Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
) g1 K) r2 D' h* G: v0 DIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
) }: |' I" {3 g# b9 ATD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
$ W8 t2 j; m7 e' \RBC can give you 4.0%.
& m% f( H5 P' g(Roughly)
" Y. A  `. y8 y0 U! q& OIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
& e8 b! r& d* ~Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
$ e) F0 K. C4 r- C9 u9 @3 AAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
) E4 L: ^: h9 R$ ?. \2 ^' pFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
. ~3 f6 {* h4 W* V3 i2 c: F( KRough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
* i5 d5 H* o0 @; LDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
7 ]# f( [/ o6 i# g- `
All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
# a4 z7 S. c1 s1 \2 UNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

& ^+ A) s( n& z! N) ]8 d) @4 B
+ i6 |+ I, u# |* h7 ?- E" R9 a; o这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
/ ^: {/ Z5 v3 A) f0 f0 M) j2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
6 O8 R  F0 k* g/ z3 E如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
4 I1 h- z: ]! H& R6 d# `Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

7 @, h! g' ?  T" v# f3 b呵呵，多打了个0。
% s/ L6 u6 T3 E: `5 r; U4 V
6 ^, k/ v2 J( n; ^7 @; C- Q多谢。
# ]/ d( }5 H1 v- e( m* i7 d: L
把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
; Z, w' c2 K) z* h7 Y1 v# `2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
3 J" _$ R9 d; u7 I' q如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
" m: X9 ]( y3 {, o# x/ G2 q而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。 ...

/ p2 |% |! U- Z  B5 e0 `但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
* r6 M$ m2 c/ {& T. Z% o
现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
( I3 L. Y$ k2 S% ^/ g如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
5 D$ p/ ]6 H$ l/ N: Y4 ZRate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

- O' a5 D. Z5 ]2 x# x" w: t; W$ U8 }. y- n[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]