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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 `. [, z! ?( g6 Q/ [
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" G& Y3 |; d9 U& A* H/ k
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 W) J% V3 o! F+ Z& _$ q9 l
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 @2 @7 O8 U3 W2 f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, ?5 ~+ Y4 M) `: w4 W1 yformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& D8 M3 L) C T: h8 Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 q/ u9 |4 @! P2 F$ `, r+ xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 M, U l# M# `6 a* T5 Mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' t$ _/ X* h9 s$ g9 [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" F9 y; w, d% j. B! N
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" v+ ]: L# W& ? a
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- I+ A7 Y) T) Mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this# L# l+ [+ i! O0 e
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ R5 {' T8 E: ?4 ?
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# x( C- @$ G; F) E4 U
30,000 new households will form in the province during! j/ _: d6 F$ W9 V% u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) p# Z5 ]9 Z' R+ S8 V. o0 FEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 v! [% v4 @' r
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 E. [" G# F: f) V cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ ~; y3 J* F& r3 G
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. R( q, ?) ]! G/ E5 ~6 p
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ [- L& T2 O3 _' q v: m$ T$ ^8 Hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" x0 R, y7 C \* c4 K" q+ ?sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. ~+ P5 T8 A# w$ A& _( F1 O! lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- s/ c3 G" X, q( @: E) c, E1 `" Q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ I6 N1 L k% J) ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ T: H# v- q6 ?! }sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ {4 `3 U" O; i0 g3 e: f" Nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 n/ s! a: i9 m2 d
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. n& M5 J# Q" ?( Qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" o3 T+ W6 G4 ^9 w t
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 {* J R* {! a$ }- T& Q7 T; `) C
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 {/ g# ~! z K6 @6 Y& fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 q6 T; x* n$ u9 D3 f3 Tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# Q$ U. m; I( q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled) c$ B+ h* c" r& s' |
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 c! p7 j$ U+ E- N0 { ]2 a2 W3 P
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! K0 A* w/ y0 E% C# Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- k L6 y) R: R' C2 Y0 \* _
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ }) N- o! S* a/ o( f3 l4 Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ Y2 M4 u. r3 L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 \: B/ V0 e+ f! }' Y( xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even! e+ @( e% A/ Q6 j; o( I) f2 F
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: A( \( ~8 m9 N9 I a( }on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. a" E4 T. F& k2 x/ hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) E8 P- j- f5 A4 B$ F9 W% [( ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices- ^$ ~6 F+ L) g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- A. K4 M% Z6 e: Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 S- Z8 b' A8 }8 ?8 v8 l( m
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 T& e+ m6 U9 gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ x) j' ? p1 n
leg down over 2009.
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1 Q1 e8 U6 I( N0 S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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