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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.& J, e3 w" T3 z6 N+ D4 Y% y6 Q
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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% y. T9 T' t) hPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20073 R+ P' {6 o. Z0 q& J5 F
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN& ~ U, m; n5 Q& Z9 P0 r7 Q: l! ]
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3 @9 s6 r' E, s- n2 A1 @They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. . ?# r( \4 `% D# r
' w, q7 c2 C3 @" r, l, N8 YMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. $ X1 |) q( F7 x9 Q
" h- Y3 C5 ^! D GDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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* T( l8 r0 `0 ]; ?4 {"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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6 Y% P7 F* i! n9 fShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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$ O+ \: R _5 l8 g"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 4 W& `! H# o7 G
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT $ x T6 S3 A* ~8 w* \
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 9 ]; q& x# H, n) `8 e5 @) Q
& T' X- O) B* R5 @3 w4 {( DExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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y5 e w8 s: F7 x3 H; gOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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" h+ a* |0 v! ^His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ! p3 B0 {5 W* m
& S/ d* Y6 z* n/ l8 q4 zSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 3 d3 Y) x2 \* {" s6 E( L
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ! j4 ~ F- L) h. Q7 U5 z) ]+ m1 d
) K( t r# w. q9 k' ^# O/ f"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 4 n' g( i" O, B6 l
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Let the good times roll. 5 C6 L" |, f* b! @
% q1 e5 u. F# cPrevious story: Bottom Line
( M) G' A+ w* G4 J, t+ v ?Next story: Building permits hit record
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