 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
, [; h+ M# k) R/ \6 I8 v$ v
9 t- d5 I! J% b5 J4 ]* \- PRepublish Reprint
: T( u$ t. { {* X+ i9 N1 }0 AGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
' w7 W( e) k" d% A# C% YMore from Gordon Isfeld
, a9 G$ [& a/ o+ f8 [2 _; HLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants., \3 k" L; y( g
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants. X5 U1 |0 x$ Y. D9 {3 D
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
3 i* g0 ^& |- H. \: bOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
4 U- o9 u" @% L6 U$ }4 A+ e6 N( Z$ p6 i
+ r a5 Y V- S8 \, [" ?+ h' aThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.* n- Z V& a6 W B- O. `, M; X
! _# ~( e* [. a6 c) q' jIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
6 P7 y! A; [3 X) O
& o' j% M. s( y2 i' [! J1 bMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
- B6 Y( ~; v, m8 c1 R
% h$ P4 M) r! E“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.) h# e3 T5 z/ b7 S2 t" b
: p: j4 g; T1 [1 j+ |. t
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
* M! J" W6 X' ~' z. B$ ?. S" d; e7 \# s0 E
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.- @1 G) c' a. L+ J* C E
5 h o8 h% F& |6 L
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
4 W7 S4 C7 m6 Y5 u* L
( @! Y4 w9 N; R7 y! `3 zRelated/ y l0 [6 {% h- V' G8 v" v
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
. _& q. {+ m5 w0 U, ~; D$ hCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
" \) I' _& }2 W7 I' u9 k3 ~2 `7 r) KThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
- e7 C1 i9 l* j A8 \/ l9 QAdvertisement7 i/ o3 S& p- ]! i4 n P# x) N
+ r/ {# \" ?' r6 i. Z' h* X! d) [0 j8 v5 D: [) B, o3 J. P
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.' f/ K# C* B+ s2 P+ x
) ?4 \9 ]/ [2 y; @, F( y“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
9 X; \( d8 o( h5 t$ n1 {- A1 H
, R% ^; R( t( W1 m3 G# V/ W sFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
* u5 o/ ^% V, J9 h8 q/ h. N
. Q0 P0 ^. a/ S7 T9 p. }+ A; nCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
" G4 x9 w' h# k' c( w- w
2 ?* y5 j m2 j$ P: `$ eContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
6 T8 D/ E* X0 c; u/ n' F' y) s! B$ j+ k/ u# K0 e( y& h
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.6 R7 i# K6 Z* I/ D) L/ ?6 g+ c1 ~5 i" t
z* F, {3 \' H+ V3 y
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.5 k! f+ ]) @' j# D
) ^9 M! s0 |2 ]! q# {. {9 l" cThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.. F, V0 y3 R1 m2 d: q, E
! b: j6 u* A9 }( g7 y9 t" t2 a* ]“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.' t7 L& V$ O7 J, N! V: u
9 m# y- m5 C8 k s; g
Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
. V3 G. ], G e- t
3 D$ ]8 a+ N+ P0 B* d" p“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
