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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 1 r* m' m" N J
`9 N$ q2 g% H" u" {& MDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat & @' s8 B/ D9 Y, }* h) n
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US+ p- X; b2 q% e o6 ]7 u) m! g
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern1 {" e5 u1 r5 v
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
0 b: x1 i4 y) P0 Y* OTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)& U6 z# ~- G( ^9 X
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more& H8 ?! d N1 v: w
upbeat.% _# E5 b0 Q2 y/ p9 U& |3 m
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded+ [$ }; ] s, s0 C
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
9 y0 t5 ^( _9 X4 I, ~7 l9 Kinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
# L6 r# j* T* Eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company p- }1 N. V* c+ I/ y% Z6 ?6 L
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
u; V/ M( `. J% E. { S6 `Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
! K* K( A* t- nincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.) C6 L+ A5 Y: l/ j# b- k% {/ k
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian0 D! V! S/ r# D: z
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment8 e; @3 x' f) O9 O+ G! q
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
, \+ Q; Y D. C! E! P0 ?: Cbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
$ ~# L6 u7 X5 |/ C" s* }4 t' z1 y! Ahighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
* U4 D" v+ S6 O3 i6 s' L5 q. v According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the! j/ C# n E8 D0 w* `/ e
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& G9 h" P) {4 w' tspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey8 \% O l2 @3 W, u5 _- Z, ~, v
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US8 K( I6 N0 `- r
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be5 f% N* Z$ s5 H- O. E# J( p" b
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.6 F9 o7 F! _5 V& R5 Y6 J
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian) D, N9 a) C5 k8 d# D6 s, A0 r; f
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
7 \9 ]4 o! Y% ^' A' Icommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land' f% V5 d1 j6 }( X) `1 E6 K$ Q( D/ W: X8 {
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country; m& W9 F+ k; P5 a) l
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
- _/ ?) I1 D0 ` `7 t3 Adevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The! b& c3 X+ V$ D8 M$ G4 l2 k% B+ U- G
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
4 J7 c; W6 [/ r+ z1 Wtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
( ]$ P2 x9 x5 ~- Z' o9 d$ {: H% rsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
: p6 x$ Z3 G# B5 \0 t8 u2 { Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with! A% @4 F1 W0 B5 P. j
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian+ O) y% U( f6 ?/ s( Z% x+ P) K
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
" B% U2 u7 w7 V. N) d& Q, S+ dhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 R$ f5 j5 O1 J# y) y+ Xnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,. _2 r+ i- _, {7 N' o# s6 O
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental, d, m+ s* E* w: C7 g
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) V2 i! h. s3 [) {3 k8 zwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
1 ^* _: j% P- bshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
" _5 l8 e5 [% g( n! H H; Vthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development, s8 Y, O: e& F6 @. [1 `' l
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.* A: B4 G. o$ Y* [7 z
$ E3 \; L Z( [. B' |/ m; K Canadian Markets to Watch% ?$ |) g! z/ I/ S8 G+ Z3 A
9 F7 f4 z8 e3 Q The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central o4 W# _7 D( q
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
; M: F: R& s! ], ]neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back) H0 p8 v: M! Q3 q( g, n4 c
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in# a, l2 X4 `6 g/ \) H( k' \6 c+ @
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical6 N! C; `$ T- b
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
( F+ g" E$ R: ~& Xwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
& g4 m% F/ }! B l. `prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain; y' {* u' N E2 H
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
; l& l- |$ Z$ c' {+ R# yToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high5 H% d! t. |$ v _
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
% l# ]0 s3 p G3 y, w5 M
$ E j V3 V& N1 g Calgary/Edmonton) s; [% R ~ Z# l8 D
1 N: x: J; }3 G) C% B5 N6 X6 p
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one- G2 @. e$ y9 a" M& F6 X- I
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
* G5 O* n0 P' I6 I3 N4 tbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
9 W: x7 r/ H, h- y$ @+ {48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
1 \; y7 s' P: l5 S5 rFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale! l+ e5 s) @" x. T$ D3 ^9 f9 `2 y
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
% Z" I& J* z* U& u% J6 {Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
5 w+ m' _$ p8 K2 v% xstrong, this market will continue to do well., ~ J& h8 {3 z1 b( v6 Q' u% ^
