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Attention Real Estate Reporters: % f1 t7 d# ~: m- `' k2 w
1 A e# @8 j) i6 j3 e% ~9 GDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
8 `* c; V! Q. W# g& t TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US8 S% P( G8 \3 s) @# U q& J
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern2 d. r' L4 c* T2 D) A" j
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging! }9 u. ^9 I0 `) R% H2 _
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 u$ G$ v, ^) w& R2 f( yand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more1 D5 z+ l3 E& h: {
upbeat.
! a- V5 r8 e, [ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
- S6 p3 Z6 E, N5 k* u/ Wannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
3 A+ @! l* ^) ]# M8 D4 [( yinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real! X F& c% x+ q" [+ j
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company8 d( A+ M2 h. W- ?$ Q
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
0 O( Y% t" \5 d( K! T# [Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world( n& P/ O, ^9 U
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
8 q* @, q2 P" |+ r: W& C According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian. a7 _$ H1 B! P2 c$ J' \
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment7 d8 U3 w$ {5 \' c( u/ k0 H9 M7 a
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
; _6 K8 b/ k9 C4 V7 S5 n1 X( Pbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 p& G" _4 s3 e. M: _
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
- o8 c+ v7 l. Q+ Q+ c v4 u0 k! ` According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
5 p- b& R4 ?6 j0 W+ {6 Y" y& iborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& k6 H6 U; B+ xspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
1 f, Y. x. l2 I; q/ X! xremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; i3 z$ B7 m) T) O- I/ C* dcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be0 R9 I, L( g& S# I2 R5 L% R3 Q" t$ K
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.$ W% F7 U S/ c# }% {
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian$ E1 K! w8 c: X3 S/ b; |$ L! l( y
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
' K2 d+ N: Q- A. L; \! hcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
; F3 j; b6 k' j7 [% u# X" tdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country: h0 z/ b H, P
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating5 J2 T9 C [: Z% h
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
6 I3 B- n( C$ Qresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to3 O) I1 E8 |8 r0 B& ^
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
# m$ j. M; E2 n# @0 g/ a$ `single-family housing looks overpriced.& ^9 C8 }% v$ x2 V
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with% P& E- Q9 i& J; L r
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian3 I: N" {9 B1 E, o: O" \
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
7 |3 a+ ~5 q% yhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
4 q4 b" x+ S: O& T5 a+ h9 H( G% [new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,: X$ C3 ^3 F1 _5 N8 P, |
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental' \' v( j$ |& }9 M8 x3 r3 f
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
+ |& E! W% w) x' S$ |- S! fwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
4 q, r$ Q3 o0 R( S$ xshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into) J6 v# S6 y" @2 N% d
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development) Y" }9 u; }4 q' A
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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6 h& S$ t( ^1 l) N6 F) T: P# x Canadian Markets to Watch h. A4 }, o3 p, X# V; P6 }
' ]4 B' F+ ^6 L3 A$ I6 u+ v The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central4 O' i! p$ l, l4 d/ c E* V
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
_. k, U5 V G# U* d1 qneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
8 C4 ~* M4 O; o# ?8 z' U4 B! k4 Sinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in' s. {, R' ?6 p+ }
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical% v- X0 i4 x+ y/ N$ x& j
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
& e! p$ O7 d4 t/ Z O4 xwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment! U; f/ p, o" I3 y( j
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain& N# U* D1 d% y5 J; O
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.& N, v! \- \' z; h) u& A, s' `( B
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
: @; J1 u% N( A/ D, g% ^" Cratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging." f" C6 G' @$ M1 A9 v4 a2 f8 o! m s
1 H9 H' I7 ]- v% F5 Z- f' r! ^4 {. \ Calgary/Edmonton
7 m, c3 a3 T! {( B3 Z6 u4 e7 }
8 U C$ h, |& c2 X& B. c5 w& k Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one: P# N- X9 n) w+ }7 M. r
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; c% K9 I5 N/ n! P9 v+ gbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,- K# E0 @3 v# E4 e
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.+ d+ O2 D9 e, y4 v6 E- u" V' l
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale" C3 u4 ~9 F) a- s Z
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
2 g1 ^2 O+ \1 I3 U E Q ~$ MCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays; Q# k: `! ^% g+ _8 e
strong, this market will continue to do well.
