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Attention Real Estate Reporters: $ V) u Q, [1 J2 s
. t# f/ M' v: J, B$ i: {
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
; A3 ?. y, K y3 ^- @" s5 e# b TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
( I# y- a6 G0 j3 s0 X9 lcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern* B+ e% I+ v! ?' E
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 B- q4 J: f* T1 TTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)& e/ u4 F/ N6 f' q: `1 ^; u
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
: L$ O; l& g/ N, I' lupbeat.. V1 ~# s/ |* O! p; |
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 ]5 d, M" g7 V4 ]! Aannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
1 ]$ O( Q$ ~2 W$ a! l7 b- ainterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real( ?* C f! A! k, R# E
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company. o9 O/ Q: e W- v$ Z. a2 f0 f) T
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
% ^7 Q+ ]2 W% Q3 K ^2 cOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
( n5 g" I T0 H) d0 _% `including Asia Pacific and Europe.7 c- q6 ~' b* B1 M1 V( j$ w0 h! b' a
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
: [* `6 O9 l% a$ B2 ^+ k: S/ o5 dReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment3 Q0 T2 E% H, L7 L9 C6 R
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 G7 z4 i4 E8 r0 \: y
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
2 f; c! {) n. \9 O( M* |& Nhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."1 o0 b: [4 f" X* _+ I/ U: G L
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& `- D: ?; P; r& M: I5 N& v
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
8 y! i# j& `7 [. r B* b: E" T& dspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
& R! A' `. N: |; y9 P% Cremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US& K. x6 s5 p! j& L# B! m
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be9 h: y: R1 H# i! b4 m
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
6 k8 B/ b& K L9 ], |) c/ j2 @ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian7 v6 }- k/ J l
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by5 D' w- Q* O, x" @5 S
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land% C+ L; w9 ~( m0 i
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
0 V3 L+ w1 c& I6 z: D g) sespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
. G3 |- @% x) Ddevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
) J2 b% H( Z0 w2 V; f; D$ hresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to; d; {8 s, ~! O' L) D
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and6 J4 y$ c1 i4 e! ^ n0 z, C) W. y
single-family housing looks overpriced.& \8 H4 c- J8 I
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
: i, m" p' t1 q; T( ~' \tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
, T" ?4 V$ T1 e2 J7 K& Emetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
6 ^0 Z6 k0 B, m1 x# E# Hhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
; h+ k9 I* ?; \1 w% H2 b+ Enew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,' v; Z4 r" K# w$ p6 O% H% B
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
+ d4 c3 ]' ^$ c9 r. \: D0 Wapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
4 H* H% j+ \9 ]2 ewestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
, l: t2 _9 z @2 x. rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
: J5 I& ] x$ hthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development+ W9 v3 [" ~$ }8 ]! P' e& E
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
3 L8 a c: {8 }" J' D& a( o
5 [# R1 y% Y) E; U Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central* d* ]1 r: t, Z( J: r6 `- b
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
" {5 C3 R/ }5 i& P) [neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back; x; H1 u& d0 @$ h2 k
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
. _) N# Y$ [$ |) {1 o$ h& edowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical1 C, W3 V }- c* [0 P" F4 [: t( z
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
7 F" ~, ]( |4 x3 cwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment" v6 i, X6 _" P6 X
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain0 L. E- E b+ d" T: B( ]4 _
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
. y2 X" ?5 k- x) q5 zToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high- b% V( d p( }
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
% v [! V3 O$ N! x/ _4 Hboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
* Y# l8 H0 X; _! \- U" C% R( |& cbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
+ {. |9 J2 x, f/ Y5 K48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.' R. g% f0 U! c! _/ c9 E
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale2 P, Q3 B# C6 m3 U1 g1 G1 H( u
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
9 ?& @( X: z& I# z8 ?Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays) l4 f- y& M# F, h. Q. q: n/ G. L
strong, this market will continue to do well.- M9 @4 a, w2 e( G- c2 j/ h1 ^
; A7 L- E. Y/ p0 t# p# j E. [ Vancouver" T$ j& y0 h9 z% T
: E/ Y" l# ` l9 S* z% i% A Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is( G+ Z. C% k6 x2 E$ C8 ^
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
! S# |2 v. j8 v5 Zreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the( B& w$ F& r3 ^$ i c( n6 ?! M* C K
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
S/ V; ^9 s! W: n% X- _growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy s+ X* }* C D( {. \- g1 |
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
6 Q! d- {9 y4 qfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
" e5 }: H/ [) H& r: yfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very, {* \4 B" f. X3 i1 O% B2 F
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.) g$ f5 k3 I4 G. I8 X
6 F5 ?9 ]" ^' t6 o5 n Toronto& I' u# V4 J' U+ v" W. O
+ J$ w2 a3 I. k- L6 v
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and3 W6 T2 m0 f/ E) c) @7 ?
