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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 0 [( }3 B: p/ b) M
$ `& f$ _; l5 R% _6 XDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
9 @% F6 ?( c# p0 \- E, B9 e. S$ O TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
* K, M3 t$ }# ^1 _$ I! }4 Dcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
% ^( a1 P+ D ?6 e; m& `% @as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging# O5 @! h8 Z* F9 L! J( {
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 b5 w, e; N# ^6 r$ i2 V# ~* }
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
" }/ x$ e5 \6 y) q& P' lupbeat.
7 K/ }! |/ J* d, ]) M Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded7 p& @9 n9 b( q. j _& E
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects$ S5 @1 k. |* o+ G! w; N
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
6 n/ v7 K+ ~/ n/ u, gestate experts, including investors, developers, property company/ k- v- H8 O8 ~* {4 q
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
9 m3 y- n& [3 J/ ~Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
- {; Q( e* k' j9 ~* _; K6 H8 oincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
1 h8 J: h+ f0 j l' s According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian, `4 i1 l6 u- G0 `- D
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
' c% h9 V( Q+ Y+ u7 g* e( denvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
% ?6 }; M; J+ a8 K1 x/ c4 Gbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record. B% m& l7 j' h( b
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
1 w! H0 u) E) n& Q& h According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the* H& `: X0 i% N) }% P4 c$ G: Y% ]
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game7 A9 Q$ o6 N; S2 C }
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey* S" }8 K" F( x5 a, n) x$ M
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
4 d9 [* ^9 B( ?4 O" }; m3 Scorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# v- s) P# p7 D* F7 mvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
! d6 |& l. M6 w. g The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian+ T2 ?2 a( q! l
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
2 h; J4 `; i! p1 ucommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land0 ~/ ~' [: Z( M- d
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country* V' @# g# c+ r" M) w
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating5 ^8 m ~" k/ D" T' l$ d5 |+ }6 ]
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
5 y; n! @- t3 z: F+ C6 wresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
; J% e7 n! S2 n1 i+ o C8 Ktake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
- I. S: r5 {( ~0 gsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
$ w; J0 u) @) Q& ]9 e" l0 P0 ~5 Q* p+ A Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with" \$ h6 @' ~# A
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
4 V8 V! \6 C+ Bmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
0 u: O* b- A6 X& u; z0 u1 Mhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
& A% c# Z, C# j8 Q& Y& Dnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
4 e5 ?& Z. f, |. D) band most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
- T8 E5 I+ C: _. H: G! W- v- Uapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary: O4 t/ W- X7 z- u) Q# b5 y) z& g, W
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
: |$ i7 I* [+ \shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into/ g* i: c% K$ w
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development% A0 t/ ^- @ k$ T) o8 U& `
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
& F. ?8 _1 O) _7 H9 s) l& R9 ]0 ?8 x4 j2 N5 w) _! s1 H- K
Canadian Markets to Watch
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/ p0 j, g% ~9 G- o" W* Q The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central1 C p! N( k/ h8 C6 [8 n6 \
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
: p3 H' F9 \4 `; N# z7 l1 o. [neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back7 i5 r2 `& W; \7 z
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
5 ~/ l7 g) r: W+ Ldowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical- D7 y E4 E, O1 O* q
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
% [0 R9 a. M. x# Cwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
3 y! D1 |, g9 k+ C6 ^+ a7 Rprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( _) c/ K5 `& I) M, H8 t: [whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
0 S- L( B7 L: p1 \6 a% ~2 nToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
5 o5 o9 e$ \+ Sratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
W' e" d* Q+ }3 z
8 u8 Q4 e [ g; J- x8 T- b6 s Calgary/Edmonton6 O, e/ U6 o9 Y8 N# a& N6 @
3 B6 q& k: t0 C
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one7 `$ ^: e s7 H, _
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a v! i. j0 c. L
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
& x% _+ p) P) q" M: _, ~; `48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property., H" F+ [6 U4 y, W0 {- \% @
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale7 f! \& _, f9 R1 L
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the _9 B, R" H" a: a, z
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays2 {( R O. _# k0 J4 y2 T
strong, this market will continue to do well.9 e4 o/ a" I! p! W* s
