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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 3 m/ P9 B* u6 `% p
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 1 i) ~( o, f/ W6 k" k
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
/ e7 k3 [( p; E8 s# ^commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
4 d3 S/ }9 G5 ?( m0 r! K% C Ias the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
8 }+ a! ^4 ]$ G0 E9 Q0 p/ HTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
* i5 M2 r6 c7 U0 _6 Q% E# D4 h$ V* O2 N uand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
! G4 W# f7 t- R& \) nupbeat.1 h4 M# M$ ^' \' s& {& \
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
6 [( Z1 z, z0 d# dannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
3 V& Y4 ~$ t) j: Y0 Binterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real% X9 v9 z' i9 @2 M) g
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
& J2 t$ v- _: u+ krepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
& p, `# O9 b# @5 u4 O3 W+ d# n* R0 yOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world: m0 w1 d; f' J' }1 R$ V1 h0 j- |& r
including Asia Pacific and Europe.4 N. O0 S/ k k" N, E3 [! Y3 G
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
; O. P2 z8 s- W3 k+ }- V$ eReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
& k* t; e5 {4 _) oenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
! e7 V v# S& rbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record. _; M* N7 n" O5 G7 g
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
* i3 L' I" y% ^0 m D1 T# q According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. {% n0 D' t3 \& O5 zborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game# l* g1 g h5 c
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
/ a2 f- K" J$ Z3 _ H% K9 Premain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
- U5 O! t3 `- r" c* Q M! W# h& scorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be2 x& G3 ~3 e& t7 {5 t
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
; b7 W1 N3 i3 B1 ~ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian* Q4 f: n2 j' G9 c
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% P, c. B% A6 W+ T& x) x
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
( n$ V4 R; U" F3 G6 l. Adevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
* H1 s* O C9 B0 ~' jespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
1 |7 y7 J m; m8 Bdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
/ ]3 a" L( X7 I. j, H1 q9 i4 Q( m, presidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to5 n+ h) A% [: t% c
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and X0 ?5 z9 r' z T, o
single-family housing looks overpriced.7 G# [2 w% I3 T) f1 B( U# P2 Z
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with& C0 g. f( B0 I( x
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian5 d3 L. n d) \; d& Y/ K3 A3 T4 e: H
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
) s, J, n+ @6 f/ Z" K- x0 E1 lhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
" K# Z$ Q0 Q9 ~new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,5 S. d# ~- t7 a7 a8 m5 Q
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental6 j C, P6 ^2 P5 E; }$ I
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
" x0 F: N7 D/ Q! O2 w" U5 ~2 rwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
! B. L2 ]! C9 H0 t* S/ Qshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
; Y: I$ q' `5 \ }& g) d( l zthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development: P: A' G/ z6 |! s( h
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Z* k3 G) Q v I7 n* \ Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
+ c- I) n! w* b2 Y6 E; X+ Wcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour( i8 ^8 K+ W2 p( `
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
- x" a0 W4 g# G$ A* s- ^8 S$ jinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in/ e1 F/ y: s: X8 G! \" b6 I4 y
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical) g* F2 T, U: J" Z2 N
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
. { A! m4 a- C* D- n3 hwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
* {3 x. Z g& z9 c( T! Kprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain8 U ~+ a2 j/ }+ ~7 {: c0 R
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
/ W' C0 O4 J0 G" T, kToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
8 B. y% I8 q5 Eratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
6 v, u5 A' E6 v/ \! I2 W e! m# B% V
: H+ U0 q. Y+ l) g Calgary/Edmonton
- s6 S: G+ B. m6 M" D6 ?& c/ O
; Z, {) g( M* G/ S' u Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
$ \/ K. b0 k m/ C2 W# Nboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
- o( F# ?( l, g: T# I G" [' Ibuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
l% e" c3 l. w6 N8 s48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.6 p/ C1 C3 p; g; }6 L. E7 Q
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale4 _6 r/ @; Q( y3 M: ^! {6 M
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the5 h! @4 T! x" Q5 z. S/ `: ]. t F3 {
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
: Y1 p! _. k" p$ @: Y. ~! P( qstrong, this market will continue to do well.
