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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com. {. \# J* b) d( Y3 d
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Thu, January 11, 2007. J% j/ l3 {% }' f
9 ^3 s6 y2 i. V6 s$ y; EPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20071 i& L) A6 a6 z' e3 e7 d0 w% L7 m
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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. Q1 y, G" S7 X+ \They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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' d+ O/ c& |' U Z$ X7 b; PMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ; D( V M0 M8 \: T4 ~6 J6 r- E5 V/ l' S
$ S% Y: y+ _ t X; jBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. : B+ |! L* _/ t& I9 [, D: ]
) F8 G# l2 o$ T" U- S1 f8 @Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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5 l, n- C5 F; V! m; k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ! V: X" z! V9 U. s5 E7 x- w; C5 w
3 l& R5 t' n; p: U2 q. k"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." . S X* Q% ~2 }: ~( K4 ]% P; B
# e( U$ T) k" Q4 D7 U3 J/ NStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 5 Z* ?+ v$ W* O3 }1 `
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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6 u6 y0 ?0 E9 p n" p9 |"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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0 l# e' [! N) G$ e- o" J* ^"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 H- y3 p# ]. z# p) [
6 _% C6 Z: Q9 z( e4 |Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. & ]0 P# ]. Y8 J9 g9 a8 U
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. $ T1 l# k0 ?, C! d% ]
$ w% [5 {8 N! S! g" z2 ^"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. " |) K; @, f* @: T
$ Q. ~; H! Y" s$ A* H3 g# ]Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line0 A' D! o: K( ^; _: F
Next story: Building permits hit record
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