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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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5 q/ U5 m. ? y' |! {Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
; {, a# d! y% W. b% f# a, } TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
$ A/ N+ ~, W" D/ Z0 ycommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
% p3 q7 p D/ g' N& k8 F0 ~as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging p5 n- a! S2 n8 i; A
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC); l: H$ {! r" t0 x2 M! N1 m
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more" z; i8 @. L5 ]
upbeat.5 Z8 J* C$ ?* L$ G
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
5 t# k- r& k% cannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects' e: _) k. ? c1 I
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real* @ w4 A% b7 ~2 X
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
. m0 Z$ ?3 w5 m9 L- B$ X8 Xrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
! f. f2 r/ }' t% @Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world) i4 a* k; a" x* i! [
including Asia Pacific and Europe.' H9 P" R& e# {+ o% p- a: S! y# {% e
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian& o9 a7 j. B' ?8 C
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
: f1 i( j% {( R) A5 renvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to2 A: _7 {! X. Y) `" y8 F
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record" m* o: l# y Z8 H) c c
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."1 `2 v( }/ G" x
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
9 o) @7 E& L: W/ @: g) e. `border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game2 S( @8 J* h8 ? Y: E( c' v
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey$ h' x9 U9 G8 ~0 o
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
2 v' F* c. L) z4 E7 j9 icorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# _9 S8 B: C, B# Svery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 O' a' o0 z# E0 _ O The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian0 M3 I: N4 x' `7 p
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by6 P5 B9 R- l% }. a
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land9 j* \" R( a4 y3 I. ]& U9 [
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
- x2 o6 `5 m, v( b Z2 X. ?especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
2 O$ a) |5 Y: z3 Mdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The& q5 @' q( p9 m. q9 `
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to S( W% l% K+ k5 w; `% n
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
* o* g8 h3 `5 L5 d/ wsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
5 h! N) H- N7 Y- W4 D& t/ u: s Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with r$ A- B8 ~1 w; B* v2 ?
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian5 @: S" w% Y. W4 m( J
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
$ a" S3 [) S& ^higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
' c g/ ^- r, h3 A2 {. Tnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,# W* U) K/ z1 q
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
( z" n3 m, k( Y3 s# f+ napartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
; J0 W' }$ A3 J, e+ y% rwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
% P+ V2 \/ e# |4 S, ^: b [shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into' s/ i. f5 Z( B. z& D9 w
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
) J1 v2 c1 @0 q+ U$ \) X) \ ^in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity. U4 ]( c- P2 j- ~8 ?1 T9 m
+ A6 L' F$ d8 s: @$ f4 w
Canadian Markets to Watch2 r: j5 V2 |+ B; O$ ^9 F
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central7 i6 V4 r: E( M
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour$ f- v9 Z1 {9 ]) U& g( L @
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back! X' x; R: p, P, ]5 E. {
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in# ^0 u+ i* a$ w _7 w
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical5 X* o% F& X8 d
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
% `1 d# Y4 ^4 Mwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment; \0 M, P& Q9 p- y8 A q" \3 o; e
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
! K" ^1 f- L: v9 M4 qwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this. h0 ?. T3 y) Q& K
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high8 x6 P( C! S6 l; j; q: \# `
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging./ M8 y O0 \. R6 g8 M
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
Z% j% C( V: E7 z0 C% J% Bboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a0 S+ H4 V5 I+ c8 ]6 v& ~
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
T# }' A# x1 O6 v) r" Z48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.1 n# D' I3 \/ Q8 f' ^8 @# N$ x
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale# C6 p/ c" u6 b J/ h
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
; r+ \% P2 l1 I& K4 s! Q# n zCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
