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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
' n S7 K/ U5 q3 H2 {# m# U5 L s TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
+ X& t1 H$ W- X# dcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern& q7 k. ?; U, M* C% w" R$ A3 u
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging0 b. C/ s5 }7 l" B* k/ p1 I6 z
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)) x1 ]- I& O0 y; y, f% C
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more1 b+ `. h" c: ?" X
upbeat.
8 p& ~& [0 z( l1 ?, U Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded8 }3 @5 h0 [9 |1 T l
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
( w/ o! q2 g+ w' A6 w {/ q# hinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
2 L( `; }1 c8 J1 |6 v3 m7 xestate experts, including investors, developers, property company! L- a. h9 m/ \( j. w5 q* m" _) F- Y
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
% r8 M; W% O \2 j9 i) t8 S: OOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
8 ]: b$ U5 f/ K3 s d5 A$ Z4 Kincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
6 i% j9 |2 ?- B0 U According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian N1 P0 G2 O( D5 W" P; G
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
# s) W; ?* u1 {environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 ?- I7 h7 p( \& |' F
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
1 Y" n) y; u0 ghighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
" V! l* H% w/ i" r1 m According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 _* W; z! ^+ H) ?5 e; E# R) |border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
6 L2 X$ }2 U+ {. ~2 i& F; r) F3 Kspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
- E; l0 `- M4 `2 x* j$ n- Nremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
- z/ _: W4 n$ i/ l! c: Hcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be' T6 T# W# l1 J3 O, |4 u% S) y
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.! w8 w/ t7 q2 V* @/ Q5 l' O
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
2 {2 B; c k4 m* D+ Nrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by5 w. H6 q* V+ y- ~' `
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, L* N0 F4 @8 w, i1 ^/ A% C
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
8 F y. h& a/ p' H) l$ E. Tespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
6 j3 n* X% j$ `: H4 idevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The9 Y2 y1 K- u! s% w! u7 \. F
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
r& A' y2 I/ ]) Q! Otake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
! r, Y) Y( b5 D, _single-family housing looks overpriced.' f% b2 V/ N- n( s6 G% h" }& E
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with2 A( c, H/ y6 m+ E
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian5 P9 f0 T2 X3 t" D/ U
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
r% o+ p; u3 [* y2 xhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting2 Q0 g9 a' S3 C
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
/ W! d( q, B3 \6 b: _. Yand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental$ O+ r% k5 [8 k. r$ X9 u; r, z& ]
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
9 W2 K9 b) \, ], a) Rwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing5 C6 {, ?8 n0 y, M9 D) Y
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
: m" ]6 ^3 r. Ythe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
/ a6 ?7 }; V7 V3 Oin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., w6 I& {9 C, ?- ^0 I3 I
* P% Z+ b0 h J* X7 _( \ Canadian Markets to Watch
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6 @9 _. h1 H" H8 C9 { The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central& t# i$ P! J1 e9 c8 O7 V& P
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
9 L7 y4 n# ~* f" d8 i6 C! e- {8 i$ gneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back7 G8 O8 h P3 p$ e2 w3 E- k% |0 Y8 @ X
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
: t% K7 v, Y/ g$ N3 a+ ~5 Pdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical) x( l8 f: I* Q: y1 W$ D+ J4 ~
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out: }0 A( Z& x9 R; n L
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment3 ?. v8 g' b- Y/ S7 w
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain5 k7 v4 H' l+ a/ |. g* ?
