 鲜花( 34)  鸡蛋( 5)
|
Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.5 x/ F; L: }! {5 C; \
5 S- L f; y+ d% r) l+ @) T# tIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.7 F1 }" m& @, u! G, d
. @4 r Y5 ~/ D7 j
"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
0 o# ^2 z. R) Y" Y& X$ j
9 a+ p4 z, T# dAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.. j) W/ @! p7 N
( l4 n. U; q- B: f; i% b2 v8 P"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
5 V6 E' r3 Z8 N. X, }
: j+ X" G/ q( C"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."$ E0 S1 J, \$ S/ b; w: R# I
u0 F7 E T* j- ~" w
Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.& l8 C- O& l! A6 @# n9 |
( M% j) [/ y7 C+ n4 ^Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
9 Y& v- ?0 O- R3 D0 I1 v3 N9 e! G3 d, Y4 U7 Q: u
"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
) z0 V0 _ C* _8 _% f8 M- @$ m" I2 P, W: X4 Q4 W1 z- T
当然,历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉,现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.7 W8 O ?; G' r% y+ \& D
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦,没看到,抱歉。
0 H3 k; V6 L' K4 I+ g
* h" k l$ C" S$ M9 g[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ] |
|