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Long US

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发表于 2007-9-16 10:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
" f) J; _+ W0 `3 m/ x+ X. \( U0 jNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.' b: ]% _3 Y2 I: H2 Z' j
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits." v# Y% D+ ]' m. m1 c# \: b
TD can give you 4.2%.
+ Z# L" ~' L5 fBMO can give you 4.3%.+ I9 H: [; Q5 x
RBC can give you 4.0%.- c5 }! S; K2 \2 N0 O( P; s
(Roughly)
# U3 l0 H2 x: E( `; LIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.; I, J* Z" {7 f& Q
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
' W% K+ B9 [4 p0 lAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.) j3 e' j7 p' j8 \8 G2 y2 f6 M
From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
6 b2 L" F7 K' n: M8 eRough calculation:
+ g! Q% x4 V# O# z4 LRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.034 y: n1 Q4 Q# M7 P
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000" u4 B- d/ N+ y- G! t
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 1040003 ~- T" y# H3 S8 s% c9 A
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.! s  f: J3 h; k: M; M8 W% \
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
! b& I  n: a0 t/ U! `I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.; {/ [4 s9 k( d8 _3 t
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
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发表于 2007-9-16 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
好多人都在观望18日的利率。
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发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
; D( ^1 G9 d5 a( i; Z, YWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
3 P5 j% i0 G, @7 P) j0 ~# HNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.. Y* ?2 B& f2 O! J) C- \6 g
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

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+ u) q# ?! ]4 n2 j, T这帐算得不对吧?
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发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
3 y# k$ @. e0 S" w5 A5 C' p2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。' l5 @2 H) j9 f( C
如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。, e7 K; Y% t/ x' c# |
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
) S, V6 N2 F- ~; m政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴,那就不知道了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
9 f9 v1 T+ x& h# u/ B4 Z( X4 ]9 OBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?
+ V& }) P5 I% F  {- h: H
呵呵,多打了个0。7 K5 T0 A8 Z* p1 X

9 e( z" Y3 F7 \6 n* @9 [  A多谢。$ a6 z& [" L' V/ z  H6 O& }

5 \) R$ S) ]( H$ W3 f! \$ y4 E把其他的去掉个0就可以了。
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-17 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表 " z# o5 }! Q4 [( `! b! g  l* M
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。+ E0 A' ]/ c7 f% h; e& h& [
2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。1 b2 |9 O9 {0 N
如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
/ W; e* P# W% N8 o0 ~+ q而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
. _/ J: M" n4 i9 o+ t' \政府也会需要钱。 ...
8 e+ T0 Z- X) o* ~0 f" n
但愿如此。 美元今早强劲, 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
6 A2 D0 O' T+ W# B3 u3 r+ O2 Y! |' h4 i  t: \; {, g
现在美国经济面临通胀危机,原产品, 石油价格高涨, 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影, 楼市大跌, 破产人数增加, 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
今天北美时间星期1, 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想?( q0 p+ R% t$ R+ Q$ l
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。* S: z- P2 y: H& l
如果来次调整的话,估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
  ]7 v+ L; j  e( H6 r# |: r你说美国政府会不会调整,如果下25BPS的话,会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
& [5 s3 D7 ?2 q如果我是中国政府的话,我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份,从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange: S' R! i7 _# U: Y$ A
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
9 L8 _8 ?, ?+ c/ J) @4 z- RUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264
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发表于 2007-9-18 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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1 C3 ~4 \+ {" _& V[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]
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