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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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% u7 t7 r* L$ b0 v% C" ADespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat / G" n! H2 ?6 t. M8 E
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
& B4 V& a+ L' \1 @% |- V8 Bcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern% D6 Y& o/ U, u
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging5 p) i1 Q* t2 R$ [8 o, V L
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
$ s5 _1 [& d! L% l+ Tand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
5 U2 V% t; ^/ [upbeat.* N9 m) L, P9 K$ K& n8 S& y
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded: p G# J" f/ ` f" j; h
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects: P, u; ~3 @7 q& n, t2 `6 |# ^8 p
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
# S) \" ~/ c1 B+ _ xestate experts, including investors, developers, property company, a8 w! i4 M3 \, b1 t8 A
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.! [, C( `" W$ r2 V5 j# Z. b
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
- j+ `# r3 |2 A% L) Y, b6 wincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
" U! ]# @7 `2 {2 j4 P. E' J( U According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian+ R4 i& b) }5 j9 g: k! ]/ v# P
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
( j. I2 B- s5 o- h0 V7 s" a1 R* {+ uenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to% r) D) ]2 _' |8 T
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 j; n8 j e- ]% e5 Ohighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."+ [5 {# m' k' Q+ t. o+ V0 n/ X; e* C
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& A: G3 B- \1 i) Q; R0 y2 q) A) P
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 Z( c9 F$ V" `speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey! l7 ?3 s' g5 n+ o w
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
6 ?/ j2 m; j. B! Xcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
3 e* N6 W, u& F2 M: F: k& o5 Jvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
+ u, X) S6 g+ ~! U& I The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
* L% {! F9 R& a4 n( _% Mrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by2 K. e( r1 A* G! [- k
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
. ? K3 _" `5 W% G1 Z* idevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country1 z# I i5 T) K+ i0 [! M3 J S# h
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating9 n$ `2 K: `6 M" H. ~9 Q
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The/ A9 w2 b3 U$ D' G* ^* F
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
: V# P) d, q2 k* atake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and: s- d: Q# `( @% {( I" @6 _
single-family housing looks overpriced.3 G: {0 R4 d4 S, W: z- e
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with) \' k+ ~ Q1 P
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian9 H. p0 s! Z' W8 [- _
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) D1 f$ y: ^6 J; H5 L
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting I: R* ?& U' W
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
0 e4 j+ q( p- G$ e) H _3 W- g# Fand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
- i, C. \# I0 K/ A9 t8 Papartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary+ Z" D; w1 m M& `& f: `
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
. R) Z+ Q/ I/ [# A, p' Cshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
7 K( H* K' \$ b4 Z' _* `1 T% lthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
8 x3 p2 z9 H* S! ]6 hin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.; S% ?1 U! o& s6 E. n0 j' C
b* M& Z3 @ o% I
Canadian Markets to Watch
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3 s9 Q* \8 i# P& R The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
; Y* S' X# r5 }. _cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
) J. D) G1 ~9 [: @neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back; q: a: u. B1 n3 M6 T) k, ^" z: h
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- c7 w% I& q2 }downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( V' A. T# e1 J' d' }! z) Qprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
: u1 ?/ k @$ _) K$ {4 mwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
* F3 S/ ^2 e1 |( q( Tprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
! k8 ^8 ]2 g* z5 o' ?whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
" q# h3 L+ N+ @Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
2 H) R+ u4 E. N* h7 l& sratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.- P9 `1 f8 ^' u2 W5 {
) F5 m5 s( k% E+ N/ Z$ s$ n2 v/ ~
Calgary/Edmonton
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) z9 r$ ^7 l- e/ [! n) n( n Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one/ ~+ W# y2 U$ K4 o* e
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
$ |$ E4 B( e: g* O" xbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,+ X6 k/ o' g, Q
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
& ^$ \/ c2 R$ ?/ F+ H; c8 vFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
% l8 g% Y2 S' j7 fHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the# j9 g! ^8 f, {& {2 [
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays: v$ o; f$ P( d) ^; N8 z
strong, this market will continue to do well.
