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* L8 {" i0 c& Y2 X9 r6 @1 ` Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com6 X e& K, v# |% T w ?
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Thu, January 11, 20079 t1 T0 N6 w" V2 X5 e) R$ z0 T# ?
$ l6 u B2 Y$ d/ r2 cPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
f2 ]+ ?$ }0 IBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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, a0 v/ E' l& S/ w8 aThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. * Z2 w( P, K8 r6 K0 n
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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/ P0 v' O3 g- f; `. B0 [8 gDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 0 m* u3 v* m* {: M. L o; Q! u
$ g# f, e+ X6 _. }( q( n: H+ w'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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c, @1 j& E9 T) M; PShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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( w. T+ d; c3 ], N"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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; Y% A( {5 D$ W& `Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ' L7 A" I b9 r& Y
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." + `" V4 Q5 N6 F& E6 R
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. . z% M" {% t P$ K( d0 J0 L+ o+ s
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. % P1 G: d+ a9 |/ H6 i
) U% u; K6 w6 o$ ]. R3 z"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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/ P1 _- w+ U2 k+ j; M' JHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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7 z4 y5 E3 r4 l0 C8 W9 O, J, e! bOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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; G7 X `3 v/ T6 ZHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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! J6 f# K9 h3 k9 B& G"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. {1 S! o. E4 g4 v
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ( w j a* Z4 O( e' s5 _
* V7 P% w3 o; ^* R5 DYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ! o$ _ |/ E, u1 Y6 U
7 t2 z) w) D' j5 J' x: f1 U, JLet the good times roll. 2 f6 [' b- \& W1 L. Z
* Q! \% E5 U5 Q9 b. D* gPrevious story: Bottom Line E) V8 l }! n- q7 d0 U
Next story: Building permits hit record8 U4 j; X$ ~4 Z" j0 i6 x2 \, b
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