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1 P2 c9 G3 f6 G! c0 B4 O- B Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com0 \3 U; @" t; ]! t* X2 I
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! A- p7 n; Y; p" p7 [4 D7 W# _0 Y# e In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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, {) I" {( V; V" n& c! VThu, January 11, 2007
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4 k7 ^% A( {% N; m! ?0 l/ LPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20076 Z$ i8 m4 V1 ]: c% _
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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) U _7 x5 v! _6 k$ N, v6 u3 FThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. # w2 x$ j: n9 h+ [ Z9 ? i
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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% E4 ?9 \! m" Z' i; |But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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9 J6 N2 X' z6 iDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 9 r9 K/ [$ m! b' r! W' L
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 4 D) u7 }( e2 x: g0 {2 m
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. , a, A4 N }- J% F
" k8 y+ `4 O8 n$ p8 r"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. # m$ ]1 J5 r" w
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." : c1 g1 S# m: c9 I, e0 c5 b
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ) x/ n [. i; K5 k2 \/ M. P2 G
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. + h0 {. i7 B e) w
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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. C8 `0 ~5 f5 x5 S) v* QExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 5 j! ~3 Q" Q5 \: n
- Z$ R+ l/ n. G; C4 h( JOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. / v9 T2 o7 N* @0 W
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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4 h. B# m8 x8 ^"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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9 X' [. I# {7 P" {7 oYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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4 s' }- V7 o( J4 A"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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1 g1 O2 M2 e# ?# lLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line' d0 [6 b6 S0 G- G$ q
Next story: Building permits hit record }& ?0 }+ K6 y, H
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