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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! a/ j* [1 }7 i ?* R; j
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( K3 t3 s0 q: G: F( s# X hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! p$ N3 U( y9 ]6 |& @3 S+ h
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' H( N2 i" Z' K. Q1 m$ w1 @" Taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% {$ s$ r$ O' \9 L "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 ^' l* }' y) h0 ~, ?" W
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 ~ b9 z8 M G* U" {* e0 T" o+ v( V
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 U2 |# Z$ q1 umeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."/ R" Z) _" p' z; Q* u9 S3 e
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is5 I! t9 w( X1 J( O7 N: {7 p" {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- v- U$ C0 B+ pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ f) t9 v0 h, p4 N$ ~7 f: _sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.3 m) \% [$ Z. `7 j) q( @
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- f1 [. @1 O( \. }* @& P Y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. \4 l; ?# l! s9 e, U0 Bhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ M& s1 ]! f# e! H- ]# a
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, H: e$ q) H4 astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and, R* G2 k. r6 A% h# u4 c/ W8 N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.) H) Q/ t/ {% F# E
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 I" s6 B" m+ Rmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in. O1 G+ b4 c6 D- [5 Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at; g: o1 D, l0 }4 h& U
historically depressed levels.; ~1 v9 k# `/ |1 g( I
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, v4 M& O: b3 ~( Z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House/ d# P0 P5 N" z# j3 \
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ s0 h3 x7 |3 k; J% }
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' w- ^2 m8 Y- {6 N. x8 w) zenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ e+ a( _: C; W$ {- X' j" D& Q2 Jmonths ahead," added Hogue.* t; l8 ?" y( Y, E7 x7 p' {: P4 e
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
$ x6 v ^6 f+ y$ H" ]cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 _+ C& w; W! W7 F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( v1 {5 k$ D2 c. t$ D
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! N: F0 b3 D3 w" u7 T3 P; la broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
) O9 \( c0 S! r% O* i i! Y+ [cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only5 B, f% E1 z# ~7 `( G$ j* S
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& R$ q+ d( |* I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ |* Q/ K$ u# D7 Cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property# V/ _: [7 l& g- p( s: S' S
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 y( J" S9 W! M. Vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* E1 {0 b% O- D( S
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 Y6 p5 B1 K! ]9 `0 t/ JFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 `; e3 q% a1 {8 |5 C* l9 Q, xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50: u) I* `0 l! w, X0 h+ V( q5 U/ i
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 y' B5 I) M1 T7 Z3 g( [- Q# Z% B
<</ `# d5 H, i6 m3 S$ u4 y" ~
Highlights from across Canada:) ]. v9 k4 {/ }/ l% x& x8 b9 ?
# u0 f( x5 `2 g5 d; y! }' N. b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
2 y& O7 n8 ^# X* K; P+ W3 _ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ `5 r# |. T* X+ g* b
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. B# c4 ~, M2 ]" O6 l2 e/ ` only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: N3 Y9 R. M/ S3 {! s! ?/ ? since about the middle of 2007.
* `0 X/ I. W! W - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' z- g. ^' g. k, L0 u3 M3 j. P frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
0 T( b+ [7 q9 E7 H8 I* p* }9 q6 ~ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 G5 [- k* S- v. ~) \4 U largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely& l; P4 K6 ?) s! a$ [
poor affordability levels.
" J$ Z( t- [- ^0 b/ ~2 Z' a8 i4 @ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) L. m+ \: Q$ J3 D; S+ e/ M2 t( U! D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' t1 A! P; E" C) J) s prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" w8 D9 L5 l$ M9 N, B. b" x Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' u: w1 O) G. w! [4 F
minimize any downside risks.! h' o8 ^( {5 W0 K
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ k o/ ?4 W1 o8 S
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ e! Q" b! b* U unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: i; y8 @5 Q# p. S- [# P 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& \2 _ }; S7 E, Y: v being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: q# {) a) q0 ` Z. F! M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& N+ z( U$ i! ?1 H0 G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. f% n+ T- ` a) ?0 K far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- O6 r: w C# z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- p0 N9 v; s8 v; V/ x; R
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 H0 U* m) T. S! @! p4 M% j
modestly in recent years.2 C8 _- w, a. F
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
$ u: K4 e5 h& m9 l% Z. j7 K general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# d+ Z1 |; O8 ^8 ?% c o% h- |
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* n' \- J$ [9 C* Q* p" O$ Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. e. ]: }3 J3 g: `
following two years of deterioration.2 D% b; |3 T* }
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