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2 l% J* i+ q! J+ d9 RThu, January 11, 20075 X+ H! d2 ]$ D" j0 B# Q5 q
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007+ Z8 D; P+ P) X2 _; B1 [
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. # `& n, T5 t* K+ M
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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7 s$ o+ R9 r- v9 B) U( D' XBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. * v& C7 d' f7 @) I8 l
; Z: m: w( V3 \7 a0 Y8 v) I* FDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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1 h6 O6 Z7 u3 D) k: K"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 5 R5 V/ {5 i6 k1 c" z! ?8 H
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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, Q1 A6 o3 g5 E/ b1 V) W0 q"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 8 ?( f: U. g7 ~, o& T- w4 W& _
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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" d& H0 i6 c. M0 n$ `% z"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 2 J+ ~. g, g( g! L. @% W- W: N
1 g( M* G) H7 z% `Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 6 n: H0 F# ~6 p& ?8 P' r
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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" U, s3 ^5 E& t/ y5 O8 UNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 4 d' _$ K- ]4 w# k. h' o4 J: r& R6 Q
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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0 L" `% d0 c9 m0 ^- ^2 d2 p; A/ h5 H& D. \So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 8 x/ N: l" s2 }6 Z; |5 z% |
# b% G6 X0 U1 w0 n& f- N5 d"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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0 v5 `) a; ~9 i/ q( i( @4 TLet the good times roll.
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# g) h- j; V+ W+ T( m. YPrevious story: Bottom Line
5 ~; e z9 [6 K7 zNext story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
