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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ; }' K% Y8 [) Y! a9 o* x& m; w
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ) `, \  {7 [2 l/ i* C+ K
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. : y, z% |2 q# j' f) k/ p& B: A
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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  C! l0 x# ^- O0 |TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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1 ^8 D. s' O/ _( b- p+ @" d"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ( f& Y1 r9 E4 g4 y4 U' w& N/ {

  T3 E% Z# c$ y0 c& x& uTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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* W3 F: l, b* Y# O# ?Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,/ J& ~1 i; G  Q6 f2 b# {( L/ B1 ]1 Z

$ Z8 c/ y+ G) t, v8 _" h6 ?3 a[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 z0 F5 p; J" ]7 N6 p. X 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 q! E" y( K, A& b: X跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了9 @. a1 A! y7 }7 F& X' z
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
+ N, N5 l, m; UWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 {* m/ q2 ?# X3 W8 Xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 b) x" U1 Z+ p6 b: D- K* Hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ Q. ?' T% t8 X$ i$ F2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 D: o0 P$ S8 f1 a, Y+ ^3 N! pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# R: G# D" o8 z: a# P2 l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( x" h! u4 Z0 u8 Kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' t/ X3 j# O+ d- u9 ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 G5 A. v& x2 X
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# M' y' X7 a! W5 c( S3 V% J* r
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' G. d* d  K; W5 Z2 J! z- w6 s- b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 I" F% g: X. P* X+ m0 Xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 @, f  w# O% a; \2 Jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 g. T$ h" y' ^9 u' f' v
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 C# J# k/ p" M' U- \. `5 X* R9 B+ Q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& f$ b' }9 I2 A" z" ~  f6 {! X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: W! F  l$ O' o3 p2 m: |4 m( k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ F3 _* W! @: ~6 ^6 E4 vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%- z1 J* y& X! ]7 k& S
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 D1 |$ j3 l# z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- O/ A  W$ N1 Dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ j6 L; _4 ]+ B% [( R* y4 g- _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) v' \" R7 j& Z. M* y; Y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& {0 [9 u! G, ]6 Z: Y. dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) `7 G: _7 G5 Vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
: B: E! ~7 ~6 D8 I  i' i1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 M4 j2 T- g9 tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' D& ?( u# c1 {, f. b; }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' _% |5 e5 y, E: l- \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! Y2 h$ {% z( O# U$ R
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 h, ?" o9 d! P8 |/ y5 G* W0 ^- j
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ v* N- \* C8 e& f) irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 E1 U* a3 ~! x1 F8 d, Y( Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ a4 a) \) c8 t1 H2 q  \: O
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% k/ |/ h: B8 Xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled. C9 ]5 @/ ~- n# B3 \+ p2 p
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( Y* a# ?& T" `8 N" z& gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" m, ]! B! D  i, A  a3 b  a
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- V) g. z5 g! b" oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan& w1 [3 G' p. a8 X
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ y! o. M8 K: N$ H3 L" ?, H! Jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 K2 T+ q+ v1 B5 M( vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even/ |% d: F$ z( H- v+ _% z4 ?3 j6 L
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% Z6 f4 y+ W& I) l6 Con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- t) b" r& ]( E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 u' P1 I4 p6 r) x& Uresale price in February is evidence that past prices
4 [7 q$ w. u5 _& Nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; C7 D$ g6 Q( X. L/ M
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' B4 z' ^/ x" K+ T; c! @deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ x# e# O- i3 y4 p$ }; ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% `/ o3 p$ O; `  ~; Qleg down over 2009.
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& T/ g: H% E+ m3 H! M1 U  A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  I2 S$ v" ?( T4 c6 R( Q0 w
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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; z3 ?* G# m9 H4 [- v. J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% R. l0 M* b& N翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子  z/ ^: Z/ x% v

- V+ K/ _. K; f. hhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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