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Thu, January 11, 2007; z0 n5 J; I; I# d/ m5 f
$ V% V6 a0 Q0 NPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
7 L4 Q1 F3 Y6 ^By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN) @7 I7 _% r- M7 d+ Z( {+ V
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* ~( q# X( x! Z6 @They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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( }7 [- _8 `/ ]2 s+ v6 i7 Q5 uMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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8 e) z( | |: S# QBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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. m3 b V- p' O* V( e) ODon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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6 e9 }* {4 r$ jShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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3 K9 X& t/ f/ v/ [9 x" z5 c"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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4 K: ^8 o# Y0 }! m* v% }: [0 _"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ( x4 [* a0 e! M9 Z
. G6 m J& t, `4 q% f9 f; k"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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- I# m7 L' f" z3 {"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 5 D6 H- ?$ y, H, P3 v" W
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 g4 w( j5 `# I A: P% O
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. & w) J: v/ f4 K# Y( R
* V. n& s8 ]0 ?2 m"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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1 R' n. D0 j, u8 e4 z* O" {Let the good times roll.
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