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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # _* ~/ b* U& d6 }. A0 u' }5 G
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; t. D8 c- P0 R5 m- _! \* zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* k8 D# t$ y8 `& l' ?gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! a3 R9 r% P; A3 J3 S( k: Saccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( a0 @7 Q/ z; ~. O- @/ G/ L
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", P, O+ N! b! H/ k1 x; s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 M) S% i8 W$ V0 q1 S7 [improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& D+ G$ T3 [- Imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& u# I& o7 g. L7 ?5 j7 {& _7 L7 Z6 f RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 p- O7 n5 O, A `! L0 Wworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. i9 p2 D1 K1 H9 ], Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, k, h. F6 a0 W$ nsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) ~' a& j" o9 N! i! ]' D The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 h. ~$ v5 r. Z; F& A/ S& G3 U9 ]proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 C- d" _, y' \! l+ Q0 p
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 T7 K: Q" u+ O6 @
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" Q9 N* T3 @+ l$ r" g- `; o. G6 j3 e1 l% Q
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# G9 X9 K* p) X& i; x V$ tthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) V) c6 C7 I, Z9 W& {, e According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, f/ l: W+ } o" P; M
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, A5 }/ k2 H6 q" P! r
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 ^5 E8 k6 C% N4 Ohistorically depressed levels./ g# F" @6 g5 [; ]* j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ L2 }2 O& C) ~. zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! K+ |4 V0 v- ~8 A9 a$ ^, \( Wprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- y5 o' Q& l6 W: n9 g9 J/ V, s
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* s( P, a) O2 [& n% m# U$ R; jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) `# o$ s7 B5 ]% xmonths ahead," added Hogue.
" t9 H1 v0 F! E9 h& { RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ D% \" Y' H9 C/ h0 X9 {cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" X2 }+ f4 Q1 V, V
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 u( p! x$ O; W, l1 o: K* ~ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
g- r3 W# C2 A$ r$ Na broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these. @% O, `( `+ `7 B0 f9 h$ T
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ ~' p* R0 u0 I7 `9 K2 O7 ?takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' w9 g$ c+ f2 W The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ h/ @8 r& N6 C: n: i# Lbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 [* z6 Q9 N3 }4 W0 @ P- qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
6 Q; x' V# ^& g. o8 R4 Uincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 K# W$ j$ Z( S4 _# x- }
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 |) o a" J( _) n3 m* W+ i& YFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ d# B0 U3 Q, [0 S$ t/ M% Ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 b6 J9 ]8 X1 G8 c3 \
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 X7 v7 M2 l S3 h$ N, @/ c( P& ]
% b. T( d0 ^ e& ^
<<
( L3 C6 y' D _ Highlights from across Canada:
" v& ^* M( \1 p* c" @4 v0 ^
( J% Z& j1 k+ x) D - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! e% U8 r; M6 s+ y. d intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
" A- q1 _! D4 l, } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 m; F1 q. {1 |, s( o/ o4 t* E only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 n. Y5 F0 q2 q1 ^9 o9 o, T
since about the middle of 2007.
% G2 d( {( g+ s1 t. A% q7 J+ _6 v/ L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! t9 U/ C. g3 h* U. z- b N frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" i+ Q. |- \, n, ^' Z8 y3 y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) Z" M, I- t4 n/ }% S7 C! f largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 N |* d- B! A$ Y5 w; ]
poor affordability levels.
% p5 i) _& r4 V( y4 T Q0 g* I - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
, w5 _, U/ n' }8 R4 H- ] vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- D/ x! x! s/ z$ q. ?. p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! L; V) y6 e# ~+ o4 Q p+ L
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ a. q1 h0 s: _# Q6 m( Z# R minimize any downside risks.
9 P$ \0 q1 n- l8 [; u* D3 s - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( `, o2 g" i$ Q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* `( u. p$ w% `" Y1 E: G- i# r unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% A- k8 @$ I% Z; D5 v$ y$ R 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 a# o8 Y) Y4 ^+ O# m) ~
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.2 ]3 t* J* [0 a3 i' \* S$ B
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in$ d# g6 O* [2 s3 A4 L; B
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ f8 G( N4 {- d; j6 i6 I& [, B- y far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 V6 z# {- I, U% Y+ `; i: _
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 |! _) N8 P, N
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only% ?$ V' Q5 }! p2 b) R; r& g0 z" k% c5 U
modestly in recent years.8 @4 P1 u- D3 \. y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ r) \& `/ W: I- b/ A1 I* M
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
7 S& _8 l' c# r, Y2 F* O" y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
' k( [6 i! F# x price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 K* S! K; z: F3 L) R/ B1 Q following two years of deterioration.
$ }$ E- w$ C# \7 e/ N8 @3 n >> |
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