4 H/ q9 I* F) v8 M" v; n) h3 \$ c' }/ z8 \
Vancouver
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4 R& f6 m1 N$ H% p7 D4 I# k Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
3 [. W* m" Q( \2 V* abooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous1 M1 |- b+ K+ u+ T
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
' U% |, ^ J3 j/ _4 u+ Dmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
$ {& p+ r9 b! b0 `growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy2 w* w/ v+ P4 L+ l
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
+ m, x3 h# Q: E& v9 v+ hfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%9 ?) C0 c" e+ D5 H3 S
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very: _' B' J9 t2 a" I8 X) c
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.; P: u! H9 f8 M9 d* o
! D7 ~2 t# T$ D
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and8 s9 P7 d( _+ b# @- j
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
; `; X0 T& Y. l/ K$ _, wrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing( Z- A, J: c6 Y$ @* u% q6 X6 ~9 ^
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
8 x6 m# F. F' N7 _$ E: eThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
* y6 V4 B3 i2 Tfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and6 G( u" C( Q S* V2 @/ [
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.* r- d( _3 Y& y4 |* M
4 _4 l, \- U) l' ]+ A( `" p! |+ W Montreal4 ?1 |# g( W; n0 |: T S( {) l
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
& O! A' v$ i& v% V/ L! |8 ~growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up+ h& X* Q* L1 c! g9 \+ a ?
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
# w- _$ ~; l. f4 NCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
c& ~5 _4 B8 H& Ysectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
$ j2 x; e; t2 |& Ghigher as a "hold" recommendation.9 S1 k2 B% S% Z. L
8 f. @# |7 J! j! [- `* q. ^7 p3 R
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
7 Q- x% h$ X O$ G4 |( k+ Pinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy$ u; ^3 W% [% G6 b6 i
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
6 e- Z5 b# Y a5 H+ \' ynear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
+ b( D& ]( x/ p9 `overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
& `; g# v* O' @) v" P9 Wprices."
- S7 |( m. X: X, f" S( Z A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
7 n6 u8 \/ c) Z+ d3 B# E0 cwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
6 `6 }: K" p9 F) ?2 c1 s1 ~7 k* S- N D: {( Q# b# w
About PricewaterhouseCoopers; I2 S6 u5 S1 i1 B) X2 D) v0 T
) b! h" P; w! M2 B PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
" n$ ^2 i6 C4 ] g8 X, htax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its6 ^- Z* [. X0 n, X |( J) `+ \
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
7 ?) p$ b; B) V; ^- X8 p- c( lacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop, {2 E, m4 f8 f2 Y5 S8 H [% W
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
( y) w( Y* o' m) D) oexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
, Z" x. Q" @" R x; Irelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the( N6 G+ }; [* n5 N; C+ f
country.
" ` ]% [& l, e5 S5 }& K" s2 J! _. ~ "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
i+ K+ F* ]& q1 r) Ilimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the( N$ ]4 R# y! Y- e( H% ]
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,; l* ]0 J! D# ^1 h7 ]4 _
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
$ W8 A) B: V; y' r8 o1 ?+ J/ X9 ~: L S. O e
About the Urban Land Institute
7 E# P+ G" M' e! h
$ f2 T9 V9 W. ]* R I7 ^+ x' G The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and# U8 ?+ H" N9 Y: L0 \
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide" O9 l( M0 Z- k+ {% `' d
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating6 V+ r' E7 G, r8 L
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more1 {# S$ C: s. @ T
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
5 q7 |$ w4 x: }5 tdisciplines.+ j4 q$ Z" O7 R2 L$ \- s p. |
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada. ~+ W* D' M* d
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District4 {! l3 [- Q% l- v N# _
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
7 b6 Z0 z8 h# [8 u& hnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be5 c9 \; |* u: j% A# `4 A$ d
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
5 i( M S; s/ \2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake& S1 }" [6 x. Q) g; E2 h9 m9 C7 C
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
+ ]1 }/ p# ]% N& M# w5 pPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please/ \, p- f2 h: @/ V4 E+ G* d
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on! S* u/ O: _: C; X* p
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
" ]1 W# O; H* r. U; a9 X. v2 s) g6 ^
) V v: U( g1 X) N
; J) r5 O9 h: I/ [( J0 d$ k# I0 d' D, g3 LFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,! U3 y- G: \& }7 Q0 y
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
3 b) s) j7 v" T3 s! G$ uhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html. S2 R( { |+ a- Q: Y1 r
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