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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable % \' e" d! P1 P" x& P0 ]
' B8 ?( a8 ~1 U4 q- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
: k7 ?4 p( L* T; L _ M& ]
; {, C% G6 g4 k" ^. G TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market T# c8 e$ J3 w: j' Y
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third5 Y" p7 c9 ~% Q, R) Q' A
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic+ }) j4 [/ d. d$ J$ Z
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit& n; S1 s, N. G r- I% M
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and- v6 l6 A; H' t o6 S' X2 W
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,4 a* V: a; s9 o: n9 R. h
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal! L1 t/ `3 R0 E$ u$ Q) h/ N6 q
LePage Real Estate Services.
x7 b7 V& @; l; Y% w2 j4 l5 l/ P; O
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters- f2 S. i/ I9 L7 { T4 Z8 O" }
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic/ o2 j0 K9 I6 p
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
3 ?9 x+ L- t( m; s6 ~sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the1 b4 X; o, Y7 I9 b9 [. F
residential real estate sector., s& k/ @8 P8 J6 u
5 P0 i& F9 J" a+ z
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
# o9 e+ `% X, h3 n4 V; qoccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
0 x$ S# N) \" _$ T$ Y+ M% byear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5626 e0 d3 Y1 p3 \4 u$ i
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380: r, `0 {/ { C% C1 a3 [
(+13.2%).8 |. ]7 M, M2 t) J# B7 C' |: s1 z
! e6 ?3 D8 j5 [1 W' I v( _
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
; `' E$ L* W6 M2 v! r. Wduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
8 {6 }) A7 e, Wfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
. K% f) [3 @- Z; \poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
9 b. x+ x& O/ f8 r" ?" ?5 Qpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.- x( s3 ~2 A9 t; k7 ?
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
D5 D! U' u$ |! F. Pwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy; V$ b6 L& `5 d
balanced market."
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* a% }( L m( V: y: q Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
# b8 Y3 F; S! I& vconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
" S2 `" u, F% F7 Y" V% xto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued' W6 Q, X) e+ \5 d0 V0 s( l: E
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
4 @, D& B, F5 w: t. \8 P! venergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
# P4 |1 F! W4 N9 Nmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
' Q( U. m+ y2 x# R5 \! ebreaking price appreciations." ?& @0 U# \2 y1 L6 m) h( `9 F
+ u* Y5 w4 G7 f b4 T4 p& K
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding3 W' k% X) d7 E( X7 K. @ F: U& X/ a
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
- f. i' F* W1 S+ X% Klargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
' |) u0 X2 I$ z
& O- L$ W0 {' F% A3 | In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid' ]1 v5 _ x- }1 s' ?) f
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
/ r# P/ c. V+ M0 Q8 q# u* o0 ?confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off: R( j" s+ m7 l* B! k
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
! g1 _; \8 P8 L/ U/ O" H, VIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
: J* {) G9 Y) F* igreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of6 N8 U* l5 l6 V1 t9 Q% u
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
+ V1 |# B8 {; O9 e' h/ C* }( P6 Z% `9 s+ _' c8 y
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing8 Q: I6 e, B/ N# ?# E6 f1 i6 I2 s h+ ~% [
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
* A. P! Z0 U4 F7 i; A6 Afinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
6 o& _2 o% Y# M2 a7 Y* xare markedly different than those found in the United States.
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$ ~2 z7 M' \* M: D+ W Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
# p( G9 |" b/ t; g1 U( vAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
: k3 h1 i/ b: cfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the% W. R6 F g# l: e( q9 ~
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general( J, Y! q; A3 Q( N3 d2 s- M2 [+ |
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
+ K# Q2 h* [, {8 Y% |downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and- n1 @& i& v# o
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
- H2 S8 y. [/ ^: c6 n5 Lmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."- M% C2 c4 \& a& l$ q3 O7 M
9 ^# i9 W% r6 h! O y$ z! V
<<7 K; z6 d+ O0 \! u& l" K
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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( Z: D, j2 v7 E" }5 `
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in8 C9 ~* V1 G" I
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
0 d7 M9 O' W0 V% T. Xof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
/ {' Q9 }' l+ \* j+ I9 Jlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
2 t! u- D) s7 R& M+ _renovations.
