Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
( X, t: X1 q; L+ t) J' RNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
& o$ Q" X+ O! a5 S% s3 k6 O8 BIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
# K! p# I. y% u! X4 R1 eTD can give you 4.2%.
1 b& ]" Z0 f/ R, Y" D  S% [BMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
. w' Y/ D' m# O- y% x(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
5 Q6 S, [5 h% K. NAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
1 b( O9 m& d$ s4 j8 a. eAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
! [; q& q5 A# SFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
/ ]3 _4 m9 D& b1 kRough calculation:
: S2 z4 |- G# u' M0 T3 r- Y. s$ Q4 tRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
# |) m; {( }/ y9 l& \/ t2 qBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
* W6 y/ @) w* hIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
9 g% M' n: v* w7 [) OBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
! X) H( g" R/ u
4 B3 b" }: h; b" k6 [% W5 |. \All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
* f+ x! ~" W/ x  bWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
% E! [% u" @( ?% j5 L8 nNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
6 |6 }2 F1 @+ [, v7 [# I! ZIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

( |, b8 D' e& f1 @! ]% X/ _
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
& ]) k& A- d! o2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
9 j/ Y' W8 z5 n如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
* A: m% k2 f5 |, e5 x, c- C而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

9 g  v0 m4 K; q. x! q" P, a呵呵，多打了个0。
9 i) [+ M# K, C" q! c  G, l
8 h2 @0 d( _  T! p5 j& ~多谢。

+ a$ g: ~0 |' ~把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2 ~/ b! z4 b0 d4 y' M( O2 s6 \2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
& c1 O# }9 g# r. m. ~2 k政府也会需要钱。 ...

. L3 p  o" Q8 I8 r- S& P但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
* b( |6 Y+ ^0 W' c. j8 ~
: J( O7 u+ p5 G* Q2 z' A现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
6 Z3 Q: m! n9 U如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
8 m2 Q- K! }* t, u4 H+ e, ^如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
# g8 ?) E% B9 Q& {4 ?* A) uRate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
! s4 S8 i+ o/ L* R2 a  sUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
0 W' r8 L0 b9 s1 |- p
6 U+ E/ y0 ]- }[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]