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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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|) X. _ O8 O0 @, T: A6 Z) w1 oDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 7 x! \+ v, n$ g
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US: s7 |3 j0 {: M- H
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
! F* T% A9 f- Q9 n$ `) m; eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
9 E( D) L5 z' H O( }Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)+ n# s; ]+ E6 B4 ?1 X: Q
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more4 E6 p9 b( r0 h9 l6 G
upbeat.. |3 N9 l# x; A5 f/ @0 H0 I' b2 }8 D" h
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded# |9 r* X' |7 e4 K9 c
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects; _; m, a5 \' B
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
4 \' y& k0 n) Y6 N8 d+ o+ C# w/ iestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
6 M3 v0 s$ M; h, w" brepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.1 u2 \, i$ z% v: z
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world j+ U0 D" o, |, d) G8 M2 \
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
7 p+ j* }$ q' ~. Y3 N According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
- Q+ P% J. b- @9 [9 S/ N& Z2 \4 o9 yReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment) M. _2 c" o2 N/ |( w" p' v& P
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 _: C N, @+ W9 G
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
, M- P3 F+ [0 B7 _2 Z3 ^highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
; f, M# ?5 D! E/ D" f: d# _8 \ s According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the9 Z" K9 o( p- @' O/ O
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
/ c: v# U/ G1 t9 uspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey5 S+ k, a$ E% B7 f
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US7 e& o" A, P8 s- w- z, [# L& l
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be- Y4 s7 J3 N2 q7 _
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.. I/ U7 f# v. _
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian! m% F5 Y! w2 Y; E3 u+ ]2 ^
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by4 |$ q$ F) l6 f9 A9 a- V' t
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
3 U( K5 v4 u+ G, B2 H9 w3 Y7 H- xdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country8 r' v0 F8 C( p2 L1 e) o
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
, I7 n9 H# r0 ldevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The, d5 W7 r9 W, `1 s2 c3 D
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
4 F4 v* o3 P5 _take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
7 N7 s+ d; k. T! ?single-family housing looks overpriced.
( p6 r7 z7 m2 X" R8 X4 {3 ]1 o Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with0 [4 f4 p& p& o2 D
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian' B. B% v7 Y4 x0 C1 D1 t/ F7 y
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
8 x4 y4 L3 W9 ~ v0 W, Mhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
0 k2 F2 A, Y" L- f" }: unew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,/ m4 M; B. |( p$ z. B
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
/ D1 l7 R0 c4 H4 w, B& Uapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
2 S! j9 |* Q- `: t- R) K: P4 lwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
; }+ a) L# ^5 m X8 Ishortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into9 s' t" l9 n0 n1 S+ K- i
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development9 K) \& L$ y m" _& K1 r" D
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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% @2 z6 k9 R3 A* f/ A" ]: c! `3 J Canadian Markets to Watch6 L% Q( J7 f- N
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
8 c m5 p; K" I e# [8 Ucities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour0 X8 `6 Y# M5 I, Z+ Q- C
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
1 B7 A; i3 W- [2 Einto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in* p% _$ g s, l1 Y. W8 @7 ?! H
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical# r0 E9 K* m7 P3 _# \1 _
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' l) D3 k( {. _5 `0 M6 ?
