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No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

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发表于 2008-10-1 08:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.1 L: H" G7 A% z/ H( P9 b8 C

' L( y# l2 I6 J2 G# w+ R+ B0 X/ S# DIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.2 w8 r& M# U0 j! G+ o; |

/ A* Q: @5 m' N! V, C) u& g"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."& ?4 p  K' h. i

- l, r3 J; ~! SAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.( o! [) C! v# q+ C
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"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.7 e! W4 T5 A& `( [
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"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."7 D/ ]9 J7 P$ ?% S% s

0 T% T/ V1 a+ D' y$ m& fSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.  B& \/ }" \9 v2 r6 j; y* @

# z0 {% [3 i8 q7 |: l8 GTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.5 ~: E9 R3 L6 E" ]9 B) ~4 I9 J

# A6 A) r: v4 n/ O) N7 h"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."3 U* r, j  Y  j' B
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当然,历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉,现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
' d$ j9 d5 f' P5 `* d看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦,没看到,抱歉。2 p3 W5 u: ^4 l- b
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[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]
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