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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & g- W! u# i+ {9 b% |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the1 f1 y7 E4 i$ j* N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 `* Y% m! C# z! K% cgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) T# R0 U' ?7 J6 @5 ^9 }% K) Baccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.7 {; q0 _# ^' N
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 a2 C% d; g* g& @6 J& J. f: H! r9 esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* C5 h$ K3 a u6 b6 c8 @% X
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability; h% L$ a9 ?! E4 ]# ~* d, n
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
0 l( _& G/ N0 ]9 I" r9 }, @7 } RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 O# v% M$ l' n b& Q A5 Lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( X9 K) \. Y: l+ r; v
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; i$ o" }# U8 @7 @( S, s. p
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." r/ t. q& V) ? ~# }3 |! g
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 c4 ~0 m! f' m6 Kproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a% `& r. R. F+ e
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% n( Y: a' V u g
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 ]2 f$ Z2 K, O
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
: k% i. }3 ?2 M; E6 H' jthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- a. w0 L; T* l* ?+ P According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! ^! P/ T$ T1 ]# @% k0 xmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 `6 X4 }/ e% R5 {: M& m$ b* c
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
2 [' |# u$ W& Z" I/ B* t& l6 ?" qhistorically depressed levels.! i: |" W5 r/ D) e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. g! s3 s' T& g' h) L- Q; p% ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! Q+ [$ `2 } a
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ i) ^/ R C, h5 {9 _# f( t4 ?3 C
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( C8 T9 n! L$ W) w
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 ^! `9 b5 A( s+ L
months ahead," added Hogue.5 y8 K$ b5 E a$ ?3 @; ~9 o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
- l1 M3 k6 p# H6 V+ wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 C7 R% I/ K3 }+ O( N/ a
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent. p2 @9 _9 q+ o5 i6 {5 @1 Y- x
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 Z& c9 H. \/ C, Qa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 j7 R# Q$ n4 qcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( C1 o9 Y! }+ F8 m& A
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
/ p0 w" h- e! n' G4 X F' M+ S. E The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 c$ i! M5 t+ |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ G: [; C8 b& \: b& ?2 m2 A0 y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ t, R7 E. C3 Z' m) D( [; ~, e: c
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 ?4 h4 j) T9 Y' _$ hcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# H$ N2 Q/ c0 ]+ _4 S) n
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 f4 t: s, k: O( m* S0 Gcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 b/ c: g- R: I# d2 g
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 y/ J* b+ @ @+ |
2 @# ^5 }+ f( {; U2 F7 o <<+ r% X" {2 b7 n, F( J- f7 V
Highlights from across Canada:
5 s/ h7 p5 z( U: G# M$ {9 `$ o q! H d8 ?, o" J9 z- r
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 p5 `; b' B; N" I8 O intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 Y( x* t( k4 j
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. D# A# v( |' P only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' F$ w* v3 x/ M7 S8 _% F
since about the middle of 2007.
2 }7 l. I4 ?- n: K7 X - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 d8 J0 B8 r& |- Q" |! k( K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# d5 x1 f5 I% z9 w2 l* [
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still- M8 o1 H m. n, ]
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 s4 ~$ D, Y, H) t9 Q& c
poor affordability levels.
, K" F# A$ s2 n/ z. C: l/ S - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. Q- |4 Y0 l; }2 b& d; @ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% d/ k: P+ v8 a9 k5 _/ b6 m G/ L
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 A3 W) @) S' b, B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! l! Z+ R# J5 r9 k5 O minimize any downside risks.9 Z P% o* Q5 P# X+ v& d
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market \ u* Z; m* R) r$ n
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% U- e$ `/ a+ x5 l5 S1 S unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
V# u7 n9 M6 _2 U/ u6 W 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 E% ^: j C6 M; E$ h3 Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. x: b* ~3 G. {: |! ?" n
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 Q8 e4 u- `9 e8 Z- n$ E Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. d4 Z( V/ x: p- N8 }$ \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* ~ }+ P2 a @4 J
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ U6 @0 J0 r( n
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. @. p6 I# `1 L/ L7 `: n
modestly in recent years.
* P: R3 J* p9 m9 [6 D& c - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the7 l/ j7 ]4 A& `. P, E. U$ s
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" E" a$ K |3 F
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 L2 A! R& Y6 j9 R0 P7 |3 {/ {( Q
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 s' ]' P! b+ q4 Z9 j7 K0 \" a. }
following two years of deterioration.$ \3 d3 i. F1 G
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