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Long US

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鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 10:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.2 I2 p6 h/ `) S$ O0 J  D
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.# W/ L0 t/ b$ b& e
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.0 @4 i1 ]& Y  L  {) |
TD can give you 4.2%.7 q1 ~5 q: p7 w. V8 d1 G. F' ~" u
BMO can give you 4.3%." O" F; I6 W. x/ w  |
RBC can give you 4.0%.
3 X$ E6 W9 c$ ~  n(Roughly)+ a3 _( e; `" R! u( Q9 Q
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
6 U, \& E, `% u1 GAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.7 T8 ?3 q/ x! ^" ~$ [4 P
Also, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.# J1 D/ a3 j+ o3 [
From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
% g& }1 q' O* N# j" RRough calculation:
3 X" u9 ^: Q9 gRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
6 K! Q( l- M9 l' U- |* pBuy 10000 US cost you 105000- [4 J' X9 R' O# \
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
, i) S$ ~. O* I3 i1 {2 I6 lIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.' _4 m8 a- C2 e; m/ K, w8 R% `
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
# S0 x0 x- Q  m+ {# x( T* [I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
8 x8 F$ Z& x7 Y0 s* m! ]3 gBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.; q0 V$ n7 X5 o
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
好多人都在观望18日的利率。
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发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
9 K3 |* E$ `# n) lWell, I think it is the time to long the US.. @8 b( E$ C% H% t9 S
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet." C3 q9 D1 p, y3 M
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...
! {2 ]. y9 h3 z$ Q% r- r% l

$ F% v* c( c0 E4 v
% z5 L8 ?4 e9 @$ H这帐算得不对吧?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
0 f# i( h& ^) Q# p! x: S& o! C* L  N2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。6 j3 R" l& i2 j8 _/ Y/ C+ ?2 [
如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。1 J1 ~. P/ w! E' s# I# g
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
1 C* h' U! ^- N政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴,那就不知道了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表 ) H8 U6 j" K* e( n0 j
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

0 d& A+ |; F. w1 P# w呵呵,多打了个0。6 w  l3 {. X3 P  |
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多谢。$ J5 G! H1 I0 V  u4 _4 ~

3 k( m6 s' t% R; ~! i" m! V7 s  u把其他的去掉个0就可以了。
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-17 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
% A1 ^2 [' j" {2 ~! P我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。( @* M+ [1 m( X' @! D  k
2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。9 Q% d) w7 m5 b( {4 c& d" |+ S9 F
如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。/ \# y9 }) w, m, V$ u
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。/ q( o* O+ q" O: a6 x
政府也会需要钱。 ...

8 j: ?  L# w, d; d1 k+ H但愿如此。 美元今早强劲, 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
! |8 D( c- R1 h1 s" ~% B/ i9 T8 `/ J! w8 j- ?- s
现在美国经济面临通胀危机,原产品, 石油价格高涨, 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影, 楼市大跌, 破产人数增加, 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
今天北美时间星期1, 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想?
$ p, B3 V3 @6 b3 K  _6 I0 P还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。/ C1 [; c' n+ g0 C. P( F
如果来次调整的话,估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
  a3 v# i& n2 I7 w) j: a你说美国政府会不会调整,如果下25BPS的话,会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
, h1 ]# M5 J% a' E: I0 U如果我是中国政府的话,我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份,从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
& P6 o- d2 H9 [6 t8 p6 L, D- T8 ZRate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
1 T+ T9 g! e& f# {: x0 w1 `4 fUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264
鲜花(2253) 鸡蛋(32)
发表于 2007-9-18 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]
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