Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
& C3 e& H) h& E& L! i% v4 SMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
4 @5 y% y" [* u0 ?& vNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

& N. x+ X- ?: qDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

4 ^( ^* a- Z% {8 P0 i! w" \4 wOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
5 V( w" n) T1 k7 h2 C( U( L) o
( b" C2 G# `2 v- _: z/ eSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

6 f' N& r* e4 WAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

, b: O6 r( V* g6 J" v6 {5 D) y% AJul 2007
NA
2328
1 i5 j/ S) t1 I" M" N( K 717
442,752
3 N# i1 g: F3 b 410,000
* V$ S. g: x6 A* }) f 320
% Z2 O7 p, B: q" h( _- b) u 28
31%
5 _- t( F$ ^' D6 X" d
8 s: K2 \' R+ m9 q; D  E7 [Jun 2007
7 S/ _$ E; ?) n  h, l NA
- z7 a0 s- g9 ]% B2 p; \ 2661
$ Q8 m& P' `( |0 H 1011
442,817
409,000
328
6 E7 |; r1 W2 A0 H" n# v 22
+ ^6 `* j" H8 n8 D! E5 i 38%

8 ^$ X: F( j) E* t4 K5 Q# G9 W9 B( XMay 2007
NA
) s  v# ^. ]5 {2 E3 @! M 2288
1261
451,216
415,000
5 G: s: G$ Y  j5 ~4 }8 X 322
; `: b) e. R" }- s) G 19
  @3 t) ^7 b. v! \6 r8 Y5 H 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
- X' Z! r5 l, y2 j* n- [存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
: z# r( M" ]; q  w鉴定完毕！

2 ~- _$ S1 \- {% v
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

# T- J: S( y4 B. O5 I9 j' D
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
" z+ O7 f: {; `. L( Y- W3 D
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

9 R' y+ C0 Q4 n+ a9 q4 T$ K5 A! F( b就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
% y( d9 x; S* F9 k* n) D8 n
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

4 [# n9 h' ^, L4 [

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

0 ^0 d  q! X0 e

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
5 z2 ^' U' X! V+ L( D0 {How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
" q. I3 U4 z4 r4 TThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
, j$ R, m  G( u7 D2 _8 VIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
7 `! q$ u9 z2 [5 U- [1 jIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
. L* u1 m/ A' M6 GHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

' L5 i4 x2 v% @! `' {+ a8 |
8 F/ Q! i  ?, Y- S! eI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
9 R8 ~, H7 X4 ]Edmonton Single Family Home
6 y) w5 E! H2 b3 O1 \: ~( A3 hMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

% t* K1 n" @% ?5 q4 @; CQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


) K; N9 b, f/ C2 O) S+ g9 fI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

/ |, [2 Y9 {( J9 k$ X

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
/ f/ d+ E& i; M, n+ o0 _3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
% B7 C8 _6 E# y+ \" {

4 _) Q) I) K; j  n6 s- T1 i
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
5 ~' H1 `& f- g' T+ S/ Y: G+ T看来，观察days inventory 更重要。