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0 c* `# G4 U* A% k: k$ } Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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5 w- s+ X/ B+ y) U6 u+ ^: u In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.% @0 f! d8 x$ I) C
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
0 e8 G0 ?% C9 b0 Q4 s9 } lBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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# B+ }2 M5 ^8 O4 f! R, {3 oMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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6 U* e1 R/ v0 S5 d8 }7 n( Q- tBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. & o/ D1 b8 c0 w2 ?
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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$ F7 L8 Z2 l0 @3 o `; ~"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 6 y& c7 l" c6 j( S6 d. \
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % i) n% @: ?$ [2 U8 L& j, q% z
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 8 U1 N6 w% A2 `- g; e
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. $ H% L9 a9 D$ A7 s$ S
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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; |0 N( u" m: C* }) \He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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1 a" M% M' F2 l4 C9 fOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ! w# A4 f, W7 J# e
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. " A5 i; k6 p4 ~9 j
" C# u$ L6 ]& u6 ^0 H- y$ y"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 0 V% X4 o8 r' ?% u7 u
5 X# v* }( |/ g8 U& v/ M+ |So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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* m1 h* F t# w: p1 X& Y! I0 B- jYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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# g! N0 z2 b( \* t5 ~3 l- U) \6 ["We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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" r l* v9 B+ \2 l: vLet the good times roll.
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" V% N; v4 w7 ~: n$ O" bPrevious story: Bottom Line
+ B8 e1 y# D1 n& J, u& Q. FNext story: Building permits hit record
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