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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?5 v- Y" g6 s' l. Z; p0 I
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET# {; z+ t/ v# z! s$ G& v) w7 I' G
Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine" [( k/ Q' Q0 I v- `
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.# [* ?$ L' N' b5 n% K6 C3 G
: M7 v* J( @- [' p, fThe average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.- y+ U9 M6 T. |, A' q
4 r$ p7 m6 w7 Q; v+ } }( gCalgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.
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1 ^# e ]; |2 _" y9 n"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.
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+ \+ R9 e% y2 K& d I' ?"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July./ g' v; s2 G% D4 B) u) k% T# `
@& n- d4 Z( eThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.2 D& F) i) S4 T" r
, j0 h, J3 L! f8 V) M/ _3 E"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.2 { ~7 `6 y7 ^8 o6 G: A
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.1 B, K7 @# T5 _5 |( a
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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" O# N4 q' A: U5 J3 a4 @Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."8 N' v2 l8 D6 T$ M
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.7 Q' e) j5 R; `) \
0 u1 i6 K0 F; @1 j" m# I4 u"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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