 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
. n0 Z, Y0 t, ^7 p( ]$ [; a
$ ~/ |9 f+ v' |# E4 y* r5 e8 v* `Republish Reprint2 |6 L$ E5 P8 l* K
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET% K9 k4 c, [, {* i& f, t3 b
More from Gordon Isfeld
: l$ _; P% B4 p0 J% VLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
0 a) h# Q7 X4 ~- I, rBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
" O; T9 A0 O& U Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
" K# G' C: t. yOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.5 T8 I7 g6 i- V. w# q
0 P( |0 r/ t/ l: X% \That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
# E+ A* M6 G/ e! E
N8 Z* A$ \* c5 m# [ Y3 {In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”+ w' E- U- I7 n3 ]/ r. c3 y
# Y3 q) b; s" o" j, o: YMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.7 F/ e4 Y* q5 a E
. ^- j, F* b3 } J) H) [) e, C
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.4 r" k5 F% b# m% m& F% t
* V% E6 ~! E3 t/ ?; t
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.6 B. q6 D" k; q, |* Q; k; A
' O: i: s' G: W, m! RHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.9 p; P4 l( N X# R9 ~
8 M; O9 @( K( L1 N/ E( ^& [In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.- p. G( I- H/ p! `& v: i; @3 ~
: N) g9 `, C3 \1 }: z7 p* d v
Related4 `0 L" {* o; u7 ?7 Y; Y' s
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
& L7 ?0 C* l7 [3 F" MCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
- r% V" k& \ S8 QThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
/ M$ Z& k6 N9 a; v: Q8 x, y, AAdvertisement9 h( a) ?" r( Y$ s' m' h/ N' d! L a
3 B3 G F2 x! o
2 |1 q! t" t4 ~( l: E2 P
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
3 g" L7 c' Z+ |, J. @
2 D0 W2 m/ r+ i& q' g% h“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
! P! d4 y% S% Y& k( F% e. X' {% Z0 Y9 w [) ~/ K
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.4 H; E( `/ I' P& C$ U: |; E
9 X. ~0 \1 e0 i0 E6 k" H$ |
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.4 s6 L4 p( O5 Q$ N
2 r$ b! o/ g6 _. y( n8 p
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
4 n! p* N) S' i) U# u1 M3 m- g/ g! ~+ G! \
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.+ b) r% m1 b& N: L% f
1 G% K( I; p0 @* y+ s* e
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
6 f2 `: I- \! t0 M& b8 \: U* N
/ V4 F1 K& _1 @. [. MThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday., l3 g! @, ?5 { v$ p# P5 G
- `. {3 W$ n# \) ^1 n“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
( t0 E6 Q; {" i( E# Q7 o+ z
% g/ O, ~5 c# c/ b% YTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
% ~8 [; C) A3 U7 j4 K1 {0 v0 `* L3 \% w( j
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
