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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.
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9 F' _: l) a$ U( dhttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html1 q. z) h2 b* U1 H
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.$ f" O. k; `! d7 |" O$ X0 x( W
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.% t: [9 h, q9 d
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Why might it be a good time to sell?$ R6 H* S3 C# Q
9 q# e& H. I% I- c7 F. Y/ MAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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/ z; J! Y5 g5 c"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.4 k. d% J6 l# M' x/ z* V p! P
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.* C3 y" Z4 c- m" H- ^5 n
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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Burleton knows how they feel.
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, C, L# M" Y' Y: p1 s( {"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years." p. O4 L+ g/ ^+ R1 a% k- |
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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/ j0 p' W6 @5 M" A5 n5 d5 N% nIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.2 L8 G/ e3 G+ k) q6 Y+ q8 U# w! @/ ]
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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( p W& p0 Q$ r3 o+ [ `4 gDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.8 M( Z! W/ A+ _; @( |
0 ~' }, C$ A' y5 i, v- z" Z4 u- |"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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3 s, v+ E2 f5 `" j: c1 U"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."( h( w, ~& Y V. }' l6 X
" B2 d7 A1 k7 {/ FThe market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.8 R0 Z4 o! U) Z! {- V7 P% R
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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