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Attention Real Estate Reporters: - |0 v0 u1 o- v$ G( c. F
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
. A3 }% t4 [( {4 a& F5 \. f) F TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
( D2 H" G9 V B) @commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
" U$ D4 k7 g2 m7 C. Fas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
. n# I6 m+ K, B/ j. h; u* h: QTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)% v$ W+ J1 t- ]. }
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
+ W2 L6 A. I9 s# {. nupbeat.
+ @' C. X2 }2 [7 U9 S) s7 S# C$ @ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
7 `" N2 H. s8 G. r/ B( P4 Sannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects3 D% W- S/ _ e; ` d$ z
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
3 a. X {3 V' F3 f' |# testate experts, including investors, developers, property company
/ S( I+ j3 l4 |3 Erepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.5 h' h7 o6 ~2 j5 @& [
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world3 O3 \( e! D/ u* v- C8 A
including Asia Pacific and Europe.0 N. g6 Y4 w1 q& e1 K+ c
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian3 [& m" e- K7 s
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
1 f( f* @9 Y4 H5 n; R4 Jenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
$ j, N; ~& P0 g4 c( R8 ?be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record2 S% V) N6 j& e/ W$ D( t
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."5 z# R; d5 x9 B: e# o* v/ V1 R k' m
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
! T# T" S5 t/ ~ Y7 k0 A8 m6 @0 i; pborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game( {0 g% t7 f; J
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey4 k6 B7 {' a' Q$ U' F. Q N
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US! c$ ]3 {, i# v a) g. m4 S/ ]
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be; O) u. [5 L( t; F |, I
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.0 s- W2 E. U' ?- `2 L8 Y/ L0 W+ z
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian f( u- d: R9 x) C
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
- }- A* K4 V7 [: h6 F1 g( ycommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
% q5 T9 D: C/ h% }8 Sdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country$ K" Z; y% [: k' q! L n
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating4 I/ u) F' x& q- g; z: W
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
5 ~1 a+ G2 i# v+ d! t2 W/ [* tresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
5 B$ G' y; x4 Mtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
/ j4 T3 _# P/ H' W- k2 e. csingle-family housing looks overpriced.5 g! P2 ~$ X& O& |- _% {
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with/ O% q7 J4 ] P$ M* n- R- V
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian# [3 R2 w' c9 l3 [7 @0 U
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push* N% v% X: p+ X: D5 w+ m& w0 j
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting, p, L+ u# H$ s, s& s
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
& N% V' D7 s* K7 |) j8 n+ C$ O* |and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental1 W0 I5 r6 Q8 Q' d* V! o9 l, i8 K
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
' \; y& B6 n4 v4 F4 F) a/ ~0 Owestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
, u/ Z) {( ~* ?shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into' y4 p5 `; \2 C7 [$ Q4 z$ H
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development9 d6 j' U6 K3 ^& g. q% x$ P5 i( f
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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2 }8 j3 p8 i, g! c. f6 p Canadian Markets to Watch! A9 E; m2 S9 b* P
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central; E) n2 u9 \; J9 Z
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour G/ W7 V1 d6 y( k( O4 X( y
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back+ B# m# D. Q, O* w5 `' _) M& f; U
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in2 t! v3 |5 v3 K! B* G! V: y
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
& o( r: D ]3 f1 Bprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
8 F# w( X6 n+ t" vwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
) u/ U1 @+ J. ~ l( i+ s" s- Sprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain$ z( a. S7 x4 H2 O$ |1 e5 i
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.: L1 l9 V/ }/ }# |4 r
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
( U+ H4 L$ `0 _9 G+ Iratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.$ {: h9 K9 @3 N, L9 T3 Z1 N
- x* S3 ^+ v5 ~" u, i4 C; C6 t Calgary/Edmonton: H1 e* @( |8 l. N8 ]0 S# P/ k
* g8 q' k$ _3 _& P' m' x Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one' g4 M$ X7 g' y6 W
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a( l! T# ?* T% `1 _% G: i
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,0 y5 n* x$ Z. G _
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property./ p! z% j5 D3 o3 o
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
/ y, u+ d2 k) M H, L7 O6 MHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
