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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.
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& m+ w: w4 e: rhttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html$ F7 Y/ z9 ~& |; R/ [
& S$ g. `) ~4 z. lOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.4 i9 J( a9 ~& e9 {
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.# Y6 F0 p7 k- _0 Z
4 f" l" n7 [! n" o: kIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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# d3 s+ f, R: e* ^9 MWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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8 L3 {- k) G8 W! _8 [At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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8 r7 ~, w+ m3 S"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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! t1 s" c, X* @! M! K$ A7 T4 y: dThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.$ v0 Y3 T1 K/ d J0 s1 h
\& |# S6 p2 f: HOf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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Burleton knows how they feel.. v' W* c( f1 F; c( c3 n+ ~' }" `
1 r% ^, K% ?% p+ ]/ Y' R# N ~"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.* {5 W2 i, F( w _, }8 O
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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?! }4 N3 u% aWith ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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5 g: E% a1 k2 z, SAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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& ]$ ~5 k$ J; i& U/ XIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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6 P- a% H+ V0 u4 ^+ V2 l7 B( h; hMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.+ C& e1 @, f/ a1 y6 v3 p
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.; W+ k: B9 L. h5 F. X
$ Z E) I- Q& pDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.% B* h6 K8 I. b' S; G( `: P5 u) s& V
# M7 F: I2 ^# L1 }' O8 g" T' r, x"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.7 j8 k+ }- z3 {! Y. G* x S9 z
+ N# T. F' \) }7 j, |"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.: l, U! H8 M1 N4 V( j& t
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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