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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ! ~8 }0 b \4 s3 l" H* X. k& _
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US0 h" Q! l) V- d) ~ H3 u9 k) X
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
# p0 j* T. G& w. pas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging) n2 \( M' j8 Y
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
& \$ t1 `1 L3 x [4 hand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more+ o @1 H, [, g$ d) l; G% I
upbeat.
5 Z2 l( a' O0 _4 h: ^' |. [ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded; L3 v+ v& `2 y* X, w2 N: q" i
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects& @3 H. \0 I @/ d- T1 ]3 X$ M$ \
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real/ L' W) D0 u( @3 [1 |0 w7 k
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
2 I: p+ O3 @0 X+ D# B0 b' F( Grepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US." g- f- p; \0 s
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 B8 B, e) y+ E' ]6 i' y/ A5 B) u7 i
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
2 Q# c/ {& e" S) f$ \! s According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
" {5 Q- k; P2 {1 WReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
) n" t8 P& H9 p8 ~environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to. ]* p/ \% Z1 @) U8 L2 _
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
3 X. A% D3 c" N2 _6 ihighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."( k+ n9 y9 i( N8 [. c. v" n+ }1 \5 ~) O. L
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the8 O0 S$ E, A( j6 v
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
% n2 `$ O8 ^. u8 a: x: w; cspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey, o5 e7 x# P7 U1 S
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
& x( K" m9 a2 N" |' [" l1 Gcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
; }0 n8 g: N2 H3 T5 k! Q! Svery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
8 t: b+ E- G* p+ v; ~ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
3 B9 }0 ~1 _5 v$ \. W4 P' W% wrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
! T; s# d/ \8 a* Xcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land- [ Q3 W0 a4 }
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
" Q3 ]! [* C- w6 e5 q3 ?especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating* Z: ~8 R6 f" s. r+ P
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The* m1 U* K, p9 X
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
" W! r2 ^0 k8 c! z5 e9 e& \1 Qtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
6 b& L x: U, u. ?6 J9 L7 }single-family housing looks overpriced.2 `* e" [" L1 D/ x3 V Z
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
# y* U/ ^7 f# U: h7 E. Jtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
7 E# z: z" i2 A9 }5 Mmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) m. j/ D6 I" q- Q$ ?7 P
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting; b2 F) h, C5 X' z
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,$ }8 y% o1 }% |$ V
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
8 \6 Q/ P+ F' ]1 C" v& e- n1 Fapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
; S/ O6 _7 R, t: ?8 vwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing' l! i2 C2 G7 X) a2 i% k! f# N8 G
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# o* f" j% |0 Y3 A3 P
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
( p' Q5 n: S1 ^; C( W! Din other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.1 \4 E4 [& ]* U: x: Y
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Canadian Markets to Watch8 B6 H7 v0 ?) a$ Q/ B. x1 ]
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central; h% k! e6 u5 f8 a2 J, W$ z
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
. R" }, P0 y; o" D0 Dneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back& p8 R9 x3 W" f2 x- n5 p" V
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
' u% w: S5 r) ^# b+ Y% c# i) kdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
0 K- z1 ?- h } |/ Vprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out8 Z* {& ^! Y) p" ]* h0 S
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
I+ u/ j/ u; T; ^: Fprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
" H5 ]0 k9 I* O- p/ d, hwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
2 \3 H, {3 k9 tToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
- n6 `6 U( ?4 ^: @ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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% y0 p: ~5 _1 y. k8 ~ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
L; P9 L v: z' i' A# i2 xboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
1 V6 P( z3 S4 V j* k4 e7 `' @buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
. j4 v& D4 D- N. x3 t48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
8 W' F' u2 M& jFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
0 W' ?) k/ n1 v: _& _Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the- W1 v# Q4 x8 Z) G) [* \, l- f
