Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
* ~4 O! @$ u! K' E+ H# f& h* V# P) @MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
$ r) \) r9 k. d$ X2 C. K+ Y
0 a1 s  [% B  ?$ k  W8 `Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

, J- {3 `% u7 p) ~, qOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
5 P8 \! a! ?4 i, Q" U1 i
" @$ q* i" r8 Y( V6 sSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
( h2 E$ |$ R2 {# U  e
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
; E! r( u4 J& K% Z- B" y1 i8 l1 T; D NA
2328
717
8 |5 B9 q% W5 M, } 442,752
: t; |! X! N6 b- R 410,000
320
28
+ }! p" |$ @; H9 x* |# w 31%

- _. W: j& b  q( OJun 2007
NA
2661
1011
442,817
409,000
: f0 b0 a+ W! D 328
( E/ _$ @( |6 J1 w2 c/ d 22
& S" q/ T/ V" ?9 u. j5 d' L 38%
1 E, N( ?0 A; H- g  \
2 {$ T! u; |( i6 F9 W' o: VMay 2007
2 w- q6 K# G! }$ ^ NA
. v6 i/ P! U# q. _. J, e 2288
8 f" z8 B4 [% m3 C3 u+ r 1261
451,216
415,000
% ?, ?$ @) e6 N 322
# R% |6 Q1 i% ?9 k 19
# y9 L8 _5 J$ L! \2 F' T+ b8 } 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
! z0 k+ q" `* C& h+ Q. ]0 u鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
" T- x- ]. F3 g" p8 S+ x  P- k9 r存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
6 S7 [" _7 t8 s. u: Y2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
$ V; Q% t* y8 Z鉴定完毕！

, I# i" `9 O4 B" G& ~2 B( d6 T; q
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
6 ?% P( P4 C5 o% s) u
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

% t- @3 m4 P( M) W7 I1 Q: B就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
' @0 V9 t' W; G9 W* iDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

, b) U- Y& P- x9 f" \- z

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
6 n5 t/ _7 B0 @1 rIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
+ o8 p4 r" n+ Q6 rHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
5 G3 C. Y1 D! A7 C' Z' J& ]good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
4 L/ l* V- j+ xIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
' |$ y  B6 J, g3 b4 M+ L1 pMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
  t- `' W) U7 V% t) r: \' W, v. cNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


1 F4 H0 V' N6 l  Q# j) G* mI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2 w  A) M  N" d- H+ v2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
& X# f; G2 O; e3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
! _5 `& Z( B- q9 g
) m$ H1 n* ?2 L2 s* G3 ^, q

" Q& c2 o2 a, p2 f3 I# {/ [只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。