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Thu, January 11, 2007- f# b' T2 |2 s$ U8 J
N% V" w4 N; _2 oPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007" O) g% R- h- [
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN% Q ^1 M* w7 p: a; r7 ?; \
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, P: G Z; W# x: @3 jThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 3 b: T2 O0 p! C8 {4 k# H. U+ ^$ J
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 4 Y5 B* V. i3 H4 P
0 n, z5 G7 r3 o- GBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. % { o/ C" f! w% d* l2 G% ~2 Z& }0 I
0 V1 M" K2 ?7 F+ VDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ' i4 o. r5 f7 | ]7 C0 V6 r" ]6 w
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. # b6 g( Y* [, S
+ R9 {/ s+ K# x6 d3 o/ F"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. & A7 v; v" T9 A6 W. }6 v1 C* x) E8 T! T* v
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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: D) R, k" T& Q( ?"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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2 u) q! z% [7 @- P' j7 HStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 4 L% [% z. v+ x" c" g7 H. x7 u
B& G- G X' U: o* x"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. & `( ~, p; y* z
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. $ v2 K' d* B5 [) I# J- s2 E; _
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1 x' B) T( B! G- E5 K. zHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." % l k2 X: W$ F7 a- ~+ F: N
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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: r e! N# }# t' BOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 7 [! [2 P; e! r2 K; F q
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. " e# A0 p6 H Y" G0 Y. h
( {; k1 y+ J) ]! a"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 9 P7 _5 ^* Z' ^- \5 ]. @+ |% {) J+ K
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. : f$ z' w& {- V, ]. V
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. : c; g4 m! [# k7 r9 |
1 M0 W) L* D- a8 A# R* P* l9 |"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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Q+ W7 i. _2 _+ D3 x8 l7 `" cPrevious story: Bottom Line; w0 o, O* [: y7 _& e
Next story: Building permits hit record
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