 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts. y; ~) d2 P8 S# t9 D
' l. Q$ U! I1 R
Republish Reprint
7 r1 A( D0 K9 C. s4 IGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET7 M) y# X, Z9 S8 ^7 h* }
More from Gordon Isfeld7 B. s; c. g* L4 m
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.; T$ V: M- L4 h
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
, V- M2 u X4 | Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More5 q5 r) K: J# \$ a
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.# h3 Q- n& i6 p. i
* I& K0 y' d- i& P# GThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.6 [5 S" |3 b% h' A5 \3 J9 i
+ C. [4 G6 n8 D
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
9 ?. e( y" t( ]
- M* e5 A1 h+ I" cMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year./ k9 q5 a4 ^) Y1 G& G ^
1 e! B) R2 K, P) y) Y6 [
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.- [6 A9 ^6 X/ n# x; I" o4 _0 C
6 S" l5 \1 c. G7 H, ?& y9 g
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.8 |; G ~5 |- o/ m$ ~+ O' |" c
6 j. n9 \4 c5 @! @However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
+ n' |0 h) g# b! I5 V( M7 @) g
$ x" n( [" _1 `( @In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
* g& { Q8 H5 \: h* V" `+ k# _* N
Related
: g. t9 f: u3 ^Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns; W9 ?/ m3 P/ H% h$ q) C
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’4 f7 Z6 R) C0 Z$ G: R- ~
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
/ f/ s5 e5 I$ N) }" e) }Advertisement2 T B8 Y, a, B* z" M& u" t
# q" D9 q& o1 }/ I( z
1 M0 K1 C4 }; p! v3 b" KThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.; x8 H9 C. m& e
% P/ x1 ?7 a2 @6 V“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”' O% M; j0 U1 [3 O/ S
( Y1 ~0 Q. z1 y* C; D+ }0 G/ z
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
$ ^8 ~. z2 S2 B) d; o* |
" Y( C1 g9 m5 ~: B+ cCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.$ H; C" i8 Y! {9 S X" u
1 q0 Z5 `( _4 Y. E6 LContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
( P: ] v- g* m: Y- p4 N2 r; _: w% h8 r4 {8 Y
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
: ?1 R9 o8 ?; s( z) q. t# q; s; F) A5 }1 V+ y7 R
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
0 |) n9 R# E0 v
) ~" Q# p9 m) s" @* q! C2 }) g+ G% LThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.8 L6 [ w. M0 y
% r% ]( x7 p7 \4 x: B- u& U( A" Z“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
% J, O7 ], w" ?2 P2 e' @+ b0 u7 c# ^# P
Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.: d- N i1 }8 ^5 Z" v- X
; J2 N u& z1 |) ?' r
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
