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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ' W# f* g8 H" t$ e# H
1 `" C& o, Z) X$ H1 e8 qDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
s$ [3 @& R# D/ F- G TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
! v( Z; D4 {7 Z! K1 r+ I: Fcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
* I8 ?4 V; u/ T; R- _) S0 A$ N- _; Tas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
: t0 U/ [9 t% yTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
: _" `; y! N) u+ A4 u" j3 Wand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
* M3 E# [% v9 c" U8 _& dupbeat.
; N4 x$ U }; I) ^! v% V9 Q" S' \ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded8 @% | m" X. c8 r% s' h, v
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects1 Z5 j6 z2 ?8 ]# A# H" ~
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
3 J1 [8 c3 N# V3 S: w4 Festate experts, including investors, developers, property company6 u' _+ G6 Q, ?1 }0 F, a8 B$ e
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
* u" w- @7 M$ @" l8 F7 A1 fOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
" y! ~6 s+ _, k/ |* Fincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.& P! Q @" ]* D- E: O. M) J" x
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ s3 c* {4 K& _. H4 N5 I% y
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
* ^3 F1 e9 J2 Genvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
6 ~7 E4 Z3 s3 _5 }5 E- |be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record; N; r' u+ J7 x* s) ^- X i1 |/ O8 {
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."2 z; F' M6 H; U8 U4 x6 y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the" b: E s2 o& w
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
$ ^- g) S0 C0 w# U! sspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey& k( N+ V; D0 X* l
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US3 a8 A7 E4 \" V8 b6 l2 R
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
& _& f+ Q' W. P' B5 Z6 `very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.( k9 d1 ^4 a; p b$ d
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
/ ?/ I5 Z& j* ^3 r( ]( w( l( Q1 yrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
7 V K& { h; X* J7 c5 g! C- xcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! d; A5 Q& K) ?- ] Ldevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country) P7 Y- t+ E+ D3 ^/ n' |" Y$ I! v4 _
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
, i' x0 A/ S8 Y$ W. Zdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The" _5 R }2 q {" ^: D& k; T6 n9 @
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to- v& C4 ]: L' o$ I3 k5 W2 P5 y2 G
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and5 T: w/ L' C/ P8 k
single-family housing looks overpriced.
) m9 K( q. E. A& u+ I% S8 Q+ n2 J Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
3 N) T: o4 @: U8 \tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian. d; C3 S& x0 g
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push7 l! h( C7 ~* V. p
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting: {3 ?( }, t+ v4 \1 I
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
" m- U& i% `8 R2 Nand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
! m1 |- d- V' {* R' D2 ?* qapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
* L+ |( I0 h+ y M4 z; lwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
: N w- r0 S- Q( Yshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
, D Y% [8 H# K3 d- P( p9 kthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development: ]# G& ~0 g- ?
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.$ E' M: M) g4 j1 m5 Q8 A9 j( b
: J4 v' Z" s& ~% b. A
Canadian Markets to Watch) o5 }/ f' ?8 b4 Q$ A3 T
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central+ Q) k: H" C+ Q
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
5 K! t* R: ?4 cneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back6 o+ c" U# @" p0 ]" p% }
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
. |* V2 O4 @) K- S+ ]8 }downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
* R1 {2 a& }1 [; \/ @4 R1 L9 ]projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
8 u" X+ m% i9 \ m8 Twest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment4 v8 f; F$ k( ~! k( g
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
6 l) }0 P9 L0 n4 Twhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.% T' W* w8 M, ^( b. E
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
4 c7 r6 M3 M: U0 y; Uratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
4 M4 h, v x, x7 X! ~, D j6 R
j' G! s+ c2 Y3 } R Calgary/Edmonton
8 M) O1 F& \% A! H) m: o0 p L O$ R% P5 B
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one3 y* I0 s, J3 O; N1 B
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
4 s$ ~( N8 L2 z- X" C3 ^' Fbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
- a# u9 o$ o3 U; H/ B: R8 i48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.( p% E$ L9 F/ `
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
. d" Y- ~+ `* y! f0 m7 R. z( T, CHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the% \5 O( n2 I/ S# L+ p
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
& r# I6 o% G/ o1 z" n, Xstrong, this market will continue to do well.5 _7 ^/ p/ h, k' E
