Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
" }+ G' v2 \! J/ {+ FNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

4 O6 S2 J9 z$ H: r0 V8 Q+ ^  g9 ?- mOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
3 Z/ k5 v# c9 D" X/ [8 v
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

  Z$ a  E) k& e0 k$ LAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
. l* u5 r" g+ X# J; y8 H, o
& b) P2 }6 H: d  C0 S9 N" X$ aJul 2007
* X* r( U+ v7 h NA
2328
717
442,752
410,000
320
28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
1 r, r- ?% S# m% L 2661
1011
: F" Z1 Z% }- h& D; ^0 r: x 442,817
409,000
328
9 o$ S% v# ]. A2 J' C 22
" V: n0 R/ I* |& x 38%

/ o* i7 |* ]& I+ gMay 2007
NA
9 Q( U9 T: L) m' Y/ F$ o4 s, ~7 s 2288
8 F- i' z, ]8 |+ r: M$ n6 _ 1261
2 l! [8 ~" ]5 a- r3 N; t 451,216
415,000
; E; G/ S6 s5 M0 O 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
3 a& r/ E* k) I/ B) r+ F这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
" m: ^1 P9 _: R, t( X% K鉴定完毕！

( z! q! G: s  r6 j4 Q1 C" B" b* h
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
( Y) ]9 C4 o0 O7 \+ T% k/ _! n8 I2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
( o, t' I( V6 d- u* Q2 w& k7 K2 k+ d存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

) v1 F3 a# |# Q6 V/ i: B! P* |' Q- }
2 @2 U# B* ]. r, }* K, ]呵呵，太不专业了吧。
6 i1 z  A9 v+ G3 t9 \
+ Q' B! i- L' B8 e) {8 S新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

. z3 l& W' j$ ~, x# o" l3 F! k
) p+ H# D2 ?3 Z+ B7 N9 b% s( q$ J0 `

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
: c, w2 K9 C5 `$ SDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
$ r) G  G: q3 ^; @2 ?Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
  B& }  U2 E( JHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
9 B1 r! A+ j) _2 @MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
6 ?5 M8 C" J1 ^7 KNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
; ~; S! `# c0 @- W! s0 H6 p& E

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
) X" U% }9 E  M0 `* l* K4 A1 ~2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

7 `8 n0 G: p* Z1 k+ ~
/ L( F& L8 q8 j& ^, Y  h下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
# X. L6 Q( |) ^1 T1 [( e3 L3 v  Q

% Q9 K* m% c* ~; n' t
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
4 ]% b/ |  R. d+ W看来，观察days inventory 更重要。