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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + F# J" U; ^+ [& ^4 ]& M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the" W) q, J* P4 b+ V
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ e6 r( s9 I+ ], X
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, L* J* V( v: O' v% h4 |according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 }8 _, w6 y7 P- B "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& O' W6 J# n2 @/ N, H, r7 ^$ o
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ j4 W$ L3 S$ ?( l" ^3 ~& @
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% f4 E9 e( K. |4 `measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- z S) w |* o2 _
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ @( x7 J# f3 Y" ^# Y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" E5 g# x8 ?' e- a' i+ W6 ~which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 L+ B4 n5 y$ msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.) M% p# j }7 T- a6 W, t" l
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. ^7 l5 R& u$ r# a
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 Z: T& N! i* Ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
- E* Z; S/ l! d# a6 _/ f1 _: U2 JAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% { ^. ~7 C: Z# _* p4 L' o+ ~
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* D- O+ y6 \# S4 O
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- v0 R2 _. P: g
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, q l; f' [4 L9 l2 S- T
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 |" Q, u- ?' v% C4 W1 cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at- B, L4 ~3 A6 z
historically depressed levels.. k- j/ U [2 ~2 a. D# O% y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ D* V5 n8 z% b% [# h) K2 jof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 w" x" @9 o3 s1 ]* ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the9 X" I$ Z- B+ h1 y" v) Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! B, w" G8 u, V: _enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the) b! L, s8 |9 M2 {
months ahead," added Hogue.# R+ ^ t9 x5 q2 {" m% D
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* W/ l- |+ q& i9 H
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 \1 a6 m' {1 G' v
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 f. W T: w7 O! ?. o2 G The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. B# z' r+ v( [5 L* w8 M5 Xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 c# F4 j2 J; A' g/ P
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% @/ S; L0 i7 D6 v! e! L0 X
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 d" n( b# K9 A5 A, K The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 Z7 s& `* a/ |8 w. \
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property! T m* b+ J+ E# ^9 p7 P
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 ]7 w& q! H% f4 L7 z( {8 M: `
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 k" P3 f5 k# ]- W1 T9 R
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 V: a0 N$ L/ Y3 j$ p( I
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' L, B, @6 T1 `costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 I$ M) j$ B- Q/ T- ^
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' X6 }+ e/ Z6 z y; m
" r, B/ A* h' B/ V) Q% ? <<
8 t0 |. T9 l; S/ B7 Y Highlights from across Canada:
7 U! i5 ]# p: \+ h8 H% z+ X
( Y8 B: C H @: V6 g - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 ^. r# T. C0 C2 Y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 L% J6 [' M: [6 ?3 I$ Z% @) C4 e
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
p `: c$ S( ~$ j# j/ ^, ~' O& I0 l only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: m1 v8 `" M0 ~8 g% n! \ since about the middle of 2007.9 }6 N7 z5 R4 L+ z e* D+ \; A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; [$ T1 B4 n" P+ f" n! u8 [% ~% l3 W frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
l$ P, Q6 Q# v& p+ G4 e decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: _" Y, A) Y8 d7 f6 ?; ]: `. l largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ I; E3 u8 [2 j! A+ M5 n5 j1 Q poor affordability levels.9 J5 t( P5 ?& `% n6 S% E* Q# k* z* F
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 s9 Z6 x2 p2 u& E) R: p9 S1 C- C vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
, ?+ j5 [4 U' V' C8 e prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' `: ^! \0 b# L+ O; l U; Q& l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 z" P7 ]0 z. t& C( {$ T
minimize any downside risks.
j) P: I$ W; X1 }9 W; R! |7 U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, J; z+ J3 a9 n _0 d5 O" e# t) b conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 j. M" T8 c' n t- D; I unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ d: `& F8 n) P
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ `+ {; L/ I! Y1 A
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 _; I8 M% O2 K1 q( f
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# v y0 _" G" X
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus" o6 B! V' i8 X, }# z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' M6 d' N3 j% B% t% \4 _
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ c$ C/ E8 t Q& D; \ O+ k" y4 k
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
. ^! ~( H% R& Q4 M& x modestly in recent years.
3 ^1 I& R) b. O3 n; f) h - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% L- B$ E6 S* b general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) S5 f+ o% |) P0 {8 o5 X9 k
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( I# v/ b; c0 s- m7 Y( |
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 W* W; Z6 p# p* j5 ?/ Z
following two years of deterioration.+ q8 p2 O! ?& ?, \# J9 L8 U! V
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