Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
5 O. x5 H3 O# N  V( q: j' gMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' V: r0 n: J- C# Y; Y+ ~Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
; c$ b! O$ O1 v) NNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

7 B8 l( v& Y; j4 u, x: zDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
/ @8 P5 K' I0 Y; P4 Z7 k; C: p/ n
) c7 b/ |% ?& a2 V6 G% ]Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
, ^, ]( w4 j2 H/ k* q4 j& j
' c5 Y+ q( P0 gAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
! k* c: c7 I) L; y 2328
717
0 ?; q2 |4 m  W# D5 C1 i 442,752
$ K' T! A3 _+ ^  o 410,000
320
28
+ ?+ [& b8 f. R$ {, | 31%
  d: }1 U; N! R( y; h" v3 Z3 T
Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
442,817
! u# `8 Y5 L+ o- Q) m 409,000
328
22
( c: @- J" r6 ^1 ^+ O+ H 38%

May 2007
) G# _/ u) q' U  Y& e& m8 [ NA
2288
2 d$ o% }8 F' k5 r( |: p0 Z2 x6 n9 b 1261
2 N# Y6 \* X" T- |( g: |! e! } 451,216
, d+ B$ w5 c+ C  P' M1 w4 E  D 415,000
2 [3 U& e5 Z5 V 322
: p% H0 g. u1 A' V, c7 y 19
3 v3 t1 |& K" d7 ]7 E0 n 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
+ D( e* X! r# \  _$ `这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
9 D' J4 L0 D' A$ u6 l0 ]存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

4 q+ A9 C9 T- _) g9 _3 j9 |
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
; ?9 P5 ?4 B; e7 o2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

2 M- T1 p% h- s; t$ J# z/ P. M' ]呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
9 D4 _+ c$ I2 G$ r
# p- F  e  U% g1 Y6 d就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
! W: |8 C5 P% n& U# s- x$ C8 \
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

0 d, u# @! F: G

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
% @- F5 j# \, ?/ ADon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
/ `* f. d5 e, w4 c' M# \How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
! v$ r  t/ r1 y6 O. y0 `- R$ Hgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
' t. h, l/ V' u# FHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

% j1 {' @4 [1 \: a) K
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
. E; I# i' |$ n3 ^; P) c4 oEdmonton Single Family Home
4 M" [! y" p9 m' }MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
0 N% N' b* i. N( l: W9 ]Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
8 {8 T; b, ?  M  I, I' VNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

, i1 O* e- b* R. q. J& UQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
9 g) A, p' `. |: V

' |) ], {) {6 i3 C7 b. eI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

% J( H, L( O% S) h

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
" p2 f  A2 O4 @: \8 y6 W+ I: }1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

0 h: y/ N5 I) t! ~
5 V: X( t4 d: `5 t. ^下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

: b3 T$ ?5 B" S6 o  _3 V- |

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
: V$ c, ?) ]# \1 |6 Y看来，观察days inventory 更重要。