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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...0 D8 f4 V" H B, O% l u0 M. {& U
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' O- R- C% A8 h! KThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very; d; Q% X+ h. H+ E0 d9 L4 c5 M
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it* Y8 A3 o$ W* U2 v4 a: E
will be going.& t1 A2 L( Z N4 B6 A
$ E8 s8 b0 N: V* M9 WIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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* w# ?* `' l) O+ KThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
* V& R9 p* @5 zsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an7 m, s- d5 c7 t8 t4 p. q+ Q+ u
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
% Q7 |/ N8 n( fWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property/ z( A3 v" H1 |8 k3 @
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
4 F+ g0 q% n: N# R" N0 ehow much.
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
4 n1 b0 h) z3 b+ BOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very B) Q* ^! e3 p0 D8 J. U/ ^4 t
strong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest. ~3 _& j0 T' D* P3 O0 b
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
" A* ^" V# ~3 FJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
0 x2 m+ d/ c E' h3 q/ dmarkets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
8 O# E* L( e, l. ^- E* d: b5 |! oon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.5 N' p& b9 O" b X. _
9 J* d) }$ A/ j3 f6 B. rTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
, }! o+ [- _" s+ Hmarket continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
" k5 O9 G" i/ c7 R" pthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
, ^" _1 a9 A( A" R( z& Y- X, k+ Wsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). % _- d1 g# k+ d/ u# \
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
5 p2 G' Z6 L! `7 k' iincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
$ T7 ]7 e5 E9 Rmonths. 6 Q! z6 `4 S4 T: V! d @1 [
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting- g% C( E1 i2 p' P) }. N" Z
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
2 w: s2 }2 S3 rfundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
) h) ^& u2 G# R: K7 gthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
1 k$ u# l& f; e, Tuntil it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
2 | K2 Q3 b4 E8 Ybecause they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions. c. s% n3 b% y3 S, ^
# I5 c! b( ]- X v# U, x7 t: R7 L8 H0 \By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June8 @$ x: [1 K0 h; L$ F# Y" \
2005 to June 2006), also great news.2 [1 O7 y: k9 y; S$ j* Q( X
' [2 r) x/ ~! Y# N" r1 i4 aBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June3 G7 Z0 s% q; r8 h! D- F5 M
2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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9 f1 p1 a! J9 ]) Y2 i3 A% q$ LVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%9 e0 d! v( G2 c; z' a' k6 v! P! M
Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%
. k \1 f' _7 ^London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%
3 V' B2 t% g$ y; A. gHamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%" p; b2 \2 R$ v8 x
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
" {9 q/ y: {3 r6 `$ z5 Y+ JToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.22 O6 b) M! R# }
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1% j6 a- o! m, \$ j" _
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
9 }; \3 N4 K& ~4 e1 c' cgives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!0 M" D8 ^4 x) ~1 B6 I* \: x
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to- y" t6 R% R% ^. r- D7 V2 ~
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
' T5 q1 r4 U w( ~* `# Y. m! nonly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are n9 G0 f' J6 W- @- N, }
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
& h: Q) m1 h, T, gdrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.5 g2 Y6 Z4 o- V: S; r: n. [ h
5 t4 j9 Z& g4 y4 UHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
& d f7 r6 H' ]8 K( A' e) Z( vfundamentals:1 P- p, C b8 l4 i7 U. u. F
7 z8 [" A" D2 u" l2 g1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in$ J6 ] z4 P0 `
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth
0 N, X, s# G' w' r1 y4 ?9 I! a: }for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
d2 e' m2 p7 S* Othis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the. u A/ a+ K$ x' ]: d
world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,; L2 N' C$ }1 V& R+ |
the US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
/ W2 B. J8 Z6 K& z5 pthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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: Q# U, a4 O7 n6 g9 _. v H3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
- |( N" k5 w- Ratmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in& N, w+ i% w* u. Z
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after3 {2 Q$ ?- e3 j% g# l
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
$ j8 G! M3 _" m- D( oanywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again; d h' `/ D# R
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
8 ]) w0 _ I3 `) K; o" fpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can" i- k6 e! p: a1 [* v6 [ I$ J! e, a
beat it for long term investment.1 T) p. {: D1 s8 G/ i: f
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4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely. @8 K0 K! ]5 }' O- ^
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job/ Z2 y) M' ?3 I3 {% p
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)2 @3 |" }0 V$ r0 ` O+ V3 p
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since6 m! ] U: [2 o7 X) C
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the5 a" R! J: p. u4 Q1 L; O
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the
) v; u) N5 H( |economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of2 Z* p0 T, C/ i7 p3 o1 r/ ?+ u$ }( ?
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
; K0 y' V, J3 h0 T/ [$ f! Y2 s/ I1 `repeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with. L3 E- k' b* l+ M! m
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at* i, J! M# z1 K4 a9 y
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
4 c& W6 w( V, L- [! Wof 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in& z1 ~: Z5 v# I% {) A3 e F
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
; Y6 X6 M N l9 O7 V @4 U- {economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed- P; L( o$ I1 d+ K1 d$ Z6 O/ i
'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
2 `% [& y' p+ V4 Ryour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
# S8 F/ ?8 \7 v. y5 E& Qopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the6 q- l( g0 B, u p
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
+ x. N( [9 k. R" ?7 Gand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.8 S& U# b9 J5 Q/ j( t
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; f: h) y! j% ?7 A; RCapital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
$ V5 Z; o1 f5 P# P- e- l6 A4 UMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see
! W7 r3 _9 G/ O+ O, u7 e% N) jhow these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:0 s( ^9 X7 j7 R C" w, r
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%: _; i2 e) W' |( E5 w) H. [: }$ q& X
AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%
9 h" t' A# r- c+ D3 v. MSK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
* r9 N" a5 u: kMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
2 E7 d( }% m5 x4 B* V0 ZON . . . . . . . . 23.2%. j( ?" u. ` _" q+ U
QC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
6 M* h W5 A r5 m: |+ `% p% aNB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
# h8 A6 e3 K$ t8 }# @9 e$ A0 @NS . . . . . . . . 24.1%0 u! B2 `! Q% B( J
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%
; h- d3 t. a" _' F5 [' M. gNF . . . . . . . . 24.3%
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0 ]( a) C# G4 L6 t V2 U, YLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
! y3 g. G7 ~ r& ~economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
; G( q I, \0 R. m% E# ctheir profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.( k7 }# p1 k5 p# ?
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0 z( F% N8 |; F3 jOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
3 n8 N+ p0 ], b0 U" y/ w, ~. Eopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
! Z( g/ u! K7 M* icourse, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'! l0 ^, S' M; z
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion- B8 o" [- @3 q; P) \" Q9 [! a$ o
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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! U8 f! n' r% u \, \Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
9 `; x8 ?( W }+ j& U4 M3 Fresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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