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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat : G& I( @$ `5 j' X4 j3 [
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
% g- _& _# a9 {6 J+ @& h' h1 {commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern; I9 i1 T+ t3 ?
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 l' X! Q% h) G0 o, u0 k1 KTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)/ y3 Y: B: C4 m- G3 Z- |. E
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more9 i/ R# _1 v! z1 E9 J
upbeat.4 `' a; M0 r) l7 s# n; C( r
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded9 j' A8 H& w# r8 b. a* \ ?
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" |2 l+ g8 E- K( S- Winterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
4 z, R) i5 F, ^+ @: y9 h) O" Restate experts, including investors, developers, property company* }- U5 {" ]* e' ?* n# _7 o2 k1 x( W
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.% l% D2 p3 a' Z r
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world7 Z0 a: E- U4 m) c8 V7 n: E
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
0 _# D7 o+ z' J" T( x7 F# } According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
5 c5 i1 o9 e0 i! j! }, NReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
4 v0 H N& V) N( j& z5 Yenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to1 r: D2 l2 [* {7 P) l# ~- A
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
. a7 V" B* o) o/ a2 Q) Chighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."# L9 |( p) d* U& L: T* Z( f
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
: Y3 p5 {5 Z7 _$ e: C. l2 o! Eborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game* q2 ~% v c9 h$ t" I4 P
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey8 L1 ?) h6 c% l. t) S& W4 }) I
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US# r" l9 U5 B& E% {; T ?0 _
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be3 Y D) ^$ \$ L7 c3 b' O: L
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
3 @2 K6 I, {. V The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian0 f3 L4 Z) o- V& l# X4 @
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
7 V7 g0 Q; x9 e( ecommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, s7 L! I5 k6 \( [, y% m
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
1 c$ H6 y+ k& M3 uespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
# {, B3 E4 d2 Y5 X. {3 t# V$ |6 ?development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
a5 w3 ]7 y/ ]& c2 c* i7 y* Oresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
8 ]! m$ O4 |1 f" K0 p8 Wtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 F; q" ^. v+ q7 B4 w- k2 N
single-family housing looks overpriced.: e" U3 D: P% }" m- y9 e
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
0 X& h3 y1 J$ K. Itenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
, o' v* n+ C4 e7 O% [6 Jmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
; O2 C* ^) r$ m, q+ S/ X( Uhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting5 y. z, G4 w; T( H; Z0 H, Y) A1 }
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good," ~8 m0 ~; F; |) F* b. B" R( K
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
6 r; r6 D$ n# V. |8 z7 A% o2 z3 Papartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary' F' R" T( G& x; {- ^$ t2 I
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing- {+ K! y1 I+ Z1 m% ~5 n0 {1 _
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into3 {1 U4 x" d7 J) ~% d' f3 K" _
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development' ?9 C! _6 t+ ?- v+ _9 `* R8 t
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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: ?6 h$ A8 f5 O2 A, N+ Y: _' X Canadian Markets to Watch) X: I6 v% f+ j. z5 `" ?