7 ?: {( [5 S5 t5 d
Vancouver7 A% w7 l" I. H
, p' s3 o0 F2 W W$ U& k0 X Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
/ u) i. W2 o7 n% A8 ^8 kbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
4 O, o* \% R4 K0 V' Q' w! g8 t+ Ereal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
W& Q8 f# S. [3 D2 C3 _8 [2 Q3 x8 ^market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
" }( |5 b- }1 y9 I$ k8 kgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy! V$ l8 T2 j$ B' Y! V( h# @
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%/ S1 {8 N/ U. F4 F) D$ z/ j2 K: t
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%- w! H4 U& _& R8 u
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very- ]' F, A1 X' c4 Q$ ]/ t1 C9 p
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
7 u9 l- ?0 E Q% ]# u1 H' [$ w4 V0 W" Y) K5 U
Toronto
W6 h0 Q' i: b% _8 m
2 d; O0 ^4 L4 o$ P Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and) g+ }; a" r0 I: ~" B$ k
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
7 x( l! L" R' Rrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing7 l. J/ c9 ^$ L2 u# h
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum., N" W" q G/ m" Y' J6 S6 y# \
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square" t* J- O2 D& ~5 r# ^ ]5 q
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and; @& j W3 V/ I0 X/ k% m7 `, R" D
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
! [- Q7 e8 Z0 i2 H
) q/ q5 m0 ~0 ~5 b Montreal* N& g$ v, R( _" M* B8 e
4 K3 e+ A- C/ z8 I# c. p1 M
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. @, L3 z6 i3 `; x# O
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
' k5 k+ k# Y a$ D- Z) Cshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
( s% v+ T/ M# {) }' I6 z/ HCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
) y9 x' A8 m, W; Ssectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
! l, j" k$ d! }6 Z# b0 ~, yhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
1 l% P1 a# y' g4 P" {
4 u% a @; T O! B9 z2 D8 v7 b The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 U; E" D4 a; y
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
_6 D9 G0 a/ t; G6 b4 mmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos; e5 j2 n W6 D
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest- P8 T8 z7 X! D! }. A0 r/ Q+ f
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current+ l4 P( l. l; C2 ]6 r
prices."" Q2 n C/ t5 b4 b4 M
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at' `% r# a4 g1 Y# p! Z
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
7 ~/ d: ]1 p4 C. n/ n o# i' \1 |# e4 c: m8 j
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
* d8 W) w. I4 n8 @' j" g* y$ j% X$ a. M) c- M, ?" F, P
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
6 S! R6 Q5 H9 i5 e; J9 R- e+ z' p' _tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
4 n- _4 C \" {# r% q" tclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) V6 A6 `2 v z4 U: Vacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop# r9 f8 K* \8 [0 M3 ~# m! m1 x
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of) {6 c2 y0 }6 D- V6 }% {5 d
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
* c* N7 B( a; erelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the" k6 l$ j, |, b9 E( Y
country.& x4 ~1 D" i2 O. d4 a* B1 X; E
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
; d1 _( }7 N3 T/ I# }4 Q$ Llimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
- R4 \; i+ N) b# fPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
8 A( M% R" ]4 |- S0 |" r* seach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
! @" G! s. }# G9 {5 k/ H
! z* H& t" c% {: K M0 S8 V About the Urban Land Institute
. r, u3 o" \% V1 q d' d+ ?7 o- X8 j2 h0 r* y: L" l' p
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 V4 n) t' D$ ?+ U3 g
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide% m0 B, {7 @3 |9 w
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
X( V# n, F' Fthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
$ C" Q8 K/ ^3 h# T0 ythan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
6 t& L% c7 Q9 S$ ], z% M4 rdisciplines.
0 u6 X3 E: ?9 K/ Z3 I2 \4 L* W- B The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.& Q- `8 U) p" |( n% n, S2 U3 M- k$ l
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District" {* n+ h# F) h# e8 U% {* M7 A. @
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 Z' V5 |# t; o2 Q' b* w( o8 Know being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be, o, }% u- N+ Z
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! @7 [6 H# `5 @2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
3 Z$ H }* ~" r% W l9 o. C$ u0 }5 q. p( IHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
, V9 l' Q8 `0 R# m# v( w" F8 \President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please3 K5 B2 h9 G/ P' f
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
+ l) r. s9 I9 l, ^$ {$ U( G! C& sthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
7 T1 C" v2 e2 l4 j" s/ J4 Z* \
! t0 u, k4 i1 N3 H+ F7 ?! t3 v3 v+ l0 M) Z6 @: C; P( x
# d2 y' Q7 B* e6 d2 n5 j! m8 sFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,9 b @( C \. s7 x
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
7 Z- r' g$ g8 E% Z( z; Shttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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