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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# R; p k0 O4 K. \# e TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* k: Q# e0 v$ F7 O! u0 Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. ^+ C& O+ P+ v7 d- ^
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
6 e4 M c: H; E2 Uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 h3 o6 b5 A0 h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
# A1 Z: s# p9 a' `said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. ~& H, u! U, S) N2 X4 k1 ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 H0 x: m/ d0 q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- d* x5 _8 A; |5 Y2 B, o5 u
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 S! W/ M C8 O* c' q6 x; Nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 Y# B' k! o, J5 T; V8 q: @which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 a% W- i2 {* b& ]
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
E4 @2 [8 u. L. [2 i) ], _ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
) Q# Y& w P0 t, w/ jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 K, I! z9 y( j: J' G6 I' {
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008. M4 {: h& {3 q8 z5 J$ h
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 t3 y' \8 J5 K5 }5 `
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 Z; v2 U6 Q2 [% G. ?the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ r# N. E/ c9 D3 F According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ _) M( E# r( imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ q# ?0 z: e7 V; {: U* P# r, j
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# U9 _. t1 t% E% C& @: V
historically depressed levels.- w4 e8 b4 q# I! V# K' O
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: `$ W; E" v. b9 @2 b! T) hof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 F4 ]* T0 |2 I& j5 u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
4 A) G h& o' o( x# zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 I: u8 R( {# r! G* Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 k+ t, f/ {, w* Q# t T T1 O1 F
months ahead," added Hogue.
" \9 A3 X! k! O4 v) @" @5 Y8 |2 y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 Q- w* f% R5 d5 a: g9 T" y- i
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary$ U% Y+ n0 a; B ~6 J6 r
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& y/ v4 d+ D6 _) P3 `
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' H; n& z9 p. l( ]3 ]1 ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. s" K: L5 @& L' vcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; n. s. ]! @/ s) m( H$ l( c4 {takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! |) [; v. [1 y" |& x; S7 y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 s: z. y+ X9 n0 ?' B) ~9 \; }
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- p1 K# \$ ], i, v3 |6 xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ ?( r5 P! R0 M7 Y5 ~including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 h; `3 Y% R; r0 e8 b
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 ]: M$ ]% w7 W" G+ ^For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: n7 U5 |- g& x) Q) h1 L
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 X1 G4 D3 }" @6 i+ q8 k
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 t. Y: }" @* ]' k# ]
+ a( D# v, y+ U6 U <<
5 n" v. _; V8 d* A/ g Highlights from across Canada:
& H) E0 W$ m$ E4 r, R4 W$ U: X; y) e |
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has$ U& z8 o: R* u$ ^! ~7 p8 P8 Q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; ]; {, O& R, f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 d8 f' ^. _+ j) E8 q7 g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 Q9 U0 y7 z' ]# P( B0 }- ?' ?
since about the middle of 2007.
5 s; z7 C9 N0 b. N - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
1 v8 `+ R+ o9 d& k( D" q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to! _' ^- d! e( K7 b
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still- \3 f+ Q0 [8 ` Z4 h( m4 B0 ?
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, f+ b. t9 p% n# h: \) \ Y; g( Y
poor affordability levels.. S q; L2 Z* q% q0 E# U3 r
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ {4 \5 R5 ~9 o& i+ Q+ ?4 [/ X
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 |0 p3 ]) L# q) Q$ Q8 f/ b
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 C/ \& Z5 o: G. T+ K
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 { {# G' b# i1 g }
minimize any downside risks.3 V7 s6 d2 g# O8 G% M6 W& K
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 t; z' z" M+ e+ b
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, H! }4 I5 m9 n" D$ O unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ b' w, S0 h0 V5 ^- b 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 g! C/ q6 u( s5 r" V$ I1 D9 [, d: T
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- Y; x) D$ }. W0 A& Q6 c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 W5 r; z0 E, |4 @
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
( E& n- U) D9 S* x/ I' C: x far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% `3 Q) R3 P# ?5 v$ _, g( B$ O d/ K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; n1 e* u9 e+ w- z K: m ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ O# ~6 K+ D- |9 {0 H$ v* e modestly in recent years.
( p; W2 {: L! E& x - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! ^! s0 h r, x- }5 ~! D2 z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot: V9 ?: R- \# U/ q* O
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% j2 d' M" g4 C9 f: i% @+ f
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) k% I) d& V& j+ R; j3 y: v
following two years of deterioration.
" E3 H0 k' P$ B$ f0 @1 o4 I >> |
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