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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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$ e0 E. J; M0 y. Q4 P+ ]( ^) H- X+ {Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat I9 E6 Z( Q0 z/ @* ?$ p
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US& D' s! G, x" m; Z( Y9 L3 n! e" L
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern2 f2 c2 ^$ \: u" P
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging, j: E1 T2 I/ c% F, c, W% ~
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)& `8 p0 H7 D/ g; A/ l( E7 G
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more4 ^( [/ n3 X# h" y( x
upbeat.6 J$ n3 W5 ~; l, w9 A
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded, N5 \/ K+ p; T% b y: L t
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects. A; V- y' t' y! s- l" f9 X
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
. p! p0 g9 o. _% O; M- Jestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
1 `( R2 y: f; X% o- s) W9 W9 I+ frepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
! Z% }0 l. I+ m, E% H9 ~Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world: L9 B& o% [# X; E& H
including Asia Pacific and Europe.! D( m5 k% w2 f- K% V! e- C; }
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian( }* x. j' Y+ f5 f+ B/ Q
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
) l) T4 o2 k: Renvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
, @! V0 K; x2 N5 G Tbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
" \ I+ Q& B2 g, c2 i" c2 p& Nhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.", ?9 I& u( U0 B6 Y8 l0 V
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the3 q: p. ~" m7 v6 U
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game- @ { X1 Y# M. Y
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey. _: B3 r( B4 p$ A6 F$ N
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
# j) H" L# [3 @# H) |9 ?correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
2 [4 `: I% J& Rvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.* A( p; l# K" K- {- N% D
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
3 ]" ] R) ^/ n" ]7 R+ y) krespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
* k: q% g; r# t8 w0 T, y) pcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
. A5 w/ X; c9 u }9 Tdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
$ V2 B+ c" T* zespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating- |" I+ m2 A( b+ E+ p) X2 C
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The! x8 M' e' g0 V7 _. B
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
2 V' V( d6 h6 {$ Z/ wtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and: ~( i* k7 g b' s
single-family housing looks overpriced. R; m3 g% F* E# J
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with9 W |* J4 o" M; i9 H P3 q$ g
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
5 _: g4 n* N9 Emetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
' O4 d3 E* |& r: O/ khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
3 y% P" B! }8 }3 X% @! Cnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,. A" ^5 T5 b+ J+ V
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental! V% W, v6 t$ i0 M- L/ l4 D$ G% B
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
4 Y; }+ }) ^$ E; @western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
6 c8 @: F3 t( N. J; z7 lshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
8 g6 j! X( b$ Jthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development8 S8 E8 s' R; d/ V2 p
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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& k- @3 N) X$ f7 s: R2 } The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, a, E* V& C3 t" wcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour, |! i, o; ]& U- D, ~8 H7 p: ^
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) p$ W5 j; [) w, ?* ~6 ainto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
/ }. ?9 t+ E% [# L3 [7 l" gdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
3 }/ k0 Z! U5 ?2 m0 Q) pprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out" H" B$ v8 j8 M1 A { a
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
3 Y, a6 p2 u, a; V2 R1 n# Xprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
4 |2 R8 v/ g: T1 }, ?whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
8 O3 H8 y' l/ m" W8 ZToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
) v' h$ j! V/ ]4 ]ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.1 L1 r9 V" y# {
4 z' U! v0 X) M, [+ v7 D
Calgary/Edmonton8 H+ Z! B# n( }7 h8 G
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
' K) T& _4 m# J$ B5 X. D/ mboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a: o- [- [; G! H# i
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
. W7 t" d4 m: R+ ]: \6 E$ Y48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.& u% {/ ~# Y, v5 ^* h7 {+ i
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale* X9 U3 F- T5 V" T2 D* \% d
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the6 j6 b5 T+ }, e& ?$ ?* c% M
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
1 Z- i# Q' R; n: G# w3 A. estrong, this market will continue to do well.5 X7 K( \2 V" u. X& Y
