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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' D* s) a# U, M' ZWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, l2 r! Q; A$ ], S- I9 i& t3 q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 w$ \9 W/ N2 |$ [7 y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 M! }+ s8 [5 N: v/ K2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ H1 u1 r( `6 H F1 m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 H+ W. a; S2 \- d- z" V! Q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ c h" i( v* W% G$ othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
K6 F/ i' e Dmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 \! q q; M8 a9 D* K( r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ L) M) }. k; L4 o. N+ B% h: [! Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 r/ D* i: r# R# c" x, }
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* k% s: L- x; o/ r2 wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- G: g: R8 K! P2 L/ x+ }0 N
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ T3 q+ k a; K/ X" q5 Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. L) ^" d$ @9 g( ~30,000 new households will form in the province during) t- l# I2 y$ D& C2 M! Z& f* n
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 ]* A6 P: K4 P- n* K7 P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) \6 P# j+ z X4 o: c0 }. T
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& B# b' a/ J4 @5 f! uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; E, _0 j! H7 B0 g$ ^
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 ~/ b+ N' x) Y- ?7 Hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! {; m2 e; `+ s0 d5 Cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 u1 a6 h: }. C0 L0 Y% ^4 I8 l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' ]" q# T+ _7 ? @6 }1 w- dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* u0 r5 O1 u4 U2 E2 [excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; d+ e! O2 B" h5 P' M, n- n" L1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* M# ~+ w: w- A9 S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# H: |/ }5 A8 G1 `7 R) ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) W' F- e! c' g+ q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: h7 P4 l' N3 {+ [% j
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 V* Z* m1 t3 z/ V
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ ^6 ~( e# n4 j A8 I, s1 Zrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 N5 G& K/ }& g# G, `" l7 g: ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ K s3 v5 G) i6 a6 r3 o) Pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 F% h+ q$ r7 Y( Z3 g8 ]% Bof new singles, and, with demand having cooled- }- @5 i9 I0 A' {/ ~
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ r/ _4 z5 m$ k2 w
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: o0 Y: u K% s2 j m9 c" u$ Pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# O S. a" @) {) V4 EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
" m& A! R8 B0 m4 Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
- a% w3 F5 D& U" ?: Z6 [1 ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 c6 e* W5 L$ [7 d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ [, ~' i$ A* Q3 ~* s) L$ Ethough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; L# K% _8 f1 p5 `- N, ~on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." P: \* Z: x; }+ i7 k' v, ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 H* G* J$ h7 y8 o' `resale price in February is evidence that past prices% l9 U* s t* q1 G) P1 J0 [0 o
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% o c/ B. l5 X& [& k
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% I1 F8 F3 H+ v2 ]; E
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 C8 U. ^5 b2 G3 S! q. f; [Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- g/ |1 U- Z- x/ e! M
leg down over 2009.$ Q7 H! b- A9 c6 s3 q
9 C5 I5 l; N( _6 \9 N
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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