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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
5 U u ]/ U1 ]1 ?5 G" Y7 v) n1 D$ g TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the% \8 e: l+ l \, B# x! g! E+ F9 M
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 E0 y" m0 A6 a& d; P- ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
; l' C: R" x& \5 y6 Qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 U4 ]* w0 i; Z7 ]
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( w, L0 ? a2 \6 xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 D+ y3 Y4 I- uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
$ c+ O+ S# l. _* s$ ~3 o# i; |measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ @2 J4 p; D9 l6 x" p5 r8 b' U. ^ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& @0 g. V% o3 T9 u% _) t1 F. Zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 {5 W. v" N+ l) ^- {$ ^; g1 _6 ?
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 o% C1 T8 @% u) P( f5 msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 b- R% G* r: H6 _! } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* [5 g. Z+ P5 W R4 a q& [; Mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 M: f0 D2 y# v) rhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: }; Y; b# x" V: M
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' i1 a# y5 ~: G. x( f; a4 @1 V' J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
1 L+ B% {0 Z1 o; Z- b6 f& nthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* }0 c, r* @, k. R, C% i& ]) m According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% J& U) H% q, n0 p, q; q$ b
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in: |1 Z) F0 `5 D
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 m) R) _0 N) ?& n" w3 T* s
historically depressed levels./ H* E6 T( N! J$ v/ u) k
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" c1 c( G; [6 P; p f
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# L& v R& ^5 G U! v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 e$ y0 ^* n8 g& M0 m+ O
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This. O; a1 }% k1 v$ r4 j8 ]
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% {) |# u, p9 T( p# F
months ahead," added Hogue.) b" U# }1 b# R2 w1 E
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* `2 ~+ H, P1 }1 i* s4 }1 x4 M, s
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 U+ ]! f1 @) l* D
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# o7 ?, [' A' J$ V( _ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 k1 @8 }( Q% \$ h
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, C/ \8 R7 U/ B; \) P
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 `; X& h3 A' ^2 o) Ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 a- V& B7 ?# M The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* c4 Z c/ S& V A& Ubased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 W$ H$ C# N: M/ d0 I6 M; p( @benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
3 R* ~, O H+ w% Xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 Q% Y/ T- [: [5 y: k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: ^/ W! ]! r' h4 U4 q) I) l
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. |( H9 \2 v' L2 \costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) q, X5 [' @/ ^, {3 L6 B
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
D# L. B0 ~4 G" E8 L l4 L1 d: s6 k# _
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. G) U0 x8 P& }, u3 {2 y Highlights from across Canada:9 \$ [# m. c' ~% Z# p& m& G
/ B5 N+ e: o: H& S5 d; \5 f9 U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' d: R% r) g+ ~5 U: B$ m: r
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 i- t! V8 ?3 p. E: d8 M3 ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) P, c$ d5 w: { ^5 H) H% y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track b+ X" v! v3 F& a# D
since about the middle of 2007. R! Y( K8 ^0 x% k [5 x* S
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! y$ ^3 b: ?* F' H+ l
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" V0 Z$ B/ Y2 K, \4 ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 ?+ e- v0 N# F$ B- [" X
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
5 d) H& w" H- l. v poor affordability levels.
! ]$ \) N, s6 }7 f1 H: _ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
l3 g+ a. y& A3 k% ?: R1 U+ b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& O3 Z# C) ?7 j8 i! P
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& e1 V& M: {- `9 `
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 W, d+ X' V; M9 x! z* j minimize any downside risks.
. V, N) u( w* X0 r/ X8 n2 z - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ d. _4 g- h- `( L w% U4 d conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ @% Y+ ]: G/ \! s: Q- ]+ g. w1 c
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 f# ^5 v! P8 z |; J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 K; \ S4 q# N& y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 E8 v& b8 }3 S& G! }& @
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, x) [6 o3 Q& I; _5 W% h( z& {
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ o+ N* g7 q* a far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% ?( l1 E& `1 F/ y5 i8 ~
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 ^4 k* k T0 ^: A, I N4 t
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
4 y( M2 U4 L5 O+ ?* l modestly in recent years.4 N/ [. Q) y0 K3 c- j9 ^1 ]* U* h
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ m* C( R# y5 E A- i. w. m# [
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
/ z5 i* `( |& O, c0 N spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* u9 P9 ?# n m) I* ]( z1 G' ~ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ h8 d# Q# c2 d I2 n following two years of deterioration.# {: {. l8 I; }! [* ~: Q7 a
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