Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
; ^' r' Q  O. pIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
, D) T9 O2 s1 z- b+ |; `/ `7 ?+ PBMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
9 c* q4 p5 E8 k4 {! N$ d# A(Roughly)
! q* a4 k0 q/ ?3 x+ t, _If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
- S# z* D0 `% t' u: I  z( oAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
  \: f2 b+ L! C0 |% U5 y# b  bAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
" t7 b7 P9 R3 w, `From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
3 W: D/ C% L# ]Rough calculation:
; A/ l% ?) L- T4 Q# I+ QRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
8 b# @, P4 ]! E1 i1 ?- MDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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! X/ u/ {: [. U  v6 [1 YAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
8 S: U- j- h; s0 z/ A0 LWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
% j: ^4 d- P( `' S" [Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

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$ W- [: l: `, u6 Z7 Z
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
; F. a3 a: U' m, z  o( G2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
" o5 Z0 N8 D5 B$ r" B3 \* v如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
' T. A. X5 l( w% `$ F2 V而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

呵呵，多打了个0。
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, J$ K, y+ p5 A( j7 n( k多谢。

把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
7 r' f$ e3 X3 w+ m/ |4 M如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
6 w% m6 O7 P/ I; b! y政府也会需要钱。 ...

) R1 E- P. r, V4 t% C) v+ L3 p但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
7 G" N* r$ l# I& u# _$ X& L2 ?
0 P3 y" u& f. H6 e现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
1 D4 E; t) a: P如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
) ]- ]8 m- v) n1 H  b4 U/ {Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
# ^! D! v) a; |3 }USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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9 \+ j, E% L; v+ C7 O! V[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]