Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
: U( F' G6 [# h2 w+ Y- b. LMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' t4 r. d! x/ q) i# A5 M+ y( C( P+ pIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

9 P& M1 t: t6 IDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

; H+ P4 h  G1 Y, lOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
. `% Q+ n) ^  Q8 d/ e7 I2 t
1 e8 a. X# v. e1 g+ |Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
, Y* K5 v2 o# e" s
Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
410,000
' ?* p7 W: s# O7 n* C! J 320
28
31%
, R7 W: N  R  f% R( q( I! h- e
: r8 T1 p$ ^4 z7 g7 MJun 2007
. C9 F3 ^+ L6 P$ S& e5 U9 t NA
+ g  t' u9 J; G- E) n 2661
1011
" `' Z( J' a7 C6 i+ v$ ^' l" y 442,817
409,000
328
22
, Q% f2 V4 x8 e* F) r 38%
* a* @, Y3 u) q2 l
/ u- Y: g" F" u- N+ QMay 2007
NA
5 E/ Z' Y& Q& x2 f: c( f 2288
) u& Y0 ^! h# Z. t6 X) b. d3 L- q 1261
, Z/ s3 Q7 D# J: `4 ?& x 451,216
415,000
% e) d* h* s# Y- E; j* X- Q5 S 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
- c7 P6 D5 `6 Z8 @) B5 d/ G; \这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
/ k4 z7 A) v3 {% X: `' E存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
" t& s* c& D& O8 V$ P; X, w; @7 z3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
7 U: }$ ?( ?# c5 R9 ?存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 n! A, O* W  ~2 q* R9 I6 N& b2 A鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
) L9 R8 A& q6 t
/ L, ~, G" N: Z2 a新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
5 P7 s. Z) I6 y# E
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
( y3 k4 B) i) @8 `# s
; I  y. P" n( t9 m这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

7 {. r3 i. K7 l7 Q0 v9 C

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
! J2 p6 ~+ K; K3 lDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
' v& f0 k* t7 BThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
6 I: G" X) U& s* SIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
2 T# V% M! `  j( H. DHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

9 _4 |* |3 q9 R
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
( m4 [# G/ T5 k2 @8 vEdmonton Single Family Home
* |3 x% T7 F- F) d; s2 T* A( N( }MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
3 Q- E6 S# F% ^$ ?. V# _* A" y0 ]Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
& Q8 m" G+ B8 E/ R1 R* V5 S* ^
  K0 ]6 u+ |' f0 n* R# c8 J( q
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

1 \3 i, `/ e: w- A! ?% v

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
* w2 G/ f  M# b$ s3 t1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
! ]" ?2 K: I4 r3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

& D9 q% E9 h3 b( w/ z0 z下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
! \& T, X' V  m1 B  d3 b- I


& @* u( u2 T3 e7 H. |9 }只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。