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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ( y2 X/ p& }4 |% l0 }" h
9 U9 `) X/ q# i# ^2 G) d
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
# P% h& x2 B3 j9 t TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
; c% Q: E5 _* C% Z R Acommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
~, O: }- v Zas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging& K7 m5 y$ f y( `1 c
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 ~+ R+ m: m% w, Y v3 d# {1 S+ g
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
4 J1 M& k& ?. n3 P+ ?6 W2 dupbeat.8 q! {) ^: q0 B3 e3 E2 k& U3 V
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
4 }) L* W1 [; d: p, f" Y2 S: w/ vannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects; D! |% U7 x$ {5 U5 l! Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
" E& a3 X. J: p, Destate experts, including investors, developers, property company
. L: z% w; _) `4 @representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
: @ ^- `2 {& VOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
' t* T& _2 a1 x* }; B+ [) Zincluding Asia Pacific and Europe. f# ?: O* j+ ~* q- C- [5 s5 G
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian5 E4 I L3 Y4 |. r
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment [0 |' y8 A* I B
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
2 n9 l, y6 q* {" kbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record1 H6 X: i P& r: `6 W
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."- q% p2 M b% W; t8 k! k8 W) S0 I
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the# Y/ {1 b. }5 V; f
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game6 I4 h0 I3 [9 s/ [
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey) {, x2 [3 ^# C( Q1 g* S) C% v- H8 y
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US* [, v% J" B9 `* ~
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be- k% }, J$ \; }: F8 I9 M- {
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
3 b2 Z5 N, q. Q4 [( J: h The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
5 S2 e) \5 R! W$ m' c! Z) v1 lrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
' y! n6 \7 _# P. J6 L4 i1 Tcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
) \1 e- ?' j, z" P: jdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country Z7 `4 o. \/ n2 @
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating6 I" o! u3 Z2 D! m2 i* P
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The0 s- u- V1 m" Y# K
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to4 }7 Q U7 D: \6 [' B$ ?" Y( E2 T) r3 m
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and% ^* G) s; T; ~! e" `
single-family housing looks overpriced.. b0 d7 U1 z7 `1 U7 H" F; o; ]
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
5 Q6 X) v2 a, x+ M! F# ]5 [8 V. Stenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
3 v- B' I: ?/ z7 \( L( H% I& {) hmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push; D( G3 q, K& M; B- B7 z
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting2 J0 u( {: K% G& m! i/ @- B4 R
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,) T6 `9 j3 W/ r' y1 M4 i8 b
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental+ b" o2 |0 _! T# x8 p
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary1 u }& g( r: J7 R" Q- M# q
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
- Y: d# X& X, V! D2 gshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into+ a8 L! G& j) p$ A" H- g( H
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development+ l. X7 x5 j4 B/ _/ d: e& Y- N. J
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity." }# t- C7 n% L9 T% m% H
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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* O, p% @8 R+ j0 J3 r The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central3 z0 y/ u% q1 l) j
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour+ V- B9 s7 ^( z }1 `3 ~/ E
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back- c `" _& Q# w* f
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
6 }& Z/ T. Y9 V, V6 o/ P8 Fdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
1 A: w# l/ _( t1 lprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out ^3 s' X& ^" {, B9 g' n
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment7 t w) }& @6 ]4 f$ |% T, d
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
! m1 [% A3 h# x! iwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.% G+ ]; V4 B2 C/ D8 O* a
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
- k- \0 T1 j- Y5 ^0 Sratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
+ k2 d- h7 \+ T7 U4 r, F3 C5 k6 v. ^
Calgary/Edmonton
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# m$ v C+ Z; u: N' o1 ^$ S Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one: }7 r* { W. \0 n' Q9 N- N
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a5 P* N3 }; O7 O1 U' s
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# }; Y% x. [& O- Z% o
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.8 G" ^, W% t& |; }$ ^/ G
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale2 p& O" h: ?, X% w* f; ^9 j
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the. j8 C$ \ I0 p3 ?7 f& h4 H/ `
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