1 K/ w9 G, U9 H$ gstrong, this market will continue to do well., ~0 k! A) L0 E% ~, v- Y
6 L/ A$ k+ [1 m c* r# C; ? Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is. C. V3 b) h& j" L- C6 O0 F
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 b$ W; W/ O- D: u! Y) l Y: treal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the( o6 n8 z4 G/ K& ~( R
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
' X, h" m! w. k: G2 Y; d) S( vgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
% s, m& {& m5 X/ @$ r0 L0 @recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3% f8 i% I* m. m+ s
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%- R) e3 u+ Y7 m9 h
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
) K) E1 ~ ^% [good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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+ `" n( O" i6 B# n; w6 P Toronto8 @0 ]3 y( X" d
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
8 B3 A3 ]& _2 n2 X: a" S( Q1 N4 Emanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is- Q6 ?( P( e" w: w: z
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
. v8 u1 g/ u7 Eindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.& W' }: X; |' ]/ Z0 u4 I+ L5 i
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square- O& i% F# s9 B9 V+ y
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
/ ^! \+ Y! N4 r. `" k8 ~9 |Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.& x2 O; B. X7 r9 x& V
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Montreal/ S" I }; X3 C+ k' m
|! u5 F5 }: E9 I4 N' x5 ]- r Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall# v6 e: B! H, O& I; D$ m3 ~
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
; R. Y- m. ~7 p- _4 I$ c) jshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
8 F4 ` U, n! I4 R& G* ?- f' MCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate/ ]1 C8 A7 }2 W8 @5 {; S" A) r
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
8 a$ T* x& ^5 u- O" x) Yhigher as a "hold" recommendation./ K I5 a1 L6 c; Y7 I! J) n, g
+ K1 o" n0 G' L$ D9 H& L The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
8 x1 [2 H1 {7 X7 f/ v9 Rinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy; m |* p* f; @+ ?
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 d7 X' I: c8 H- ]: _8 f& x* P$ A( |
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
/ ]5 l- Z' K% h. ?: K1 K% Zoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
% `* Q2 `. \/ j3 Eprices."6 @, l2 O: z& G/ A
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at/ M1 N5 {& r M3 x( v" }% l
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
. ]% [+ b# t! q' Ktax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its. i/ }+ O( \$ F) X
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries9 I! F/ L* B U2 j& M5 ^
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
1 u/ K, W% k. X4 e5 Ffresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
5 r# U6 w% J7 e3 B6 E zexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its; T- _/ u5 }/ s. _6 M1 E
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the: `9 q, x, @) P# q, B( s; n# B) d0 Y
country.
0 D& \- J9 _/ ~ "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario2 {% z# t7 I& p
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the4 `3 y' O6 g4 |
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network, e' `6 z6 k9 S) Y: B! Q
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.3 V) v" Q' @- a4 U$ w V. \
( Q# K* k/ }- B0 Z; E
About the Urban Land Institute0 r& n% F3 r+ G1 F( l
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 ]' T' @- F3 n$ O
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
+ b0 P; X" u( }( j# M' }leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating7 m1 P5 @, o+ I$ H0 ?+ ~5 V
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
9 m5 J. _& j+ W7 B, Vthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
1 x+ V1 z( n& x1 C4 U, _disciplines.
: d/ @1 u- ?& H( |' }$ C/ b" |! {! f The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
0 P9 N" S3 j& O/ ~7 O EWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
j7 C. W; g+ n; TCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
6 Z/ Z/ C/ r r- c+ ynow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
2 ?3 P. A r6 Y5 ?- shosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,2 B3 `9 \! c0 q( U3 h3 i8 o: W6 G
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
/ G1 I9 W! a/ w% j# W5 YHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
, S( n$ l- n) Q" b% I+ V/ [President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please! N: o T. d. |3 c! y
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on' C2 \. {9 {9 t
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066., A Q* ?; Y# ~
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# P F1 S" Z1 g) \0 e: ]- TFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,0 @* T& a# w9 W C( w
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
7 G/ L; n2 N& zhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html8 j- P* N/ Q& w+ G) v) W& N
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