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Attention Real Estate Reporters: * |3 c3 V" G7 b4 f% J
5 |4 m; [' e$ a) y0 B. T
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
0 Y7 @) L! q3 n i6 J9 c C TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US( A6 Y# Q( |) ]6 s R. |
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern" @' o6 ~! {# f" a& g3 e
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging3 b4 ]- Q7 s1 H/ N* c7 v4 _
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)/ P/ b7 ?4 X0 g* l+ k4 ~( Y
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more+ Y6 ^1 i1 Z T
upbeat.- W. C* n6 u& ^4 Y7 P/ i4 t) F
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
/ v2 G6 R, [2 X( ^& C# |( X- W- Dannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects1 q% m% z- |9 ]" _% Q/ i2 o
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real% w6 i" r( V. P1 w z! _
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
4 E/ h( ~. k$ U9 |- N1 W5 Wrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
: |) S9 p% y9 X$ N r* N6 J( E4 ~Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world( O2 t: a9 D5 |' r; N8 R7 k# m8 a
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
: z5 D. D# j T7 @) o. G According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian3 e% U) J; P/ R4 J, F. t ?
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment* ~9 o6 }: L' e% T1 |
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
. {4 a! e% X# |- w* r6 F- n Hbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record d1 K2 \* X3 h @
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
9 q2 g3 d3 }& n0 g* r According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
: h. d( u9 G* sborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game# A- J3 H7 O/ n0 p3 s# n) H8 Y
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
! O N5 d( c& s" R- Gremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
! _( U: M* L/ ?2 [8 W' @correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be' u" }' X* N3 i. u' R
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.* v R4 W! [' c9 | ~+ {0 w6 j
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
2 k$ u( G P9 y; W9 N7 a6 q Wrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by( e/ {: b; x, q7 f
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, T* J( ]7 w! ?
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
- ~8 z: x# h) }0 m6 _, P n: _especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
- c. m# W; \8 [, \1 B# Ndevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The" @6 W+ v P2 S3 |9 S% E
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to( M, l, @) _' Z/ O1 {0 T
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
5 x: f3 ^9 U9 U1 m! }6 L+ qsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
# ?8 l# `0 w) u$ l9 V5 F Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with+ Z) m, m. M( N. O$ ~$ }' ?
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian. k' y, E3 d3 a- |( x/ R
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
$ P( N) ?/ o* l7 a: p k' I$ @& b8 Vhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting; W2 ^1 n8 O" ^
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
. P: _3 T# W; u" ~& _! land most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
" E! Y& m8 m# {- d2 V2 P3 japartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
5 l5 {: B4 J& b- A& [4 X; |2 dwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
* ~: M" A, l8 B2 I" F* I2 \7 jshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
9 P" ?2 A$ c- e, P, j4 U$ @9 b0 |% jthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development9 k2 ~/ F! g4 k, B+ |
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
g( ~9 ]6 g8 J3 X( A& q# B3 O8 [, @( p; B$ X
Canadian Markets to Watch
2 ^ g7 k, g+ t2 n% _( |* S: [5 R% w9 Y. ~
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
5 k. @' ^4 C7 X( W+ y& P: f9 gcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' c! N. r9 U8 @+ P4 bneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
$ d0 G& }* }8 C6 m0 i% Iinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, O" u% p6 C7 z, i) g+ b
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical8 S( c/ n- F( Q* N) ?1 p
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out7 }, p5 [& G; q
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
( d- a: ]1 l4 C8 y9 j# `prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain; P3 V+ j; a* v e7 X, R3 y
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.- i6 e6 H$ ?. a& m ?! F
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
* L! d1 ?! Q1 t2 }ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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+ B" G: B: N4 A5 i Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
0 _) ?5 g. v7 `8 u% o! |boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
( m' f* I- z" x' Vbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,% o g' ?' y& c% h' P3 V8 t
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
+ N" f6 n/ a% E, oFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
) I! j# j8 @; y4 [) d# RHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
( d/ k7 X% K( }1 RCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays( N% Q$ M5 ]8 c) B* w' q/ l
strong, this market will continue to do well.
