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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; A# L* C5 w* @. }3 i
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
. Q- O. T3 R0 ]) W) a4 V& I+ |, imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* g% H+ D# _0 Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
t) I$ G( F. p) p0 S8 s; ?$ v4 Daccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.! u2 p6 b- s' ?
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" |0 `- O' G. {! Asaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) I& C' b7 S7 I- y- S
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability0 j: S5 ]% j2 U$ Z9 s) B& c- D1 ~
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" X- J5 N4 k) `& d% z' ~8 m
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
+ Q: X6 u( k/ t m9 Z4 C" `0 lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) _; W! g2 c% C2 L
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- v9 |" C! n: A% N( U1 s7 _* ~sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; p. u0 ?/ l" D. O/ O# R W The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the2 k& J) h, g; r3 R
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 n& w8 e/ O. a1 h5 ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) U- r m) P' Y B7 e0 N
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" S8 S0 d, |! j0 p
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( Z4 q6 g' Y- Q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' s3 ]! C, G9 t8 C; i& m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
& K( ]. e/ R( Nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& g8 J) \, ^1 V, m# ~8 _, o5 }) z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at: g$ z$ n9 [; z0 Q# l2 z! `, H" @9 u
historically depressed levels.8 u" q I. k" U9 [5 m5 P* L. _
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
. C# i; ?7 N* E( A. |of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
. a, s+ j1 k4 O5 Oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% }7 z% ?4 h, n
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This3 f( L- h" \* d. S' k2 _8 ~* y# G
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; L7 @9 A0 X* H3 L. I
months ahead," added Hogue.% p* @* k/ Q" S6 D( O" ?
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 M- Y' H. I! g
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ a- o0 x8 i) q- T% b+ Z* W42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- R# [- j7 d) H9 C3 u2 { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
8 z1 L* O1 y3 h' K+ v1 wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ d4 P' u, z' v1 Z5 ~
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) p) j; S/ s0 H" k( \: d. @! l
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& h0 d1 H$ Q# T f The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is- ?# B, R& m. e' l8 m8 x/ M
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( `+ L8 O- n" q5 \
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented6 ^% A+ Q# ^- d1 D6 L2 B4 u; \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( D1 x; h0 o' N6 j3 y7 O. l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. C: m" r! g+ l3 r
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- y' W' v$ R8 A& acosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& P2 ~: L* U- T9 Aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 O$ M3 b# {" ]% k+ o) n5 `2 X
* l q8 T6 s; [4 e: H% a ?2 | <<5 T! x, c4 a" T9 P
Highlights from across Canada:
4 m8 \" }" @" l* r+ G; a9 }1 \5 q
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) c* ?% a1 a% }2 a
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
1 O$ E2 t4 a1 g! c/ `3 w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound A% j, D h8 B7 a
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! w0 c7 J3 w7 L- G: \! _ since about the middle of 2007.; M+ i- H! N' L/ d
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
: S3 p# G) _5 v$ p8 } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 h9 {! s; B* |, }7 m
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still8 N- [' b" V( @& Q- {- Y+ x
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: `% }4 L! q$ ]/ B; e/ _+ \2 E poor affordability levels.- g3 m0 n! O7 j; F% }' R& |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
I# K ^6 o' p$ ~ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 L" ^+ Y: g7 T$ }; u" B prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 O- m H% [3 t/ D; g# T Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to7 {! M2 O2 T( _1 e8 g5 F
minimize any downside risks.
! q) F% E8 h* N5 X2 V - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 \* X* Q5 o( M! V4 P D" `
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% b5 l* r* j$ u. k1 |
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 [* t: S9 u: c/ u0 a$ w, n+ | 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. @9 x3 W* f' d- t2 y; w' z9 M! P
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& N+ R$ y. v8 C% O
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& w- K6 f: n+ O `9 n4 u, M
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% o- f4 M9 b4 D$ `
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" G3 s/ b F3 J! p) S1 Q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 w' L. O& H" e1 }. ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" V8 k" ?$ J' F; p5 P$ g modestly in recent years.
% \/ T# L/ T e+ V* Z; \ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% o) K2 r2 U& {7 {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
* O3 S5 r5 c* v7 C! d0 x spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; w j& J6 z' ?5 {
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability s) G [5 w% z0 O+ y4 \
following two years of deterioration.+ n# E0 H) l: b1 d( p1 a/ R+ K
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