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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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9 y6 l8 T7 U7 ^& Q0 [) [0 |The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very# a# Q$ Z4 b: y0 c6 m9 S4 P5 e/ n
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
+ @4 s1 ]$ e5 C) Y1 A" w3 U {7 bwill be going.2 f; f* w! o l& g
3 u& T6 h% K( \It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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$ h& T! e. a# |The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by% k0 ]0 L4 ~* y& b0 m
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
4 B& r- z9 @# l$ sindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. ! D* O. j* }2 P0 X" s8 R
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
$ e* h/ d, v& n2 }+ kvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
; y: Y7 L& R4 k U' f9 q0 ~, l5 Lhow much.2 _ z2 o- l9 c$ h% L( U
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,) k- b, t8 M: o0 v
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
( i* U6 b% Y/ q5 X/ o/ Y# Pstrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest1 Y2 p; B7 \. I/ |; J6 z
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
( {9 R! d; E5 C! x% OJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best# }! t2 R* ?. d2 f& i
markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact$ u6 R6 ?5 \. L9 E, S3 D& w
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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4 }( Z- h: j# K' X8 e/ gTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the3 g# O3 K4 A: z1 A4 q9 y
market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
2 ]+ q% c+ d- b0 @+ M6 athe city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
) L6 U: b; G+ ksaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
! f1 ^0 D' {' \This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these4 }" y% d2 h4 d! Y4 d
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six+ e7 k) f! ^! u* ?
months.
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting6 [9 m3 G) `0 \" C4 D5 z
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
! v' }% r6 x2 x& Lfundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
) ^8 G! N+ V4 p0 mthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
7 S& ]: J( I6 k$ W* S; b% X# yuntil it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
6 c# y- b5 o# ybecause they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.9 c/ e. {- p. k% v" T( o6 x' F
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
8 M4 Y- {( i! y2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June4 T* e5 ]0 O* x$ R7 I+ _
2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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, Z( ~# f( A5 z5 LVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
Z4 G& {2 k% n% J& ]* ASaskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%
3 H; g7 t2 {0 u5 T- {( ALondon . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%( y. W0 @0 M* @: l3 r
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%
4 ~7 ~: e- } [% uSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
/ c3 H6 V4 C$ H7 Z/ F4 i- bToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
8 d: X) L5 M3 o9 A- R/ aOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%$ k- u4 q+ U5 Q" F
9 V5 X9 {! W5 rFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
, W- |$ V& @/ [+ r) g) Q3 lgives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!+ U7 U) D7 y% ]+ |; B$ a: Z+ R& J2 [
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to, @5 {5 F I1 F2 X+ `( x
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
4 U& J ~0 Y( J9 Conly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are
, t E+ U7 o x7 {increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to, R9 e4 v7 C2 I6 ~0 C3 U: |2 y
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.5 q6 R8 D) P! Q
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Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong, l$ \) j D& U: X: Y$ X
fundamentals:8 g# r5 B. M1 s/ q; G7 m
. H* o3 C$ w) T) d: j1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
9 C k- u& k# a1 q( c. GCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth$ |7 H+ M; [, B" `% U. Q* h
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and- F/ @6 M: {$ E) l
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
8 Z6 I; x6 ~* t+ I( n8 y8 _world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
: o8 \( F! M6 q' c6 B/ G Q5 Q3 Pthe US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
/ [# e" J2 T1 D. Nthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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( g0 J! _8 H4 l# ^3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
/ A, F! `4 W4 a. i7 Q( {3 J6 O6 watmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
9 E) G: E6 o {2 FDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after* w3 ^* C% A4 j0 r9 W
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest* y+ a. d* d! p! L- A
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again! {1 {4 R, s$ |
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the2 p8 Y; _/ ]4 H6 I9 X
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can7 R) _% P9 w! T! f2 r- \! b# ^
beat it for long term investment.) f+ }8 M& T: ]( Z" H2 [8 x
$ n2 R6 D z. l' p8 V4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely! A5 R r' V* [% i
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job
$ N3 c0 q# c/ ?2 [ c* ^creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
% Q+ m" Y9 A5 \" L: r9 S6 B7 V"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
9 D. G' a7 a1 v4 a. d+ s3 [2 pJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... / c- a/ T$ h$ C& k1 b# O. a
9 G4 b* }& O1 T% f/ R# V8 fStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the4 g7 \7 a- _8 U5 \ o( ^1 w
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the0 t1 ~ m- ? h' ?$ o6 ]5 W( l5 f1 `
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
7 w v2 t8 y5 n1 q7 Q; z% vthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
+ O& u4 d' a8 {repeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with1 j2 z, b& r4 q: L3 _
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at$ x. G; h" X6 X2 P% q M, B9 D/ \
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate; ]0 Z2 \' u% u/ R
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in& }/ s) |: f7 `& h8 b. g% ~
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.! m6 F3 b9 q8 V& @! T4 D& d! `
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
! q9 X8 c% V$ f& G9 K9 Deconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
' Z4 a" ^; H) C0 h'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do3 o: ^) j& \# ?3 r0 D
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
; W5 A; \, ]7 L& ~3 U* ]opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
1 E3 |9 A8 f+ y) s1 m, e'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
2 f" v8 E$ s$ }8 Cand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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Capital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial, Q7 T4 C9 ?: s' }1 a7 \+ n. w
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see
' T5 _# L" _+ j/ thow these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:/ _* H P4 I* B& D; O4 a' b
* W. j8 K% ]9 [: ]0 v# |2 FBC . . . . . . . . 21.9%. s1 o2 {* T/ j$ Y2 m5 p
AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%6 C' \7 x- ^) I$ y% k+ b& u v
SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
4 j4 p9 [% R/ F" \9 }+ WMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%$ k8 H* Q- p; N0 W5 H/ w- c
ON . . . . . . . . 23.2%& @' [+ g5 [. v0 _' d& A' f
QC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
8 Z+ c9 J& \7 v9 ANB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
. t5 B) L; R! D0 {9 rNS . . . . . . . . 24.1%% m/ @4 o% u2 s5 B+ h
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%/ D5 m L1 m# j$ n
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%3 @( A. s( {; r
3 g1 R& A# X8 j& V% T _Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
( O6 W8 P2 v: H3 `4 V$ w1 N* E5 h ~1 teconomy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
4 |* w- N+ k4 v6 O& N: k% G2 v; _their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to., y8 g0 S( J! f3 J
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
V3 n% z+ Y( h. @! h3 k# oopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of2 I$ [. x( Z* |" }$ t( a
course, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'7 `! h$ ?; K+ j7 s! T. E8 [8 V
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion" U. \' A$ ]7 }4 x J
when you take action as a full REIN Member.: B$ q7 T+ \& H% t% v
1 M+ N! ^- R+ _0 f$ h* dFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
. }+ E( D% {( D4 s& xresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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