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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & c) u. H/ | p7 t, @ Y
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, s! E5 ? M5 D- nmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ C" i& Q$ d I' ogains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
_0 s+ b [2 d6 w! v% Eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 p3 [; B" P$ j/ ? "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"/ k) P$ X9 z! H" O# N0 h4 |
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 C) ^. J( ], y/ u: L- r
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 B6 C3 Y! h* O0 k2 D! P: bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.", N: F8 K; N. l- @6 P$ M5 F* q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# z3 z( H3 c! X, r1 zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing," O/ C c g2 ^2 y# Y5 u. U
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have I6 D+ t9 ]- D7 U; w
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! D8 w3 o# X. z8 c/ n The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ r v4 }+ o: r6 nproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 A& g' ?1 t" }$ [, L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; e5 S- u* c6 D9 ~) P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 c7 i, u X. [( @& |0 u" nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 k2 p7 }! H" Q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.1 n' w5 h7 { e3 w/ n# `' T( H
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
- [4 ?" S1 S% _ x& {" P) Gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, ?3 m4 ]! D* t; j
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' z8 X1 o7 Y t+ nhistorically depressed levels.* u1 ]; c( ?8 X- w5 q" M( `; a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 k7 S1 U8 l: hof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- h( e& F/ E# ?) c R' D+ \) }! xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% R0 Z7 k) o0 @) E* G
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! ^2 V) t3 w( H2 K
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 P1 A. A$ i/ \months ahead," added Hogue.8 ]6 ~, n/ u2 b5 F' \* X
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# C/ v8 F9 n" i) ?
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
' O3 s9 A8 G6 d4 \" ~42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- t; O6 J- A% R9 f) l The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for/ \* c2 g$ b+ i; C9 ^6 T
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ X8 H; q) v1 D: h; }- b' ]/ Rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ o& j _8 k6 ^" \6 ^# U; k
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 {$ |) U7 {* }& U1 Y4 H# v, e. c+ X The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ I5 ^, E6 I7 ~; F8 N9 Obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property, B1 S6 f+ E# z/ [. v% w3 ]
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
O" G0 Z0 b0 ~3 _& ~7 rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: s% \ `: n1 R" ~- \# B
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! Q: Y" t% s, {$ s+ p( t
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership _- B9 U7 | O
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 l% O: \% u1 I( n B* C: Uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, c$ S& e: l7 b! l8 i: Y6 r- X$ P5 v" v
<<' I/ M7 s( d$ m* M- ?2 C" d% ?; v
Highlights from across Canada:$ D# p. y% v7 P. f% `
5 m M. C) R' ]7 h+ \ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ L2 Q$ \( B- t2 | intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing! B6 V8 J4 n. p' k Y
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ o( Y, T4 y6 f* }% F; C
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track+ b+ Z2 I5 d1 D% n) k5 D
since about the middle of 2007.
4 @" J2 T; U: I" p' A - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 `$ ?% ]3 m1 d" Q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
% W* ]1 N) m+ a; V. t" z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still7 f/ L" e5 h$ s: C9 ]( H+ E
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' ~7 n0 ^5 c4 R K H/ \
poor affordability levels.9 @. b5 V& `6 {. L G/ B) n. c
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! O! N: B0 d# ~, U; A; t1 i vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and$ A% Y y1 K) Q5 t% O2 @
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 ?' X3 X* ?! g* G; H8 G
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to z1 D3 ]+ Y# x0 s H
minimize any downside risks.
0 X- x" W" d5 g- r9 K. W - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 `2 _( s( c- ]! P1 t. T# m conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# w0 s" ~; P2 p% |# n) }2 \ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: u' ~1 r2 j/ Q( O; z, _0 p! | 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' \, B2 \$ u; ?' D3 R8 ]" R
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 a: y5 O, h: |2 T* V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 Q l, z% V7 v. c H/ ]9 v
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) w$ a" n% T6 _4 v8 h far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" y2 z6 ^, y, w# r5 Y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ @3 S# v! ^/ r9 h8 ]& _ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only/ f& g* U* G2 f& `
modestly in recent years.
; }; z3 v7 Q2 ~' G1 W - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ b" f( k8 x! @ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 k T" y8 { s! Z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! J. C1 P# N) @" v- c# J- }* x
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 J$ k/ R7 i! |
following two years of deterioration.) _5 }# K5 @; n6 d; p! f
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