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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ; ]4 y, G$ ~) H
1 Z+ e4 v! D/ ?Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 5 l' i& J& V/ p; m" \
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
5 D- L: H) k+ G0 W7 e0 c( y4 jcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
; {* ]) l5 X# ~0 Sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging3 s8 w3 r* d* a3 U
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 } ^; U4 Y# l# e6 G2 }% \and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
+ V; c$ }* O" W E. }7 Y. E2 q8 Jupbeat.$ B: [) \& ]; s, ?
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded/ M4 ?7 \5 A1 v: [: z6 Y: z; d
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
' O1 c7 T, k B, q" Qinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real% M& O" B' q1 Z& l2 y7 j$ M8 B
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company9 A$ v& O. U' F; U$ k
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
) i7 D ?, q5 L4 d* w: ?: p3 i' k/ MOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world) K6 `* B# A, g; B
including Asia Pacific and Europe., ~3 B! M5 ?) _* ^2 W, a# z8 T* @
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian/ C/ h! q3 j! u+ R2 e' L- V
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment; H* z+ o: s' r( m5 X
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
7 F; w# O2 o; x6 ?7 b! Obe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record8 e. {2 J) d& i: U; C1 W# y. Y8 `
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."' p q; e7 u/ O$ t- m
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
' A) |3 w% o* s% x/ |border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game6 F' {+ d5 H4 B3 s
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
& d0 M4 y8 S& `# L& }9 tremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; E" ~: B; m5 G7 Z s% _correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
- U' M8 o& F0 o j9 \+ r# Zvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
t+ |' K+ R3 B5 a0 \ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian- N. F. j5 k' d$ i6 l
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
# f# i$ E7 e$ b( @commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
% w/ ~2 `8 P, mdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
( U0 o! L# K: L9 h2 b* zespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
/ p' T( J& Z; P9 Odevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
# D. E' f, o5 i; m: L+ Bresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
* x3 ?" `. }: L |" ~take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and2 q& z# W+ K: s
single-family housing looks overpriced., G' g( u4 o/ W7 m. g; I7 E
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
, X! P8 Y9 N7 H) i0 z( b& ?3 ytenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian2 E/ D3 y" @- |, ~( |
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push, ~. I$ _* E' C) K" t8 o; M
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting4 o# c& G) J/ u: U# s) G3 r
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
! P0 K' D* p" o$ D8 N: Iand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
+ r4 C4 U2 o- M9 z0 `! |apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary' I- a* R+ p+ J! r, p: O) M# f
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing. T, n. q! k& U5 T' c
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into& M) i7 t& Z1 e4 y1 Y
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
: @2 v; e' ~3 }5 I( Yin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.( a, ~* Z6 O B& D0 V" L7 L
$ f) x; @2 K4 C8 g Canadian Markets to Watch7 m" b0 Z, L+ {
3 K& T9 F4 b( u4 C The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central/ w, i0 P6 V" l# [
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour) X+ R7 N4 F B8 e/ G
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
3 c! l* ~- {1 w2 winto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
, A7 Z8 b, C; j4 h( s: i( h9 Odowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
5 R/ I$ w4 ~, q, b: }9 y) o/ g$ Oprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
. z$ [+ w8 `4 e! \west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
9 ?) W. [* U8 h( F6 R s7 rprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain# |* P" o1 l1 f+ P$ m3 }
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.5 e+ U% n+ F2 x; H S
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
/ F6 M. {6 m% D& x6 |- u; Oratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton* f3 F4 T% Y* J4 v" J) W
4 p( \+ m8 n* O0 S' s& ^& f! N4 ] Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
$ I1 T: |! `2 \' ]* e0 e6 a! m/ Z9 fboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
( x& \; e) ~5 l/ hbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
7 l" l/ W1 Z0 F- U1 u48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
, J- S2 q! m3 @: YFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
* ?; d5 G9 J: B# ]& a6 |5 rHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
6 W& t9 |9 t0 eCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
3 W( F9 y* D( sstrong, this market will continue to do well.6 p/ Q& l5 K1 g* J6 M. F
