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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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5 | w; c$ h! Y3 L. E5 Q; n9 P In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.8 o# z% J9 f. z6 z' R
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+ g. D7 M, Z0 `) bThu, January 11, 20076 u! L2 z: w' `. W5 J& D& ]
+ s, ?& h7 \2 n3 n$ S6 ZPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007" _& d- K: x. b: ^
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN5 g' \% `& u6 w
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, N2 E, K6 K, U; e* x0 c6 FThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 5 j- ^; M0 _/ A" X2 E
. Y" h/ J2 A( N3 R7 u HMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. . ~5 C* I& u- Y( D8 n5 ?: v
6 Q, |; k5 H1 G, i' q1 OBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ' x. C, ^* u& {: F, P4 R
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. : [/ [' p- f' ~+ j
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." & j" g- L4 k. ] z% q8 b+ j8 z1 R3 `
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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) X! s1 A, e9 v6 r"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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! w i2 `$ f" {5 q"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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. ~% d ^8 @' {6 D0 mStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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/ Q) k& H& p) r0 W1 I, `# f8 zHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ' o: V7 ~1 T+ G" ]; z
4 ~! L/ D3 }% R' t% b9 MOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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5 E7 i7 d& i: n. S7 N, XHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. & ^9 L% f3 E+ D1 e
* |# h4 e: A5 N5 V: u+ i/ E1 q"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. + X% j8 P' p$ e" f
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ' l/ J3 g T7 G) V- L; Q6 P! S5 @
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. , O% U6 C- Q8 |5 Y8 j" I5 I3 u3 O6 T
6 ]+ X" ?5 z' H- w" eLet the good times roll.
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! m/ Y8 T, i/ Y. e- ~) pPrevious story: Bottom Line
5 r' Z4 a. p! q; o0 l. ?Next story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
