No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
  b$ m7 }- [* ]) T* S; d$ Z. A1 w
In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
3 ?2 p) ^: ^2 U
& X# f2 j7 n% A0 D  s* Z"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
, g" S  c; A8 O; n% b+ C3 z7 d
- r/ v+ T# x) O8 s/ xAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
5 q4 F0 h, P: r
7 a& }- g4 @6 B"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
3 A- Y/ g% c6 r7 L4 Q, U- {  E
"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
% h& @6 X5 F) y8 }$ Q% k
Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
4 W; D) ^  `) o* z4 Z
0 |* S; p1 m( }5 |Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
) c* H( Q& k$ _4 u$ h0 J; _2 \4 X
"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
- h0 T$ a, T- `" l
; F( i' ^& X( S$ J- }当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
5 e# o5 K" d( }' T4 h- z- o# w2 U
) M0 n' d5 I, U8 X[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]