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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 2007; }, ] i3 H( A0 c! ~
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007# B+ A, ^% W' S L, W3 g& S2 i) D: f' ]
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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5 \/ } f* w% r3 p Z9 GThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. + r2 l' y! A j
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 3 Z* r% z: P! x
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 M; O5 J/ q$ W. C* V' C: v
2 E8 _4 `2 y% a8 Q4 NShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. / K1 n" z4 T" w- \- O' p
& R& p! e% f3 ~; w- H"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. / R% r; X& d( i( a5 H
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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; v. D4 ?7 p+ ` \* q"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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2 ?" u- x. j" G. L! c"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 0 o' A' W: \2 l8 o, ^. W3 P4 E4 {) x
. O1 W0 P, v7 |+ t* x"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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$ ?( g' A' v. \- p1 C# F"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ! @7 F: m/ H( w7 Z
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; q" S" v! u; A9 f8 b( |3 `He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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- ]& {$ }; z$ r) L5 lExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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8 j3 P! {8 ~+ b4 b0 `! _Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. , E' t$ y8 ]- l h7 N5 B
( a) E% T3 P# |: _; E8 c5 [His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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$ V! V, N3 t. |, R"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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: d* i5 ^) u( p1 u( `6 O0 ?1 qSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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2 F, K6 s0 k8 @& J, ~# m"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. & o1 K: J: j- r: g9 x5 t
6 a$ z: z2 N/ d/ V0 F) \Let the good times roll. / @, U V5 M3 N
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
