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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - S; c5 ~+ a2 I9 l
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 t: a2 K& G2 T) i
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% Q5 u" c9 F6 Q- u( o. ?8 I8 ?gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 E1 n6 m- K" R' p) haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& }/ q' l Q: @. G8 w
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 ]" x: R C9 G: {6 L' C' }said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& M" Z) j- h! C0 |improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
: e: z0 B$ @5 pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ k1 R5 O! B ?$ j% e RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
5 A0 Z8 ~# ~/ B/ Aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 x9 z! E- Z# K6 d" h
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
+ j9 g4 L, `% E' m; ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) @' R* N2 H% O- { The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 k4 p/ ]- K. i$ T0 z& T6 Q6 w7 fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
{* m+ f4 W/ N; E( u/ hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 F$ B" c( q9 R! e' aAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 G, d$ G. w" B" h. x/ V, A
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. |( c" C7 {: Y( S& D/ R# Ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 d1 }7 {: \7 f" O$ C+ E& N
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets+ F* u7 N* ?1 y& U! z- z4 j0 L4 b
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in n- E3 B1 g# v C X
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, b6 z; K' a1 q6 l0 Z5 |1 G) A0 c2 P
historically depressed levels./ O9 \# U% ~. e! j$ F( }9 y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 W6 J' j: ]. D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
. d$ }# Y6 F5 u# z/ Fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 A; F% P: o5 C* n( Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; S- x3 t1 a! C! R2 w
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 O; X; B8 Q0 |2 E1 K3 E# Kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
$ M& H& Y8 c) e' R% I RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# o$ C: | }7 n6 x f# Ucities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
7 w3 p* ?( A5 Z, F& t42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 A+ j( m/ v3 L Z; A0 L- A# a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 [: y3 s: t5 l) aa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 b) j, @- D) T" E& x0 G+ _" ]
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only2 \7 H' ^; K- A# ]& s4 F# r1 z0 O5 h+ c
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.. I: Y- L$ n1 n! f8 E8 Y. h
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; A- A+ h; |+ K& F2 m0 \based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& m- ^4 U0 F1 }; [4 ~- I
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 N) x8 k H+ O" n8 F0 dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' f2 h* i+ m7 ]3 v' j3 Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ Q7 R$ X" x1 _: L5 K/ E
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership% W3 i6 `( {" O; n% H- F, k* |
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 }1 P) E* k9 M! q! X6 l
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 m; b# L [2 }0 X2 v2 [0 U4 d% l4 W$ c8 l2 M7 R/ n3 x5 q* i
<<
, E% E! S6 b6 m2 H0 x2 C0 ^ Highlights from across Canada:
9 h! M4 x, B& m h1 x. `& \! W( |5 N: S
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 N2 H0 s# x3 Z ] intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- J+ V% i) T! T0 _" ^0 D
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound, }' Z0 l2 }1 A: L5 }1 |
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 j! z2 B/ B& d% a
since about the middle of 2007.) W' [4 k9 G) \7 f) ^
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 p, `0 l, ]/ f' D, V5 C frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; p- |4 T4 J% I% a
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 S( c: L1 L. F6 b$ K V8 ]
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. C2 D. P) m3 h5 a0 }9 }; k1 R! v poor affordability levels.
# w5 O* [$ h- S) ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' X- u% }/ t3 I& A* y% w9 R/ {# U vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: ?) d( d9 l7 S/ F5 F6 q; G- f prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! w7 o2 W0 ?+ Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; }4 g- r1 h, @
minimize any downside risks.4 F% R7 O, ~3 A0 \' v$ |- I
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! \4 t- Y# L/ M9 _
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, U; b+ m- r2 X7 C3 z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 b2 p# F) s0 e4 s+ W+ l 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
+ o! O2 s- b' o, |6 ^ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
* E# R7 ]) B3 I, Q/ k - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in. ^2 D# M- h% a9 I
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- U* s7 ~" ~5 X) @, c& a7 p2 x far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up+ X5 n/ @+ b! `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. D$ x1 u8 L' O$ Z" B% }0 |3 V ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) ]) J1 k Z# C5 q, L* P% f- G
modestly in recent years.% J- G" t5 d7 _0 p& c2 z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 c2 X: A0 v5 p9 m
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot8 I7 ~, T H$ @
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# q- ]+ ^- N5 D0 K
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 W6 ^6 V* {7 |- U+ u% E1 _8 ?
following two years of deterioration.
. t6 k' ^2 M) `- s' e% y p) a2 l! M >> |
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