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Thu, January 11, 2007: v3 L4 Q" l+ O5 V$ n
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007% v/ T0 A4 {: r
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN/ Z$ G5 k& W9 P6 ?3 x" j
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ; Z0 _( t& W* C; i n o
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. % \: Z) o1 l$ M2 v7 K( Z% ~
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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+ W1 g8 O, Y$ ]"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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& K/ B" j6 l( p' }8 R/ U! L1 cShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ( Y- Z' Z! M' Y
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. / ]7 c( K. W8 |) U) E5 L) d6 k4 I
0 y( H' s# U0 E+ VCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. , b* ~6 F+ v7 N3 ~6 J
. x- l; ?4 X4 Q5 S"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 4 O# h( E) F2 E
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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4 L* D" h! b) X& {0 b"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. / ]' b( \. l7 d! N& y1 A; @
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5 r! N. v6 O% r, i4 }( B! F+ PHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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9 E4 g+ @+ O( P5 {9 ]- uExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ) Q7 a% K; ]# C; b1 P3 O
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# A5 q, w% ?4 s: S9 b6 }His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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8 ~9 s `, O, y/ Y: D"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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' J$ z, [' m* Z" r$ L- j" CSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 7 ~5 D. C8 H+ L
( }' `& C# z/ s( Y3 rYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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5 P( p. X9 L9 u& {# i% {"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. % [. m: M4 \1 b5 c) n( w' }# Q6 s, _
+ J* h2 o& X# \9 V' L% YLet the good times roll. . T; Z9 U1 s% C; S' v4 j
4 f- [9 z' }) R9 }9 cPrevious story: Bottom Line6 H7 H- B; Z: h) ^* _( ~
Next story: Building permits hit record
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