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
- G6 I( O! Q. s4 U7 Krelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing7 b! ^ P5 ~6 t" x
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.6 s+ e! u6 g9 L% s2 \% N
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
3 Z- z) n" a+ yfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and ]' s+ h3 S0 _4 d' e3 b8 @6 I
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
5 [9 K- Y- `/ D$ \" S% I
: Y% n3 T S! Q- X! }- K Montreal
+ Q; K" n' k8 q- |- |7 q) Z- M, W; P8 Q* l" p0 V' b- z9 R
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall* x4 W$ r6 M% a0 y. y$ T* L/ a
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
9 y- E( {2 b) i {shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
; V( f3 h1 N2 {4 k) A0 gCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate% [9 K- O1 V& S d3 M* ^6 l- u
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
4 m. C. Z/ M$ i/ E: H' Chigher as a "hold" recommendation.8 ]8 ?2 W" Y e$ z, T; c" H
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
8 w5 g6 z: q2 x: O) L Finclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy7 m6 n+ d0 z4 ] X
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos+ y; u1 j- X6 T/ \. Y$ p. D
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; ?* v. m. d% b0 b8 k: Q$ F
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current& x, z1 f; D! s& o# U3 N* i: S
prices."( D, N* f, c$ T0 ]3 G) M
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
j j- b6 C: h9 a. Cwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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' ?7 A- z4 K( V/ j# M3 t. Z About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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* Y. g5 Z- a9 u PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,6 ^% _/ ]+ z: f' G6 x: e
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its1 t4 h2 w/ z( k' k V" [# ]* v6 w8 U
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries A3 _( ? q2 w0 x- v" M; a
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
& R9 b6 \7 B1 v9 h8 [* Xfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of4 e( k$ c: u8 E4 \, {, M" S; r% c0 d
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
* A( V$ ~, t H, `5 u+ t! arelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
7 |# m& w% b2 O7 ?. Kcountry.
; B9 I+ o5 N% B% F& W- c k" ~5 H "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario, L! l% y6 B$ x N1 U+ J
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the! ^* b E. L# ^; \: @
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
0 z. ]& \5 C- t, \each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.4 p. e3 n1 f, M) Y5 T
% |1 e5 Q L m5 M: _4 E4 Z' h5 S About the Urban Land Institute
8 A+ Y/ @5 {) g3 K4 Q4 t. t- P
" z- [! r0 T1 q- _% [% W" h1 g The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
+ ^; @8 q. e. @0 i- Qresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
1 p3 k+ A- U5 g1 dleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& j1 Z) m! j' U: H6 Tthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
3 L* Y$ |* N1 T1 jthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
4 b7 H9 \" F, L* w$ j6 U: |" Qdisciplines.
) X$ ^ ^) s7 l( Y. B% z1 w7 Q The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
8 ~5 o) n% a% y: `8 WWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
5 n9 }/ b9 m+ JCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
/ T: W0 h' H n6 K ?0 r0 I: onow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
* K3 M0 a" P) Khosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,& u7 S' V$ J# z
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
5 V" A$ E* q lHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
: }4 j4 u% [" ]+ m1 T) @President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please) P, I) O! m7 ~) x& N: N2 m# B9 H
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
; C6 C7 R1 {, fthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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+ q |2 [, P" I/ m9 \3 H% z5 `# A: v+ m5 v2 M- K6 e
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
+ z x+ D8 T5 q, m' Z4 g2 _(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# }7 b8 x8 v7 Jhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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