7 u, e. m7 ^6 y: N0 b$ v2 f9 p3 ^0 Y' H
Vancouver
8 ?8 B3 s; `. t3 j4 \4 y- D
7 x. s+ `9 D2 S: @. o7 a. a4 t Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is9 ]8 D: R9 f' [2 I1 X
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
& v% e3 `9 P, l/ p4 }3 G# u( w7 Qreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the; E* ?$ o& Q+ `5 u5 I* e
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
8 e# f5 }* n: w6 N! lgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy+ N" K7 v) \5 V" g
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%- n$ ~2 y' ]; ^0 z/ R6 X
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
9 E! _! p$ N/ @: A* A3 |3 \& afor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
; I+ S; B: F/ r7 ^; S2 a/ fgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.: o, K7 p, y% |
) w, D% L8 D' u6 [3 r" A H7 `$ i Toronto
. Y( n: y' v$ v2 T$ ^ M
8 Y7 t: v& B, j/ `- r# D4 B Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and% ?1 I1 `( p+ R* }5 R, @
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
, d8 J, {5 R1 g% h3 @relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
; F- c. q( _6 H* u5 _, u1 j8 l! Bindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.& T- D9 b% c$ r1 Y* d
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square& O O$ }; ?" P+ y, w* v+ G
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and" J: n& J; J0 T1 P
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
$ `/ C# O; ~( e- l
0 e# y# j6 @% v: Q Montreal
* L( }" L& A5 E. d6 B" P
# a5 ^" S$ I2 K/ a5 v8 S Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
0 R) N* ~& H A9 kgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up1 a6 I0 D2 l! |. }2 s7 r- d
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
8 v# a. [0 T& U2 x: t1 x1 ]Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate+ Y( N# k" ]0 l9 U* t8 r2 n
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors2 s: C/ p, [1 ~
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 h" ?4 W1 ?: _: y0 E# z: R( g
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy5 I* z# _1 m1 `; u w
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
( ]/ @; w% U" c |& Xnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest7 {* D7 H+ L, I1 Z g8 B6 @
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
! d/ f% D) e- O$ C7 @1 J' R c3 z3 Uprices."
, ?$ d* a. l9 a! D9 M A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at3 G6 }7 h+ F1 e& o
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.2 [- I5 P% s3 c) N! ~+ G( b7 j
6 P& ~- Y& e& p1 b6 i1 r About PricewaterhouseCoopers. W' m. X+ D+ O5 z1 M# Z2 W
$ [- m- O- ]8 K: ? PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
3 L3 c% V% ]1 n t& p4 _tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its5 t0 q: q5 @: O5 t. w& K( [
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) i: G3 r O4 } V
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop$ r, Q/ e8 Y- N+ y% o. _. `
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of1 |* F# j1 J2 M, r
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 X5 L5 A W/ D$ x+ S; a
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- t0 x9 L7 S( `) [8 q
country.
" Y. X- t# [( [ "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
6 P2 I8 [$ p9 i4 klimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the) X/ H8 Z' E) i% q" V, P- u
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,8 r, v6 B% c% @/ t* K1 r; j+ ?
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.1 K$ V0 t7 D( q: C3 q
" t5 P/ Y) _7 n' x About the Urban Land Institute
( J9 H& p& b' A# S5 N" Z% H
& F& I/ A7 M+ Q/ b6 n The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
1 @9 {$ O9 j( K6 ?7 y. H. _" L: O6 B$ x* bresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide9 `4 F3 {6 m+ b/ C3 ]" X4 g
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
7 U3 E/ Z9 F M6 [+ _7 v5 Nthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
% D J. U$ O+ o. q. i5 mthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
. ]6 M5 D" ~! _disciplines.
) h [9 o& ]/ Q( E. L6 ^0 v The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.3 D5 u2 c7 z) i% M
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
! v6 e$ u& V2 I& @8 _! ECouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is' `& u3 h- j( ~' e K
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be3 w# y8 T& D* ^3 n n# k, n
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
0 P9 I' a2 |* i9 _2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake: o+ R0 L, u( X- G" p5 A0 V0 ^$ Q
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,1 t4 `/ ?5 v+ ~2 l. |6 X
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please- c8 \3 \ P& T
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
; G7 y/ K$ a7 W/ n, f8 C- wthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.. t2 N$ z4 e" I. I: E
" p1 H, {3 x3 r% p1 @, d
: `6 z7 G1 y7 o1 i7 u+ I
% r8 B& @) S N6 b) H( qFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
, w! H1 }; K. a5 l" r6 g0 ]; m1 d4 ?(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com" B$ z8 e9 t# ^' N$ I( u1 ]
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html, g2 }/ X: b7 i2 ?; ?
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