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
2 o; R3 G" g9 v1 p \' s7 vstrong, this market will continue to do well./ @# }: I+ E, t! r2 }: n" g
! k: c, i: Y ^. R# J Vancouver o( o3 m5 w6 }; @+ @6 L
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
8 U+ Y4 v7 r: X+ H4 @3 ^7 ~, w; e8 Pbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous+ {0 \+ e. P0 b! y/ o Z
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the* Q" p+ D- t+ q5 m8 T
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a! U* n3 E3 Z: _, Q
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
, ~3 y+ f1 r3 o+ A) `# K2 c( j% Wrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%+ i7 W9 I, w4 K4 i
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%- H& Z: \* O& q/ y5 r" O- P5 z6 @
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
1 Z7 w; P' [, z/ ^! q) I1 M* N$ Vgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.' h0 J9 j: X4 { t0 {9 B- e# A
6 m3 J' J+ v" H Toronto* h- ?, X5 h* V/ B. C
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
$ K, W6 h- E/ d& nmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is! ~1 r* \$ L. L. P6 \( K& n
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing/ Q# g# L7 v6 B; I5 b0 `3 S
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.$ t) Y1 t2 V2 ? P& X# U4 V
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
' J8 U8 A B" _2 rfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and3 S3 F6 @. \6 {8 {' I" b& n/ V0 J3 }
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. w2 M7 r9 S: p8 N: N$ A
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up9 x6 \1 E, a3 j% h1 X( A8 q
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
% Y9 F7 }- ~, d; y: {- LCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate2 C# z* L3 F7 g2 ^) `
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors0 P( T9 T% u U9 y; \
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
) D; X/ {7 j! B" V8 k& {% U; j, Pinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy4 b) U' e4 _% k9 a9 U' p
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos) w. u$ j, t0 o( u( E
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest$ B8 T* X/ f! Z4 a* j7 z$ O
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
6 [! Q, K2 ^, `, v2 N$ ~; Uprices."" m, E. }4 z; Q( q; ]+ s
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at, T$ k: r7 \* d! M
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers/ o, g4 B+ y- u' G9 J: G7 Q
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,1 [: a5 f% ?+ m( O) k
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
$ t1 {% U& F3 c7 Gclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
, g4 ~* }% C, B' S1 H* F0 l8 Eacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ [7 [" o" W! t! |% ~0 V/ @" F- M
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of2 U. c( z) P6 I: Z
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
: m6 w$ B# l8 Y$ t+ B2 ~" Rrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the1 V' N8 `3 W. G; p/ t$ E
country.
0 u* ?; `* B4 S9 g2 K "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
! U5 s! F2 N+ x) U; c" ^5 Rlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the- x- p, V n8 z A
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,: l% q" _. ^! m. n7 M- d" L& P
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute8 d( ] H2 a9 y5 \" e
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and- d# ~# V h( W1 r: S
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
. `6 h8 e% T6 w+ H0 o( }4 Aleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
: m* ]( H5 ]4 k1 O( ~thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more4 j9 o/ v, g' O: a) a/ @
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: _3 }/ o) B; O# {+ B- ^6 Y4 Udisciplines.
: @2 s1 a; F* U( @' j# g! r# y c% h The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.! O1 @ Q( A2 l4 s7 w" O
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District/ p& r# |; b9 O& i: c& b( G- o
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is7 _0 C5 J9 W( I% [9 \
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be+ v6 t8 y6 O8 g
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,9 S3 t, v5 M% b$ ^7 }7 C
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' h4 A; T$ s2 hHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
$ ?# O! J( \- f9 pPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
/ i4 P, g( ?8 q0 T/ ycall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on* }6 Y1 y& E2 |
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066./ g. o) P0 S& |# A/ z5 i9 s- I0 Z
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+ ]: s/ w& Q8 m8 H' v L$ l
6 a- h: s. z8 w4 }( A, F4 S* iFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
. l4 v8 R+ k. ?6 m ^4 v/ O4 v$ K4 i(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com) _2 A' h# r+ K6 P; o
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html/ H+ }1 }, ^% i
. h, P. l4 L" Q; C+ J8 ]% w# o9 j* r[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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