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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* H; a$ y: a1 H. \7 f TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
/ l% W# \0 s2 Y# R/ P) Y( L8 S) rmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive Q/ C9 P6 u/ V7 e0 K8 l
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ j% i' O1 T2 R/ L7 S; `
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 w; J% N+ Y: f/ d' ^" s0 p
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 d9 S4 _% k" G r- ]+ |5 o
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
: @9 R- u6 k2 T/ u- yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 ?9 z' M( X9 ^+ v5 j
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# I; m3 K8 l# G) x
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is- s; c v) `# b/ ~/ o' n( n8 l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ z$ G+ U( }& m+ n1 A lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& B1 y, H: ~3 k) g) H
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 I$ U: y; L+ h0 Z+ v* S w The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- S& n! U; }9 N: D0 wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a* a5 l) j$ S8 P
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
6 t. G' M3 G) K9 s' UAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& O0 H7 u8 c p8 z+ k/ M cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 ?( U, h1 K$ |, Ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: t; S3 _ p3 v$ {2 c According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 ^7 @* T% ] `& ~3 b0 `" N: Z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
( T( m7 E: s" H# H1 j# Lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" E% X! }/ M9 Ehistorically depressed levels.
$ o, `( r( I/ c! u$ X, q Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' V- z8 @, y* c8 z* H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* j* P, L/ }, H$ C5 w* E: E6 k' N
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
d1 [( D" e, V" n4 @ k: thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& J- ^) u) \8 Penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, w+ }4 a0 x( s) f5 m2 Wmonths ahead," added Hogue.
* d ^. M# T3 j7 S3 _+ x) n RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; K8 l9 T5 c, j. _/ p0 h
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 \' P0 P2 O( l- y$ V6 |- N6 W
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 z/ y5 s3 _% _6 [5 z8 a1 J4 S The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 Q$ p8 E) q$ t4 ^2 a1 E
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
) n& l/ B$ z3 W( q1 X2 ocities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ N8 ]/ R. c& v4 [takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 x/ L& n+ c! k
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is' g* }1 |1 o' ]8 G4 i, m! r) f" b9 X
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( m- n0 F$ K! l8 R! Q0 Dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* l' f1 C1 X) A& K3 Yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% E1 l; { S# D4 G0 e2 U
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& A! o! l3 }7 @, l( m: U" F# b
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 u7 {3 O3 ?8 O4 t3 r, C# e( A
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, {/ c3 f, ?* H& l2 Fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# s8 Q; H, M* `6 c# l6 J7 N% `) w
/ k6 n Y5 ?, t9 J8 R( K. j <<! a% I) X" _ s
Highlights from across Canada:
. f) i$ {7 y1 j u2 _4 @! y b5 e- \! m7 I, q. u
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 c$ {3 Z. \9 C5 G! i0 o" L intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing# L/ Y3 E. V5 s
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
$ }& ?8 @2 L7 H* @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" T; o' k. k2 L/ O# Z7 X8 ~
since about the middle of 2007.
% O5 t" W6 N: ^2 A7 x. l3 v - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
4 n; A0 u1 x- _2 S frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to$ a) X) s$ o: y# m) e4 q1 T% `2 O
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" T1 o* l! q9 h& v0 ^/ G8 K3 T' Z
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. \; ^7 H' ^7 V! D7 V E
poor affordability levels.
. j/ h# g# D& K( ] - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 W9 S3 J1 Y/ S% N
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" U+ d2 f( }9 H6 C1 b/ Q" ^0 V7 z( ~ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 u1 Z H' t4 ^2 L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 D# L3 s" J1 Y4 n( [) W6 t2 G minimize any downside risks.0 g$ N j! L3 h
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( E; i# ~' i% C7 C, G- `
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 B/ ^) g2 S) [* d
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: g" S e" N( k5 q2 ]8 y 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 p) W( R5 D0 t+ V& R being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.( k3 }; K- n9 z" E& B
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 Z6 x" m' o( H3 K7 s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 b9 x) I7 R3 _8 N0 B
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ O2 `: H% X/ \4 n( n1 e reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be! r4 E: _0 f0 R$ u/ ?
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only" [" J/ O3 b1 I9 v/ o
modestly in recent years.9 T" P1 n9 @# [8 a3 a$ \: M- U
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) C% ~3 w1 B; T* T t x
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot. S# {; u. z# _8 t. H/ z' D1 n& k
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 K, q/ u& x& b2 h* A. V; W price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability# @7 S* y$ M/ y' c
following two years of deterioration.
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