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( i# y B- p9 V- AThu, January 11, 20078 S: D5 n( ^% @; A
6 L/ Q0 V! p1 CPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
8 d8 r K; \1 k* U! R0 a2 k$ ?By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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7 E: }+ p8 P! _$ rThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. $ x2 B5 H+ x3 A, E g0 _6 |
5 f# V& b$ R ~) eMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 7 O5 f$ a( _; S9 e2 y
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ' `# b* j$ w5 F2 b6 R6 K) D( {8 E
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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/ S) g1 ?% m5 W"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 9 i+ Y& T w. w# z: o7 B
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 4 l/ ^. b/ N1 g4 W1 t2 h8 H
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 5 L i% [% M; y( P2 [
, R: y9 I; P6 A- `1 S"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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9 v0 p0 o( X/ R* Q& D1 \Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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% e3 K* H8 K/ T4 z. W9 @. M' b"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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- F) a b3 F$ s" k7 T% x7 S"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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: ] r9 w7 C$ l, ~"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. . d& t/ |) y) Y4 @ g
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT : W! r: O: D( {7 a' S/ j0 v
# D/ s! I" w' I. A5 ZHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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; |% I) s( T4 Y& w4 [Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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9 W" k' M" }( gOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. * k3 p0 f0 T6 B" h, L
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 8 Z; j0 \" U, {0 W' w8 n- T! s' _6 ^
4 Z! b* V- @* k+ y"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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: n9 L$ H, `& r# J5 y; JYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. 2 z1 w( M5 J) b8 R
# Q! d. k$ x% }Previous story: Bottom Line
) H2 T( C# k" c2 B" xNext story: Building permits hit record
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