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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts+ X' ]' u. i% s" d$ H" h7 D$ A
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. r, g) B0 Q+ x! }) o; rGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET8 }% D/ L0 s1 F" Q7 r% w- h5 x# ~) x
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.( P8 l# ^8 Z3 \- ?$ ~2 h
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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: y3 Y, r$ I, [: `. QOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.1 }2 x* u! f) x! x
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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m8 }, B" k& u0 o2 Y( _In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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% {* \9 ]8 Z9 F. F4 X) |, @1 KMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.6 B3 G' ^' ]. L3 C3 b
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.) L& S6 R: F. ^% a0 L# O
& `1 {% ^' Z9 _: o3 {% ^. DAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.5 Q* C3 w8 n1 k& N2 @; Y) V+ r( R
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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% ?0 [+ x- r, o6 U$ [" b+ AThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.8 g! `: G, |3 v+ D
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year., v( T \% x: g
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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* \$ X9 F0 g2 N, b' K$ XContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.. C: D: y0 u5 J' N$ E5 h
; k7 l# O$ a' e4 r3 CThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.: ~/ C6 R u( m$ l) R( P
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.7 F h; R) L. v* r5 W3 C/ @9 o
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.2 R% E. }+ s7 \
' `) A. d1 @' o7 s" l6 z! B“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.2 C U- ~9 i! E6 ~" H" a$ u
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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