No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
9 D: r# `, H  y9 m
In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.

9 t) q' ^# \/ A+ w1 r4 }* D& ]"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
0 d  {! t9 A/ j2 M% Z( Q
$ g5 {' ?, [7 D; n2 e; s0 |As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

- Q' t( n8 H0 d' p"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
; K9 W- h. a" a$ h% M/ K$ w
; P% S4 m6 x7 D7 b& j6 i, uSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
, n, f9 h& u- B; Z$ l
"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
( A4 X6 U) {% d  U% h% |  K8 R9 C
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
3 `7 v) V, S2 n" y) p$ s看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

8 n: c1 c' [# ]3 c, ][ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]