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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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* {/ G! J W% W3 MDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
& n: A( r9 B8 K TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US2 v! Y" Y$ i6 M' U5 b
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern1 ]3 I" }5 W4 Q; ~- l
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 e4 e2 w/ N# l d9 v8 }$ WTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
* r q! `4 [3 H( {6 _, J% fand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
4 {# l* @# e0 g! ~9 g7 H; tupbeat.
& P( g0 \, j1 s# B: `" x6 H Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded1 a7 @# _0 {3 K& Y+ J; k& [) R. S
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects; @& w; x/ E$ z) s/ k, \& O
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
+ P: X) d1 g0 A, ?; t# Q+ yestate experts, including investors, developers, property company' p, E6 P" F0 U
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US. F/ f1 U; k+ n) a- m
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
# w3 E( F% `) _. P4 {including Asia Pacific and Europe.
) ?3 X0 I7 ~: \* H& u According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian! A7 N2 ?& B- `3 i* F; P- W
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
8 r8 |: l: w1 r, b/ a9 senvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
! K) l/ P& @0 tbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record' b7 E* R* n+ X l9 G9 ^
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
G2 W7 ~% z1 e( { According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the: e) g; C! M3 I2 U. V4 U' j, o
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
7 |3 n7 c9 h) B9 r/ K, ]" Q Ispeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey8 l6 }& Z( d3 ~# {, G$ n6 l. f
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US/ w" d( ?% ]: v; |
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
! g( o" A: o! Gvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.3 Z) }* P- W0 L6 L
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
) H* W n! D8 T e$ S) [respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by* R( Q7 M& X( }5 A6 j0 \+ ]( Q
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
$ W1 b! D3 u8 C6 bdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
, u; R3 N+ ?8 {. Zespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
; P3 {0 \. l4 f- o. Qdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The* T7 d4 R" i$ r$ W
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
3 z1 b i) C- X1 M! _1 Ktake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
# G9 a8 u: o! K% \) j R, x1 U! a( rsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
: }/ O4 ?( }# E Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with1 }9 t6 i& v6 E$ o
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian c: d ]6 J( l3 o/ f' r
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
0 R5 C7 r3 D# ghigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
( J* J+ `, ?; Z& H9 Y& B7 T9 znew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
1 o6 G5 Z! g. _8 n, Y8 L! k+ _and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental# ^5 Z" Y4 }3 {$ N# S* H
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary. O5 I* _0 n; x5 Y
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
) u$ w$ h3 P W1 ~% B! E4 @7 F7 zshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into/ |- {. ?; R, r2 A( e- V' @
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
; e0 k, e3 t* H. I! Win other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.1 c4 j) L& n6 c2 O! r* e
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Canadian Markets to Watch, h# G+ B) g# q! M
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central8 c) g: [2 y8 b% _! ]3 M. @
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
% i [, s' e; W9 m2 v" xneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back- S* v3 p7 }- L) B6 k" K Z
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
0 G6 n% f. M/ U. J( r: F" Fdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
9 p: q, p9 [6 Rprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
) |2 K! S5 F1 W6 ywest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
9 I- K* b3 |! }4 @" b" F- Oprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain6 l1 n1 j& O8 O: L. t
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.& E- ]$ a( I3 z" N
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
2 U' U) B+ e2 d1 L& J j' ^+ b/ w0 Uratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.3 X; L6 D1 R/ M% U9 y2 |
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one3 b7 {; V0 h6 T6 w) @5 l# B
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
, l+ o: m* ?3 s- Obuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,6 y5 A/ |! i+ M
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.9 s8 ~4 i: a3 K' c: w& J& @
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale6 J1 s6 O/ |9 l1 a3 _5 A3 }/ _
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) S; T8 }1 X/ S2 a
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays8 l( A4 J) _% A1 y$ u9 l
strong, this market will continue to do well.0 }, u% d, F; I% b' S
2 P0 B5 Q. U2 M4 _
Vancouver
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/ m+ V5 B* U- n0 Z6 h& r Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
% S- v# w3 T2 Cbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous5 T2 A0 G3 L# T; P( J
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
7 D3 q o* z6 Z, a) n: Z) smarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a1 O& ^3 l) F4 f0 i& U
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
) y' M- E) |+ ]6 K$ }recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
0 B7 l# f; C, l7 G) O) L% qfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
- b6 M) y. I. A9 f3 Bfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 a7 N/ V; i: Zgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.7 G+ ]) z) G6 o, ?* D6 B% @
5 _! J$ ~/ H; x. G Toronto* @) F- H" e- j- i
# `( H3 v- _; H% u Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and; k: J: v( B- \6 G
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is& G, o4 p+ H+ P' W- `' j @' a
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
, P; n/ K. c4 I1 @7 N1 pindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
3 P! N1 @' K1 `! m# T8 u* oThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
@" |& P R: q3 f% I5 U: m0 j- Sfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and# _: B2 c2 k) v5 h' b
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
* \: {- ]' W$ A1 ]- a; A% ?growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
9 p5 ~; ^5 R( M8 J( bshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in2 K3 [/ L0 P( k8 q' R
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate6 Y6 D1 @; r2 |7 ?' U! U& j
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors4 v# T4 w9 U6 H% i0 M
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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0 j3 l0 X1 p" K+ p5 A The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% R5 ` G9 [9 ?3 j ~8 ~
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy8 {" G3 u: N/ x+ r
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 z5 m4 }! b9 C, {
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest+ B8 [% W5 E1 u% E' @/ D0 s8 i" j
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
7 a5 U7 n' ~1 P+ U8 o6 e" L+ w; Yprices."6 C2 g# c1 I+ |
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at! O. l& M& a! v; I( S
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers. [, f, w9 _3 @ x4 r
. q" O. X0 [* q) v1 V PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ N- U- W# U, M
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
, t% P, T" b8 S$ pclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries" e$ p* r" E, [3 x7 ?
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop4 f3 B) q1 _! Y# c4 Y7 W
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
) H) L$ c6 n D$ o1 ]excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
- T& a. q3 g5 t6 A. X- ^related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the \' a$ E: I1 y
country.7 ^# j7 t1 V/ L; Q3 ?
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 W" u. F& x1 c) j
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the! r2 Q$ c- F5 Z- p
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
( { `" f% c! g% b8 ?. ?2 O. x5 ]+ Ieach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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" D3 Y1 h2 m% C } About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and% f+ {" b, F' r$ M. o" J
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide7 p3 z( t2 h, a3 k
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating+ ?; e# S' i8 C7 u. K
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more" L: |* s% G! |$ {# c4 z4 K8 X
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development) I* T( O! f0 [5 z. l I& t
disciplines.8 v' i4 w+ t' L, G3 |4 k% ^
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.2 d8 T- E+ D" n& I# z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District* i1 r# R4 Y5 ?1 a* a6 \
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
& [0 H: ]; q5 z# Inow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be/ O e! x! |; a
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
: ^' M4 v, r, S: T/ M2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake8 H4 ~5 { r6 r4 X
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,7 E- p. R, o; l) u
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please# i! U. K& j( j J
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
0 H% Z4 n2 P& i# T: [the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.3 ]) \% N$ p( V0 `4 I
$ W; D+ t; F9 ?# M
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
0 y( F) t+ n! D) G% ^' w(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
$ m- k" {; s+ L/ m8 G% w' C4 Dhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html G$ Q( S) E4 E* K
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