Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
0 P* U& o! X' g2 z5 LMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
3 r3 K4 o; `- J+ }Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
4 E- _% E* y% r0 f- G  Q3 INote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

6 f: e8 k+ @7 ^2 c6 I7 a, oSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

7 A- G5 Z7 f7 X2 A: ]' Z2 u& ZAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
; a) m( d: r; X& F) p) k
Jul 2007
8 z$ }5 w/ h2 p4 _8 c4 e NA
2328
- @- o6 L6 h3 u! ^' C 717
442,752
; _$ U. X) H, Y; ?! ? 410,000
320
28
31%

$ d, d4 D; ]# E5 rJun 2007
NA
2661
1 S- J; c* U+ H- H" w 1011
) G; P/ z  d! O# U1 k# U- e 442,817
! b6 c+ S) P0 Z" b3 H9 q3 ^: n 409,000
328
  j. O  i; X9 N( W* O 22
$ a3 T" f4 D3 W' W 38%
0 j+ s' G; N+ w& W( E+ X( B
May 2007
- j) T5 Y# i$ r; @ NA
) I0 k( G% @4 C5 t+ I! G, Q& Z 2288
+ A9 Z. c9 D; t, J% u 1261
451,216
415,000
% z  l( V! w: a, f 322
19
& H9 e+ `" J0 ^% y5 { 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' m, o' r7 u* `. G+ b- P- ~鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
% L! k9 x6 \, _3 g! K0 A存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 s# O0 U4 T1 k; b鉴定完毕！

% W0 s, ]: ^- o1 p7 u
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
- D2 O( Y, n: m  k9 Z存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

3 i: q: E5 U+ f3 v新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
1 D5 ?0 @. u* F. a# L
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
# M4 t- Z4 a, n  O/ g0 z' e8 y
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

6 N& c/ ?6 p  p5 F# f% {5 p; j" {
& W8 E1 h1 C4 x- G+ l/ g

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
" n+ c" ^6 S* h8 ]6 P2 CHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
& M" ~/ W! T, i- S! Wgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
! `6 Z# s3 B2 K& M! V( YIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
  X& b  u# V3 s' t! vIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
8 H# V: P0 q' C# H- [How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

  t* q+ T6 K- m+ d
! u/ f! C, k- F) o8 W+ nI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
7 f* e. \$ C/ QMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

* h5 m' y# P* _# i4 w1 d% nQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

6 W0 _8 c9 {' ]7 P% v( Y( _  ]
: ]2 H  K+ }% w7 M; xI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

7 e/ G; n9 c  z) B0 g

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
$ R/ U# A4 s0 o. y4 _2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
# d0 o4 K4 ~: S5 _* b3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

: E. }; u9 M: y5 }  f: P

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。