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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
3 ^( X( N& s$ f( N+ V @0 t! G2 _1 ePublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
4 ~2 u% H2 I9 N! U5 s+ fCanadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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6 b: K! t% ]! [9 A- A- q% A) DCALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.' j& l ]1 |" h
9 F( c5 ^7 E2 V M T: R( C1 d; Y$ L4 tCalgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.1 C' P! ?: D9 _2 l
3 V2 ?7 n4 P5 S& ^( v' EBut Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.5 C( n$ `: Y1 t* T4 s: B4 r& v+ d
6 x z# Y* y* F8 e"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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5 y0 Y! u+ B0 I) N3 m8 A, mIn Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.: r* x) M9 B/ {" c$ s1 D& t h
7 r6 c+ V( ?6 F* JVancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.2 F7 F# _& [3 }- C
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July./ b4 o2 `. j9 i _( T. G. h, h
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The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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, E2 c4 `9 E2 S8 C( RIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.5 D4 H- t; }2 z0 v
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.+ ?* n8 i: Y' C" t6 L4 l
3 a+ j* ]% V& ~; A& v- y"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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# ]3 ]( G. E- mHirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.: X& {1 _5 S. {7 z: l( K
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said., t- \; Z- k9 Y2 F2 }! P6 Z
) P5 G- e& r3 O, n"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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