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
' F/ T0 A5 W6 C3 M# z7 vcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
! L- X( C/ p0 I" G, f1 A% c: oneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back" H: D3 r# g! o) r- U ~
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
) P4 D8 k W# F: \+ K& qdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
8 B, @6 X, W4 `- Y8 N& qprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
. B4 f. `" K7 J5 c: Owest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
& K$ ~& b0 A) C+ @. c1 r: pprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain: k# ^: X. j6 \
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
* c" E( q9 x9 E+ p5 M* ^% J" jToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
# M$ D/ N- P3 o& q# x' Dratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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+ W' r# ~4 r r& q& C K {7 ^ Calgary/Edmonton
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1 Q7 k7 z" G1 S0 c Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one4 M4 r# H! m e& r! E
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
( U, ~: y0 i6 w9 Q- W5 J4 |buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,8 X* `2 D7 _; z1 c1 f, j
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.$ B* D1 s5 G' I8 S" i$ [
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 [8 {( R: z8 sHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the& x' z) H) R2 C4 ^
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
8 w& V3 k3 z u/ W( s" z; V6 f. ustrong, this market will continue to do well.* n) x1 R5 {7 n/ U9 n" M! b, u
( q5 H/ j# M: U( N! P' Q, F7 |5 n
Vancouver/ z8 {! ^- f7 S; F
+ }7 I& D3 P: a& }# l* c$ V; D Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is9 B# Q" B, g! c6 d& d9 y
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 E/ L3 h2 s3 h- ]$ ?, E' M+ vreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the' M* K" T( V% N+ X+ {
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a& D8 T& t4 _1 a
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
/ f6 P0 S0 G1 W! [( Krecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
$ I* X6 n! S4 n" ufor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
0 a3 P3 O2 L9 cfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very s" P* ?- I$ L8 V( p% Y# p
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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9 h0 ]' Y1 S0 j5 E" @5 I Toronto4 @" B- r2 o, K" Y& v
) E1 q c2 j7 Y6 p2 j Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
( h$ D% Z% f$ X4 \$ imanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
5 p+ J2 ^1 s2 K1 {$ c) ^relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing( q! U. A+ s& C1 c8 a! Y" w
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.7 |% x- I, ^7 [8 _! n6 l
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square7 v& M5 {+ e) Q0 O
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
1 V, b8 J1 t e# D" b7 g; jApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.* ~1 T5 ]6 _( p$ h9 W. c
- r6 W; ^+ B: f" v Montreal: e$ ?: S# O% R2 V
. y7 `, O$ j0 R, q3 E- e+ ]; X Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. D0 T1 L2 }7 q( G
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
9 ?' ?0 |8 T6 w- p$ wshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in6 @4 ]4 q6 A* w# D; z
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate! u& Y$ C i% V( w0 ?- g
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors- O' K+ f+ i- D0 C5 t3 z4 i4 C
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
' v0 h8 S, O k0 N! P" finclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy. [ N* j+ M: N; D h" {
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos# `( J& g) C$ M. x* E
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
- m+ o3 s- x5 s8 T( s. C# ooverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current) o6 O& w8 u* s1 b
prices."
& W( s1 \( _# Z* B. T& N A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at, G/ a7 D9 P- J4 G* K
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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9 m* r. C0 U" k/ o About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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1 ~4 j/ v; A1 y( o PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
" m1 z( z1 V+ Z4 d1 G: E3 qtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its3 R8 `" s) G0 Q
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries7 w) {: u+ ]/ ?7 w& v! ?& P
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
2 m" p. v9 T1 Gfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
% ?& O( H" k8 j5 zexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its; m1 G0 h4 T9 ]! S6 j6 ], G0 E
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
4 F a7 R" o9 \4 ?, _- Rcountry.
" e, s, K( b" r8 c "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
! K9 C1 y5 b7 ~2 ^- Q5 ^limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
0 s5 B/ M! X `3 SPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,2 L$ X- w# y% n
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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: h8 s: J( s( y5 y$ `4 ~; f7 H About the Urban Land Institute( l0 @5 E" m! e1 _
: n0 t' o; _! [' o0 R# F# F( H The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and1 R9 M3 h! l- P4 k" I# E/ r% G2 A
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide/ m" c5 G: C+ v7 h( m
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating2 }& \5 |; S9 `, A2 N
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more% J j% B& K+ ^3 f4 y
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
4 b* n" Z$ h; ldisciplines." ^' v3 \/ f K; `7 [; `: i) E3 s
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.0 \+ n) b; ?, T0 {0 ~5 m+ n
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
' [0 @% N! Z! O) [8 f; r2 }. TCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is: \4 J8 n8 i1 _/ G; f/ a( W& _
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be- o+ G: M7 B: @% h
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
& i; I Z6 B! J- S3 k2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake2 S# {+ P S5 {0 _, A
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
+ r m* Q. k6 ]' l8 I. PPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
& m# W7 i9 r& }0 W6 b3 fcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on% Z+ Y; R0 g5 U/ u, p3 \
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,5 F6 n; q6 O- z5 W
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
1 T1 h. j' L$ H- v) G: Qhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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