, R- C0 E6 O9 I/ k9 [: E0 L. e y
& N% w. N9 e4 |4 m5 p Vancouver/ e( p% x! g+ C: l' @
, ]0 n+ H ^* }, y! `) m% { Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
) V) ^! z( x9 I c% Cbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' z, k+ y. g) M y* x
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
! |6 @5 F6 ]9 C$ ]1 b* `! dmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) x$ Z, J0 ~& D4 |& ggrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy2 \9 `2 _ Z6 y8 h9 u. k" s
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%6 L% O! s+ u0 P N: J4 t
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%) Q& g( I: f) [2 E6 M! a7 |
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very& Q2 H/ C) Y b0 _
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.- p! H' m. i7 k
! Q: n" @( Z# M- {
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and, d. l* s/ X) a- r @: }0 j
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" H. e" Q7 G* \/ b/ D, Qrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing" c' Y% G" |3 i4 z
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.% f2 a4 b8 w( Z$ W) k) B: B
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
" f: A: `& W6 L8 ~8 L0 dfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and+ j4 [7 y" M2 l) N3 `; I
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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y: h3 g* |; s/ W. M# G Montreal3 ~+ U# H; b d8 l$ c5 z
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall: K1 S' d; @& y, h2 P
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up# p: P# o0 X& t: q/ r' S: j2 D j# f
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
$ e' s; y. g6 X- w3 iCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
0 P- R9 R1 V7 r! n% s' I! Ksectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors+ Q. O0 c, n m3 H. {, W: L
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
) F2 }+ a4 R- Q3 p3 s5 `4 Linclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
" ^0 g; H3 _: ~5 ]4 w8 P' Ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
! e% N0 F$ i2 U6 e: enear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
g. @* `4 o/ u4 g8 J0 ?overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current( h1 _3 q$ N0 ^% V- H3 J/ G
prices."7 A2 C i4 z( k( U0 j& U$ p
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
: V% X" ^/ ~, owww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,7 ^& z: y1 E6 D# W& s
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its4 [; _+ R v5 D& J( o' c" s6 }
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
! ^7 k8 W5 t" m: ~across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop% I% `+ g5 d) y- o8 P, @
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of8 V% }% `. M# ~5 Z- N- T
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its3 x9 h& ?$ Z# D8 F2 W% r7 d
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the9 b0 f# v% V% V
country.3 @5 \- E+ \ b7 {
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario3 z, d; d! M8 m7 u/ `4 b
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
* U1 x( t2 d- U4 Q- ZPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
: d$ O+ \2 t& x" T) J5 [. Heach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
+ Z; j' ^$ J7 q) }4 v
, q) e# |: Y) x- X& E, P3 I About the Urban Land Institute
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f+ n# l1 w$ H$ X: I8 G The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and. x/ T( b/ z) z
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide+ k, B5 [$ r& k: h6 D/ C% ~8 d
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating0 w5 a- y; A, i( Y d
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
8 Y' `* k7 C& Q6 f; uthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
; w, N4 w: H4 X/ Kdisciplines.
! V$ |2 d7 a% F4 S8 z' S- E0 P The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.; w1 V8 a; ^2 W$ Q
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District# n( f. B' [* O" x! r5 { ], n
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
$ t" M, g5 G: W9 t& lnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
4 _/ e+ O0 A1 {0 w% g: X! Qhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th," m6 o* K7 X9 m' U$ z3 Q
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake5 g( |$ l2 t T. W) q$ M5 D
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
9 I2 r3 |, Y5 MPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
1 e) u5 B4 |. D/ e: t* Ecall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
% n5 n& A8 n' M l) Qthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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- b2 t6 ^ H% X: p
: t8 a: k" z. |For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
: y, D+ Q n5 X! G% C(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
& |; H' ^! I( x' j+ w/ ~http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html- R' x/ e8 r, { }; b: t( _
4 S. z4 z3 M3 D- y6 X, w, U[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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