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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ; v* L% v* j3 e m: K
$ ~! _ t$ C) [+ e1 {
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat - t* o# u* M, g. j* l x
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US- B0 h2 }( R5 c& T: D& K9 ^
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
% ]/ ~ ?/ Y0 V' ]& N3 Uas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
8 y4 o r; `, y% ~# W/ OTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 y, O9 {+ A6 S7 {+ Zand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more, M* D, @- ^4 f, O' q
upbeat.( A3 c# K) [8 g! Q: d+ B+ s3 O
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
# h% g1 a) ?' k; n0 ^annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
9 c+ w" o. ?; P! Qinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real R1 h3 i9 i7 ?! Z0 H s* |' w! m
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
1 W! P8 h6 D, A* ?0 a% prepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
" b9 W, }. b! M) ^. oOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world' ?2 K# ]; J2 S( D- F) E* L
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
6 a) A6 V- G: K8 E6 }6 H- s, ~6 B) T According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
. g' t$ S5 R/ \1 c9 m& P4 i- LReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
3 O2 p) Q( A/ \environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
- w5 F. z; V1 f$ V5 L; ^3 |- gbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record6 j9 G# v, `* Q: {2 \+ |' m; I
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."' F1 M0 ?$ d4 S) B1 b
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
* z! E* H7 q2 f- M q0 Cborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
) m! \& _# c# z4 {: d4 Ospeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
% T- ]- w% u) ]remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US5 Z% p! ~ h+ ~0 E0 I- w3 j
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# P" u! ~! ?$ k" E& b$ Fvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.5 s4 {1 L. d8 Y( g
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
7 ?; B; s! ]( K2 trespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by7 a% J: Q; M7 h/ L% q N
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
3 L' Q; l; ?4 n9 W5 M, ldevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country6 D# R* I, P: z1 B2 X
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating, G1 }9 Y, `& X [5 K1 X! y
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The* I, z/ @/ N; J9 _
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to' G3 _. Z4 G) [
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
% q' c( Z {5 J( H4 a7 J) asingle-family housing looks overpriced.
6 _ l( M0 J, H+ B, {* e5 r: J/ m2 f Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
: I' G% e8 x! k9 s+ Ktenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
G1 K( l( \0 A l2 m$ rmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push4 u" S8 L# W/ T8 l- S
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting0 H" _8 ]; C3 T6 I7 l
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,1 D" V$ B) K2 O5 u2 Y' t' v
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental+ m* J8 {. i7 e8 x5 N" w7 ~
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
3 a; a7 } ~# [. U$ _* _0 E/ Awestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
9 T' v; a6 _* j rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into, c0 z+ x# X: G. f7 W8 W _
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
5 x0 z1 `, l" A* I6 |! H) lin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.6 W$ X+ ?! U: J: x/ K" e
( T* K8 S/ P/ {' E4 n. t Canadian Markets to Watch
2 y. A8 D! G+ p2 `+ v9 m1 s l
# B1 W2 M+ v* Q2 F! Z The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
9 C% b4 h' S) b5 ^2 d: ~cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
9 z* O' W' ^8 t5 L* E9 Z& X; @, b* yneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
+ |* e6 T8 \+ f3 M9 b" b8 j+ c" vinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
. W4 i4 h4 O: Q, ~downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical" F* ^% o2 k2 r8 [
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
9 k5 W% {( g% M2 m+ T c5 x* c# Awest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
5 _" A; o& ^; d8 P K8 W8 ?prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
' s/ F3 |9 z/ W& n4 {whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
) G1 {& S- ~+ Y8 M. W3 o }Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high) j2 Z+ {) ]0 o: ^" n4 h7 b2 K
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.! a0 }5 E: u D
# t* j) _* H8 x/ l& q7 i+ H% I
Calgary/Edmonton" h% w1 {2 R9 A5 @0 m- t# K
# O4 Y" G4 `* ~' D- d- X; r
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
* F, V1 y% I% E# |/ \boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a, y. K& e9 ~" Y4 V
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
7 u2 t. P3 x; n/ N/ Y( w48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.1 M* n& ^, b! N. f
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
8 ]* Q, g1 K9 d$ ~+ |2 l& t" s' g7 sHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the/ M4 C( B" c8 p# `
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays0 t d& f( G, |# r9 a1 K; x
strong, this market will continue to do well.
