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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
( `! T& r2 q8 _2 L' ^ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
- w/ z: \4 K$ a% b& x1 {6 Bcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern) B$ ^( D8 O* Z8 y
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging* M* f, h. L8 A! p7 n
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
: K: r( d, G6 h& ^+ K; ?: uand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
( n! [% m7 K) d) l8 _" z6 f' [ [upbeat. b2 {, P6 H! F% v/ ?
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded+ U1 \% x6 I0 b5 c4 s
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
1 `7 b8 h- `& C' P( pinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
; j+ p* T0 O) l F& S3 Q, xestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' Y( m5 {& ~3 m! U+ M5 Irepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
, g$ k4 p. b. z* r6 ?Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
, A" G! R" s& Y6 `) lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe., j5 E0 d1 F7 ^$ l* H
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian, p$ t9 r) I( x* X! L3 }3 F: [, N+ |
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
, E. ^' d% j% C- Kenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to( }4 E! W6 `) f& I$ ]
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
/ B+ n7 \6 R- ~2 c6 X0 k1 n" }highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."" Y1 I7 b& o4 d/ @) o
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
8 k# \# ^) Q% M2 X! pborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game: Q4 b( x6 n2 }) @
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey$ L: k3 J f6 {5 [& G1 ^: A
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US; @/ H" O4 A& w( ~2 `
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be7 Y' S. H8 Y3 Y9 o; c$ X* B) G
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
! s% c) T y8 @ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
8 O4 N( W( ^) W( S& J. r+ Frespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by; K7 A; `2 c2 E" J! ^; [0 e9 p
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land; s, e) G8 v$ A4 z: X
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country: b- G1 J0 H. v
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating9 Y. J& @/ h3 }& Z) J" X
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
G7 U( u O, X' x% m' P& @# ^* j$ Yresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to% m6 Y; P+ K w0 t. f
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and5 }3 P% D1 e2 Z8 A" ~) }) Z+ i
single-family housing looks overpriced.# ` n A) e) Z- d7 i- L
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with3 C0 C* }, P) z. j
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
5 a( W. E7 |1 O3 \+ U& ~; dmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
" @5 t7 m2 M" n, f1 I \% W- zhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
; K) n) O. G+ I7 U7 |new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
- O' b1 A! e: ~; \and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental E1 q" {0 |- r+ O
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) z) K7 n- e& [) swestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
# w8 B# I+ m1 V9 U5 pshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
1 i& W1 H! Y# t9 s" k# `3 D2 E# Q8 | fthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development, j" g7 E9 p" R+ s( t- E
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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/ d8 b0 B( F9 {; A# H: \) _ Canadian Markets to Watch
2 k( m/ I& u% \1 a
6 A/ H+ U8 f! c0 p The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central8 f; ~/ o7 M$ y- v! \9 m* \
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour) J1 ~1 o; d. \, [ m
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back$ x; H3 C" Z5 ~
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in/ |& X4 J: ]2 c% N5 t' a( o+ b
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
' Y5 C) z4 w5 \) O* O8 a& ~) d. ~4 sprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
2 S5 C7 G( s- ~4 twest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
9 ?! s; U1 F4 _. a+ uprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain- f9 h$ E' G0 U/ ?2 X
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.2 f, C4 s; S& t- q- S( L
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high( D" C1 V h2 e1 {# B. Z( i3 S
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.$ _& Z: o+ a z
; ~; O8 M( c, E4 n6 N6 s
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
' O+ M/ ^" p5 {3 l+ d, zboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
# P" W) A2 s/ j/ g9 P) _2 ibuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
! w* C0 _, K& p( Q48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
8 R: n$ F7 T" H- ?" H5 B5 pFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
5 h: _" l3 K" m' q& p$ NHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the& [9 t- [1 t4 I
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
% q, t* d" u% c$ j' Rstrong, this market will continue to do well.
