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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 4 s2 N, I3 i3 |4 b% Y5 ]
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
. C) Y+ H( c8 {( o! _( {middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 S2 v T; g- ~
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ v( X" C& W. V qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. V% L4 y2 P2 e) F+ Q5 e) g
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% f3 d! C/ s5 |9 r; ?# ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 R' b$ c0 ^9 u' o: Simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
) K* O3 T H7 c" X1 _; O1 Zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 R' R7 n$ I6 D" f
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 K* d: Y4 b7 xworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ s- L- g% K9 H" R. D
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
# S+ h5 m& M/ E! Y2 k% J$ Msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 P$ g( |: z9 B" H1 w7 e
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the! I! ^# B: A% O8 v9 K
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, i# B3 V+ j* p$ whome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. P% z- @% c# m3 AAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 X' S8 n- ]$ [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' f# v6 \& e( S" a" H* o) O
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' n8 X1 S$ }1 d( {* t8 K j1 g
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% O8 v& F2 @% F4 Z0 c# [may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 g' b! S1 N: W ~6 v5 p
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% n' X& R8 U1 ~3 Q% Lhistorically depressed levels." d# q$ \ w* ~6 y4 o. @
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% y* o3 A3 u5 ?( S7 A* Q" l( ~of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House6 j# ^+ P; z& f6 A
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 h, c) ?9 d, E+ {; D! f
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 {( }9 M# P' H$ K+ \
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 p' ?9 ?1 |# \5 T- k/ [# S
months ahead," added Hogue.: S. d0 a9 V3 I! E' a, F0 j& v
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! F Q2 z' P0 @
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary3 X+ k$ W5 u. ^
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 Y, H p: `% J( e, j" v
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% `' D% ~) Y/ Z5 B7 oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 x9 J; H; i! R9 ?3 D2 v3 xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only2 R5 h! c/ o6 h" c& x8 x7 D
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.# e7 K. t# N+ M5 v. m
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( d% B3 \9 [) L% J4 H3 I
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; S+ T' L( e2 o: Fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% d: a1 m1 [) jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 d- }! S2 f$ f7 J1 f7 i% X$ [condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 m y+ S" v/ W$ m1 o9 q$ h6 EFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( m# {6 \: L: N5 {
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% p9 C3 v1 G+ E$ G/ f1 e% Y( Nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# @& n1 s) r5 S0 c, M N( X/ M# e0 J# W0 ]6 z1 ]! s) n7 u
<<
, G- K$ n3 ^% m/ C% d- ]6 S Highlights from across Canada:
) Q# p' O1 ], ~# v- _4 I
8 w" ?/ b/ v+ D! ]; ^ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 ~" ]1 x5 N' K/ m intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing9 ]) k6 ^- d7 g8 ]8 N
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 A8 ~4 s$ x% u! o9 S9 x" h) Q3 | only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! c9 Z8 D4 [ k. }% u! s since about the middle of 2007.4 b0 Q0 v% Q0 `
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 e! I7 q |* ?* \3 X
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 t- v r0 \2 J, }1 m; q" o
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 J; C: a6 i# S: z5 \& G9 q
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" N @9 j# `( @' Z, ?9 } poor affordability levels.
5 b+ ]7 A2 C& ?8 |: _7 w - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! R0 f' C# I" |6 H$ p vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# S; t1 W; |8 U+ p9 p- N% B prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( }# c& a! K7 l
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to7 i+ Y% c1 i9 R( D( b
minimize any downside risks.
0 U) q1 Z( X2 ?& Y8 L" U, O - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' M+ |% ~+ C& [; Z3 b- Q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 \( e2 g/ ?0 N5 W& |
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early/ N+ J* {' W, i7 r
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* T+ M5 j$ R8 @$ i2 W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ C4 f5 B1 F2 c5 d' E' c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- `. h, P- E$ n- T" f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
+ g6 Z& w. ^& m3 U. D far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ n: n9 M" i6 N- ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ C& ]& w! j, b: A6 ~) K: |/ W* Q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only$ L7 F1 q- z$ ~$ Y/ ^+ c: j- z( g
modestly in recent years.: [4 B7 x6 D. [9 c6 d
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* p) e8 ~" X" O general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 ]3 S6 a7 |6 {: d0 e, {& e8 c spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# v: k# r7 E5 ?( C
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 l7 q8 n2 Q1 F0 q3 |
following two years of deterioration.
' F b/ j" [0 Z1 A2 k5 d" I7 Y >> |
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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