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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.) ^8 W+ R3 [* o; E0 c
# N- C9 v8 E" S# vBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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/ N) m5 E. i# Q) I/ f+ z7 O; NHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."( k4 {" t! S7 H( v y# |; Y
; J. Y+ V- J2 U' Q- }5 p6 aThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.5 G T$ c* [. o
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.% _, z9 R+ E3 S- E
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. 4 p2 V! P# a+ d+ ]7 Q9 h
1 S6 K1 G3 ~2 b4 kYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run./ O+ ?* c7 {) X7 X
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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