, K# s% z$ c; w# S( M1 h e/ h1 Z0 @: g: H ]% T" t
Vancouver3 H" |' K4 |; A
6 H- ?2 A; }: D* { Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
2 W/ ~8 r( w1 G) T/ ~+ i" E( Ubooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
: }5 G/ J2 V8 f/ freal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the6 ^( @4 J( ^6 F# X6 r
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) B$ T+ u6 |" E2 }% egrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy" l# M9 a/ b( y4 S8 E H
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%/ R0 h' g" t. h( x$ d- u: t D
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
' r+ H2 N1 A7 Afor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very* S. n% q# N) C# a l
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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/ E) |/ H5 w8 L Toronto
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. F$ B5 w0 k _3 r9 G Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and, |! i+ U) u; ~; Y8 I/ K; ^( X
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
9 e- r% ~, e* [& ^$ q! ]relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing O0 N' j; ~* S) X
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.! j$ Y, }* V/ g# \& b! q1 I K5 _1 q+ g
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square. b, W2 g) S& A h% Z9 R( o8 e
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and5 r" u+ u7 q; r0 T
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.2 U; R1 M4 v0 q* c
5 k L: a. l( g
Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
H: q6 |- z p: ]( Q& }9 f8 Fgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 c9 t8 I8 h* B4 W5 M9 tshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
/ _* ?7 c/ i. s# C9 B- ACanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
N( R5 N: \" n2 d1 L1 T. {sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors D+ k0 ~( Z( \0 O3 ?/ p
higher as a "hold" recommendation.8 n0 S3 X9 l9 S" [/ z% P
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years W$ Z; c$ j+ r- `! \* X
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
7 O8 R4 ^& h1 g( {* e; Y1 N) Omarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
' {5 i- r8 V4 ~* M- X2 T+ Fnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest$ {7 r8 Z/ e+ r
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
" u4 m( A( |% v, W6 bprices."
7 M# X0 q# t) C: _9 L: \ A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at4 ]+ ]7 b. ?0 o2 i5 V X
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
4 W- \+ u d' N: {
* M: A8 N' _9 j& C+ [; d About PricewaterhouseCoopers
" E5 W& M3 |: Q0 F) _' [6 n# N- O' ~3 Y) F
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,: `, N% G: _: z" ?% k
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its' p3 ?5 C0 x- j# V3 J" }3 z- O6 O
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
$ M3 ?4 ]. l0 Jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
$ z+ C2 \# t: h* Y% b% k6 l) B, E% Jfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
6 L+ R: F* k5 c2 M0 s1 Cexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its+ i6 W( N# D& w7 i4 S. p) P* ]
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
; {" B( h4 X( G4 Ocountry.
: L. i$ |$ J' ^ "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( ]% ^, z- _, |9 D5 L/ T
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
( t# l4 O U5 j/ p) d/ ?PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,/ ^$ g8 o0 q t Q( Q& P" R d9 @
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.. x8 W1 [( I7 z( W1 H
- k9 S0 @. d% {& c% M2 e6 [! _. y
About the Urban Land Institute) ? {' Y6 F9 d+ B+ t# D
3 t& q( d; ]/ W The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and; U* q3 ~# R1 }, S* ^2 \6 V) u
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
I! `: s3 U4 t# Y) R9 j) Aleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating/ G4 E5 z8 |$ q* P4 `
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
8 @$ W$ k- z3 x/ z+ Kthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development" k; F! f; v* H$ n: L
disciplines." g* W5 t- M; E, }! ~0 d" j
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.# l% H5 D; @+ T4 E& E! p% Q
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District" G$ [' k' q- a6 n
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is- z( i* L# g+ i: X- z8 J0 }6 u
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be- e# C7 {8 o) C/ k
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
6 Z- I+ n8 Z( D j. Q8 z2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake9 p/ w& ~9 j- s ^
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
9 B% m2 _" q% H' @+ qPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
" v" s/ F7 B( H7 n, @8 gcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
' r2 f2 n& W8 c h+ D% Bthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.0 E& S3 {* h( r* Z2 v( }
! d! A0 W0 j8 r$ m8 I
% T- a% E. K, ?
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,6 I" n% [ C0 V5 X# z# A& M
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com( E# N. k+ t. l u0 R& I1 l( e0 ^. M
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html, e$ [6 S% n& Q0 e' \. n
& _, q" c! N; x9 J4 G) ^) c, U[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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