- w- ?' g, B; R5 s, I
@1 }! Q+ T. @! m, z Vancouver
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7 f# ^/ P3 q; Q) ]# M0 j Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is. g6 K# U5 r& f, b, r, s0 x
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous7 w! a# l* S- N( ~" L+ c1 V/ J; J( ~
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
. L( @* y$ e7 Z6 p% pmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
* l" x' F0 W0 y* c: k; `% rgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
" l X {: V' J1 {$ P+ lrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%# l3 I9 p9 o" t2 m W+ |( j
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%3 g) J! ]2 ~* E3 K }5 ?) n$ f( V* u
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very1 H# s. A5 _! v9 i# k
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.0 i; |0 F* h9 [: |) F$ U" [
4 _ h, [# c Q2 P3 n* P1 Y! f Toronto
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7 h! v8 u/ X) a+ ~- {9 @0 J Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and; h. |* M8 _/ A' j5 g5 P9 H/ ~: e& k
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is+ w$ f% J$ u$ [) D) }9 g* W
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing( E5 S! \6 X; V( k' `9 w/ g
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
5 d8 D' S# S3 `- rThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
# K& L, e7 z: t7 s6 tfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and9 Q' b R" B. x2 r' G8 v: F' Q: \( I
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
4 J/ u$ r- m" _( |: Q$ M# r2 M, P, \+ f% k" E' e
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
# f* k2 r# w0 q8 Y0 m+ `growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up; B, D1 W: [1 h: V2 A5 X7 h
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 U# n0 M6 C% q9 h+ fCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
& ?8 X0 c/ f0 J& F# l9 ]sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
- N2 A, {; ` o* a/ \* {higher as a "hold" recommendation.4 c3 z# `8 P) S( t7 d. o6 D, x5 [
1 |/ v7 q9 @) J, B The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
' b8 C: ~% m( b3 v, Z. _9 w" i! {include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ Z2 i6 v7 `! k3 O5 Fmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos {" j. t! X- a! v$ j# t+ D2 y5 x
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
% J* W) r7 s$ U6 d( Joverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current3 t0 v: M% j' C( ?# s. E2 V9 g
prices."/ P: r4 L8 J( c' S" h! \- w% i
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
* M: K' A% q" k9 }# iwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
$ }* l2 [" X* |' e' M! n5 Q' n) D4 T% h7 a9 i5 y% Y! h8 ?: F
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
% _8 }" H! n! L/ btax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its! T Z3 y+ y- p6 ^. t [6 `
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries/ u6 z- @# y2 G2 ~- G: y& j9 Q
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
* n& L8 `; a' b9 I% Y: ifresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of1 K+ a% D/ u$ G8 v- L$ `% y9 r1 i
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its6 Z: l) ^( o4 E$ M& O
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
: {. q* F$ [% w, H+ i) acountry.! j9 t4 H3 z7 |
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( ~8 ^6 a, `: q$ n7 {5 Q( h3 H
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
! ?9 M9 E) p" y4 ~PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
3 a2 n! m3 h' ?each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.: W& p" |8 _3 ~
+ B! D. {4 j$ U$ E9 a" D8 k$ ?3 U* v: e
About the Urban Land Institute
7 \8 E# D+ h7 U0 ]
. r3 v4 t( I; l* W3 e2 b+ d6 C The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and: [7 O9 j1 N, P* @8 z
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
# p6 y, k( a3 u4 J! `leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
2 _; e( A9 _5 t! x! Kthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
5 E: a4 p3 A& hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
Q/ K# }4 g* @6 Q/ [1 ~! m$ Idisciplines.; ?1 P. Y9 v) J R# l
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
. d R" z, P& c3 t$ P8 i$ e) H5 cWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
# D4 T0 ?2 l6 K$ E5 g' k1 wCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is( l* `4 g* g8 Y9 g7 M {1 |
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be; h% j% N; b* d5 _ {" K
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
. }$ Q0 ]4 ~- v6 w$ ^4 f2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake: r$ K2 P6 ~% m: }8 C7 r1 q$ c( Z
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
# n( d7 n' L8 I" W$ M4 v- z3 R5 HPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
7 z% d: Q7 G) {call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! S- M9 y' c" F( x$ u- R/ ithe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 |( I, @" h( Z+ X( u8 c6 j
# ?5 I" s3 T1 v4 L
) w4 h) H9 O3 ]
4 S0 R5 p0 T. u$ w% _, B/ YFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,! }0 I% S9 k; j" Q. o
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
7 Z% _4 _4 g3 V4 k0 `http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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