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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 E5 s% f: L; w3 y N/ p& X, y
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the! ]0 P2 s9 @2 Q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* v8 d. U. _; R1 r r* x% v; M6 B
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
X6 K( E7 n3 laccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- ?0 e; A2 a5 \3 q1 M
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ }3 P5 O3 [) c; S; Xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
7 k& L3 U# _7 }/ ?! X a/ cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 i+ c- I+ \" ^ `& ~! S6 J2 Nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 }# e) z& @6 C7 U RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
% w) |! |/ j, e9 o* h% e yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% A+ n. y- _" A7 \" y" W1 Z$ E, _which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 z2 n8 n! m4 M7 o1 @! L" W, f# Csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, R1 f* L0 N& P+ e, n* E8 u) |3 b The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 h% z2 Z- F+ U7 f$ c- M2 Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a ] o& X& A7 ~8 M; T
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 F2 N: a" W. M5 P8 T( c2 u5 ?
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the5 F, B8 r8 I, F8 s. x3 u
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- y6 t& @% l; o5 }the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 f# q% s2 g4 l- Q( B4 M" j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 X" B3 s' M) imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' r& j1 V5 m& Q0 M
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 q* e" J7 W+ ^3 C/ n2 Y
historically depressed levels.' }( t5 U) E: T x# j9 ]* O1 ?
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
. |4 Y! ] s( C9 S4 a/ Eof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House- N8 ^, j5 A! V* f
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. W) F. x# Z5 w0 P% A7 nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 i" ?- n! `. ], m( `: Z I: ?, C" senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; {3 w4 H C( {. k7 a# K, s0 a
months ahead," added Hogue.7 j3 \: ?. r, X+ S1 Q( F: L9 m1 }
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
9 \+ u7 c- X# T+ G2 mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 \- W$ y' C/ z) v4 V. g2 t( X+ Z42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 p3 M# ]+ _; D' V: ~ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 r5 |6 g3 M) z M
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- p, @- b: u5 u
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# L- C( c5 T& i, t
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# f' K: \) w" ~" W! s The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ x5 ]; m& V% ~; s* l
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ l* y% ]: i! h- `: e4 Abenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& b8 B& j$ y7 s# g xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' N% M/ a9 }# r# ]; P; {2 E' w- q1 k) r
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) Q# x9 A8 A- gFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 A) S, ]8 r- Q% X9 c- C' }
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* j, E0 S- ], W- H! pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: s+ G; W- ?% u7 ^
9 R, m3 V& p" a# A4 [( ?; u& F <<+ i% `( }$ o* ^7 {; Z( |
Highlights from across Canada:0 u; R& c+ v0 {& L
r. k% F0 X+ M1 U( V6 O
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( B4 Z/ d& \! h4 }( E8 H, `' k
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ q7 b8 q7 e0 a' w& k
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# ~+ \# p6 @& T5 i# b/ D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' Q, ?3 a4 ?- r5 a( G4 O5 n. n
since about the middle of 2007.: v2 W e% C7 Y3 i: ?' {. Q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' \. i/ h% @3 U0 B/ L* s$ q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& Y+ j- s) ?! {3 [) M: W! J decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still+ G" X9 G4 q: d% O: X6 p( w+ F
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 h. J# v& C" s8 I5 @5 Z poor affordability levels.
" N* O( d0 X1 y( g - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ ^7 s, w ?& b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 \0 f: H6 G! ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ i4 O8 O; l! K' ~ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 T4 |" N# c& s- _3 i3 a9 K3 d5 C minimize any downside risks.
; T4 }8 y: A( o4 m* z, M* i! L - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 s( O6 v2 A1 v% g$ m3 Z& u
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 \: d/ q' N$ s2 M. t4 Y% n: F4 i' e1 F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 W/ b2 r3 t$ U# G7 @& q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 \3 L" i8 |9 d5 G% W, f
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 G0 r, x. m) D5 D$ ]! L
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% ^) V% V: }7 A$ B& p Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& H4 ^. {9 e5 O7 G; `
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up) O! i5 ~2 U4 }5 Y0 |4 T5 v4 D
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 L( ]+ q# u! P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
' [' c, n/ Z4 R; ]! R5 r. O modestly in recent years.1 I; K0 E: B5 V" r6 u
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ c% D* c' {+ w7 u% K
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 b9 K, V" w! f( u/ x' G: g spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward. K. i k; l, b$ D- g
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 ?3 }$ y" Y" R, O5 j: k9 v% l following two years of deterioration.
- D& c F) d# Z) Q" Z" G9 D >> |
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