TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
( D& |4 T0 d5 R* C" K% P0 c" Aunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
& G9 C8 L8 N& V. P& J% U/ ]( zfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
# Q* @9 {. F' q4 P) p' g. x8 G7 O# A& kthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
+ s3 S2 o( \1 ?9 Y1 t  m! T, x3 L12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
$ T; s# J6 ~4 g& H8 MBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
7 Y4 t* y- A) |: }2 c  m8 D, dtheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
$ z* v+ ^7 _# r# Q# nboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
0 M5 y1 N$ ]. `( }  B; Jto fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
4 i2 }" M  l7 Rwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
7 `: ?9 b2 M6 n0 Qhomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
. p, G0 i2 U2 bmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
0 X* N$ u- ?# p  p9 eon markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
; u. o9 L: ~4 Q# z4 ~6 S4 {2 B8 yto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
  O# V* A& a0 O3 v) B+ I, a) _residential construction will fall further to around
" u" ?2 u& S' @4 J" |125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
9 s+ _/ x  _+ U/ }6 o7 @) k: Dwe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
6 k0 }) @! R0 x. Q& |" ?; Wlong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
: @8 l5 h- J2 j( t' E+ Yregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
- A0 T$ {+ T! K6 CTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
- Y' z' a& e- ~7 N“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
9 ~0 W2 X1 F8 @. {; D7 X4 m& X' `+ [" aoptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
- @7 J0 ?+ T& ?fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
6 x4 t( l8 Y% J( h/ @many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
& {7 n% o4 ^6 e* E8 ~where housing demand will further contract under waning
6 X8 |' ~8 p1 u7 U1 ?. h- L( {population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
( l6 O3 F3 B) Z: B* _: U. ealready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
* G6 K* |$ z) b& u; vvery time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
" ~/ a: ]7 j# @) ]+ ghas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
( q( ~& I, l8 t; `/ Eweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
7 ]2 O, }, Q! K& C& [" F2 d  mrates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
; O- K, I1 m3 N4 glimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
# N: q' t( s  t, d; J1 Wcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
& b( v( N' o7 D+ P9 d8 Oresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
4 `) }8 T4 }- L& mwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
: B2 c' o  S9 b# h: H3 qOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
) X4 O6 [& ^( f8 a' D. G4 KMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
( N7 F" C  s5 L0 V3 b9 G% v; q* V7 c416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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