Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
3 ?; ]; ]0 }# u5 }; ]MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
+ R8 `6 s" z: i0 b" ~Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

) s3 I7 ^: _* R( \* C6 i2 O: QDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

4 ^# i1 g0 @5 m0 ?' F& COct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
6 T+ E6 q$ V1 T' g- }2 w5 l
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
: T, c! ?- ^2 Y3 k% ?
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
( q* d: b5 T9 j- A! |# p8 ^- S
Jul 2007
NA
2328
+ B: ?$ O6 S6 J' z! W; D 717
442,752
1 K+ P6 B& ]' v 410,000
8 }0 a1 u8 M. N/ A5 r# y( Q+ ` 320
28
' e# q  i$ _) A+ N4 e$ E1 q9 d 31%

. m/ |  C: o5 b9 n5 C* P9 e5 }Jun 2007
( k5 c& q! v0 R& H$ H NA
2661
1011
% d* B$ \) F, V$ t4 m. ?3 g, k, @ 442,817
409,000
1 A) B" ?" d" ]& @ 328
22
: Y. j" @/ |$ P0 G( q% Z 38%
  H( \: Y7 v0 A1 C( N
( I' W4 d# w" z* N$ Z5 g' y$ \May 2007
3 l; L  N( l& r2 F% m4 Z NA
; s  I0 A% ?% F- U 2288
0 G1 A! I! n1 m) J5 Y) K  s 1261
# I( d. D# o) o 451,216
  e8 I' w5 Z+ W1 ?3 p1 r; j 415,000
# T; E1 S9 s3 o: r" ? 322
' Q1 h1 o5 f' \$ k: {' i) {0 |: Z 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
0 D+ H+ }, d- w+ U# C存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

& R7 m4 p# b; |2 n  |. @
4 y7 E$ }, H) h2 `用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
  p7 d  W/ L- Y* @7 \鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
) E& ^( }) e4 e4 m
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

% n; f  W$ Q+ |" L6 x就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
( n" m7 Z" H+ q0 H7 C' B4 N
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
/ M/ x: G* D. KDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

* }/ Z/ S/ L7 n

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
0 b% U! p6 t  W6 t3 FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

9 d. _1 G+ \3 z

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 N# s# N4 e* z) u; \* L6 f2 THow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
' W* @: y1 Y& o! z& ~' JThat is what i say half full or half empty.
! s$ [4 I- E" Ogood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
4 ^' z3 @1 V  q0 p: n& |Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

6 {( ^/ }' @% |$ pI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
2 o) _1 @) e7 KMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" n0 p8 ~2 _. P6 o# UIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ |  h$ p. n4 b0 s7 P! PNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

7 a2 S, d7 p+ w: }QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
0 S+ w: E* U+ m* a$ E6 t
" K& K  _( b# T2 ^* |5 k, \/ B
- ^; _9 _) v9 y9 B, Z& W& EI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
" h, ^5 y- s* g# {& x3 I. D1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
* M5 \# |8 I4 P7 G( F2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

2 E7 g$ z0 q. r  {; h
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
. g5 y: A( L; N4 W2 A4 Z0 c; C
3 N9 Q, w6 |# |' ~) h

% e: M$ e, `, v: T$ g* w& r( G& K只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
! ?9 x6 }# x/ Q/ P( Z8 a) d# l看来，观察days inventory 更重要。