Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
1 y7 d7 {5 u, c/ D3 ^MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
; U  k* c9 t! r. N$ \. WIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
  I/ S: V6 |  ]9 j4 q. A
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
1 |" n, Q( P! B% I
6 E% M+ w/ u8 I9 W, V2 i8 T. XSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
# K0 h6 v' T# K! m6 e% M/ [& s
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
2 |" |5 L9 A6 e' c+ A3 G/ q
Jul 2007
3 h. |9 @/ D" a NA
2328
9 ^0 W- f8 p6 p, n9 q 717
/ v2 E1 ~& h+ D# ] 442,752
( t. A" O7 H1 r) E6 ^ 410,000
320
* `* E) i+ O: c9 a# ?1 [5 q4 y 28
31%
) u- L& e2 T" A0 B
, b/ _- u8 M) y& |: ^+ NJun 2007
2 M9 z2 B- Z# C1 e. u0 D NA
2661
1011
442,817
8 e( O/ A2 ~6 N. [+ X 409,000
328
! z$ ?3 q. d- w 22
38%

. k/ E0 n8 f* m% GMay 2007
NA
1 `+ q" y1 F; A; J$ L 2288
0 \8 ~; ?) H8 y* \6 j 1261
451,216
415,000
322
% ]# Q* E: w' l5 ] 19
- k( `2 o! @. L" ? 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' g, Z/ h" ~  ?: s7 w# H存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

$ I4 }5 V( K6 }( L' D' C8 h1 C
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
9 D* Z7 z' _% S  y; b- v2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
# n+ R$ L7 P* @) A. G$ Y存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
# q& s; d5 @4 r% R& s鉴定完毕！

  f4 y! q  p2 i8 d, \& F' H呵呵，太不专业了吧。
$ ?6 ~' W! w+ M
1 |4 [! H; y7 k# {新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

* F# ?4 _# J- w( Q就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

7 x/ y) H/ Y0 I, @8 o6 B+ N这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
0 `! _% ]5 E: L% C& lDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

, h6 K. }& B% [6 ?2 V& t
. t- B' r& w9 x  p2 v

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
+ X. F* S! S: W! A; a' @' n9 J4 jDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
) ^  T$ e" E  m. a" A) \8 L/ NHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

6 h6 g3 `+ @1 [+ M4 Y9 j* O1 o
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
% \6 e) a( N7 {" }Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

& B! T9 u$ Q, V  w6 U7 }
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

& S' [/ h% x, h* u; X下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
1 s* @6 d. f$ z. {' r! |
' w$ {+ G* T& O0 I  P
$ O8 ]& u+ C/ E' @. m' H$ y0 `$ N
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。