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6 U: Q# t( s# ~ Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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1 R4 _! \# `9 w. @# J4 Z, xThu, January 11, 2007
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1 Q1 ~3 |3 \# F [+ O2 ^Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20072 r) Q& u5 J" Q5 ^
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. # F" @. q; s3 h5 }* J
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 8 Q1 G/ P6 x( K+ l% ]3 r. s
" a1 _! f+ n) N/ Q M% _6 BDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ; I- r8 Y$ x- C* t5 R# V5 O
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' / y B, D, O+ G
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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x3 c6 @9 p) H. o; XShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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8 ^: y5 p$ X' e+ OCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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: l7 Q0 h9 ~ [( {/ Z"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 4 t, Z, [; b" c9 R- x' Q8 Q {- A! z
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 4 K' A2 t. B2 V( t! Z+ d
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. * o& x" ~- q: p5 G' i4 K
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8 P: V3 r1 g. ^" [$ SHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." $ d& q0 n2 U1 T: L# C) Q
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 6 N; d4 H* L. ?: y# s
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. / O D& Q& |& Q% m, R: E% P5 T7 s
! d4 q( U! d& E" \- HHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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3 A# Y Y7 D- c$ J+ G"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ! k' G0 P( y6 Z2 t
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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9 o! b. _7 S6 j! MYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. $ v: u$ X2 F) @9 R* t; P$ G4 i
* R# i+ i; S. o9 j/ d"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. / B; X7 ^# X) H. w* `' L
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Let the good times roll.
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) O r/ z: s. n7 A5 F0 j2 UPrevious story: Bottom Line
% ?5 W: A. k: aNext story: Building permits hit record9 H( T5 d: U# |: g0 j+ r8 N
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