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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?: {+ R: V+ e3 F. Z) v& g
! D7 D" E5 H4 C8 R$ nBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.( K( h' R5 o4 B9 u J* H5 _
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.
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BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." 3 {/ v) w4 X$ n f; |! U0 }
3 y( l3 o8 m5 u) [2 E0 M2 Z) B0 P8 _2 IHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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$ n; c0 [( T' \7 y; x. OThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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" `- p# G( L4 yIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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; l- ~. k# j4 ?7 u$ @+ p" }But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. : K+ f" P0 s, g! `4 u; j
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.* W8 r J8 f0 r# F
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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