 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
* x" X0 [, G) _( j' w
( N1 g( U4 t+ e! F/ X' L# h( }Republish Reprint( ^: k! o$ w+ F' ]
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
: O8 U9 O9 g. H1 E9 x0 T/ ]More from Gordon Isfeld( y# K5 i- X) }" l0 T
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
$ L, Q& k5 L0 FBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.- w# m! f! C9 o' }$ d2 a
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
* n8 _6 f" v t$ u: e! o, Q+ Y$ s6 ~OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
3 p$ w. E. M& N. _0 J( S- J; u5 o) U# @( a' A7 @* J: j+ R
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.- k; o8 g/ w* R
- h- L7 F- k3 [' D5 i- r
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
/ L( C5 e6 v" m
% @ z! g/ t) O1 Y" wMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
2 X$ G( Y9 c9 N5 t' ^2 u e( b) t$ g
3 D( D0 g1 G/ j n8 P" C& b“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.2 D. l0 ~4 T/ m
; l' b* Y( p, k8 s" D1 b
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
! k# @1 n [( l* l0 ]* ]* W; O: } C
`* t y, v$ x7 K( k5 |However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.* }3 E. B5 m/ S9 k! ]
: b& l4 K/ | @! n0 V9 oIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.0 C$ ]* t( W( ?+ N7 J* `
h& x# u- n- P4 pRelated
0 N2 l: E8 t# r7 u d! WCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns$ G* P3 H( Y0 S
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
$ ]1 A D% b8 ]% jThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over# \" A3 C+ G; Z( N5 b
Advertisement
3 n* b+ a' o7 E5 L# b$ t% ~: ^8 |6 G7 T5 r$ G; Z4 e
$ U- b% x$ q# a* C" O* XThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
5 c i1 Z5 W9 e" {' b
( r) a/ ]( c4 K$ p“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
# G5 h0 b$ z2 s6 q$ _. V5 |
6 ]/ R5 `8 X, ~& b8 ]- ^* x L" nFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
$ [, Q1 M' \7 ]) u& M. H" o4 t# G9 w2 ?4 E# V. ]
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
9 C4 @0 Q+ W6 n1 x0 M1 P/ n9 G9 f( C' F* i
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
3 c% b n9 c4 m0 I; a% C" _* t9 I4 l, z" ~' e
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions., D% ]% G* u5 I- ]. ~7 g
, R% B: s5 ^, o( M. I% f
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
: z5 g1 [ Q( z. U* {1 J6 R
) f' _# W' `& L1 nThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.# e; N& r' N$ o d4 C
& ?* Q4 [! Z8 b Y& ~“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.& _6 L; z0 }" N& l
% t! a2 T# h. t2 y
Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
r$ p7 [! a- U6 p/ l& C1 N( ]4 y$ ~4 ]
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
