 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
% j8 V* L# E' x) q: I: r( d
) ~+ i1 j$ l# [# zRepublish Reprint9 H5 ~( F2 }& U) l$ D% }
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET5 y- F; c" T: [ {
More from Gordon Isfeld
6 Q( q7 j' J) E6 H& W& t, YLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
: }' ]9 e- [' i: m" d8 K/ d: ZBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
$ `: J A$ q2 r' X8 r Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More. n: i9 F/ l1 X; ^1 k* [) H& @
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
! U/ R' e* q- t. V6 Q3 g+ k, g5 Z, j4 q1 X- I) N$ Z1 }) S
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.& X+ R% U$ N9 g5 E ~4 x
k% S% o: B# y( O" fIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”, [) h; t7 B0 |7 a6 G) T* Q9 D- F B
6 R0 n6 i1 s# R6 d. o0 ]Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
& \, [) a# q% D9 D. I
& ? K& T! i- Y! A# m% q% g“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.: ~1 l _0 ~2 n+ [2 D# r' i6 k$ _, M
6 I0 l+ U7 F5 C' C- @2 ~; f5 B
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
0 A& K, s, m+ K" | L5 K6 n- D. b0 Y6 F
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
& s* K+ n" @( z8 W5 r, a) @' ^% F
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
) }' T( @/ U6 s0 T4 o
8 e% h& Q1 O0 F: @, @7 F: LRelated1 g; I0 l( q% O" ^ U
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
- h8 k$ E$ B3 q5 G2 w5 n+ B+ FCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’% C, C! [* x- \+ ~9 i O
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over- t' N3 }7 q$ C% j' p: j
Advertisement
1 S4 ]* J5 I g. |2 T' c- Q
9 ~5 s S& S! F3 \2 n
% |& d1 R+ X6 P# G1 d; sThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.) ]' I) ?: ~6 m: @
# Y+ ~) J% F2 }7 z% F- @
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
5 [& C* h( w% }4 J) z E
" @$ Y8 r0 W+ |) H; L6 w$ z6 n- p; y+ xFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
$ e! e- J2 {% D- \0 d
! k/ }" B1 }. Q0 r' O* H) e! rCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
' y8 P" n: ~, B5 d+ i0 @3 i& b: X" C) W7 J( P; ?# `2 U& X
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.3 }2 p* ~' T8 E' a/ F8 p1 v3 z. m) d
! x; _5 n" m% t0 {4 \6 S ], DThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
2 m$ B) g9 ~% d& r" [$ v% w# k6 F/ J* @4 d& T$ z- I8 r1 v
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.5 D4 f# b7 ?/ }* P$ M0 Y
3 {% q' X4 H; Y0 E' u
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
2 u0 N p) _" m. T( b* O5 |$ c7 R6 ~7 c+ @
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
0 L) D" f1 M1 j, N3 M. V
' s3 T+ B) Y R B5 G$ [Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
1 S8 S: q% F6 h8 @; S2 T
. J! E) [$ P( C1 N c“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