2 R: A+ d3 D3 zCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays: a% E L2 u8 g0 z1 Z& X
strong, this market will continue to do well.5 f/ u# \9 I |' A
( Q- J) W9 M" Q3 [4 M Vancouver, x* i8 J2 ^0 x
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
! {9 P$ j+ V' X+ m# Abooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
6 i/ U$ l1 H7 }. @( x" {8 y/ vreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the c+ @* Y- a# L& z# z: L
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a+ N$ U, k* b6 ]5 K3 G
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
( W2 t0 \1 ~5 z- c9 krecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
( _/ P4 g$ a! I: U" \9 O& hfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%5 z; ]. T' {/ b+ h2 f* f" `
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very0 Z; v8 z- F& g( m
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.) J7 M7 s) k" S7 ~& S; w
% O: `& p c' y" o5 f0 ], G; B Toronto5 T5 H2 ?8 z' k# N% i% G, ]
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
7 O7 i6 m! Z* I* K( Bmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
g0 E3 i3 B% E* O2 d9 R' F) G# ~relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing: j- p s* s& v: c ^
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.& l* N1 v, M+ x$ D7 O }
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 r. b+ m# y% x8 k" I6 }
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and b# [. {9 f9 z$ _' f% M8 n" S' r2 ?
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.2 m* _4 N4 H3 d- @
$ Q7 K0 g& I/ K Montreal
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5 I1 {% G; [2 n3 P; S Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
5 P7 s( W) S# T0 A! z) ^growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 v8 T' n3 a1 ^/ a8 _3 o* xshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
" L* n- Q3 p+ y: a- l+ w4 a* ^7 y' JCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
4 ~1 l- E' [5 }sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
$ [( F+ U( `. A1 F; x* `higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years& @' q$ q3 k @" L/ `
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy8 B; W7 K- e$ Q9 w: V) v8 F y
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos, \0 G6 A. v( }# o& g5 E
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
$ M6 M5 c$ ~+ M, uoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
- C( S) h( a+ W2 d) Dprices."
8 k* r1 V* u) t A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at2 y1 V) U/ j: G) [" j+ O+ j5 X }
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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' x( Y5 |& j0 D5 A5 N6 ~% R About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
: a1 i6 i7 m+ b7 r$ z1 Rtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
, e5 d) g3 P- C' b- x) m$ ]clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries% a, }6 d7 Q, X0 b4 u' d
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop N4 b) Q$ E9 O5 z
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
0 P5 l/ N6 |. ^. q: f$ [- Gexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
}9 Q9 ` m- o/ P9 B% b5 Zrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the2 ]4 O9 L9 M* T3 B$ X G
country.3 e' ]! \5 ^4 Y% g
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario2 W, p Q0 w3 O6 v. D
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
$ ~; K6 T6 S9 @$ F( k5 G8 FPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,7 D1 B( B$ w& J9 d
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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7 U/ ~% y' {& M1 {. J About the Urban Land Institute
+ j* [$ h5 r7 D( `
( O( Y' X$ Q/ \9 z( S/ B5 p3 ] The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and( E* D, q$ r- Q5 T, ^, G
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide: H, l4 }( v# x
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
: k/ e4 {; _; w% i. Hthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
# E! k# p. H Z+ u, h, dthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
) i! T6 \0 ^& X% H+ x- }disciplines.
3 G. ~# x1 f0 U, q+ j$ V The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.% z2 E& q$ ]9 y* W. D& R) o
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District/ j9 k# O. ~3 G
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
. @, I. n! s" o2 H2 f( ^$ Z0 Znow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
1 l5 i! V% u; z, {" ]hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th, d# c+ L& }' `1 A4 m
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake0 w- t5 z& i, B/ P, ?5 a
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
3 f; ~$ K6 u: |President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please5 t7 R7 |3 Z5 L s5 h$ v; g
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
" u4 P9 p% I* j& U) f" kthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,9 ~, N4 Z- g5 S/ ^8 d, \
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com) A7 \5 |" ]5 D4 g& O1 R
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html! f4 m# U3 h5 q5 h+ j
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