TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
1 Z' c6 K! @: C* E( l" poverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
0 s1 z6 H) m& ?) `By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
+ t7 K% ^' H4 Wtheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
" y2 o$ @; x  uboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
& Z' @1 ~+ i1 t7 V, c6 m. Zto fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
* d, b2 _" V6 m, R+ Athat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
: z  u& R9 g& j# J$ z% G0 hwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
6 d8 V  ~* q4 @3 y“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
2 p" b% W  }2 \homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
5 l) o% u# T$ Q# F, I2 ]on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
& S6 K0 [, U, o, S# c1 L" sremain choppy and new residential construction will be
' z% a' g' k  D( g- s$ jdampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
) |0 e) b( w( K  O/ d; vis now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
7 W8 }- x. J- h8 E% ]0 ^to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
6 B# H8 @' k6 ^125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
. L* ^" ~6 j$ m* [7 n5 {' {1 pin the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
9 T7 I. z, G& y% f1 {! A3 klong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
$ Q* O* Q/ H% A% g# ]5 B3 Wregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
1 \& ?" ?3 t. b* M5 [To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
% }& W# }* [) J, A7 M- b“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
# k' E9 U4 y  R- o: Xwould have occurred if housing had been priced
/ Q% H" [0 U: B/ J- R, uoptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
7 C$ f! O5 n! R5 f) Ofundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
, }$ g, h6 b: t* jmany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
2 {7 i; L9 `- b( r% oRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
3 G4 I5 c7 I4 x' u- N' {where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
3 D8 O' ~: I' k/ vbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
9 ~; L# {9 ^6 y$ K: n6 Thas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
+ y/ w( X( W: C) |7 Q4 Y* ]" ^% k4 C/ aweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
4 s! h6 X7 v( Q0 U' \' WQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
4 U6 b! F7 F2 V9 Egiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
7 ]: t# K9 h. r. ~2 j( `' vcyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
& U0 q3 ^" ~5 |% z$ |4 ~. ^limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
' |; O1 P: k; E' hcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
7 C; u6 B6 P# c% H" Z9 G% qhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
" Q, o0 `( K  q7 u1 {construction mean that record numbers of condos will
$ T7 L6 S5 p0 K3 d8 xreach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
, L. s% K3 T" w8 r6 X% ~! Z( Uspike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
* p2 O. \  ~: @" R& J( X: m  M1 vanticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
7 h8 T( y' G3 K9 G  kinter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
; u& ~2 R  M1 dwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
: X5 m; o$ _5 _! ]OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
1 d9 G# p  w+ J7 u% s416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
6 L; n* T' A/ ~! l5 J7 A416-944-5730
8 z. a( [" K$ c8 l% n3 p
  |& q; g! _6 i6 ^9 T! f3 Z. @, E) whttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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