Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
8 O- |+ ?7 u3 V. \  M: Z: h3 c; K& yNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

) o; }) m- P( |Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
; ~% o7 l: X+ k# h* }% b5 l- w' Q
) H; S, Z' x1 k. ?( E* k6 ?1 oAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

. q8 O+ F" N  g( `) nJul 2007
1 H: p3 E5 W0 t0 ~* ^- P NA
, u+ K+ E: L! L/ W2 u$ ?# v% q" G! A 2328
717
# K+ |) |4 l, X2 S6 t 442,752
410,000
1 v8 J0 U" S: Z4 B# g) ?0 ] 320
7 }) ]! F2 N- z5 e: x9 r 28
31%
  e/ {: T) C9 F6 T0 [
: T! C+ G- m" C1 C& FJun 2007
9 `  }0 [$ m& l3 `0 Y NA
/ C8 z& Q% v8 x 2661
" j6 k5 U; ^8 h4 @ 1011
2 @# g+ L5 E* z# h! I+ \7 }, m' G 442,817
409,000
328
1 Z: |% H+ R: d% P 22
38%
. i: r& R; e; `# X! J% L' \
) p7 s6 o6 x3 q0 A8 s! w2 QMay 2007
NA
2288
1261
% I& t9 S' p7 d 451,216
0 j9 h9 M% ?  n' o/ m4 J8 I$ {0 i 415,000
322
) y; S; h7 z6 H: i 19
# j& ^* c5 p- l" o% ]2 S0 m* B8 Z 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
% y7 W; \+ j6 g- b鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
( Z% ]2 [5 I) {" d- w这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
# b- g) N9 j1 K9 H4 ?) z$ ?- _2 `% \, b存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
0 e% H  n, g  C& v) r) I; _" c
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
6 f6 G, h0 M4 p) g
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
6 _4 e- J5 @  m9 `6 g! Q5 W1 NDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

, `8 Y( a, B% }& n1 \1 E0 s
# y7 N  p0 v' v; ?" P: J

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

" c3 C/ r0 K, J$ D

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
  z  k" R. r) _& |6 ^; PIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
1 u6 u# r, N. B, ]That is what i say half full or half empty.
8 h) y& x- w; e4 y  c0 rgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
" l  `: Z8 ~8 R+ n4 S) E3 ~+ SIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
; H. x2 B" a; u1 O' w, A+ PHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

, u1 w4 ^  U4 g$ ~. KI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
9 {2 i! Y5 B! b8 }" @! a' B& PMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" O8 {7 Y7 h8 c7 Y# L! V- HIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
9 U" u9 d* g# L. t" I! ]Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

0 d8 ^4 h% x3 CQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

8 f: X" |9 S- x# D) D& Y/ x( H5 m9 R
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
* u0 M( R% U  y4 p; v2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
9 a& q) t' |) B* J4 ~3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
" x* Q' A* h' @. T4 t. a/ H- ^
6 h8 `: _7 J$ ]" E2 [0 ]3 `
) Q6 R. m5 p: ]# S0 f4 W
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
' R" m" K0 V; C2 _看来，观察days inventory 更重要。