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/ B' R" p' u- \9 Q. E, X z9 U Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com5 u4 I- ~) \* x# Z: x" z. `
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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$ t5 o1 R J- j( ^4 `9 T* A' l2 w6 |Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007) v8 k/ G; T9 {( p% ~4 O
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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: [, ]$ L$ y* G" B2 _: R$ R {5 E/ FThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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3 V& j% m; J6 l* o6 i- M3 N8 |But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. & D# c7 g5 X- R y$ Z0 F
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. / E6 `- j" i& ]* @4 t# Y
* k4 k1 A# f g* w/ o'CONTINUED DEMAND' ; t7 I: i+ r, _
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 2 I' a' o$ ]/ H* U( `4 d6 U
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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7 d2 p( h7 C8 k, l, P* t"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. - h& c3 P# e4 s+ h: l$ y
* W3 w. F) r" F0 h! [Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ! b" c: A% a& ]* W
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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* g! F q, Y7 z( Y% n! eStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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" f7 m* l9 { g. C2 p* P"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. : N' ~+ c/ F( L0 a- v8 z% r
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ) T$ i, K* E* O3 g- F; b/ t8 Y/ A
, W b1 O4 n+ |* r% o2 X"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. . B/ ]$ L% V% y K" ~) X
3 k& H7 L7 K3 \NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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: N, v, D; i) a1 }& Y5 K! p7 }4 L# cHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." , s2 ~; a8 @0 ]5 g& q
' i& d% T# s0 R# O* bExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 3 g# Z8 T. a) V
+ i1 Y l! z1 @6 wHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 0 p1 X! F9 j! [% i0 D6 g
+ c: I p% S& |"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 1 F4 |+ C% A K3 `2 u' h# U
$ B" @4 {1 f$ V; [" g1 WSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 6 w% {* r7 ^6 B, K) L
! |" A3 D; k d( b* oYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 4 h4 I3 I% B* q5 q# K* ?
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : @1 J* q- M! L1 `8 Q8 k$ b
: d" g( X' `+ p0 v% hLet the good times roll.
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' n7 H- q* S! ], pPrevious story: Bottom Line
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