Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
! e: W' j3 D% v  lMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
* P5 g# Q8 }+ T3 t& r7 Q8 w1 q
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
( o+ g# f1 l* f3 x! r
) B8 Q$ ]. w" n- t3 uOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

' p8 P# [2 R, R) j0 @Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
. s3 b0 C6 W' @% Q8 d
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
3 q9 X0 S* e: m  j0 k
Jul 2007
NA
2328
: _3 Z  N# i6 M 717
; I3 [% a3 j  n/ Y- S0 y 442,752
1 g% B9 M0 P- }8 G$ c7 ` 410,000
320
28
31%
" G8 s6 }, g0 z5 a' y5 h  L, F0 U
Jun 2007
; d1 F, y, o; O7 c; a NA
- l: f& N: t6 u5 f1 V, {8 }8 M; i 2661
1011
442,817
409,000
328
22
( U* X9 V% a0 B* Y$ R) T: S- y 38%
- o" }& A/ B* v- U: D8 \  x  t
May 2007
NA
1 I) L. s- Z9 G( C, q 2288
* j2 b- S9 w' K3 _% Z6 L 1261
451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
  C5 f; r" O* f9 t1 B; s. ~1 D, K# h这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
6 I( M  e# U$ U# W; X  b( ?- G存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

. ~# p& W- }. O4 Q用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
8 n7 t! q5 L2 a3 B! {" C4 O- I' G3 Y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) T* u  P4 s' R7 j/ V鉴定完毕！

/ Q& ?+ W9 _" K( t5 w5 O. o  g. G
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

0 A( U/ Z  b$ Q" s$ g; ~5 B就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

, X5 I2 A7 \" R# S- R这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
; J+ S" [$ t6 e  U5 j" \7 CDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

, @; @3 a7 M: H9 a$ ]/ v' Z# \

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
/ a4 L6 j! S# R6 K  cThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

; h, z' U3 c2 }: \
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
3 M, d4 }7 T9 B* h2 ~' q( }Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
& _( v) D. b& xNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
1 ^$ L( n+ L( R& ~+ K+ c

) H3 Q. [! t4 [" ~$ z8 lI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
* s# n5 v* S( [8 \' t1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



& [9 L, {/ D* o; e6 D/ S) \7 X只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。