市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) }9 j9 a! K/ }0 _3 p* s9 u* XJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
4 k9 Y6 j- Y  l6 D

5 G! W0 m  _2 V1 s: z" ?1 `. qBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 \8 V2 }. I. o) `, B4 Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 W. l4 }! \! n+ J Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 Q2 v, R3 O9 A- v Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
1 D+ m$ J" X1 l+ V1 x# {+ Y The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 c: t& _% d! x2 Z8 f9 kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! R: B5 a+ u/ B; m6 N% FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, M* b0 D% k: X& ^# e The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

, `( ], ?$ R2 k! s3 }) iA look at credit markets
" V% S! i# H) T/ V Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. p# o) _3 G0 Kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) K& s' ^! S7 C9 W2 n4 Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 S8 \8 K8 X" H  u7 yaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- E; c$ ?3 l2 T. V# Ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- R! P$ X+ N; b4 J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
7 L3 j: G+ z6 g# C Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ D) ^0 y  c3 V1 h0 h/ V/ A, A1 Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  e# L7 k; {* Y5 i3 ?( Z2 Gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 p3 [8 q0 L- C8 H European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 d# N. p* k* @; b8 \, s- t9 Etoday.
% q  n4 J9 V3 N: l' `9 ~8 w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# g+ A7 [, m" Q+ M4 p. o5 Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% \1 K$ b  o. Y  Vthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 z0 h. M6 B+ Q5 y. ^' Q9 r1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 `2 n% ]0 Q" [* `2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 D9 X. a8 v& \+ P- C9 s$ @2 }8 T5 Cdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; S  f9 d7 k, p& c4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
0 t4 c2 D0 L! o: P1 A* R, w, _ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 ]* b9 K) k5 }0 z. [! ~, fbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ s9 U6 i0 g# d8 w5 x8 {7 ~/ }Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
& m. e/ t( j; x: j8 t; W: e We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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