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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
4 ^( k! s7 \. k TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
& X* K5 p" T4 R6 [commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern6 m9 Y7 b5 G9 R$ b0 P7 x1 R
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging1 a1 r* X. d8 I5 a# n
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)# o* y, Q3 u7 S2 d! N
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more3 f5 p/ S0 }! Y9 u5 C8 z8 C, _+ L
upbeat.
6 }+ Z- q% Z D8 ? Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
9 m8 ~& o6 Y) a6 U vannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" S- }, ~+ N5 w* X1 E: x M5 linterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
: x7 g* t; P* f% Z1 F( v% ^estate experts, including investors, developers, property company- k% R0 p/ V( _" P* @8 U( q0 @
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.1 @+ a" q. M% P! |
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
% W" B! t7 [. s( |4 j7 y* p1 |/ W0 P( Nincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.( d# }. g/ c- c- H4 G1 S6 F! \) c
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 r6 n" A) A- ~7 b b7 A
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment! D$ B# y. K. k* `" I9 M1 U
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
$ y2 e7 p) p* s% s) @& ~3 Xbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
~# J2 W/ x! }7 |$ _4 C7 J+ Phighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."3 i9 L z9 a* @ y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the5 G" {. h6 R% i
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game# ?! U r: c6 a3 _1 F+ c' ?" Z
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey) v* W5 C' V7 n" m8 e% I
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
1 u9 m5 e1 v, V" [- I, Wcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
/ c6 f% g+ x2 P- x. S8 ivery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent., h0 b( {, ]6 p# a& z$ Y& k
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian* C* @& J9 k, {: k$ Z4 ]
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
: j% N# J% g7 gcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
& H5 p% O+ X) v8 f6 N3 Ldevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country0 H6 P+ b# E: P! M* |
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating' o8 ~! Q9 t3 [: @( u. d/ Q
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
4 X) V5 [. m# w: W% y* }7 F+ jresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
' A, Q" g! v; m" Otake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and3 H; {) j2 c8 U/ r1 B5 p6 m: m
single-family housing looks overpriced.! V C4 p7 m9 l1 k. f" i
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
3 O8 {+ X6 z# b3 D: g6 x. j1 O+ ]" gtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian5 @5 Z' \& c* _' l; h
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
. Q1 ]- K* @2 H- khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting1 z+ a% W8 a- u: j. l4 L- U
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,! ], @5 D$ D4 I# Y
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental5 Z; D. C2 X' l9 _. ~; n
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
1 g" ]6 M. l: j& ?, y6 Hwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing: K# q+ ?, e5 m' ~/ |) v
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into9 J7 ^/ h. {( O5 ^. m
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development( B9 |* y' i. F( S* i; t
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.3 m: S2 P1 F! h$ x x+ C/ L: e
' I' H. B+ d% ?7 v Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central) F! O4 F, M* U) ]. g
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
. E% }3 S2 U( F1 bneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
6 n" r N6 R. v, Kinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in2 h, z/ @: U! q2 o' Q2 N
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
; m# \2 a. |& D& g! mprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out$ w+ S7 C9 l' H B: ~% w/ R7 h5 T
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment0 X0 ^* I' l; H& t' M. l
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
& P; q, l+ }' p( {. mwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this., M* f+ ~% O3 A. t
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
H9 h# p0 U& Wratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton; v6 e0 a- V2 M6 d& ^6 X" b+ |
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
; B/ D5 M' M. U4 ?. Q% u2 K6 Cboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
) Q7 k3 P# t, B$ [( M+ K: s Ubuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,' U! G! N7 @% m5 o+ ?% o9 v2 P
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.# ~7 [( e+ q9 I
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale' {6 j& ~$ Q" f, ~
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the% _1 P6 s& [% j3 u# G+ s
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
; y) T. Q @: x; _) h Lstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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6 ]& |+ l) a+ {/ r0 U Vancouver9 Y: I$ f! a' R, b
" ~6 h7 Q9 e# h. K7 F Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is* N& \( u# j+ @: Q" C1 T5 F
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous" \, e- O: F! |0 n8 x6 r* j
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
2 h( S# O; i2 ~market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a" u$ g( R0 P& M, r% }
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
8 H7 T* g+ b3 y$ zrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%; x. y/ X$ E, B6 m8 [7 I
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%$ f) K. f D( S; W4 p+ N. c
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
( A3 O+ s" B& v: ~good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.7 t. x$ n/ n9 q0 `" ]/ V
- [5 Z$ K# A2 y3 i& b% g Toronto. B* B7 W: l( ^2 w5 n$ R7 k; z3 P
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
( s" S# O7 m7 ?manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is9 G" l2 n7 u' v% d
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing- r x! Z# B) u9 l& ]; F
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
( [: B2 G$ Q% [- A% I( n$ UThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
5 |4 ?5 ^7 p6 E. r5 |feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and& l: ]) T& `; c- h* N" Z, y* u5 T1 k' k
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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' o: X0 {5 q' x, F Montreal6 \9 V* X) {4 j
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
1 N! g7 `( ?# \* V1 xgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up/ n: o) Y( a5 X- S
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
( n7 h, ^0 g5 j/ d# e5 J* MCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ k% y+ |, q$ ^% g( G4 ~% usectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
- s! K; {1 g- l- }! Xhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
' H- K3 s; ~( u& S! X3 x$ X2 tinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
# l! x& T% P5 w/ S1 t: @markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos; {& k- g* v, V6 P, _
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
8 y* q5 Y0 {" l; @6 t7 f& Voverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current) @* e8 v' ]: l9 v8 X' y3 g6 k# V
prices."
O3 Q& v- ]: _8 F' N A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at: c1 d2 |% Q) ~" @2 {) _
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
8 d t* g2 f5 Gtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
7 ~: |5 w: l% ~4 N% M8 oclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries1 R% ] A7 K% r: I9 x/ J
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
6 z( ?8 \% S' q' e( Ffresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
" n. U. d, v) m& t+ @5 Pexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its" L6 r. z& S4 ^& T
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
8 W! T. U9 c8 |/ Y5 V1 fcountry. ?% i! }( E7 b" _4 t% h6 Z, P
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* o& p! z. Q2 ?limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
8 Z P/ R) }( ~& _ vPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,3 E3 ]0 j) B) v/ V% x9 g, e2 N! L
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.+ E5 b- y- f$ Q" R! J+ P3 N
& E! B; R. h& P9 }# m
About the Urban Land Institute+ s3 Z2 K5 l% Y; K( } C
) x, O1 Y# j4 _ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and) k, i- L9 U. d6 v5 t
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide; \8 W/ W# V7 s& i8 U
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
2 D! h6 i- J# W6 Rthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
0 y$ I& T# P5 ~) G3 K( S# ]than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
1 G: y5 N6 B$ q+ ldisciplines.% p5 a+ w0 \5 U z3 p+ a% c/ \
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.) s4 d# R2 T1 X" r$ j
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District) I6 X# B+ G5 c4 U8 i; E0 d
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is8 V# `6 n2 M8 D
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
& I$ E1 _4 z d0 s) Y3 qhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,6 g- [; Q Z/ X% q9 h
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake1 j8 J" [: C1 |7 v$ F4 k
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,! r& l+ F$ R: o4 [6 _
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
l+ g1 G+ O8 N/ {2 [" x5 {! ^! g% Dcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
$ |, R$ B _0 g- _9 vthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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9 H" U. l* N5 r3 Q4 E; I/ I" z& I" q7 F1 M* r
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
* ]- C5 g$ X3 U(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com" ?! E, R, H9 A
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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