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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& o. Q4 N+ q4 Y. N

$ y2 i  C6 X* {8 q/ A2 z$ KMarket Commentary
4 C; f1 |5 p, l! REric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ ^, O( \2 C( j) [1 p& w  }) {/ h% ~
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager- c# i$ U1 t5 l- i7 r; w+ o; o' F! e
Signature Global Advisors# j! S/ Y5 D3 _

/ K1 L. Q2 M" ^0 ?7 |
  t+ n: X  b  Y1 h" d5 i$ Z1 sBackground remarks  p# \3 l3 ]. A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
- t* j, r" F7 bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ x0 Z9 {& \; {$ R, X2 q! `* K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 {4 K# b$ D. I; w& ]" Xadjustments.
2 i" `) u0 d4 T  Y% K9 B9 P" @ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. ]$ q& A0 K, I1 y2 {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 o( n6 S) I, Y( {
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% Y, K6 p8 [. K6 |9 `( wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 r% `5 u2 E$ a1 T: R
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 _2 t% W9 Q2 [/ Y3 V# u) jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' @+ u, H3 i( Q. ^4 Z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
9 }( L, F! d7 x4 Pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  n8 E$ M$ L4 {# T8 B  f( j Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 a# h, |* [: S) D* @8 h% C
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 I9 U4 c- ?7 V1 x# h
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# Y& Q! `: C* q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- i; A# k' _; ^1 mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may/ V! l9 I$ X3 y5 P
impose liquidation values.; u7 f4 ?/ x7 n6 V- x* ]
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ W. K0 E; i/ ~4 @& F* `4 t( o9 z2 VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! p3 K. n! S  i& _  Q/ U8 o8 ?  H$ Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) J/ K- V3 q0 F$ W! S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
# W, g/ N& T! R8 c: x/ d% ?- ?+ _: z' B* e7 F1 ~% q, Z2 U6 G7 p$ R
A look at credit markets' ~3 J* c4 x" _7 d$ x. J( Q8 K
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& Z+ k5 @9 P$ u+ P' U
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 _( `1 n* j6 p8 v* g High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% e! X# P) G. b  J8 `) j
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 e7 G& u% G2 _+ L: H0 Jbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have3 D+ W! u. f# c( q, a7 b
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 U: R9 P2 n: y2 P! a, |2 m3 WCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 U' J/ Z/ R3 P: m$ p) ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* m) g9 D1 v, z! X5 _' t+ e0 F& d Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: v/ {: e9 v- R, t5 S7 N
finding financing.
: z- |' O+ X" j, e8 i Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* B' k. ^$ @' s) q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 D6 k9 c0 c) A Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ O4 {; d5 b/ @/ L2 ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; q$ \4 M6 L/ q- d! A; Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) _$ t- V* m+ ]/ ~9 b/ S
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 R' K8 P, G$ ^ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- Z7 p+ `! g0 J, Y2 E# U" Ntoday.
0 k: I( D! L; D8 s6 o# y+ z. Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 S" N7 Y# t9 o0 |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda3 M; {7 {" n( W6 @4 W
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ _2 n, p. r% A9 C' Othe Greek default.
0 F# u1 h8 r$ K3 a0 \" K$ i As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 o  }* X, [$ W! i
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* e. D# N5 N  m6 I2 g2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign2 h6 E& U# d6 o2 {! K: K2 P
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ z* Y0 s2 W$ D' A* c/ S! v6 \
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 k4 @4 @: r' b5 R; c- {7 M) F
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. u4 v1 |+ ^+ l" W
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
5 @3 w6 L' d- f6 z3 `* n. a% N/ J9 R9 V) J
Beyond Greece: v" i  d3 M& W
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; K& _! u; h9 ]$ x; t* C1 b
but that was before Italy.
8 S1 ?: }) |6 y! _7 K- m It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; e4 x) X+ [9 @% t It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ J. c* ]" _" e0 ]8 ]6 _% |% `Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& W) [' `% S5 u$ P

* p/ w0 k+ S8 h% O) \' nConclusion
; c0 b5 Z& R! y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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