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本帖最后由 小曲 于 2011-6-8 14:55 编辑
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% C7 k7 Z6 q/ V, ]Signature Market Roundup
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: [% g" Z$ J4 K- R7 o6 u( _Eric Bushell
: N" f; N9 E( p9 @- zSenior Vice-President,# @8 S9 n# P, g* _/ ? q5 F
Portfolio Management
. ~5 ]' u+ e6 D, Z$ w" Iand Chief Investment Officer
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自lehman倒台后美国第二阶段的风险投资的恢复到四月底基本结束了。第一阶段是从2009三月到2010四月, 但被欧洲的债务危机和美国的减慢中断了。第二阶段是从美国联邦储备局2010年九月份开始的非传统的缓解政策,被称为QE2. 这个运作造成投资者抛售美金抢购房地产,商品期货,贷款,和股票。现在这个政策趋近结束,美金趋于稳定,这会帮助美国财政缩减,解除政卷市场的压力。面对美国QE2政策的成功,而世界其他地区都非常不稳定,现在可能是时候将投资定位到中性风险。1 D3 ^" h: n. o: X
' @2 C, N- Z1 z4 N& t: [/ @The second phase of the post-Lehman recovery in risky assets& D* h( d$ T# c/ N
may be drawing to a close in April 2011. The fi rst phase0 g! v" Y+ r4 a
ran from March 2009 to April 2010 and was halted by the& t! m/ e! |) o5 O& q9 ~1 Q: T! a
European sovereign crisis and a U.S. slowdown. The second3 Z- M2 S4 L. C* U @7 x
phase began with the U.S. Federal Reserve launching an7 E X9 D% r* F1 u& I$ x9 a
unconventional easing policy dubbed QE2 in September' H7 k" P; V5 J& A7 W3 B
2010. This action saw investors exit the dollar and scramble% }& f+ r* P: n- A* {9 {1 P. g' }
for real assets ranging from property to commodities, credit/ q" z5 O1 X6 g2 V8 U
and equities. As we near the end of this policy, prospects
" _& o6 [/ `' v; o: w) jfor dollar stabilization grow; this would be helped through
6 ]( t) d: S$ e: m) j6 ?U.S. fi scal retrenchment and relief on the part of bond
7 s( n! j2 b+ W# Y; j/ hmarkets. Given the success of the policy and the heightened
# F5 |) ?9 h) V* e' Y! X9 ^4 ]uncertainties elsewhere, it may be time to move to a more$ U6 R9 ] q; o
neutral risk positioning. |
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