+ b) Y; J) f$ \6 y2 D! |4 L
Vancouver$ s! \- Z) [4 |6 N9 p
9 y9 ^9 r+ h$ M5 x Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is1 v9 J% F: [+ o ?+ ~/ M- L! D
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous# b* D1 k! {2 e: R0 J5 c
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the# R$ c0 v& i2 O6 b8 S6 Q; p
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a( B3 Q0 S! f% [
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
& P. h$ }! F. c3 |9 L8 B" G4 Urecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
" T5 S8 t1 o% L0 R$ Ifor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%* |( B) a9 l9 q4 ^
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very m% Q7 M3 x8 M9 ]9 d5 l: o
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
: [. \; ^* D. O5 k" J, b: i8 q8 w" m" A" h% K3 u5 Q
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and" [% n% ~5 r/ Y; I
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
- S1 A$ j* g0 J' @0 srelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
! ^3 }1 E' C E+ l6 w Xindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
2 e; r8 G6 Y! x& L E5 pThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
) h, _" i @$ K$ b. hfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and, r+ E$ S! x3 D6 [. G
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.; Y8 \6 X+ v" n2 B9 |/ n; e
0 n ^7 c8 H& d& P/ h$ s Montreal8 D8 U/ i( e6 Z& X& T; U
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall V, _$ v( w4 t: B$ j1 R) N
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
4 g6 ~. {9 d" O) e/ O( P/ ishop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in# A8 u3 j, r3 T, I( n( e
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate# H5 ]6 I) V% Z4 Q4 l# b4 ~
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors' G" ~9 G/ F" ]+ P
higher as a "hold" recommendation./ p: e* A, ~5 u
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years; i5 g' c( {# q4 H
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy' h* g* s, [# z$ @: N
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
. _. t7 D$ n1 a: rnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest# i% U/ t' \: }+ v7 u3 C' B+ G
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current s( D. X: R8 S8 \* x% W5 a" i
prices."0 _6 S" j$ m/ J& K/ V5 E% O
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
8 i; v3 `' R6 J8 t6 Q" l. Jwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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; ]" p& N K7 y% @& |" g About PricewaterhouseCoopers* {6 M; `3 q, S3 O$ |
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,* O" ] I: }* N- A
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
, v, i# {3 {3 j8 u* V. x+ C! Fclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
2 N+ @" U) c% r7 u, jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop( F9 P2 ?2 x: T! B6 C2 h6 t
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of5 Y3 \; B6 `" }1 T" }% h
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its% Y a! b3 k; A
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the$ Z& J3 I9 b1 I) K
country.& J7 c+ E6 @. E0 w( v, R1 l
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario: J( c0 |- l" B* L9 ~" G& c3 Z
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
8 J, p O4 @$ H+ w! ?( @4 ~; U) X- JPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
4 U# v3 A. u5 E) E. Meach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' ]7 }6 _: B- d) x3 E2 t% ~6 Q! l+ ~
* S$ [8 a" \2 t7 I5 P
About the Urban Land Institute' s4 l6 }. n$ s" Y
+ c R3 `& \2 A6 ^" {3 W) g$ w, }, g. ^ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and" Y( I5 p' g- @) q, r: w) j
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
! J+ L: n. \5 G. C! Ileadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating4 ^) H" ` O8 ]; e5 v% ?
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
& @+ V, y6 b( W9 D- V; P! Athan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development% {% ~& |* R0 O$ e5 @$ @
disciplines.
& j; n5 _) L k4 J& x. v The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.8 @- `" B$ r/ \2 C& I
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District. o* a- Y& w7 g1 u
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is0 A$ `1 Y( d1 g* n
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
( q1 k: C7 |" N& G0 `hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,. P$ J/ y5 ^3 J5 z% a
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 ?+ ^4 q! Q9 x" P; `
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,/ ]2 V( q7 }: V8 P
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
5 \: T- F T: `+ i: w$ ?call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on% e6 p7 Q& Q! q4 M# F
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 e& l O- R' Z2 M1 L
$ n N$ A e" R' P2 z0 u. |) L
; t6 w' K6 s' l3 S+ w2 R- h3 A1 P" B( @- Q4 }7 R6 z6 x; T8 t% q
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, H2 L* ]3 _) a4 F/ v0 k! a
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
6 T& t- X; n2 x# vhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html" K- q9 }/ a# R8 ?8 t
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