Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
- k# E& v% H9 O# \. K+ B/ |MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
  a" ^5 v/ |$ X4 QNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

3 {3 U& L  d( u5 w; O& e# O' M9 jDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
. z3 O# Q# j; r7 P& Y
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
5 k5 B9 a4 E0 i0 E  j1 `
& t" d& b2 i) A8 a) F2 t' FSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

! O3 d7 M. `; nAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
0 I( `/ V  {* ~
. M" i' n% x5 c: N" y6 QJul 2007
" p8 Q4 I. A) Y0 K0 \! r  u NA
! s0 G* o6 v& f1 Q; }  t 2328
717
442,752
3 q( C- D2 R* m/ D) o6 u: P. s% i 410,000
: v$ o% s( l+ C. k0 i 320
+ h& P9 s* P- m* i4 g* [ 28
% u- F& L) o1 l7 o0 `+ p 31%

2 o7 a- j4 q% oJun 2007
NA
7 x9 y# |* m' M; P0 T 2661
! g2 p( N6 D" r+ A, t 1011
442,817
409,000
$ z  }) {, }1 ]. m- V' U 328
22
  x+ }  D% p9 {' ^8 h5 W 38%
* H# f0 m) u2 B
May 2007
5 [/ B. a# M' B3 y4 t3 K0 t$ d NA
9 S/ A8 S" l' I9 E: N 2288
1261
4 {7 f  s& f8 Y6 I2 C4 F4 S7 k 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
4 t) J6 D3 W7 y5 l& Q; k' x鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
- O5 U9 `& F% O7 U* W& }这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& Y5 l" t2 T/ ?" f& S存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; H  r" _! a! c2 Q8 J6 }! u鉴定完毕！

) @* o8 [2 z% q, \) M3 a2 I3 ]用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
" I7 s- T2 Y$ r/ P; ~* q3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

# b9 ~9 M! f' n4 T4 t; o  W" E
4 B1 N! V5 F( E& k呵呵，太不专业了吧。

( c4 G- E5 ~: S& v' c' @' g5 Y新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

9 A7 Y5 N4 E/ K$ _* }* T就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

: {( R0 @+ J3 B( N! r) J6 ?

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
' B6 \: ?9 Y* K. V% `0 ^: oIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
6 E; i; ]; `9 F) l7 e" l+ mgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
- N' K9 s" _3 `+ _( X% |8 U, zIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

: e& y! _8 _' g& b$ I& u/ h
. g- `* w7 Q$ t3 K+ P& J8 VI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
" o+ j- a- T* J( u) {Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
& A+ u+ a. X' \2 c- f' {Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

8 y3 {% O7 J/ V. IQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

+ i9 C' S. {* p0 X8 F
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

$ {* M6 ^8 Q7 n8 L! \( G6 n

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
2 Q1 q. c5 _+ T$ r. E- V1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
% R1 Y& ]( w0 y/ {2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
) A8 w' h& u7 t/ f  w- O; e3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

. _, N0 ]8 ]8 S8 N' t! A. I
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。