlantic         150,240     145,380        3.3%     175,833     173,583
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
, L- X2 }  t* |4 e" k; G3 U    Montreal         213,691     203,500        5.0%     321,141     316,185
7 O6 N- {' \, P8 _& F    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ottawa           290,083     278,417        4.2%     285,667     273,250
6 a; r3 D3 q5 R" W  i5 z    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 o& m# `+ L; K& o- m    Toronto          373,368     355,882        4.9%     481,523     474,766
& P. o# h* `, ?. [% y. m2 d    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Winnipeg         181,579     159,860       13.6%     202,337     180,707
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 O- N$ u8 W0 s0 q4 q    Saskatchewan     170,667     156,083        9.3%     182,600     166,500
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Calgary          395,067     252,411       56.5%     405,778     264,389
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& ]3 F- s& \9 O: V7 y; A    Edmonton         286,857     194,857       47.2%     316,429     206,714
5 w0 T2 u- M8 E& n) }5 S    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Vancouver        704,250     601,000       17.2%     794,000     697,500
  N; Q8 ]% ]/ D' ]% e3 E5 `    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( w& J8 ]% w! q! e7 S+ m2 \! L& C    Victoria         375,000     348,000        7.8%     403,000     391,000
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    National         300,365     258,202       16.3%     365,380     322,860
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

: s* F* e7 w% t    -------------------------------------------------------------
" w+ ?2 F7 E' m' x6 D                               Standard Condominium
! b- U+ K2 H& ~( e    -------------------------------------------------------------
                    2-Storey     2006 Q3     2005 Q3       Condo
    Market          % Change     Average     Average    % Change
* L2 q6 {" U, v9 C9 R: t7 `    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Halifax            -0.2%     142,000     103,000       37.9%
1 d2 |; D0 I# O6 ~9 ]8 I    -------------------------------------------------------------
6 A0 G: m/ U$ V1 f    Charlottetown       2.9%      98,000      98,000        0.0%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Moncton             4.9%           -           -         N/A
    -------------------------------------------------------------
  c- ]: i, B6 y0 C    Saint John           N/A           -           -         N/A
) c' C/ c0 S; g# k+ G) P% B    -------------------------------------------------------------
    St. John's         -0.8%     146,333     145,667        0.5%
& F; z- i4 ^+ r    -------------------------------------------------------------
; x+ I9 T" D- G* A4 g' V- j$ l, E    Atlantic            1.3%     128,778     115,556       11.4%
) a1 y7 X, i: p. e' H    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Montreal            1.6%     193,190     188,016        2.8%
% f5 k9 d9 w$ U# E5 H: ^' \    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Ottawa              4.5%     181,083     172,250        5.1%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
/ }6 r! c+ q7 r, U5 ^0 b    Toronto             1.4%     252,088     242,918        3.8%
9 ?/ q# R: q4 `% y/ A4 i    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Winnipeg           12.0%     105,648      96,008       10.0%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
3 b9 C2 l4 ]/ Y    Saskatchewan        9.7%     106,250     101,000        5.2%
! {+ R- Y  {5 [3 [    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Calgary            53.5%     245,844     153,867       59.8%
9 V5 g! J5 A' @9 \1 j5 ?, z    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Edmonton           53.1%     200,433     131,500       52.4%
- U% z3 {# E6 B2 J( e. U/ P    -------------------------------------------------------------
$ T! u, `8 {( q' B    Vancouver          13.8%     366,250     323,250       13.3%
' t2 Q/ R# D2 G0 L4 ?/ n6 N( y    -------------------------------------------------------------
& Y/ h* s! o7 @; T/ i0 k8 w. a; K2 H    Victoria            3.1%     229,000     220,000        4.1%
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    National           13.2%     211,562     185,296       14.2%
8 r" H- \- A% ~# t    -------------------------------------------------------------
+ i4 H' m+ M4 E0 X- @    >>

+ e7 j9 ^/ t1 E! l! E    Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
- @/ ~! y; l  [: d8 mJohn and Victoria.

9 r  Z- N6 p% \0 \7 k    The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
2 x; x" K( t* L# ~- H. s) A: Pcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
/ k' O: S/ |. D' R4 e5 ]2 lhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
2 h  w6 b" q  o2 x$ htrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
  W/ ~$ Q1 H! @5 D7 \across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
3 ~3 _3 I% t! R; M( g& K+ vfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
0 h0 Y% N, ?) y6 S" e% a+ z1 Hversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
7 r; X# o* d0 U3 n1 {  p+ E0 Y* mNovember 15, 2006.
    Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
. C! D3 ?& y) G' K' mfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
! `) F6 e* B, |- ]# b2 ]provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
* P8 h* t0 d! v6 uavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s.