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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( w4 X6 d) X, y) y( a- I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( }' y$ O- p2 J, C: v/ S% b+ X" dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- S$ x2 j; R; f
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 Q% O) A% ~1 E" _; S
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* ~0 W' e% X; O
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
. m% X( t% s; Z% H+ p D& \said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
0 L+ k- W6 [' [: r `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* L, u8 _( y! \; ]/ \# ^4 A$ R' r8 P) p
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 }1 w3 J! W& i: A8 Q' f3 a& y3 Q9 P
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is a5 c) @( H& ? ~" N5 V% r9 {0 ]
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; H6 E2 @8 l' }+ A0 H) D% lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. M- p: I4 x5 P d- S7 v; {sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.2 U2 S9 x& q6 ^7 H4 ~( t
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& V' ]& K. g* }: N
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. G. o0 I/ P" _2 P+ J5 M" Z
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* T# a7 L/ x9 }3 s& Z) d' g
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 n: P- h4 |. F# ^3 p# ustandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ G3 Y1 K- S/ X. N/ Cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.1 H1 a8 U. i y* i6 C
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets U! W2 p% N, [/ |. w0 p
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
& j7 g5 ?# v1 K2 j1 d4 Y8 xthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
Z( V: N7 c1 Y, a* J/ nhistorically depressed levels.! w& L: G. A% Q a- J& W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ Q6 I4 D$ X; G8 qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" w7 U+ L. U4 ~5 f$ c: mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' n7 K2 M7 S' ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This. X5 K8 }. e& m/ u
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. Z' C. N& m3 F- |
months ahead," added Hogue.. k" X" K0 ^5 x) e: Y5 \8 ~# p
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# P7 p$ L% y5 U' i2 X6 p+ Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 F* }/ G8 D# A7 {
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
, z% e" J$ G% }( ?, A ^' W The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; W' p( e: o0 z, ]
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these* `% ?% R) Z% O* n
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 [; R1 e2 Z. E* f& k6 |takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 o; P8 Z9 O* [" M
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 n- G" k! d. q5 @" q3 T4 Z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ m1 y5 G/ [8 K8 t
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' E6 T7 l3 @% A* m* Q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% k4 }( w, G+ Y+ Q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* m5 C( B$ r8 z* o! ]. {
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 ] C3 q I7 R" Zcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& m$ E* `- q. T S/ I2 q; rper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! T; @' E) d5 l
0 Z/ |+ H2 z. J/ D, e* l <<1 `+ M, h+ N% E& a Z
Highlights from across Canada:! b8 M2 M/ u3 b- }' x1 G
8 h4 s. D: u& E9 V) B
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has3 o3 V* A& Q6 ]4 C* s3 {
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( g( m; u0 M- l+ ] home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# u9 f+ Y) j$ R ^' |$ h2 ^
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 @1 i$ t4 W, d
since about the middle of 2007.6 z; [0 @9 R, T. N' P! F( x
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 Y. ?/ @( `% B$ a# W1 K5 w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 l, q5 s' ^& ?% {3 \* ? decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: y0 B* t9 L: ]& K ], d) a
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 q# z9 \7 ^' B( e poor affordability levels.
- Y5 p+ P0 |5 u5 F% f- h - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 n+ ~1 H0 D' t5 [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 w1 h2 c+ l7 V+ H4 i0 ~ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# k9 x' c0 m' M7 e3 Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 z2 D+ ]! |! y" [! g. ]; u. d- ]
minimize any downside risks.$ A/ i g1 E- b5 b; Z$ U5 W
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! Q o* L6 N: i/ i7 Y. D% V conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ W, [. D# `% v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 x, A c2 p/ `0 L
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# c' I4 E; d7 }
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." `# `+ D; j& ?; w, ?/ D+ W2 a2 k7 V; w
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% i& C4 }: u0 `
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) S9 F3 Y4 j! G! ~" j- A; R far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: _4 g2 O, q" k5 ~
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: ?" P6 N+ D# @& l6 n t& `
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( @& J# Z/ ~1 w: B {1 j
modestly in recent years.$ @# w% v5 m9 U7 m W2 s
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
, i; v5 S4 O, h# F general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! M% O& C8 \, r spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
9 O4 w, h% Z! U% i+ u8 P* I price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 r+ V* @5 J. _& w7 M following two years of deterioration.1 E: ^- p! i7 `" \; I
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