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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com4 m; u0 T) n1 S$ n
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3 X0 _7 T9 }% d1 C0 m9 uThu, January 11, 2007$ m4 g! O! _4 }$ ^% K
8 w7 F6 m6 |" LPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
" u# `* s) j+ D0 OBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN* p' `. s+ H' j! P
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' X1 S2 T) v3 tThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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7 Q4 m" B5 K- e2 s, f, L4 F; CMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 9 i, f ~* B0 _( K1 F; M
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ) Y& c: d" \1 r% y& ]$ }2 V3 L L0 P% D
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) G5 U5 T6 t5 @* M6 k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." + R3 Y5 H5 c+ Z3 @, L- U. E6 Y
3 k( c3 X' H5 e7 r9 Q/ HShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. . w4 m1 W5 W5 ], K O
3 V: Z9 ~& g9 S: F6 ~* N7 z- a* p"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. , z7 O+ K1 u- I! ^+ C* a
/ Q& s% d% M/ DCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 4 y0 g2 r4 R4 _# h
4 f! l8 f2 Y1 N/ G- g"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. + b( l _0 s2 g5 q1 u
, x7 j) F) F9 B"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ( ^# F `- f' u5 d: O6 A: I
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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: v& Z8 {) Z7 \( H2 r" @0 J"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ) ]6 N+ K1 U7 {: w8 @
" H8 D" V" @; V( xNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 4 W; I9 A0 j! g
1 R" t: n3 D1 t$ B7 C' i$ ~/ n# tExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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7 x0 K5 \; t% c( l4 T+ y+ b& dOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 9 e) {0 S" N' ?- P
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 4 H+ T5 P0 |) }; V2 ?, b. [
5 k* [1 A1 e, d5 s8 E/ _* {% mYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 4 m/ \9 ~+ i9 j1 ?
5 ~3 a0 u- k. y" k' s3 U"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. $ J [, S- T9 B3 X/ B
. `0 _6 u& i( e; N7 RLet the good times roll. + f/ w9 V9 L h( ~0 @
" J1 F) C; N1 p$ d, Z- NPrevious story: Bottom Line y' G. ]. u+ T$ Q( ~( p
Next story: Building permits hit record2 U- ]& E- E! i+ S v4 d! x
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