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- y+ J9 M- M5 Z0 X2 S Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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7 T+ C; ?! L/ F* SThu, January 11, 2007
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5 f8 f1 _+ a( l# _9 p( FPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
3 K, L$ j6 h0 B1 Y$ \6 i1 r" KBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN( O' a4 v* G9 B D' _6 [
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. d6 C1 b: o6 p8 k3 i, k
7 p3 c' r( a+ V9 NMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 1 p, d8 r, }; A! W5 j3 _0 A+ }
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 5 @. ^6 t+ V( o. k$ q. [
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ' h) @% a+ z8 m5 |8 ]. _
% n" L) ^& ~/ C4 q1 J"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! V' [& w3 L i+ K* ?1 A
, W; J5 T! `3 T0 \) q6 J) h5 dStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. - s/ g7 X2 G% B* f3 k. E8 O; {
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ) ^7 n; Q% k' L) b
4 H5 ~6 a {8 O' v# [+ o% l"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ) A w5 Z3 U/ w1 \8 t) b$ e3 `
" c7 |* ~& e* u: P3 F4 ^+ u. w7 I4 U8 V"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 0 R+ E3 ~+ M& N" G
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ' t/ b8 v h: M, P. [$ ^
$ L3 S0 n$ s r2 ^8 [* [" qExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. " p! |/ r$ q7 b% s) [* {
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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1 I8 @* x' E% M+ r( r7 x% ]* F yHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. % N$ e$ e- m: \8 V/ p5 H
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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" v) i0 E0 j8 m# x4 QYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ! a0 B/ |+ \* h$ ^ n, ^1 X* M
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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; v$ S3 {! E7 zLet the good times roll.
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