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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG
" z' Q' c. [7 D8 t2 {: n% E如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。: d4 P3 F) D+ {4 b) W3 e \. ?2 U
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http://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html9 \( T) i- B1 `/ p3 L
/ ?4 o+ x' _: x3 @5 I& pFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania
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: j. H+ S' ]$ E- {/ f/ S2 EIt is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself9 T5 h4 h1 Y# u' p! x. ^
, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science
4 ?7 d* E, k. c$ ?) }$ Z. i( @magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this, l! C' H& Q) i3 X3 v+ o4 q
is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the/ X6 | p! U, \+ ~& H
scrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general
; y& r) f+ P# P* @, j# ]! o) l, npopulace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors
1 A" ~( B6 [( h! V6 V. I0 k/ F3 G: Zshould at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,
$ E; ^% a7 a/ t$ z- ]4 Awhich they blatantly failed to do.
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First, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her
* J8 b- D7 d6 k! ]Olympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in" z {- d/ W/ \, z
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “+ }4 n, N# q; F
anomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
# m1 r6 X c$ V( B% X kpersonal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an
9 R0 t8 H: J6 {8 Q; @improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the
4 @: r$ }- ]# o% x& r: sdifference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to
& w8 N5 s! h% E' r. |be treated as 7 s.
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Second, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is
% F4 d9 p& Y3 F% Q lstill developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem" J$ w, c2 f% J& K X1 Z( x' c+ B
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.
# U0 y, l1 t# U o; r- y, nAn interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 400
' S* z! J( s& r. L% d-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.5 [( D8 p) o2 R M' a9 y& l2 x Q4 G
For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an0 u, G0 J" A3 m" P" s
elite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and" f7 v5 M7 I, G9 Y" c
persistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”1 k! o, ^; \7 ^) {5 X
based on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.
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Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook, o9 f8 k2 n* b" u5 \; [
example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in* \& x& F X4 V# a* w
the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so
: d( ` |! M2 z! l; V; S) Yhe chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later. T! j) Y- J! {% ^; _ @. d4 X8 o) l, `
events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s' V N+ w3 p, j4 g. m
best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World. l5 N; C/ N0 _* U# B! x5 J
Federation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another
1 p- j( |& U+ Ctopic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other# D1 E9 @7 P5 W" H; d: w
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle- n3 w/ o3 w0 ?* r, b* o
, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
! A" B- M6 B# vstrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds
2 B2 p+ b! H& g: Ufaster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam+ V# U' O) R. d! U2 |
faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting
$ [# R2 K x( x* b' i5 v- ]' q+ a' R7 Kaside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that
1 K8 W( U% r" S3 h; [: C( eimplies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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, }9 Y8 \3 f# zFourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are
8 P4 t! u0 A" t' X3 L; \four male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.936 r" J) \' [) c- B' K P# j6 h
s) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s0 T) n; M8 \( [7 R
), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns
- k( Z/ C) K1 u G% p2 m1 Zout, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,
( a& J; { ^3 C" U% q9 lLochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind8 `& r3 S0 |: B( a
of scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it
2 a( a E% L ~/ ]6 }! Xlogical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in
' l: R! \$ x: q) ^5 g! N$ W5 ?every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science
8 s; ] k3 Y! F) r9 Yworks.
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Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and
# T2 Y( p6 @+ Y# H2 P1 eimplies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this
" L) t9 q. o. b" J8 r/ g- Akind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that
8 K( S& |3 s& Estandard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific5 J" ^4 k: s1 |% n0 D) x
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and3 U8 p% b5 i9 t* @2 ^6 z5 z
reviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One& l/ n3 s' d8 h" @+ h6 e, U( @- l' B
cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to* v! b+ H A3 |- F" @( I
demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works
* ]' [& q. g* d4 n& _( `to a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample( k3 ?8 _$ y0 b8 K5 a6 p
is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is
) V) H- N- C% V8 O6 icrucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he. @7 [! X& @, Q% E
wrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly: X' ]. s1 ~$ f5 j+ A2 v% g/ h( I
advanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the$ R$ l j, x2 W7 p) _
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not
- S& t+ y9 L/ U7 r3 Kuse it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation
; R2 ]9 Y5 o, K# z6 C! y( h. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are/ G+ \2 e7 v) B2 M: k
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may( Z9 C5 c( k6 o1 y
be true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a% e3 Z+ v" Q" n6 D: r$ y
hearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye
7 I' {4 ], B" D* w' g2 a9 p6 O( Zhas doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a
4 R- U! ?" E' Mdrug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:3 w. r$ n E6 V I
other than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect' g7 ]) q1 F! o8 q2 q
, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is& J! J9 I- J, y f1 o% p
probabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an
; C6 M1 B, t8 P. X w: a7 Mathlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight- q5 S1 v8 R/ j0 M( L/ ^& A
chance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?
8 C# b% \$ R% x7 b1 VLet’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping& F& I9 t9 ^8 V; K9 z4 H2 r" ]
agency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for
1 k; e6 d* O- feight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.% P; Z1 @6 v. p
Innocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?
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Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-
6 J! e1 j2 ~2 t4 g4 ~$ Ocompetition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention) Z% K9 a6 J7 [# T0 _% m
. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for- S+ ^$ Y0 L' Q* t
Olympians began at least six months before the opening of the London
$ `0 @) `+ K/ W& }7 O% JOlympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for. }: I. u+ `: [& u% \
doping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic$ M, h$ m, Z% _0 r
games. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope$ n$ z7 \6 W6 x1 u! j
have already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a- y+ x' i7 u0 U% s Q$ m& ?4 b/ m
player could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this
, H! y9 \0 V& d, qpossibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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Over all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (
- k! f* ]0 d6 _intentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too, M; v$ d, d/ N& C
suggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a ~' K+ l' g/ [2 m
suspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide$ i& R) l v; ^, w
all the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your, b. M6 q( j+ H2 M
interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece, k# ?% Y ]7 {% Y- L
explicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your5 w4 Y# Y3 ?) ^3 _9 G9 B
argument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal
$ x# e: N5 r* x1 {such as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or) `; i+ d% V0 `3 z! Q8 w! I
reporting should be done. |
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