1 G% ~* z5 k z. c Vancouver3 O3 O& N; z( v0 F9 g
6 G4 }- l/ e5 M Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is$ o9 b5 ^+ H! A
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous- E4 ]& C6 d4 p4 P( k2 c
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the/ |' b- f$ o% S2 O
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a6 o; T! W" Y6 I7 H
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
5 j# X! e6 [# K, ?# g3 t8 `! arecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%4 K3 N- x$ S" r/ r, b
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%0 c/ D2 \: j/ ~% ~# U' n% w! Y
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very* S: ^0 M2 I$ T3 d
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
3 o k' w5 E. I3 [$ k6 w5 D- C7 c0 z: v# J e# {
Toronto
% c/ G1 n T; f8 ~' p3 h
. Z9 a" A( g _+ l- Z' J Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and. {, Z; e8 V3 z
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is* N( d: z! K6 X+ h# ] x
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; p& f$ @% X% Z2 t7 x3 [: g
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
+ `/ s+ s. d" r) x1 m. \' oThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square& ]2 f; E4 p4 {2 e% B
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) W# S; z4 d- O# g! ]. sApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.. \; j! w6 o% @! q4 R
4 Q, \; k. j. b0 o' j, |# S& f
Montreal$ f) |* e3 f& H* v5 {+ A
. b6 |) C/ Q7 G. G+ c Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
$ Q, D- C% T9 ~. m1 U$ F! bgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up* S+ y$ Y7 V' S' m* y" Q! i
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in& N2 o# I1 Y8 r- Z! Q V
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate6 r, ?- B4 K4 z9 s5 E# y' _
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
- E" x# d6 i8 a y8 V Ihigher as a "hold" recommendation.
* H. O) H1 o+ A8 h* p- v/ \& h% o! ]& h, w5 i! r( i1 E; K
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years: b% @( B; i7 x5 |' E% Z U
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy7 R j0 C0 {2 I) d P0 o5 H
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos" z" s5 _. c: K- i( I9 W; J
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
; F. x3 W% G! ~) I! C8 @. _overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current' g2 v' p3 m$ _; U
prices.") B: t3 l: [: c/ o9 A
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at5 Z! Z0 _$ g6 E* ?
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.: D4 p% { B+ }/ u' v: [
* D# @, m8 p# |, C
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
6 X! o: d1 x: d9 j
! ?5 V* y7 {& \! L PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,3 `7 l6 V8 ~- f0 e0 b. L1 p
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its: Q7 p- n0 `; ^$ G! V9 S1 |8 `' o
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
9 s1 D: W; z+ D5 e# Xacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
/ ^9 E1 v; A( x1 a" e& n) T+ pfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of* d4 c8 i. z3 ~
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its/ o# J) E# z: B$ }3 f! Q
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the' Q% o i$ s3 G, t# h: J3 M! K
country.$ l4 h( ~3 F& o
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* A* u7 b7 G# |& S4 zlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
1 R& d2 }1 b4 @( p4 K, p; ^4 DPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
. G+ T7 J3 l Y8 W s" z2 w9 leach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.8 _2 v" {- X. J' j$ a9 @3 T
: \8 z3 S( b0 ?' A7 f3 b
About the Urban Land Institute( M- T. l1 D) n" g
7 q8 r1 r: Y8 F- x9 A
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
- v' V3 R4 {$ [6 R" ]8 d/ n$ y, |research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
: S$ f/ \: X" P) X3 t# N* i$ V5 uleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating* [1 t& z4 h7 k; K% M. i* c
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more: J+ J$ d" J& ^; a! y0 @
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development: z$ T! W+ R- D, j) Y% l0 E/ Q) c
disciplines.) o0 t, V( }' m- {$ L
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
9 F- V6 ~: z' U: @5 I/ J( LWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
8 k6 a) d2 K U& p7 FCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; ^1 B! \- L5 W' [- dnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be8 V, ?$ q* M V, `7 e& q
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
' o2 Q' `1 o9 j. p2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
4 Z. z6 J& ?0 p; }Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,! f: t+ c ?+ V+ b- R( `% u
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please4 o# V) ]( \/ g: z `
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on: L0 |( _) Y0 E( Q* \6 ?3 c
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
( ~3 W/ C% ^* X4 `1 D! h* p# |! Z
2 @2 G7 B$ V8 n, |( z
6 I' b. n$ W$ j7 p1 iFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
' B# U/ q8 a/ g+ c, H/ O$ N(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
+ H4 z- l7 Z1 Thttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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