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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
4 f" G5 w- {4 j$ g Y. y' h; }By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN- q5 h( l4 s2 E7 B. T- n
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$ X$ H1 L J0 m0 ]- S9 f: V; cThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. % @, G2 N* i; C* I: n7 N
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 0 \8 T K O2 Z( o, J; S+ I
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 0 _% w1 R) b: n$ v" k' l2 s u
% N: S- q6 k8 R+ u/ WDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. # s6 g" z! I8 |3 @ D) B3 J' n
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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7 ~& s( j' y3 l8 g ?; D1 U"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ! F) r6 @' U2 h% Q% L6 V/ g$ n- Q
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 2 v \1 S# G2 N; F
1 D2 _ K( r G ]& k: w( E. b3 ^1 QCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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( w8 |# F4 z, h" {Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 2 Z! g* E0 w* @. `% V
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. + G/ N, X3 B8 p5 M$ v, `
2 }; G! f7 l/ P"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. $ _, R. `3 C- D
5 b* P- y* p8 D& G"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 3 e0 p, W+ z3 d- s. Z
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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; k3 G( e9 m9 A4 A3 SHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." $ H) Y* K0 F6 }" K( o7 \% b* L7 T! V/ B
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. - ]0 \3 D% ?0 T1 H4 Y* j
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. $ s: O* B3 Z l g6 _/ t
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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1 Y- e0 G2 y- ?( R; J" L/ s"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. - m; M, Z0 F# B7 x3 i
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. / }7 _5 w1 | F1 q0 L) R7 |3 x
$ K: X( T$ J2 T, V"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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1 K% L1 V& p" n* p! D) ?5 hLet the good times roll.
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
