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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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5 c- J/ Q" H4 L1 o/ PThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 K0 W+ C0 i0 D) b' C
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.8 E9 W5 Z% A4 H7 `7 k
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* ^3 e8 F8 @; K& O5 ~
: [) k( E9 K0 N& b' Z% ~
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 f+ B' q) i( K2 O7 g+ \2 r

7 J/ v$ Q& T3 @& q! h' x" t" F8 IMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ) d9 E2 m; G6 U2 I; j  e

, q" g9 F# h2 C1 `! o0 zhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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$ `, f' U/ d# O; hTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 T: {$ O$ _- G2 y3 i& b
& i% p6 Z$ M+ k1 f
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 M; T+ q5 w3 l' U$ ]6 n4 B; k 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。: v0 _* w" C  u8 `' c
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
7 L- [+ p0 Y% d跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

& Q5 X  W; J: ?& N0 Q4 T很多人都回学校深造去了+ M% Z$ ], M6 }- ?4 Q0 Q
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 I& P# |3 H, R4 d7 t  c
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 ?6 w- ~6 W! T8 w$ f
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 }1 l+ x) I* K+ R& f( Y5 U6 e! J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! c( K5 Q" I) ?5 o# N! E  e
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) [: {$ I. |; D, q9 M4 W5 x4 j& T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; W9 ?. B: _$ Y( q8 t1 w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' ?: q) @+ ^+ F$ a6 }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# N+ X. h$ A; y) [# w1 W3 a/ Pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! Y$ {1 i" \$ T/ Z) Ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# _, i3 F: B0 {2 U% Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" D* o. V# A! Y1 Y6 e8 vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ i3 N% i5 u  y+ x1 yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 B, h, d5 |* @: X: `% `% ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# ~* _+ A7 a0 X- Q9 W8 Ohomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- l) @( t! E! i! D3 p
30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ s; l! [4 L/ E- C, F) y" s( }$ M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; J3 W5 e- j8 i4 v* VEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# b) J3 A( N5 r6 ~+ M8 Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! S5 v, ~/ g' E( D( r3 E& n) r5 }* [during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* Y' g1 @6 U. k# ~- lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ ]- U. W+ K- q1 V
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals% l* b5 ^  N2 q$ ?/ o" r$ x' x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' Y% o) e- \$ [9 {* c
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ r% E& Z6 t  R6 `2 l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! l4 G& [6 I9 p: z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' t" s# [, j) `2 m1 u2 c* ?4 O% y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 i9 R' n  l$ {sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- S- S2 M  j1 B* f8 }8 V0 ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! }- F* t4 d8 ]; ?two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 k% [$ c- ]7 `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: o: ~2 P# N; Gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" T; M1 d: m1 @5 ~( trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 i' p. a" h: F! r
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( y+ ?5 U" _  x8 u4 t
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 {; C4 Y& U" |) {  S. Z8 w
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- |! {7 f  R( j, u7 ?; [- O2 j1 A
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, U7 _8 O( D9 u( S( eThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; p/ v' p& o' k. }- c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ Z: |" K% w; ?  r% j% O
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
" r0 A% @3 m9 z) ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) i. m+ v* N+ _& q" E; E
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ m* B; i) }& p; F
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even; y9 J& E0 A! z7 |2 E) j
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' E9 N" C/ x4 g9 K& M2 f
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 i* T- ^& o: V: \The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average  \7 i- w$ f. H- }) u6 }8 u2 C
resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ O# O+ k+ Z, K6 U: Y* l8 A
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& F& R% P( i  P/ q% d* P& r& o9 W$ Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& D) M- \6 g, |& o% V
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( T5 _  U3 |) n# {& w  S" T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) X/ c8 I9 b5 K0 h* p
leg down over 2009.
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: M2 D3 b5 d1 ~# F% F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 k% o- Q0 b* D6 q+ E- I& W0 c
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
+ ]7 _/ E2 k5 A4 F+ w2 Z: B' K翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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# B6 y& }$ Y" |4 O9 c[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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