Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
0 i: `! V6 l  l& y" ^( AMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
: I' u9 h" T$ ?0 E1 X7 M6 q7 fNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

' v- e8 C. h; {, p! W, W/ |: }4 [, GDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
0 D- Z) n; [1 t6 C; |5 u  b
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
. A" Z7 _$ L( w! R& p
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

7 H1 t0 ^4 }$ {9 X8 Z9 CAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
: {% J2 e6 {6 ~2 h% P
Jul 2007
/ U. C* v* R) E2 N8 K' r, D NA
) Y! Q4 ]; H" ?/ `* q 2328
717
442,752
410,000
320
28
31%

: D6 h: E+ f2 X3 V' hJun 2007
1 G1 f- v& g* t0 ?" U+ o) _  r NA
2661
1011
; m# \$ u4 A3 K2 X5 d' x 442,817
409,000
4 c/ t, B) K! ~  y4 e! Q% U+ Q: j 328
# c, r, m$ l; r: r6 @- Z& k 22
$ K/ S# ~- T  L3 g3 [9 a 38%

May 2007
* O; h# b6 y9 _( ^ NA
2 Y. I1 \5 [+ q 2288
& D6 }8 k: v- Z 1261
' j1 o& s+ O3 F0 @ 451,216
- C: P5 l1 }5 k2 O" ]* t 415,000
) x" W4 `. Q6 ]$ i 322
19
. X! b. U: U+ p7 t9 o 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
1 L' |' R1 O3 g$ p: _$ Q. G: @) y鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

8 [; x5 V$ x/ R; ~7 ?1 f: |# J% A
  S+ U  F4 O! x# i! @) h% E8 V9 ~用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3 G4 ], d" X6 B# b/ E; Q# K3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
/ p- P) y/ [! D' k$ I2 n) X1 ~! k存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

- q* l' _) E+ f' v" M# }
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
! j& S6 T& L1 n! J, {0 x
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
% E1 {1 u! e. I( `1 _
7 V4 z. `' _2 p9 n1 s/ a% d' g这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

  @7 {9 B% P: I5 z) H) b) T) z& O/ m
3 y; D$ I# e# U! R

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

+ F7 J3 B" `7 j  t- V9 X

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
2 `+ R) R. ?1 [+ J8 R$ gHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
; H; R: g5 j7 ?: p3 Mgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
7 ?3 J4 D% u; L- gIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 q7 d' R" q- S  hIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
8 w' G8 [2 x4 @How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

# L$ z9 L/ ~( N) K9 u+ |
% z. ]' U+ @# A# w, WI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
. E; b" g! p+ U- h8 U- R6 AEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
7 ?, P1 H) N( }1 M0 y1 ]Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

: I: n" {1 _5 J2 L$ OQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

4 p% ?) E& m/ J( q' M& ]$ x7 s- c2 t
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

+ p$ S. J9 m" V! q+ S

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
' e- l! k* E& U. F4 Z$ g1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

: W7 @& B0 n& d: k" b1 ~9 c' \
4 p* H" I# N7 ~1 l下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
. @/ Y9 b* C, c
. v& D" u# B/ Q& L" _& M

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。