- S7 T p: j+ E2 ^3 |
* T( b6 o$ n/ g# A Vancouver' V- S3 @- ?0 s/ @7 J' O W
7 F5 `( l) Y/ I# r/ V$ M
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
0 k2 O) V( z4 f( {booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
) B0 @7 l5 H( n Mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the6 w) [# C/ O9 X2 J' N& |; B* _/ t* z
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a$ s0 I9 F$ q) u) B8 v, \" k/ q) x
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
- g# A! F6 F; F; I p, ^& Jrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
/ N+ i3 r! Q7 r |2 E- e* pfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%) ~6 a* \' |5 H r0 b) J
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
E |4 h8 G7 t Z6 Bgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.0 }4 w- ^, w3 W$ }3 }$ f
& r/ \7 V- p2 }( E Toronto n! p( g' ]- r; ^1 g3 n
" j/ Z4 D/ H# Y+ D7 } Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and2 O4 T ~; i) S3 N, t' v+ `1 N
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is* Y; [) ?1 ^, u8 |) e: R, ~3 _
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing4 j. w5 a& d5 l+ M5 H# t/ c0 J. ^
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.# O, p4 T( V1 H" d' W3 g) z
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
' k9 C# z/ N B) r8 qfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and; A4 B7 b# p7 z" _# Q* T
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
* V6 Y; ~$ n/ f' P& F( T
5 u: i" n$ @0 D( t/ f( q& k6 z Montreal$ ~: |' H! I2 J4 W4 _: N
) h y, u8 ?* q
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall" V% j' I* S" K
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 {2 }* h `8 G6 q3 xshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in$ \& W6 U5 w$ g' ~% C0 F7 x% g
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
' V5 S% O- z0 }8 E8 B, y' R$ h+ isectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors+ }' X" y4 f' `& J
higher as a "hold" recommendation.) S( D! c/ c1 O y8 J5 w9 U7 E7 A
& f* ^- x. |5 Y. @: Z1 f7 G7 c The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
, `- o2 a, e3 Ninclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
3 E& X6 K6 _& ^- d g* ?markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
7 k- `4 Z2 P$ N$ W' fnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
0 w! @9 j" O+ @0 z, w Hoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( A9 N! ^9 a6 m' k5 l7 L- hprices."( o5 f! v9 A5 c _" t+ q$ K
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at8 n' H0 J! K" ]$ E" K+ ^
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
2 A$ a" h; {9 `1 e9 G- F
* o" w2 A. t! n( t About PricewaterhouseCoopers
' K; U) a5 s( p; r4 ]1 S
! Y9 f: C0 I# K V+ F: @ PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
' G. c9 W" H8 |- G- ~tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its0 w* a6 c% z/ I' ]& _9 S
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries& E2 ~! u( [- I9 j& h. \( a8 r
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop+ {2 }' I9 t; i2 e7 ~
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of" t+ F& x# L# E' w- N \
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
1 n1 ?( Y. i7 J6 l- `$ Z' irelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the' H' s7 O b: o8 r' ^- w
country.6 q' I$ E2 P! l- A6 V* L( w
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( g5 L V& ?% h, M
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the; C) @7 C, v& ?& L% ~
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,; H# v: f! Y' r- z z4 a. t( k! H3 s
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
( c, K8 {1 j( W) |$ S5 W! a x4 t9 ]+ F/ y7 o w( o
About the Urban Land Institute# K l0 N( ^6 B' \1 J$ _3 Y# f& i
4 D5 y$ I* A( w! H& i' [8 n4 D
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and8 k8 G8 a0 i" ~0 o, ^- h
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide' l/ c: Q7 V* b, X
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
" U5 D* C2 `5 fthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
- W2 i% s% x, P$ Hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
, ?; e8 G4 k! pdisciplines.- J( D! b! f+ ]8 U
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.* i! A8 ?; f7 r5 ~) x* P# z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
' U% m9 d/ U# D1 YCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; Q& F8 S0 Q5 e8 f6 {3 Fnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% P/ z& s% B- v, V6 thosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
; u% X* p9 `/ c$ C) ]2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
$ X+ P" x3 n! AHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,, y# n# @" V5 U' j- b3 v
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please; S8 q( N9 r5 u5 w& O
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on7 d7 @8 m8 c% g( i; s
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
# x7 Y* O# i& ~# @2 d' e2 o! G8 D. G& L- ^+ n/ p. h
) E7 x+ t5 v. t
, y1 I5 I# Q) O8 O4 p. K5 RFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
% M1 j, b- @4 p8 C) A, w8 X6 }5 C(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
' l+ _' Y* l5 g$ Q/ a& jhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html. m* y. O" y) m* R) T4 v* W0 x
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