Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
( V! X3 R8 w& _, jMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

  z! y4 l& k* @: s6 h0 U& V' L, i+ `Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
3 ^& b' M3 v7 |% ^: G
2 `1 n! x0 Z) C  j0 v) K9 d; u1 G1 FOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
$ i1 e/ O$ A5 c  Q
& C$ t6 ?/ ?( h2 a' _, `Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
: h  W0 p5 {/ q+ ]3 o3 C# f4 k
Jul 2007
NA
4 R0 x( i( t$ C, a$ y1 | 2328
717
% t9 g( f; Y. D( }! w$ \ 442,752
3 a' c- h2 k5 `" [: s' E 410,000
320
28
31%
1 C4 y$ K0 d% p, L1 b+ Z# R
Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
+ n) i  v. `( u" W* Y 442,817
409,000
4 b* q4 t9 k& W! @. B( o. R 328
: z% q- h- ~* O4 T, C/ G, q5 I 22
' _# A, }, ~/ @# m- b& c 38%
4 x; H+ q4 X2 R0 l- E$ i
- X4 P& N' E7 V5 E! r1 ZMay 2007
NA
2288
8 s  [  s/ k. W* { 1261
451,216
415,000
322
- t6 Z( r1 K4 K# o+ u# ^ 19
- j+ T- v5 Z  ^5 b. Q 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
0 r) h: }* n; W. t) t* R  J# }鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
+ R2 D! Q- S8 U1 u这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
# k. O0 y) n$ A$ R存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
: x6 K  k0 ?) Z& U  i鉴定完毕！

- z7 ]& Z8 Q: c/ i
* W0 [) q1 U/ F5 y# O2 a用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 z' U7 x6 S9 I4 w# @2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
2 @7 G! i; I  V0 \# D6 M3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ |# Y& J, l# @7 j5 {- @! g+ I存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

3 Z' @0 B) I0 u9 N$ b呵呵，太不专业了吧。
4 H1 S8 w1 C+ t, `
! H+ A; e& m# C, J' i新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
6 T: [1 p& m/ o, p
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
9 V' g& L2 d  S. F( w8 g6 `
8 j8 H: t# c/ e3 w这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
6 B, o1 c; m" HDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

+ c; `9 ]% ^  M3 {
' {% d+ t4 o$ \

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

( w; x' _! M8 ]  d( F

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
: V9 ]+ H2 s% gIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
) ]/ x' a2 X' l9 G( C; ogood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
8 m, |8 F& c0 t- w# L. i2 oIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 T( j  v7 D" FHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

1 l$ e: f8 ]  f) P) b' BI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
0 e, G5 K  m' p  IIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
2 j) o9 O1 ]% M2 i) n( ]" kNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
* t/ }9 e9 e  M' x8 y: N

7 v% L& o) b9 p  v( v' H% AI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3 U* C7 o" o, t' v! \3 r3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

' d9 a9 ~, x: m: I+ L下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


: W9 y& r, p7 w' ~& s: b
$ x7 q2 T3 q4 X3 `# Z只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
( s% y3 o# P' z7 T( e) H$ X" r看来，观察days inventory 更重要。