Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

  N) T0 y3 n: oDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
: [! S8 b! Q! g& L
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
! t; X9 J" R! f+ _) s, H& c! L
1 B) X! w1 G* y" f- P  ]+ cAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
) q7 {0 K0 d9 S5 ?: T3 g7 k  Y# `
. R3 F# ~3 |; V5 ~; d7 K7 CJul 2007
4 M+ G  R9 ~/ n0 j0 @+ q NA
5 o7 D; d% [* c' y0 ~4 l 2328
- Y& d$ w" a" |, q+ t! x 717
+ L  }" {7 g3 I5 k 442,752
% A5 F& {* g; B$ Z0 R 410,000
320
28
31%

5 c& b, z! K$ a& ^) i/ PJun 2007
, }! ~; D* k, T+ z) e' h$ Q NA
5 Z! ~9 W4 E" y, k7 [ 2661
1 x- d6 [7 Q% A4 _2 L5 P4 R& Q 1011
$ i% I+ o9 u0 _6 |: {* j 442,817
6 S4 k1 Z2 s  i: a  d 409,000
% a- b. ?! n+ h" I 328
7 s, ]5 ~( v5 \6 S  u5 u8 Q- d9 Y" D 22
  v$ ^, |0 J& f4 n2 _ 38%

6 r' S  U# L/ \7 W, p' n2 x" OMay 2007
- J$ i% q" Z* X/ p- Y% l NA
2288
% x6 l+ J- f: N$ v2 A4 Z4 r 1261
451,216
415,000
; v' x: N' [; r. b) M' d" q% v6 @ 322
+ P4 }# l+ J' O6 w 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
% u. v0 W$ t4 N' I0 G( f5 n4 w/ I存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
, g5 J2 g1 z. n& ]% y2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

0 T: g% @' j! q& k  B呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
1 U8 W' E/ P4 p! v
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

* ^. |6 x0 j, o6 @6 a# [7 O6 `这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
* A- C8 O9 z. O; q3 M# NDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
  I0 m4 M+ E+ T4 I( WThat is what i say half full or half empty.
$ |) q% {" w+ z$ V- ^good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
) W( ~( _  h: a$ g% UHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

: ?) t% r/ t1 {/ a5 Z+ M( `
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
3 A5 G- J" a: pMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
& b8 v. x0 ?4 UNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
* q7 @% @8 B8 \) c

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
( k$ N) r5 G$ k/ X7 O7 S2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
" _; f4 J0 o& R3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
. q: x) S4 z6 K7 l  a4 H( x看来，观察days inventory 更重要。