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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
1 a, W6 W) }+ [* w( }" L9 S5 n% c0 d, E0 v: Z5 K9 I. |$ I$ R
+ [6 V8 d) v0 v% U/ j
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very' I( j% o8 z' C; Z) g! X6 Y5 ]
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
( k; R6 I, e9 t% A( q1 Dwill be going.
5 x- c7 @+ y( x  J; n  V6 r; i# }# e* @! P, u& ~& q
It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
4 q7 x' M- l) C7 L/ z
; r( H% a, ~9 ]6 cThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by# ]! e; L1 d7 I0 V# v9 b/ ?3 L' `
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
9 k7 P+ ^6 P% L# I3 y8 Qindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. ( [* d. j$ _6 }7 R0 r( s
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property" ]/ B& \$ x4 H/ H: O# i$ T
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by$ O. o  v/ V. K
how much.. d" e! h  h) B" k! A6 y

6 O4 P/ E# s/ N0 _3 ~/ xFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,1 q' K8 [% W( s" l* S
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
% F0 L9 K% t0 d1 o# Z1 E8 s' S% ostrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest( k% j5 ~- n4 j0 c( s4 j
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -' Q* {$ B8 J2 ?, m% X# i' ~1 C
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best! A, y7 m$ |  k
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact
. @& _& d5 E* X) h0 @6 q7 Gon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.8 w7 T( i/ p. Q( i

. ^6 i; }! A1 d, i' \- gTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the0 \+ ~: }- X3 |1 ~
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into1 F( x1 X* F9 I8 {. g) A0 @
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
  k$ ?% o8 f- Z4 O( vsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). 0 j9 x  @; R3 p
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these6 }6 k7 r( g* e* J  K
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
, k- ~4 q8 A3 f# M& Qmonths.  : ^3 B9 r5 V4 d1 d2 k  L9 ?& a

$ J+ ^) w5 H1 h+ ?: j& p( \8 v  n, zComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting* f2 @' [/ W, I3 T- c( S3 B/ B! g
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying# ~8 _" h, z# }) ?8 d
fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
: U4 p3 ^% q; d% xthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait+ `0 u: H& P  _, h( u! f
until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
3 c& Z6 h% b8 B/ r) Q6 V  E5 Cbecause they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.4 `  `( f5 v) @+ S6 F, X0 ~

8 w# A( ?  X- i  G' w6 tBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
3 J  a" G' \6 Z% |2005 to June 2006), also great news.+ `9 w( l% d, r% {( a

! I% p6 |5 M- h, q/ XBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
, P* L8 U. O2 s" s! J( r2006 New Housing Price Index for:
7 `0 G1 _' I: p  `2 ]
- u1 x+ ~+ ~1 m+ q( sVancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
2 I3 K' t: U( M( ESaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
; {5 i- s! }8 C, xLondon . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%% t4 c3 a4 F$ M6 L" Y
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%0 Y* v! P7 w. ^: _( D7 J& {
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
3 f; V$ v2 Q' i6 b) F2 @! Q: s5 qToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
- ]* A" {- }5 A6 p! R7 QOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%' c1 \: g5 ^, h& W( u$ s0 [
5 R- N3 o7 P' S# _+ h: q( V
Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing2 c( F: i6 V" a
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!5 A, d3 Q9 M! S: J: ], ^

2 s, T4 v, Z, t' Z; cAs the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
9 D9 u  L0 r/ T/ _; ]' R& }; F( mbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
% t4 u; n9 `. i5 E0 donly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are6 `1 g" [7 J3 l* \, i2 G# z3 O
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
/ S! D7 ?, S" ~: I4 a+ y, B2 Zdrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country./ y, x) `. [3 ^' g
7 ~9 e4 T  ]  p7 \! \
Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
0 L. e. u( X0 F# c. @7 \fundamentals:
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' p2 z; V- R& [' O1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
/ @" p7 e  k' O- C6 C$ q, Z% rCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
% j( v( t% }0 x  S+ V9 `) A- Z5 qfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and$ F, R4 N* s2 i, M. h0 q3 p& _
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.& R8 ]$ b' f; y) f- f; i$ ~$ e& W
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
, V" u# p& E3 O. t- r. ?4 mworld.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
4 g, W8 O1 |. D! ]+ Gthe US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
; {. T3 A% ]' V1 V+ n& i5 Othat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
# \5 u, n9 w$ L* ]
1 x0 |! }' @$ E  m3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment" _2 a, k, ~' D) C  V
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in' z1 O- N5 ^' }0 ^4 ?
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
! J3 N3 k/ ]! a- yDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
) {0 n6 i8 i5 qanywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
" y/ g- b+ C0 E& V* y; \1 ^proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the$ J5 E: o+ ?  n( _4 ?! g
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
0 Q! A8 x  R, _  J8 ~# z6 W5 w) h& Xbeat it for long term investment.
+ a# j; ]  _0 Z. [( t" H9 L4 P
' x, M6 V5 ~. G/ q1 P- d- l9 g4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely' v1 E/ Y4 d' g7 m
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job% K+ t7 e. g( b$ q3 f" F  e
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)  k& ?" p7 x; p5 E
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
! B+ J2 u7 Q: _& P+ r6 ZJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... 1 w- V( F3 o1 R: u- i( m

