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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
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The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:% Q2 {& D8 a& t% J( H
" ]. w- h8 y* p" G9 Q" W1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
. Z$ M$ x5 O- H, f8 O3 h$ |; X2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
4 {% ^8 B+ c2 d. `% n0 y3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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发表于 2019-5-15 08:37
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发表于 2019-5-15 14:43