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1 ]* T" B% c" A! { a+ O8 I" L The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight' ?5 v+ O3 Y" Q7 ^. c0 F
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation) p! {# L' [+ P X% M9 E+ n
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and3 Y" h, x2 s }& l
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
; O9 y; u2 o0 Q! u$ J1 p p7 c2 G6 b" I/ s. V' v
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer# @6 v$ O+ v+ T, ?) i
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
8 C3 w# }* o& k- r& f& g& J' h' F: mquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new0 g* B! [6 F, F& B1 V) E# ^, s
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
5 U+ s: u+ y3 y' N: Tto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes- |% z) W* | `8 R, D
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.8 o, e& Z( \+ ~2 W" V/ \; W
, T9 V4 C3 P9 T4 p7 Y) a+ t In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced3 K$ T5 z2 D+ u- Z4 ~& L+ @
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
8 p/ `3 C+ @9 S6 p, nhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers# \# y+ j5 k1 Q7 H/ L
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
# g4 y6 h) t2 _dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing1 e& G4 ^& J" \1 Q5 X9 s
buyers with more options when looking for a home.1 B7 A2 K) d0 ]# \, Z6 \- W
: J0 p3 d! ~2 z0 S q# M# a+ |
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
/ t9 J" r T, I$ n7 E0 V k" v; K# j% Camong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
3 j) W0 p/ B. S, u9 W5 ^priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,& L( ^0 _: ~4 s6 N1 l+ t6 |7 @
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
8 H2 @! T! L3 G' }. c: ffew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
6 V. @6 O- O' z6 q2 y' z( b4 x& q7 Z; u) O0 {8 l$ P5 j9 Z
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
" p& U- ]8 m( Yprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory+ p7 R0 r2 T! m8 M
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
o8 j% N3 W6 @; p1 S j! `) y) Mfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,& N% I& b' t. a0 `3 \4 p5 g
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the; v$ m9 L: {3 ^" D3 m6 r
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
. i/ V) n K" V C* Xmaking a purchase.9 c) w9 b; m- }. k
% W, K/ L, t8 v( O- p Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
/ h! Y! V4 e4 s; Z) t/ {# I5 W, cmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong! G3 }4 T$ w1 s9 `! _
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
. P" E9 i3 p; \ ~4 H% ycentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting6 J* u1 J; i, m6 q3 K5 C, q, g
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown2 d$ C* y$ g+ b, g% ^% b
amenities.
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1 P. \/ B* O% K. s% k! z The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels7 I6 N- k: r; P5 x$ w, H) j3 h( f) S
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
/ K. y; H9 q7 P* e8 _across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
1 B' t+ K' L& |' Bcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been& x" g, J. {- _
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle+ E* F" V: C( M7 Z+ _2 d1 E
residence, rather than for investment.
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6 K; @+ D# r- G9 F/ T4 e9 j The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
3 e. o; K( b* Jhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
~" a% x; ~+ X0 ^in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer; a8 A* ]' ~6 g8 R y
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
8 c/ }; P3 q O6 k; z3 brate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
* F5 Y6 @( u! X) j9 Y8 k. G! ?the market.
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3 D" g. j. `- ? In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through9 D4 Q1 f1 w$ k. l h/ A. s2 Z# k
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
: h2 R7 e% D# Z& k- rAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring/ m. L5 i' ^- ^, H
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
, u t) D% c4 U) n, @to the shortage of available inventory.; ?3 Q$ C! _ G+ k
! l& u1 m$ y- g- j, W7 A& T, A Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its9 F5 Y: \3 r8 \0 r/ K
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
* h2 ~2 |6 L* ]& D! U |9 Xvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
: P' h' w& W9 s& [+ [. tstruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
& F1 D4 k2 Q9 k8 o; O& e) Qin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
( d1 ]1 [# j& j% E C$ C2 hunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that$ F' l; _- U. Q* _& I$ Z. J& {
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
6 `3 j+ V0 \1 e# zprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
5 ~! B1 g" C) H" l* oseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
) B/ j( N2 ^" z4 {$ p1 Cbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.# q: \- f$ R* s2 w+ f( Q
: j1 v9 b: a P8 E Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
6 I; J9 S, p2 ]5 K' H% t. xas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton/ X9 @* j. i, q
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,* Z5 u% l% o6 K' D& J. n7 V8 d
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
+ G/ E" ^+ `& Y) }, r5 \increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
6 q' v# K. J- O- Xin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly! F4 W9 W# k# A( G
towards the end of 2006. ' M& e8 p) H9 W' \% H
5 W# C7 ?7 } P) b. kWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
$ Y! U5 N9 v3 w5 _* Xinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable; t8 H0 S, f/ l- g* K
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
+ i2 r2 K8 N* b! G/ ^group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
. W) t' W/ ?8 h5 z4 n% e$ h4 Yforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added3 u1 H% w. v1 A, w
pressure on tight inventory levels.