( ]7 L6 F _0 U- U6 y9 h* T Vancouver
% @, D, i+ B2 ^# u! V5 M/ _
$ ]* C( g8 K* z* b7 n Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is0 h% I: r" }9 ~+ k9 z) T* z
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
7 s) t; v9 `7 |% W# A& N2 ^3 @real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
/ ` K$ {0 ~' Y; u4 a* R2 j& ?( omarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
9 \& j" ]* j h0 k# e+ h5 u- hgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy/ q; o# B: b) e1 P# M5 z3 e
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%$ b# k# `% y; z T) y
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
" v, s( W0 M, Z( T: Z0 D" i2 V, cfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
1 ?% W2 t4 [4 _; I8 A z) jgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.2 z8 g- N; H+ d5 H* L! B' h% f
, n. `9 r3 L2 j0 z# C7 y
Toronto
5 w2 [3 ^: V. H# L1 [. W9 [8 \) I5 d- ~( h
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and$ [9 W' I8 K) x9 F; r8 N
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
) q* z/ E7 @3 \relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing& Q- f% I S, y& V. ^
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
( r; ~6 H$ z5 G; }Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
$ T* Q d! I9 U/ `feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and6 I$ ~; Q/ R7 h& T9 g
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
9 ^) r, \. _, O$ N& u/ a2 l5 V% }; r8 C+ c& x; Y+ F" F0 S; }
Montreal
* q( E0 A8 Q: e @- e2 ^" u' r& K+ C' ]! U1 S. O8 j
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. U& Z3 |6 s8 l. f4 Zgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
# R6 G5 Z7 Q" ^9 u) _* kshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in0 b: e" M# c; r& d# g8 e. {+ ^
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
4 \0 C) C" j& p% Vsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors& t* E0 L( ]! r# n% w# x
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
% f- m* t0 ~# \( f& Q" z# |
; }- j9 E) \9 x5 [ The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years, C) z2 n" y3 ]1 X$ r1 W
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy$ m; C' m2 ^8 s, U' N4 U; h9 ]
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos0 f5 [# A, B' n9 n
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest' A. Q, ^# h( ]# e
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
0 h6 y% x* Q M0 eprices."
5 B0 I3 h! u0 g. i+ ]6 \ A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
6 y8 Q" `$ q1 s) C8 p2 B& h- Nwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
$ v7 p6 U% B7 ~& ?- t8 o ^
2 P0 K" J! B. Z$ }! r$ | ^- _- h About PricewaterhouseCoopers6 @- ?6 `' k& x* V4 t1 |1 G3 x" P
& ?' E6 n* p k
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
! A% ] Y. q/ G1 m$ {tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its' H- H4 C( V: r2 ?7 H' P. E
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
- T" R1 J+ u V: J9 _2 Q3 nacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
- p; m+ Z* A2 t& S1 `6 I7 `fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of/ l! t2 m6 F4 |
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its9 w3 A& R! v. ?$ l$ s) o# S
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the+ S8 e" L, R- L m8 ?% Z5 _ a
country.% ?& |: z$ R/ J0 E% L6 P8 Z& k
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* f+ R: g& Z/ r* Vlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the" D5 q/ x' \2 b* I# U6 V9 v
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
& ?/ w& m/ N8 `each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.9 S! H0 X+ i5 t7 t
5 p: v% S2 m9 q1 v0 ^$ g About the Urban Land Institute0 } d( y" S+ i: v: N
6 S6 C) Z+ P6 X T$ @& ~ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and! B2 m8 I8 R' g6 Z+ o7 m7 B
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide1 C- u+ l- Q; V' y" L4 |6 O
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating& K" C; }0 z' ~- Y0 T& z
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
% ?; p, l" q- t; {than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
! z6 n# H8 j0 ^) Cdisciplines.
2 P9 ~0 @" V+ {& _% V3 M The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
* p4 ]: o+ B1 R9 q* m5 b+ VWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
* X" j7 W m4 L- q4 fCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is+ L) V+ p- L9 d/ N
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
0 B! c |* i) N6 t0 W0 Vhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,# X. I6 P! L8 n5 u; f
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake. |; ]/ g( D) [' ]
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,: y- T, y8 p1 t# A& ^
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please' H7 R3 b8 K s6 u' L) p! g+ L/ }
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
6 o# E' M5 u0 Q5 `the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066. @% b' |7 O% F) d' p. j0 q, b
' {9 G5 R+ N7 H* z. u) R4 p# l+ }5 L% M9 h+ a6 T0 m4 L1 g
1 d; d ?1 ^7 ?* E' a
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
]. `, e! m9 }+ _- ]6 Y' \(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
: W8 e6 V+ C. zhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
! H( s, ~, H6 y) C' x% d% G9 ~$ E8 ]7 S3 l3 M* t7 c; U
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