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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?7 h; Q% x; M' u3 E3 h4 Q
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
. @6 s2 G& U+ KCanadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.# t( P+ C& d' ]& B
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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$ ]/ J% {( O0 @% ~2 O"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.; c- _1 g$ c, n/ }( P' f6 a! q* Y
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.
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"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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/ k* e- d0 E, z$ dIn Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2., a! Y4 l* n9 ~
# ^/ H. }: q5 ~. r. m8 J7 TVancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.1 Y1 |8 l* f a! `% ~! T
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.7 a* S+ l0 r- P ?7 p2 I# V8 A
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The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.: k" d" J3 r- ^! N1 H: P; e4 [
( j: z* R1 x/ g& S( i3 D"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.4 E8 G, I _- t- A0 z
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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% D) E6 w$ T* M"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.: A9 ]' _4 b) A: \+ h: E5 C
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer., [& D1 t, k( @5 Y( ~# @
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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& g% I4 N: Q0 f. \" f& K"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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, c7 j' ^: D) m# R2 x2 N7 a"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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