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Y/ [1 ^1 R9 g: _ C0 eThu, January 11, 20073 \- ~- X- d% c+ D: u$ R6 x
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20074 s9 ~; o8 N" B U8 g6 g
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN; o4 v' S* }. I' r9 _9 @$ P
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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' ^" G& G2 j$ B6 y4 p/ _But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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% g/ H6 r9 y0 R1 ?0 ZDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ' T V$ E% _$ E2 k6 _1 w
3 X5 Y4 `4 q" i. J# E8 ^% f'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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" f5 s( S9 L$ _"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. , i) F' `! n0 X* X0 X
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ) N0 e% t4 X5 Q6 E1 C6 ~+ M( {" b
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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8 l2 k6 d* C- P" ^ TStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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% Y8 N+ w# f; l1 d"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. # ^$ q" I. Q w8 F6 e$ M
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 6 K# m2 X: c* F! L
' |( v, n& ]* K1 |- x( s" @+ x"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. % r1 I; w: _$ Q4 ~5 N u$ f
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 8 }6 Q" F! L" W6 a
$ I" K3 E5 B7 k7 O/ ~" M E) T0 xHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ( S' h) K! d: m; h2 R' r
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . ~4 n& Y# @% h$ n8 A4 U
- M2 r; r A; B! \1 b uOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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, c! |- I# g: R$ m( m& h$ h4 K* yHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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4 V; R$ l* Q) O \$ d/ M"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 5 a( p/ k7 [6 y8 V! I
; l* d$ J* F2 p' mSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. $ M4 x3 u$ J# L% T( E0 Q
3 J+ \! y9 c' t! }- Q# T( pYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 6 b% m' r2 h( n" H6 s+ W+ d+ x+ E6 b
& }0 |/ Q: ]5 r% u"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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7 s% x) G+ T2 D8 s- {) jLet the good times roll.
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) h5 i+ N W' V% ?7 s$ `) vNext story: Building permits hit record5 m, ~) p+ z, W0 N
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