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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts- M c$ v3 a7 ^! n* ~* z }# m
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9 d- |+ J6 [ o! E3 n7 @Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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: j+ m3 s7 H+ I. |6 uLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.5 I* F' b5 w4 K1 O+ l% T2 a+ j2 f! O
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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7 [3 B9 A) Q- h& K+ |OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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/ a }9 x6 k+ h$ z3 n% O sIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”8 I! K! I- f$ h% Q) _7 o* o
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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' h" }$ m1 a& Y, n“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.9 r0 G1 N. v5 p$ s8 C# d4 w2 X
6 {) C+ }+ {& c# [/ T7 ?As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.+ u* o0 }5 r8 P% V1 k$ }) q' Y
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.5 u7 J& T/ i" r+ X" Z+ e
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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( ~6 ?- j6 w s5 n% M; e4 zCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns9 s# v" j+ ^+ z; N* ?$ l/ B! K/ o# j
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
, q! P$ Q: X' ^8 i/ P7 GThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over* \/ m# L. H: |2 b5 v
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; l/ W' m7 `" Z, `0 qThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.5 A8 w7 `# y6 @2 X/ `
' g" }: y6 \ r: v( m“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.; ~# f' j% P4 z c& ?* [: D9 R
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.' W/ V# C" i+ ]# _' x/ D$ d, p
- }, Y1 @: ^8 {8 O+ Q3 v/ o" u, wMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.' B2 {7 H( M5 I1 g
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.8 M' s, R$ l! _7 L0 @! I
! g3 E, I& {0 T3 T) `0 B _8 |“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.8 R9 e4 v7 L) B: F( U$ A$ M. k+ @
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.5 Y) P, _; I4 s3 G9 ~! r8 R
K0 @8 M! U. u- ^" D& S$ `. Y“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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