固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

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Yields Down. Rates, Not So Much

Canada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.
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1 O5 @% g- y: s3 T# e, ^2 DWhile there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  
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6 U# Y8 C3 j, J0 Z" zAt the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.
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One lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
9 ^, r0 W/ U3 z" l7 E& t/ V: dThe lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”
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Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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! r4 z7 o( p) n" t Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.

0 m3 i4 D, Z& w' Q3 r, m" KSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.

BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."

+ T5 V2 J$ H' \3 A7 E5 z8 CHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."

The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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3 S8 Y0 o; \+ L0 v5 x1 BIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  
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' c7 h4 A9 g- I3 f7 PYou’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？