Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
) P* @$ ]) m! R  Z. a' P* xMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
! d4 m* T+ q) DNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
+ Y: |6 k' y' A) p$ \9 \
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

; ]/ F# F) `1 V" @* H8 _Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

* s; T$ ^0 b. O+ wJul 2007
NA
6 ?3 T& D, g5 ]( Z 2328
% P; ^2 c# d! v* T. T& z) B7 A: f. C 717
442,752
410,000
5 A2 ^2 o/ D; n: N. @ 320
28
: D3 {9 L7 `# x/ B  j 31%
1 H7 \; f6 E5 c  K: c8 Z  S# e
1 t. k; w/ C7 H% F2 I8 TJun 2007
NA
2661
1011
- X3 |7 E1 @; ~ 442,817
+ ^3 N, f0 A3 B7 U 409,000
328
22
38%

May 2007
3 ]7 s& F3 i" C8 M NA
$ |+ m! l, G( t7 u" l* G( V) H 2288
1261
451,216
415,000
322
19
% M! n$ J! Z% {% Q0 e7 l 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
4 g( U- |$ [7 D  w$ S+ ?0 O3 b( d鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

; x# h+ y* j5 M$ M8 D4 L用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2 j0 T  v) C7 r. F- E3 _2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' U/ {2 j3 q- Z) o" \" S' y. v3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' G1 m" ~* a1 D* y( ^存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 P' \! {* G* d" W鉴定完毕！

1 X" @4 O) Z- X( k9 W
2 j" y, D7 g! N0 [5 C呵呵，太不专业了吧。
" j5 M' C& o: v
  `% ~$ F, ^1 M/ o' _( `+ b新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

+ M/ s0 Z4 I# I这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
1 X* q# M) Q( F9 DDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 [: Q4 z1 k8 ^. x; V/ Y9 Z/ R4 W6 L5 hIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
9 ~- e$ V4 S) yHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
- m* a. \; u) wThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
6 x" d& q7 a$ p' ~$ [9 ^' ~In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

: s1 t: D1 l, E+ @7 d
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
! p3 V  h4 L. `: B8 R2 VEdmonton Single Family Home
' Y! W& U% _4 n" nMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
4 `% G* _! p2 J
% b! Y2 J! @9 I* @
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

$ Q; Q! F) l! Z, W+ `9 Y

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
: `, v* }$ \9 u) b4 z1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
8 x$ \/ |* v5 ~! T5 p8 r2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
  ^$ L9 G- D. P# P' x3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


! Y' O4 L+ d7 `3 W# b7 `$ J& Z
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。