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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 y3 [/ [+ J* E9 X4 ?) |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, O6 [3 T4 `( W7 y% j) hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 Z" x# z- }! g+ s% t: K- j; D
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& D: a$ e* Q4 @1 ^according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
& ?" j. @0 y# t4 ? \+ v; x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; w% a& M1 O* T9 e$ Bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ N9 E9 Y s$ J1 ~5 [' h: Oimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 s$ E- F4 L6 r. smeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& Q* m E) s" ?1 a# Y0 ~7 ~& C
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; X: G, U6 r/ ^1 aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ `( I. N& S1 G' U% M( jwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 ?; ?" x/ B. @: n0 e- |
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes./ c Z4 l# g6 \- K& Y! a. h
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ A* j8 S. V! Vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! B) y( Z: ]' D! R7 _# dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
s8 S( r' K0 H4 R( v3 ^5 D ?8 wAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 R6 w7 u$ g1 M$ w% L6 o) Wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 A& {$ F$ @+ b5 w5 J' {! qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 k, R7 W m$ |0 b+ { According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
8 [3 p$ n" I7 B/ E s3 kmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in7 L/ c& C M/ x/ X
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at( |# b6 ^. n5 u q/ F' o( [
historically depressed levels.2 u1 G) Y9 G ^: O7 x; l. j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 K S" i+ S9 q8 w1 o
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 w/ r! [: r4 V% ?8 A9 {* O
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, C( {' X8 |8 W$ Z4 Y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 W2 a( W. q' J; Uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- j$ j+ ^( e# Q+ N
months ahead," added Hogue.+ H: V6 x" q! @2 u* |4 ]: j3 ~
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 F: [) d" H O% }; G; M* n
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" r% ^+ f; f7 S: \, C
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 h ]* g9 F+ Q" X# { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 ` `1 |1 S4 v( N4 q' [3 wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( ^( W& a( G+ k1 e1 \- Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
) G D) m/ z0 @ K: \0 l1 l5 v9 T2 b9 J `takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 l) `6 V1 G# m5 Z8 J# L1 Q# G
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 e' }& J, _" k8 C. pbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 d) B) V- R( v7 B! I3 qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% p0 v- c/ [1 ^( h( tincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( g' @+ D% d2 C0 f2 l- J/ \condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. S8 d7 u; t1 I! {
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 H' o, X1 i- g1 s$ A0 M( V8 ^
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 m2 B1 `' b$ |8 e% S; e$ u' R2 Z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( v9 I, @) I* {8 i2 ]
3 W: N$ M( ]; A& t1 p <<
( K4 d1 \7 p% f* k4 k Highlights from across Canada:
& w, v3 _8 B3 {' g3 J
: T y& E" o$ \9 u* w - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 p6 U) n, }- O% m3 w8 @ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
* p6 x* t/ a+ j& x% F$ L! { E home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 Z: H# i, }6 Y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! M0 Y8 r: K* H6 l since about the middle of 2007.4 P' r* s7 Q1 l- s- j8 U
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; j V4 q) O5 x9 ? {/ A: M* n* ~* _
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to: h$ W j0 a) D2 @1 |
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ T9 g" A0 s2 N, b2 Z4 N' j largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 ~8 }; ?; N/ o' l/ n& M& Y' c poor affordability levels.
& i6 t# Q' r4 L1 P - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the5 v; f- b9 K- j$ f4 O
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and x( L& P$ o; y, g7 K7 v7 m
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. d( w! {# E- r3 ~+ K, C# |, N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 ~5 Y s- F' T$ h# h$ i( u minimize any downside risks.
2 ~' |6 g/ ?: o/ o6 Y - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" ]* g$ R( w, Y4 N2 [6 G# ^
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; J6 @1 K. M: Q* ~7 g1 K" |
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early; X# R& J3 Q2 ~+ W! M* H. E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 a9 i* o/ @( Z( Z$ Q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., ?+ s( M8 L9 c1 W" S1 S
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 I9 y0 t9 [# ^* N7 L# }6 [ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# d" L+ N) n5 l! S- R! S) g5 S- T far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 a7 y8 v* h0 L/ J# T3 ~; H& {2 N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be" c7 s2 X+ j) }3 R! }
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
# y) g" K5 n4 {7 h$ b: v modestly in recent years.
' p7 l( ?; I* t$ i4 n1 n* e; [6 ~ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- W3 f* b1 p* F& y5 i, Q3 c9 \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! F+ e: D1 _6 G. n( x1 s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ {4 q& p0 e5 X1 @ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. P! f/ [7 j! J* \8 ~ q
following two years of deterioration.+ ?" ~9 L0 S" i) Q4 m9 M5 s
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