9 ^7 m) ]' k! A, R5 D  o4 HStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
- u# j9 e0 Y$ H! G0 mfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the( y, b7 ~* |. r/ @  x8 W/ k* N  O
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
5 j; P- g4 p5 W; \! I/ Y1 L/ Uthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
( W, ^* t3 h% [repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
. b- O5 Q6 x6 C6 e6 m( Kits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
& o# d6 I0 }* B) P4 c* vits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
* j# a( j4 K7 O5 ?+ G$ nof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in. [% I5 t" T* @( n
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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4 M$ z1 E' n. K) S% EIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong0 ?* _: k+ ~& b- T
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
3 e. ]/ F# ~4 Y& e. B* D1 O6 C'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
! {- [* a, Z7 t  B1 Jyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
1 M/ n( X1 o) z" Y; jopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the8 n) n- [! v# p! i
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
& y% p( a/ g% e" `- q/ {* t8 d2 ]and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
4 s4 W$ {! a+ J9 y
  O( x& q! n: e( q ' D; S+ U$ z0 ^/ J" Y( E. P2 g: e4 `
Capital Gains Comparison.
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- s7 z7 G) ]2 ~KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial3 N0 i+ f* d  j1 k. s# R
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see
6 B" U$ T2 C* m: [/ G; P9 }how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:
: [- x" ^2 _; t  P* i# |/ y' U7 R; @. U* R! P9 ]
BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
, V7 G: E; s# O5 c: y6 O, e! X! @7 _AB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
& ^+ J$ K" a( D# n  [. O( _SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
; _  c6 d: P* d/ OMB . . . . . . . .  23.2%! p) Z6 v! B; |7 X- v6 z
ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
8 ^  [2 q; G7 ~QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%) t* l  I8 k; l: a/ a# h' A  ]
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
. h/ s1 j, n9 S3 Q( }/ H+ }NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%$ M" m! H; Z& s# G) X+ B
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
/ U8 p7 i1 n( T% k! z4 _% u' QNF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
& B; W& e  z" e3 w* e  t! n( ?) h8 s6 `9 S2 V2 W0 R& w( l  y$ q
Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
& @0 }5 ^- u( ^) k7 D. V5 N/ `economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
% ]( n" l! D2 [their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
) o: z/ h" j4 @; O8 L; @& l1 I' J, Y! a5 {% _, y

, i9 t( |2 I3 t' X' O9 J: N* * * * * *% C' L2 [% O4 x
. p$ K" S, p$ q* M4 s7 y: q/ M
Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the. R* Z3 \: z; Y, V4 a
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
3 d4 [, t0 o( Y5 [2 P" t0 E4 |8 @course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
" G' g6 |) _4 x4 h5 P8 U3 X% w2 a  {events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion* F  }! N  \- v8 d" n
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
$ c, g8 g0 h/ l/ W6 [3 `
( @3 ]  I5 n1 u/ f1 yFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
% b& ]& a/ [; i- ?3 A6 D7 Nresults in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表( F4 y8 c, M; }; _8 z
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...' E9 E$ j: V$ d. R8 W+ j3 v
! r$ K! J; {; G, V1 Z

* [9 _5 D, \* zThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
  L6 A0 z" f5 L4 J9 u/ Ginteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it" Q3 s0 |! W( W$ w
will be  ...
$ V$ B$ d) i3 C" X* X  Y- F7 m

2 A- a0 `6 Y9 I谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good. . M7 E. x' Y% j

$ O+ R9 ^& R8 Y0 _http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=491 {9 Y+ W; A/ K
. c0 N7 t& U) I) I: Z7 P0 [5 d3 E9 J
You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.5 G4 p9 J2 ?" c& Q; X

, [+ T5 Y$ O; l; I) Thttp://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(86) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。! C3 h! K" W- Y. q- \' k1 G" d# {/ e* {
& Q* y- J9 i; ^- y. k( u* O/ _
***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****1 S) p! U. p; T. c  S# A
5 }1 U. p9 y1 ^- f7 t5 P$ n
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
2 \( R3 v+ c" m2 @7 jNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...: y4 ?# M! }: v" c
2 k, a* c! |6 V3 E/ s8 c7 `+ x
" y( e8 a, s0 {7 Y
With close to 3,000 net new people into3 |) ?8 Q; G4 L' N- G
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we. I# ~, H! f" K" f6 W
saw the New Housing Price Index ...

6 P* H$ y$ e0 z0 {& c3 H: T1 W[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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