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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; w& E. x- g5 o: a. F TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
w: F6 g A, fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. M, B$ c/ ]- d% d
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- i+ S' |: v- |
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.' V( X: [2 Y' @) C9 ^/ O4 v( H
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& I* P# a& u \# T
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 ]5 b- O# P8 d e3 z, uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability2 m9 T0 q/ P/ a3 m7 p, p! a- K8 I- ?
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 f4 U" C; ]+ f* D
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! B5 {) S( h* i2 \- ]" g$ {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 u3 O$ a# _( z D0 ~- cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, f/ T+ R3 V, _7 _- z, ssustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
# u! ~5 M$ z0 z' j The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 c- @: y$ l- ?, F1 ?
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( ^# U J0 _! F, r) a: khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. Y$ p( Y, Q0 G8 v2 \6 g# j8 p7 a
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& f0 a( n, \8 G* X# tstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 }5 m5 @* ?" {/ Z+ l) R0 i) _" N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* k# G' E: {: z+ e4 T According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 S# M4 Q! i, c! z' p2 n" imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 \/ F& l: M% U+ \* ?4 v
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) F( s: W2 J$ Q3 n) c+ f' ~8 yhistorically depressed levels.
1 h/ l; ^; U3 r$ g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: l& P$ G$ o9 t; l, X9 n# e
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 z5 m4 v" x3 X: M' ~2 Z \+ cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 I. g) N* q* w1 Uhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
/ p1 K) q8 Q6 K. }. fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( \- R) [0 ~9 c, M4 I% @
months ahead," added Hogue.
: k1 i! X: P; O; ?1 W5 T3 H& \4 O RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest/ C4 r( T' ~# M1 m6 G$ j3 Y
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 Z0 u- s. q' n0 ?/ b" u42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ f- l' `' [% Z" c' H9 L( f" f
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for! e0 X: n/ I8 G& E& p& P7 e
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ j: `$ U$ f$ R. Z0 i, A! a0 w6 D
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 j1 j L$ E8 W* Y) d7 mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ q2 P5 @: ^4 @+ {) u& C/ N
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 ~" H# _9 {' s$ u4 x, a0 d" Kbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) _: }9 Z. U. X5 @# g1 sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ E6 k) q4 w" e8 `" E
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 y( q$ U4 p9 n- o9 {& j6 M
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
5 k8 w9 o% J, q. l$ s* B* F$ ^/ zFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# F9 E; \& s' rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( @5 t, B$ C( p0 N6 `
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' u& B2 C, Y/ S% |- Q' U8 ?
" d+ ]- n8 l; `0 Q5 V <<
' R( z6 N7 `" E' z6 B Highlights from across Canada:3 `- A7 S3 m# M7 S) p! h3 p
: i+ n1 A8 B4 ~' }
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 A& B* B9 p- W
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; P* E- c% Y- T# G% `& E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% ?; Y8 M$ E3 x# f& E/ R/ b only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 N i3 T, J& c6 C since about the middle of 2007.0 ^0 d" { h+ e! {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
/ y1 G, L# j/ _$ u8 a frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ V A& v( A2 b; H9 g decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 G: B: @% K! S) b6 s! l
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% `) g; T1 k: m poor affordability levels.
5 u5 [# \8 i" Q# m7 t7 { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! t( r% O' a M4 O! ` vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
$ ?9 ]* e3 X+ q& [* E% c4 S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.. t- n. T1 U- q6 |+ b
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: j& L/ J7 \2 c8 ?5 R minimize any downside risks.
! x; G+ T7 u5 u$ d9 M7 v; ? - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ ]' n% c/ X5 |/ I8 `# Y/ T conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 o9 p# @5 m- M: T. V
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' w4 S7 g! e g4 i3 @: ` 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 {( O3 [. a6 A$ S+ @8 q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ w( {9 |/ S: ]6 `5 E6 ~
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! l( B+ A* a! |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, e$ F( c5 \- A3 [
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up! u l0 k4 z0 u3 Q F6 }9 E& U
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; n% [* o, P$ Z' x9 q5 H& p( G4 M
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- e+ V5 s* r! K& s9 @' F0 P4 S
modestly in recent years.+ b# n" { [7 M
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* J. f& N) X* q- V general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ Y% e( e1 q+ W5 m% i l* H% U spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 d0 {5 n( Y; k z- Z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ c: t5 l. O6 ~# z% f
following two years of deterioration.5 `9 k. C6 z; W! c( W7 }- n
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