x& H x& k- S% p4 e3 Sstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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! y2 J0 u3 h0 ?, u Vancouver
1 k @8 z6 l) y v0 i: ?+ V
7 ^3 V/ h, b% F) Q8 D Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is. b$ B: c' Y+ ]+ a6 D0 X
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous2 F! l& o$ \4 @! u
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the6 C' A" t+ l' X$ c+ b/ e7 O
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
1 k: f" D' P; I+ w% w5 Xgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy' ?4 k2 P9 K5 S
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
: k% y8 r5 X- s8 Y9 F' p; Rfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
% y+ u6 {& v( m9 i. {for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 H* `- n- k0 `) I7 igood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.( { j- x3 e- B
+ s5 z! X* {7 L' M! t7 x9 N Toronto
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0 F3 Z1 D; u/ I8 M1 t2 a" n- ? Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and5 E+ o+ h. b* x: }! A* `
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is. S! c! Z1 c2 [* K. D
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing/ N. C" r7 ?# X0 L1 ~" i% v
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum. v) |) Q3 b4 B7 t2 a6 s
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 z: I+ s) ~# F/ h! Y: ~
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
' U' P8 @, P! o) }( V; }Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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b, u% l& W& E. ^# g Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ R$ Z& q7 k$ j2 k
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up# o8 [! |, C6 L5 }+ p Y) z
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
Y( ^% m/ R, \" g6 a. F- u. VCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
. G- c# u ~( _5 S8 I) Isectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
: z" n5 K0 C/ C, ^: O5 d9 Y) o& _. Ahigher as a "hold" recommendation.5 {/ p! I3 s e; E' {" p
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
; r: i* f& @# x8 Z* d" \2 `include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy# F; `$ ^* O; ]0 G5 Z
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
6 n4 C. Q+ Z% k V: T9 Tnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
, f9 h. v, \2 k: _3 Voverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
7 J f- `( \' J1 Tprices."
/ ^$ |+ S# v+ _; Q# k4 R2 G5 L A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
0 s* \6 l0 L1 Fwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
+ `' e4 B( o M7 j, n/ L" O$ F
, p1 g; ~8 N8 w" } About PricewaterhouseCoopers8 Z% X# @: `/ [" O1 t# \
( j8 K3 @) x5 G& p4 g9 j
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
( P* M- M: H& _. D6 }: ^) \, ytax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
' m1 h. b! e; y; e; A, ?' M5 @8 Pclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
/ J0 Q: i1 M2 f6 J% _. G, ?across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
7 W0 K5 @' q3 Bfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
1 ^( J$ I( q, A% pexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
) g; {% |" b' {# Y7 h, Y# \related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
1 z% C' u* y; \5 g+ {country. Q1 @& y" T9 Q% T6 m
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario) v/ z' F k. T8 }$ w
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the; N5 p; [9 B+ F( G
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,1 g5 l; ]. Y# J: c8 Q
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
5 c U* x( N2 K0 h: L6 L, _& H. v$ A3 i
About the Urban Land Institute1 H: v/ }# x- ^" O! E! c8 ]
2 C& f1 M( ?$ G: j) M+ F! ]
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
8 n, ^: J' d. t& w7 {research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
4 v/ D& H% t! T, V' s5 s! y/ i3 Kleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating' W& h* q E+ A* J9 o3 t' j5 c
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
) r* q- k' f" C1 k. e+ {than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development) F' U2 x% O, M; N) ]: G
disciplines.
: k; B! W& T1 O3 x2 I& I) [ The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.8 U6 X8 [* R* }! _* o- [9 Z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District& u+ I( c4 g$ D1 V) J. L% [9 P* I
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
7 |; o M/ m$ r: r3 V* Snow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be8 ?. w" n0 r$ c( ?7 I
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,0 ~- v; p( y4 K6 u) W
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake( i, |. A! F% c1 I( C4 A2 n7 v" f
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,: q5 ~) x1 Y6 r2 m K% G y. N# D
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
) T1 l. {1 J2 v1 T0 ucall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on( o% i2 a- K& P, M4 l: M* U6 D0 N
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 X0 Q: z, H, j) o* i- v
' [; G1 D" Y Z
1 h- g& l6 d' T0 G
2 u. Y+ i4 p4 D4 bFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,+ I% N e! j3 f0 l+ x
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
: V* U/ {+ Z# U; V* `( U# ?$ {http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html+ D& W. z# X, \7 V
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