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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further? y. g9 H+ Y& k' W9 [
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.2 e4 @3 p5 m. e3 q0 C, |8 e, c8 u
# A* ]2 o) G) g' w7 W; mBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." ! v* u1 f: o' d6 c5 p/ _, {
! O: O7 s% Y u. w Y6 p. MHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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+ |3 n2 C! \. TIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.6 O1 o8 e1 G/ Q4 U+ b! {: {) Z5 Y
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. 3 o0 a k4 X/ E% ?4 E/ i5 \5 I
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.6 q0 _- e& \- V' L
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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