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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 & H w5 ~8 o+ D: p! E9 }
7 n( A3 Y2 B5 o! d+ C+ ]有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。! Q2 Y. @2 a+ g8 _$ T7 H
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this
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N& K/ J v+ F( g% Z( lin Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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% r1 \) E3 m: V1 W7 ^7 WTwo years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known. q4 @! ~% s$ N' d" J5 |
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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0 T% u4 \. C7 w7 L; LNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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# h# I! m4 B6 a1 D/ ~“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”- G3 J2 V6 M2 m# i2 ]
% m& I( ~7 W: d; W6 Y2 SCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”
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* z7 X0 P0 t/ h- b" q( EThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.! N/ S5 F) ~+ H
2 s! N3 }0 l* o2 yYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.9 T( @- `7 ]7 B
2 O1 }: K& M5 i) r' g6 h' `When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”4 u7 d. N5 A6 d) L3 a
# r4 z8 f& z3 q“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”' Y- @, {+ d3 G- D: x
' G$ a# J) c* r0 ALooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
: i/ y& X H/ L0 }# a* EAround.”
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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$ h% t8 P4 R3 Y" I$ ?. r3 ?( T9 Y) {Source: CNBC3 h% e, B( H. P ?% y! {
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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![3[2].png](data/attachment/forum/201704/01/161128c2yxjn80kj4krtpw.png "3[2].png")
发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
