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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ T2 _* {* d- r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
+ t* d8 O: W6 X$ k* e' k4 F+ vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& N7 E# {% w5 o
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( ^8 ^0 n) z$ @according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 h; {3 E( \& k6 S- G+ M) b$ F" n
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 W$ W/ B5 i6 y+ I0 |0 m, u; Msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ V, b( w0 I& E* C( p. Q- C
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ ? ?/ `: Z$ [ j; \) G* e
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& r: |; c) ]8 p5 w! d8 @
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is# x# G9 X. `: {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing, ^9 E5 b$ q" ]7 r2 r
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; t/ d i" l( F H7 }+ O. Nsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. \* \8 r3 C+ f; p
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 }& z; |6 b! h, w) ]
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& B- W* |0 U+ d& }
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 R# V4 g, Z+ \+ K$ z2 l" f5 `( sAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the l8 {& b# L; X
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) w6 e% h# K; c2 P; ~3 h
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& e* u, R- d) o. X9 Q+ n8 M
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( b6 }( w* D2 @- b! A, E
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ |. f8 e4 N/ N1 S& w: }6 \# ?$ O
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 V3 u9 P4 |8 @
historically depressed levels.# q$ F" p1 {3 Z/ @
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost; X5 o- ~ c K; J
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House6 Z& N9 R2 U; z# ~
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" D* r$ ^: X& r' }4 Y+ @' j
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 M# z: M ]0 A/ |8 _enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' D4 O$ [% g3 J9 }! Q- O
months ahead," added Hogue.. V+ `, L( d9 S
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! O g" K, O6 Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, I6 V/ ?# Z ]: L3 Y3 C
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# E! ]5 z. z L- w7 Y6 t' Z; U5 I5 N* j The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- m* R+ r7 t0 o( M5 T+ K0 Ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- T' O) x' o2 V
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 {6 l' f+ }2 w& V6 otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# k2 y3 P; O5 G5 y( {1 B The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
" A, S5 T! y ^: o, z) a; R. o. ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 Z( E7 @# \: R4 _% M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" [ U9 L$ Z1 ?4 v. G4 d4 Z% ?1 K
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. ~6 i+ {9 k6 }condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 e8 r8 O4 ^! y; O! O1 Z/ y, GFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership {' N/ t8 F9 Y& w e
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 h& s+ }1 p& g, A# N. C1 }per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ \, a# B. Z" y% t4 ~* ?* {
% Q n8 T9 i( J p. p <<
, d" U! P( |: S+ M Highlights from across Canada:6 h* X, R6 p& `2 B$ Q
0 L4 l" {5 R! J* }$ M0 m
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' w+ o: U; R8 @9 s3 _! x
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing% H; \9 i' U; I) H
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) o6 U6 M9 o: @) J# z* U# c X( J. ?( e only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" U8 ~0 Z( @/ a4 e8 X8 c since about the middle of 2007.
3 I7 ?2 k& w8 r8 p9 z9 R4 |* j - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! i$ A' z: G! g5 h3 q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# T5 i: ~: i. k9 X
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ ]+ M' s y) g! E
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 T9 I6 f. R7 X5 m M poor affordability levels.5 _3 k4 ^( V# b, _7 n
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
2 Y4 s( L1 j7 z# c k; k vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) } q0 q0 I- r5 p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, n8 F" X1 O5 L4 d Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to" T: u$ Q$ c& x2 p" k
minimize any downside risks.3 u! P8 {' R5 X+ H8 T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 S0 Y7 Z4 t9 m$ B) s
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 t7 |* a! q, g' g; S unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- e* L7 I- b( N& X 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; c+ u" k2 M: K2 R7 M being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ [- Q9 l9 M1 I; Q" M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* G {7 S; ]+ D) L; h. K* |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ g R" k; t* ~
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% A% v+ A5 f* u# n& b/ `- h
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' _9 b: B* h7 I& p0 O# L
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 ]# h* R0 [5 C, i modestly in recent years., \/ Z% q: ^- A
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' ]$ W2 j" N. s j: e5 Q8 M( z8 e general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 S% P' @! {8 ]& }# Y/ N# F; y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward. e1 n1 z7 v8 `4 d* j" c* n
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 c8 o. u. @# l" }* r4 N D! B0 e following two years of deterioration./ w3 R" ]. x# E0 p/ ^# v5 y; A- T+ S
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