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.6 w: O q0 x2 V1 {, s+ [
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high- n" Q$ h3 P# @+ g' {! @) b+ f$ Z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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/ e( s6 y6 z7 _3 z% c. r% m1 K Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
/ J$ _3 g6 ?( c$ L0 I/ ~7 Jboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a6 E ]" {- i9 z* v3 K" \) K0 T
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,* n2 N2 J: l% s$ i6 k, h; k
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.2 b3 N$ z4 K* x
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale# ]. B5 L6 H' N9 {( s& {' f
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
7 M8 o' S7 x% o2 O: T tCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
8 u9 |* U& s$ cstrong, this market will continue to do well.: `5 F! G5 U% h2 P. V
3 d N: k& J3 ~
Vancouver# x* `1 f1 d' V, o- p
4 f' N) D% u1 |+ C6 E6 @* l Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is8 |. A4 j# c. \' X1 Y {
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
3 S' R) `: f) m4 w- t" `: Qreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the4 `' H2 x4 u+ d2 x: B* Y
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
$ r% o3 h2 P% [) b f) L% a0 kgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy" g- F2 b# a% c9 T, T5 `
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%) Q2 v5 N* l$ k# ?6 O4 O3 [
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%. g: g- _; {8 V6 y* l' ]# Z4 k
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very* o/ }- z. t) G; ^/ i
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto( B; f+ A8 U; O" l% \$ `. m
9 c* m6 n* r' @9 [( M Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
3 V1 U9 _ S8 P& I! G9 f o& qmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
, Z+ k# z, ]5 ]relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) d5 ?. A( R2 u" bindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.0 F3 n U: N% I' Y( c
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 m3 j) j9 V1 c/ I9 Z6 Z
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and( y/ S! p3 z" {& \" S2 [$ v
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.' F9 `$ \/ F+ K6 ^. B
& X6 W( ]# i) T& i9 x9 E/ P Montreal' V" V# V* {5 \) p5 I0 @/ u
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall5 L* _5 F. _* i. z9 O' j( f) R
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 [- R; n& o$ W/ hshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
. r" Z1 k2 q' N( b' g& VCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
! D' m6 W. n9 y+ t R" ?: ^# {, g% bsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors9 o& A* H! n7 q. M
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
0 U e/ s5 d+ ]2 W( F7 [include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy, }& a( M. I3 \: C1 h+ }
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
4 I. R9 l# @6 w- R2 \near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest# Z! X( U7 {- ?" P I z
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
; P5 H- y' C1 u, t) Q* Bprices."+ F1 n; y' {2 b' ?4 A
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
8 b* @' n7 b$ p7 Y, P! H/ B# Owww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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3 y8 W/ y; m* Z! k About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,$ a# H( d) \$ P2 F/ _
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its$ V2 m* O8 J8 @4 n) I" K3 s
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries$ I3 y( I9 H% K' y0 }
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
. s2 p8 v7 q9 ?8 v- n; Sfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of. E# n9 \3 B/ W4 k
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
7 H9 G* X a1 T& g2 {* v Y% G0 nrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
) u! y& _4 ^0 X+ p1 Lcountry.- o, c. i' e. i$ C, q' c0 ^
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario# k8 e$ A: V" ^' R
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
- P! Y1 |8 }: u* y6 X/ oPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
9 e0 G, e" Y- a3 {each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.! n$ n4 S/ Y6 X; S: V2 I
; V# H5 i) r# [0 P. H
About the Urban Land Institute6 k; g8 L* |& t$ _' a2 [5 T5 }
9 O9 G( ^) }- g: n4 @$ B
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
+ t3 h) y8 h2 \2 S& [2 m6 Q; Qresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide$ ^9 n8 o$ }0 R- `* N
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating+ C D) A6 u& P( o% I1 ~; M: V
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more5 h# B3 d0 r- h
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
2 d0 W/ o2 F, G; A7 Pdisciplines.0 @4 i3 }3 I9 d: R
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
0 i0 R$ b- E- W4 [# zWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District: l$ P3 ?& v; ^& L6 c
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
: q3 ]! j! H6 P/ d8 {now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
, i4 i2 Q+ x1 [2 Bhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
: q' _* @0 B# E* H2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
% f* v' d" ]( i6 g$ ~7 YHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
7 h0 s) Y! f MPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 o+ {: E# R- `& o. ?! ^4 L" w- }
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! i v- G0 J# j( A: q/ Q8 |) b+ Sthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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+ J) e' c2 q2 r% N3 ?7 D$ L) q- U1 l# p
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% A0 I& J% c$ p4 x2 `7 c
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
4 q3 U% q1 w! j5 b1 g4 u- N. whttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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8 N8 m. s' k+ W0 w+ h* A[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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