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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...) {, C* P s4 ~
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, m6 z3 n& o( {( S% bThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very7 Z/ t; F' C( ?1 Q
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
* H; U" f8 G9 B( B$ ^2 D. Lwill be going.0 q9 Q a1 H m5 w* `- ?
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.% ]: u; k# G- I$ P2 c. s
6 e+ ~$ t# s) l2 k2 t4 e, mThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
8 ]! h" Z; `# O/ b/ o( psophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
* m2 U3 g% c" q6 B4 P! windicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. ! B( p3 K( {3 [
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
- j' `% u6 I' h9 G' I, C( lvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
' e9 N7 }! M' l8 zhow much.
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3 D0 X$ Y0 ]0 V. fFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
* t" w3 x1 C9 k8 y" r9 uOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very. }& k. K8 I i
strong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest) q" K% \0 O) B
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
) C" o* G2 ?/ b- x5 E) dJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
7 N" u7 H" a- k ^markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact/ L3 J+ L" a b% E
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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$ t* ]8 `" _ ETo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the% M% _' e4 S( P9 X' s" Y
market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into" d, S- _5 i5 R2 d2 Z8 I* U: j0 B
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
4 w j3 ~) X* b: jsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). 8 h- @ `* ] r* q) U3 d7 F
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
* A) z% ^1 u/ v/ Dincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
: K4 A @" P8 N* h# S7 `' Pmonths.
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
- l: B. v/ N2 M& q5 }6 Pcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
- U+ P. b2 u" b5 b: cfundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
: A" [6 ]& Z' kthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait) {/ |8 z& }/ u j/ m
until it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
! Y7 H. s* ^) h2 N/ Ubecause they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June( }* m: a. C; a$ {/ q
2005 to June 2006), also great news." a+ _" L8 T9 [7 l
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
4 ?, _- W. f) q; |# O! ^' j2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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Vancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%8 l( M" s; h, H$ v0 q
Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%# K7 Z9 j' \9 _7 o5 E- o( x/ e
London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%* g9 R) \! h, n m1 F
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%
4 T* U' x" z+ C1 I7 H4 V* A! G9 mSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%1 p& L& M* H; d- ?0 C# y) K
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
; t1 l9 v7 H/ P- ?; GOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
: Z' T" B& h+ l6 l6 R6 J: Xgives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
" e% [( {9 R! t7 J* c" u" }+ F: tbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not* Y$ I- _" [; _1 F+ f+ ^% R2 F
only across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are' \% a1 j7 l' x# |9 o
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
' o7 e/ A8 D' s4 Hdrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong7 F4 f3 m+ L; f
fundamentals:
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- G# ^7 y6 F# r; R: l+ G5 M1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
8 J& X1 _4 F9 Y, L" YCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth3 Q+ i1 Z( R- ?! z: z) ]+ q
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and9 |" t& D. Y [
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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' w* L: Q5 g6 p2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the4 V% p/ l: s0 t7 K+ |1 C" J
world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
4 n, `7 \+ i' D7 }! F0 q2 Othe US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
5 R* D: s* n! o, `that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. 0 u- g8 |8 `, Y- L! R
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment' o8 m1 p8 \+ v! M- h' k
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
! @) [! L' m! P/ ?( x- l2 \Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after- ]4 w% O7 d; r& N/ A, M& J( k8 C
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
" M1 t8 }% A2 I5 w6 t0 `3 k2 T" [anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again6 d. z. p/ U3 p& }+ v+ p
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the; V `7 v3 `# m# |% F
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can7 W& ]( x! G+ X3 f/ `8 d
beat it for long term investment.
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) h5 |% H7 b; m9 u9 U( \4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
% l6 }5 ]5 d3 @, z+ la sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job
; q X0 p( {7 L x" Ucreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
% h* Y& k- M; T' _& ~"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since7 I) l0 V5 E# {* T" l( x9 V
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... $ v" t$ M/ }' x; t4 l& E, L4 ` T9 D
2 k, r. i# n2 U2 \2 r m8 lStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the3 U8 |: R: [7 [4 Q
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the: Y% @- l) l# A7 g' z: r% g
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of$ A5 O+ X- w8 o
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
8 f. \" y8 b9 }$ B- Hrepeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
m# c) G: o9 X, g! `6 Q4 Pits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
* @" U6 q4 g( f9 `its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
; }9 o8 x) K& H; nof 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
) D1 b: Q8 h' }+ Cwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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/ A* d% R1 g9 n: k$ L2 aIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong5 R! i7 m ~! X" L$ [1 ^
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
: V1 E1 N0 O. j: T. Q" q'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
) o" ?- m @" }# v f R! Z! F, U% kyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the! U) z0 v0 U! l1 r
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the/ N: p0 c; l& w) G$ O
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
! M5 M+ x5 I3 q% a) {and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.5 x t" E1 x$ A* M; G4 D; F" m- a2 E
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Capital Gains Comparison.* f) N" a6 A0 ]
. }) Y3 z- F& r, j8 K2 s- \KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
4 D0 ^5 q$ f4 B( `9 i, \5 i( {Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see
8 g7 k+ U) J1 h2 Bhow these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%
6 _2 @$ h d. C; \AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%
5 h. n2 n2 A9 h& p. t7 `SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
9 R9 V# j. Q9 qMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
3 @9 G8 B6 a# ^6 h; FON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
' {3 G( { }- jQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
3 O. o9 t/ S5 v9 T5 ?; i% SNB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
1 U' C1 _& [+ @- ^ o3 K* cNS . . . . . . . . 24.1%: g8 K9 Y' E- u+ a9 u, ]
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%
! [6 Z4 O3 r3 V9 i7 {- c4 uNF . . . . . . . . 24.3%) x) c" y- H) M! x6 H, j
4 J* l- E4 ?( JLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
Q n5 c4 `7 a! z- i, reconomy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
; U% P/ v1 }1 b7 W4 [/ N' itheir profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.+ ]* y3 ~2 I6 i7 Y% {
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
) Q1 \+ h3 g) C( _% F1 M+ x! vopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of! Q& }: V9 }8 G
course, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'' X8 a0 g$ e0 b/ _/ W+ z7 R8 G% L
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
# `( i0 y8 W% nwhen you take action as a full REIN Member.
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
" Z( p* O2 b; `# [, X: c Xresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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