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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com4 T. m) d7 E+ _/ @
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0 | a9 k. {4 S' Q, c& Z$ J7 v In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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4 h* ^7 z% W& x/ `Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20072 e1 D& Z _7 o# f, W y& Q* Z4 f
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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+ a. N; \: B, y' @: [% W e/ J2 aThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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2 c i4 c' R+ U. | d6 K1 T1 xMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. " B, i! B$ u9 c& l& J! Z
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 5 ?1 _$ D& p- j! v4 @, J
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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% k, R0 f4 I; i+ g'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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3 Y9 ^9 D8 O% {' m# Q) J"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 9 P: j& t" S+ o
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. $ j) L" d; ~7 o p
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 8 v' x V1 X2 Q
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 3 [# a0 H# {9 F" U$ j
% Z7 F) @0 m3 ~3 z+ H$ _3 s"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." : _1 x: M c" C( R
4 B) o7 c3 s! \Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. . ~8 _+ r1 [& ?3 z; F: t' b
/ z' G+ r% S( j$ K! i"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' z/ f+ n2 P( G
* J5 l4 C( Q) C. r* F. U& U) pNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT * K$ y# b1 u9 N3 Z" Q2 K2 Y
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 9 x1 B# K2 m3 D- D2 c% d) l
& T2 J3 U1 b' LExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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9 f; Y* W8 r3 c8 A9 Q z# SOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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' ?0 U( J1 [! h! K3 S8 p' |His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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# G) U7 S- z# g" L( _; I) dSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 7 T( {0 ?$ g; @; [9 G) o
( ~! t7 n% R* y Z: S2 I8 Z$ pYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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0 h7 Z- S# J% G8 `: c! s"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 0 e. b( d8 | W& i4 I3 G; ], g
9 B6 b& O; V; O! s! w7 D9 T+ P' t( dLet the good times roll. : s8 }) q9 W- Z4 w" `+ N) {
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Previous story: Bottom Line
" S8 X* q8 ?( M2 Q- q0 [1 T. GNext story: Building permits hit record9 P3 y( D5 E: @$ j, P$ q
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