 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
4 o( i: v1 p W m* k7 W8 I+ J: Z2 m: F7 ^7 L4 Z
Republish Reprint9 O9 L5 W& W0 X
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
& o# F3 o8 h* q( N- K3 lMore from Gordon Isfeld6 f6 v3 ~- i. z6 F y& \' ]
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
H3 h# u8 K |BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
+ d& @9 z0 Z4 d1 G1 e7 M: B3 L1 @! n Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More/ }' O. P% r9 g2 i A& c9 ~
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
* R; T& [/ O4 E/ M) @
9 ^3 i* K% c: O" YThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
. B4 \* w4 w' ~ C$ M2 u1 ~# j4 E
. p" Z/ u* x- wIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”6 l' a2 S7 R* y; Q' G
+ m- _1 E& ~* a7 U3 a# e/ W
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
* c+ |* c$ @+ M/ W! ^3 Y' z- k/ k
; R# z0 A, X q+ x! O“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
5 R; f+ X0 z N: K0 M, y; q" Y4 P$ x( N9 m6 D+ r
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
5 J5 q7 c- e% _" v) f5 Y) c6 Y# M1 C- }' @0 @
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.+ J1 {1 H1 Y! i, V
* t8 {! h, W& H0 e( r
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.+ n h k$ Y3 ]
0 a, V8 N5 u4 D, I& LRelated
I* @- d- j! t& U" ^& \Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns" B# q, c% P' O/ B+ l
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
' Z. X' R% G: [) x" v3 [; W% ZThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over% F+ E/ ?' @% F+ @1 m" _# N8 l
Advertisement- p2 W7 P& b4 l! b7 ?2 h
6 q# I1 v, D, t& k* q5 M! c' F' D# `
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.4 X7 g! N: P0 `
" F( F( H; b$ ~* c
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
- d6 c2 Y" G% y$ B- p i7 Z% O' h
' P/ v& o9 m s/ M5 G: ?2 pFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
+ \2 J: b/ @2 E6 E: Q6 c g4 v$ z( U4 W; j+ Y6 @9 e! [
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
4 {3 S( r1 d: t+ K% d: z: q) q! F- x8 Q( `$ k% Z$ e3 ]) ]) ^
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.0 }/ q" p! G! M% A( `2 A
, k1 c+ U2 x# D! Y( i: SThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
( Y0 A1 b" p/ N L5 c9 k2 d' N% q v' T1 X4 z& P
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
a" B h7 B8 L" I4 `: U
5 H3 W! `8 {6 _ cThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
) h; f2 Y" |. s4 Y$ d5 o
, N# K9 y. ~8 l“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.2 |% f% z! r; g* s" L% U
4 {0 J6 E: h5 C
Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.$ y4 {4 @5 y5 e P8 F9 n
0 ~; `' F. X4 [+ \) P
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