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment. ]* G9 \ p1 l- f0 N% c
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
$ L1 E3 ~4 d. xwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.; l0 q) i! g6 z
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high! V. [$ M# s2 Q
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.9 m8 i0 V. b' f* S0 Q! g
& ^& f- z9 K# w" J Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
7 V& h4 g3 N+ |1 ?- Zboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
, {& g G# a) l. Tbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution," i. D. j A( i5 z8 c. I; W
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
# `! n7 f& C( n hFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale, m8 b. U. C9 s
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
/ O4 I7 I8 e# H+ s+ \Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
! ~' H: l; l9 n' \. Z3 c( Z7 w7 ?+ nstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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! M7 l4 s4 H7 O P Vancouver
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; W% u8 `7 S' r% R9 W' m2 ] Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is2 B2 G6 F. H" C# g
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous4 M( a) ^7 S' q0 g7 Q9 V) T, E6 F
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the) k5 n! W' @1 W* r* c. R2 x
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
4 o% {) O; \+ ~0 m4 h0 t0 ]growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
; L- x) E! g; T e! xrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
5 [) z6 W9 O+ _- I3 E1 Zfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
6 X' ^. O& F0 V6 a5 k! ~for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: l* F: g3 ` j! M7 Zgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto' U: Z2 D, ^+ _; ]5 `8 T R- _7 d) G$ f9 H
; U8 _3 S* [& o& L- L Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and/ g- v( o% @! J! q0 T
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
$ q8 g7 z( W/ a6 [: W- Xrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
, A1 i( |2 m2 jindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum./ c% J$ l( d" f, h
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square% [1 w( Y+ A7 k4 ^4 X
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
8 Y- M6 x9 e" c m' G0 |% {Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.3 W! `9 r6 q+ r# E
# i) j' s8 c7 a Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ s8 E/ i' t8 @
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up" @, j( [( E: X
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
( a# C1 U' a* l7 R: B9 c6 gCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
# g% i' v5 m- A% [ ^sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
9 M% u: P! P0 e! M& J/ |higher as a "hold" recommendation.5 J) I% t& y. x
1 l& I/ E4 o: b7 y" v3 B The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
8 j5 e1 q! @, b& i) r: J: Kinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy/ m7 v5 x9 G( T3 _& v( t5 A; W) N
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos+ O% \1 K. w2 n/ q& ], [% p
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
: l. | l: ]7 J0 Hoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
9 W! i5 H6 }1 f, C* dprices."
2 F! Q# K2 p v4 t- e. J A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
1 H" I; p+ D/ Q1 t3 x* s) ?# ^www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
: |- W# q0 T5 ~5 _4 S& ntax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its. e( n+ I2 M k7 [. ^* M1 e4 ~
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries* Y+ w6 }; }/ g0 w
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop' D6 F% ]4 j( ]0 X
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
, v: d- G6 J7 U" M1 V% _excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its2 [. {- b! Y @8 I% B* T1 e
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- X0 {% ~1 ?( g; B
country.3 T/ o4 g7 e, d7 Z2 W" J$ R
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario2 K, W' C" i# J4 m z
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
* @3 B) y5 l, y1 z1 p& MPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,& G$ |& t/ h& m* D
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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: L' p0 ]1 p# U+ n, G About the Urban Land Institute
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. v! w0 f& l: b$ c8 K The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and3 p: Y% G* T5 j6 q) N( X/ h8 ~
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
' P" f1 ?5 ~, |* o& Z( A; Pleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating/ I( o7 a) t W1 p) \. x5 z& s9 X& }
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
6 B7 n2 P* J& f. s8 l4 d4 |3 ^than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
/ a: V7 d- h/ |5 _) }+ h6 Rdisciplines.) f) y' t' R0 w! Z0 X1 l( C3 ]
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.( e. a; E* b" E4 ]) f
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
' j. q0 W7 A% ?! Q y" oCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
6 G u3 |) j( w! a5 I3 fnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be- |- q4 t+ Z9 }9 _" h; `3 I
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,2 Y! m5 Y3 n8 ]5 U9 `
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
! U( f- K2 I" c) D0 G5 KHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
- l' ~( }6 t1 |President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please8 g6 D1 q) D% t. {
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on3 j5 }9 M- u/ D; Q! v5 y& s5 E; [
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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{* d" _- H7 L# l2 Y2 ^For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,; Y$ [: z; a5 |, G; X
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com+ X% H# K6 R/ Z* s8 B; \3 I! V
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html% G7 ~" l% G! t% `, Y
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