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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + s' r/ s& _. _! c; `4 N1 l- G6 I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! }- M+ ~# M1 N# c5 J# ]middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 w* K* x( p. X o# Pgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 d" R- A0 B2 q3 f5 i6 z" iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 l6 G: H! R; {9 m& z( T1 ~
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
/ \0 i* {: v. E; Usaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" U9 V; E2 y7 q3 A& V/ ]3 y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability% |) \' l( s* l/ R) s2 @3 y$ X" p" v m+ d
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, k4 K$ V0 |/ ]. n; p0 c' p RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& K- \0 n' V) w) Jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 j* V( X5 U; Y" }6 z" ~which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& s3 L4 d9 a3 R+ I- W" ~- x
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' P+ X5 m7 G* \+ Q: w0 a
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% k. l% R' w+ c- w: B5 F( Lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 L. P9 @4 K2 @0 p+ k4 |home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ X, j2 d$ c! o
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; Q! Q. M% [% U5 p+ _standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
+ L- P5 h9 P4 Z( V; zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ J d- E, V( h3 \% \
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 O6 G2 |) k2 S1 Y, V4 F# Q y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 a& v& ~4 A6 O5 r% g' H: i9 ]
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, {) w# S/ L* _$ A3 N' I
historically depressed levels.
0 R; q1 s: a' J2 J; I7 o Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' V2 ^% y: D1 @3 m3 E& D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 K, _( U8 b1 Q; W6 P( eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
1 q/ O! G/ \; l& F" Q7 L' @$ yhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 P0 U3 ~6 M# r3 f3 v/ E0 f/ e: @enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 C. }. t% W2 Z* j2 X E. o: U6 C+ M* kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
5 `6 J* N% V6 M* ?! k RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! M3 x, B0 l/ E! Scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary$ w) w" P3 m( R b* v
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." o+ X+ @! M8 ?( L+ T7 F3 m( h/ `
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
/ @/ [' i" |" [% o* T7 wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: A' D. `% G- j1 r! s- Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 B& }+ C& ^* {$ b0 C( w1 otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- u5 J1 c) r% z2 F8 \- b% I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# Q4 O5 e$ r$ c! q' [5 Hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 W+ v( v1 F6 ?7 k5 d4 Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% G* W- q9 ]5 I; w: oincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
w7 P; K+ R7 l% ?; _condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 [' j0 P4 D/ O8 v f0 x- `% I* Y- [
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 f) Z. A2 `2 ?8 I( D
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& w5 M( E: \+ {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ p* z4 E# J- ^; L F5 k# H
: n4 w& l7 w3 @
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{1 Y5 k* X# P" y0 r/ J5 n% d Highlights from across Canada:
9 G# P+ {0 I( b8 B+ W% m! \/ |( M- T9 W; d1 {
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 y, ~8 r! O3 A- c! H; H' A intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 s6 f$ ]9 d; j8 ?! `
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# q- H1 k8 Q+ C2 O only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 V7 c, |9 w4 s& N! M0 q since about the middle of 2007.
- v' R4 d) B6 n; x - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# i2 t# i! K! q3 b" t" K+ J- P
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# n- \: T5 \6 i. s# ^3 H
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; P& T3 K5 p4 p! W! ]& K
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely2 r) g7 E" }/ x/ W
poor affordability levels.
( T7 r, s, I6 z8 b9 e" d1 y3 o - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* q9 E0 D2 Q* l- n6 _# ^
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* b$ }% B, _7 o2 z8 z% t- _4 N prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. n. I8 m3 P' J6 F3 ^7 @ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to4 Y& `/ l9 ^' F& }* D* U3 @) K
minimize any downside risks.( E( Z# `: p% r) Q! a5 u6 e) \! p! c
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" q! I; G) s w, S+ N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 Q. v, z# ~2 t5 ?" V& D
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) R6 f0 p1 A- W h. { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% [) u/ ^& ~6 `+ F/ T
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) L( o3 H8 ]& O& w' g8 ?
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 ]$ _% h; B2 Y, _. t# E& Q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' j1 P/ _% w6 h. R( ]
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% p- T7 p. X. B# n7 e8 M reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 @: _4 X4 |5 Z; N4 b5 b, v0 q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% E& d2 R3 U- B modestly in recent years.* `# k1 w& a& t; W+ S
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# R8 E9 r0 D: {- U6 J% u( h- Q1 j! u general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) ?# ?; A! g) X0 t
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: j. d5 L& L `! R) b. }
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 A! q m1 r" Z! w following two years of deterioration., X$ o+ |* g2 r& D
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