7 `7 V3 |6 `$ h. a% @
Vancouver
9 q# {6 K/ W/ ^# J$ j6 m+ V* [( ?+ k i. T$ H1 r% V9 v) p
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is0 S- a# z! q+ d9 e, K
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous J! |' k5 t5 D
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the* C% x2 O0 N+ l7 X: Q
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
K9 W# b1 S4 T5 \, E+ R. I3 L- W* ]( xgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
& y* n& h R6 orecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
6 O. W! J$ R# ]" H% `7 x4 Ifor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
3 X" p* w5 U c+ k* g, ifor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
" f) o! w1 s, U2 m) fgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.3 _! p# J/ h4 B$ T
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Toronto) R. \6 J+ R* W( r% @$ i
; }9 o: q0 z+ q! V* P Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
2 t* U+ p2 C9 @: L/ T: I9 X$ tmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" [ R6 x1 ^9 ^# c: g4 Qrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
! g9 O. ?8 c( m- l1 o& ^$ aindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
: e) p ?! [: M. ~Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 x' W" U! n& J% O
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
Q7 S1 h, N5 G( a; Q" oApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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/ l) U7 _) Z6 }6 {2 Y* ^4 P0 L0 Q7 [ Montreal
- ~; K7 ^- k" M" D7 r5 o
) L8 D9 k- S/ V( E, V Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall8 [5 W3 g, ^7 y' O
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
4 @7 n6 m% r2 C8 p/ ]4 ~shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in% B& p5 w/ p0 K3 t$ H
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate- j4 t3 |5 b7 z* q8 r4 x
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors/ d O+ f( z$ e/ p
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
7 }7 |4 l. A! h, Xinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
) b4 _# y& S* M( o1 V8 ]! M8 F; jmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos+ S I& V" O5 b5 J2 [# u* L! Z* n
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; r. ^( r# `, K# E
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
% K9 P, w! d$ Y1 m! L4 J, hprices."! g/ q9 K. a8 [0 B' V: {/ I4 `
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at$ d, H7 F0 r' z* M8 |& \$ n
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers$ h6 s3 w3 ]1 h5 |
8 p1 E. x! T6 f3 k PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
: N! R) @9 h/ e2 ~' B1 k4 |2 |tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its+ _' X* H. j U# ]! M
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries8 ^0 k8 _- q$ F; A7 I( r/ T# T. S W# x
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
3 _4 o( H" _5 w/ y9 B2 Gfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of% u4 A. R& n5 M- [3 k
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
$ {/ \3 @7 L+ v$ u0 E. A) trelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
+ H( O' U5 W3 d; @' O8 \' m- v' zcountry.4 R5 i |( F4 J' M! e
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario! K1 R7 K2 T; C% p& h6 b
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
4 M; Q* f1 Q- N, h6 Y4 E1 IPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
% s- g& m- X( C8 X- `! m+ J" v+ heach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' X; N Q& V& h" v, G6 B
2 y/ `- E! z+ @! ? About the Urban Land Institute" N1 l9 M7 |0 I. K. o, @
5 J1 a @8 C- E: N, |( { The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and, z+ E$ X/ P( e E
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide1 U* o: Q9 z$ S/ ^5 b
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
3 d) D( [5 X# c# Ethriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
8 s3 v# u* u5 d* @) z# r% `than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
( z# T$ u( `8 }1 m! Q [% Zdisciplines.
! o* y5 _7 K7 G) S, N9 U The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.% C+ w# ~; V. ?3 [% Q
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
$ [/ N$ }+ k) Y6 vCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
. p) v" R0 A8 [" gnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
* n4 m0 v# W0 q. [' }) u! Z% U, Q8 ahosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
, x! n$ I3 U x# W2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' D, c5 T1 y7 o& A+ p0 V" G* N( [, FHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,& n: x8 p7 d# k+ q! W( ]9 Y, Z
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please6 Q4 z2 Y1 i, R9 }7 n
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
/ W! O7 z) u" L% \the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.1 B4 A' m" b( V& m& v" K) b
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- u7 X$ t6 g# M" D) pFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,- u: B* [& V5 a7 x
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com# W5 k/ r5 w4 c0 |, @# d* s
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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& \, B& q, @. k. ^[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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