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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET+ Z: F" z& T* g4 Q5 D
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants./ D* X) |2 q# [5 O0 _
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.2 ?, J3 |- z/ A O, H
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, Q b y, f& H& I# `8 g3 iOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario., t7 N1 T' }; D) s# d' {2 a4 T
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.- e& c% ^1 X+ ?4 D5 W) G. f0 s
# H4 }: v/ U. JIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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9 v1 {( }. L- lMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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* T8 g- t. O+ C“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.& Y6 g" u+ j' g4 G( p, e9 g1 {& g
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.# z v9 X [7 ?- \4 w0 ?1 |
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.4 V% B$ [* F- I" f
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) q7 j1 W O D6 H6 P* pThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”( D' [2 w6 P6 x0 @: Y5 C
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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# }$ T4 b( ^) dCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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( ~7 e! }. b" Z' v9 N2 }7 LContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.9 |2 Z/ I2 C ?2 j. p
! o- n' i: e$ \% P8 {) {5 oThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level./ O0 E4 l7 m' ? q1 g+ ]. G
9 M+ u+ [# ?1 Z8 eThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.6 m6 D- J, A' o% p3 H
5 e0 A. o5 H }( r0 |“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.: A( Y/ T- t' [" u7 {& d
" I& c$ p, U5 B F9 ~* D“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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