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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts/ n; Y2 [- A* z# X
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& Q- d1 I9 Z ?; ?8 wGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET" F* y- F1 i- E T& \% h! i
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$ P' @0 J! s6 Z3 B% _8 @( J! d1 F. gLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
4 g2 C w1 B6 tBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.. }& y$ E- B2 Y, i( `
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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6 Q/ b8 I, P9 GIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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7 ^8 w. b I6 d4 u+ |$ i' Z“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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7 E" C, r+ B2 I2 m! r" AHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.5 ]4 Q; R) i. g
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.; K6 ~+ F. v# V
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9 J- m+ }/ Y" GCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
/ Z* }. h, P# q& ?$ ECenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’) p8 q0 E$ D4 Z, N0 B0 ~& e T
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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: Y# l( Z1 X. j4 JFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.5 e4 T! `' M( v3 r0 W, I4 F
% o6 C' H8 v6 k7 e" H& ^# a4 NCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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( g& p; o7 L9 L( v6 i/ iContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.7 M7 j1 H' X* N# U- ^
8 L( S/ ]+ {9 i NThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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3 A' L* w1 S8 N7 l2 G& l8 G4 V. D. wMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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( t$ Q1 Z" V* ?5 z: O- I+ ^) p“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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1 O& P( G( i" ?) L7 ?7 uTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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" j' O- S9 I' s3 R- S( B+ w“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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