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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts, m& z7 E4 N! {: z. B8 X9 q# s
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6 u0 J1 X; i; ^+ W8 P% ^/ uGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET0 N* n" c) D2 i8 B7 E
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.* Y& E# R5 Z% I
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! q" Y% u5 n- U9 T1 o" Y# ?" k. o: n
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.+ A+ n: C! e2 ^+ J* H
2 k& Y# V3 U. q6 IThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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- L& C% s& b9 {: k6 M7 A3 [Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year./ p" w1 o1 s0 W
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn., x8 Q' o0 u& n+ r$ A, f/ [/ N
* k; d( T, }1 ?$ Y; `However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.. i; H6 d! |* J% w! n' q
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4 X/ L8 D/ {5 k4 QThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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1 ]0 R4 r: v# [9 F0 H2 xThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.# @- |* g- B/ d+ f0 L
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.5 f% ^: _) ^4 ~: n8 _. @
1 X2 t" l7 W1 G2 rContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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: R! l/ Q4 y! G; c& }% K0 l' PThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.# o+ H" h. [2 T3 D: ?
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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Q2 l- F8 V. ]The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.+ C9 Q. `7 k4 V+ G6 y$ g
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.0 t/ x6 O7 {/ L% a0 U( W1 r
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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