- c4 m' ]+ M" c) s5 d% s4 h3 B# s/ V
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic$ T* e: o3 @! j) U. p k+ p
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people% {- K6 a6 y+ ~/ M; y6 A$ R
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
4 \: _% j1 x/ w8 i' gwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching% {; _8 q% h: i, a
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
1 U# ], f- A" r) @2 \5 z7 a5 z4 r& x/ b$ E) d3 _- ^1 {# P; e
<<
5 p0 u$ c& I: ?7 M; L, Q+ `4 g Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 20067 S. c/ V1 W- M8 E) @8 l
/ C& f9 C3 E4 u" @' j0 @! t T8 \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------; {6 s2 O/ e1 M. N4 H# n
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey& N/ M9 t( B [$ z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------& v' B2 Q3 z0 n3 h; m" g
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q31 h% ?" u0 [ i) ~ }
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
0 q; x) a+ K' z/ T+ @3 ] -------------------------------------------------------------------------) t# J& s, |: A: Q" W# R' ^
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
5 t) V3 E8 n& S' F" p -------------------------------------------------------------------------
' R. c) |6 j+ c4 p Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
. k7 n" s8 A9 f -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 G& H) I' z2 v6 C2 P Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
( z) T4 y8 v L% B6 S -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; V4 A, n b+ }- z# q Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
. L$ a3 f* T; i: z" g) I, Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 f. {$ ?2 ]- n
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3332 u* w: ^* E ~9 ?8 I4 N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' D* {3 k+ R9 N4 f# f5 ?! b Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583& R3 g, _( ^( ]- H3 s2 C; j
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
. s' x" F4 V4 U4 S5 H: V5 Q Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1850 b8 x, y; A# D6 Z Q3 l) i) J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* Y; U: Z1 j, j% ?
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250* k2 q' h- G3 X& e! h s# G4 o/ F$ u7 t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------( M3 N- a. C% I7 z9 |2 S, }
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
( v% b% N- |7 @, f1 k c3 U9 A5 o# J& Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& C+ ^9 W, F( L' ^( b6 j% H8 I Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707' L9 C8 J, J" n2 p" ]# g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# |( L# u6 r8 l) l) K Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
5 Y3 Y Z5 k9 o7 a* s -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 T6 A3 H5 x' e* {7 s5 d Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3891 `$ e4 H: k: ^- _) `
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 \9 U, Q0 u& h( ]' B& H) ^ Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714+ ^" `; b; O# b" f, O% i' g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! g& c6 W) T2 U8 s$ d; |5 _ Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
- P+ H5 S* Q+ O; i0 Z+ ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 R( d6 {5 ]* ?) T) w Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
; o' `6 V/ k( R' @7 Q1 f -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Z8 t# w; Q, g3 C National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
; C1 @) V: ]" ] n -------------------------------------------------------------------------! o* F! y' O1 X6 m6 E
" x1 P& a! B' B7 b -------------------------------------------------------------
/ F; n7 g6 z2 z Standard Condominium5 \% L5 n0 C' @% B
-------------------------------------------------------------
7 N- Q# q$ k( P3 F 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
( h2 E" ?7 P: x, Q4 | Market % Change Average Average % Change- r& V' [; o m
-------------------------------------------------------------
% b6 u& {2 a% C4 K9 M Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%7 @! h/ T, [; G
-------------------------------------------------------------1 e. g+ G$ c$ X; j+ b# k
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
" _" B' o! s, Y6 _6 Q. H -------------------------------------------------------------8 w _. q' _9 b
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
d) [ T# r) b$ {2 A9 W) w, C -------------------------------------------------------------
+ r/ _5 ^4 R8 Q6 `+ g! J# ~ Saint John N/A - - N/A
- d7 d( x+ V1 N5 k) T" W -------------------------------------------------------------
" D2 P2 u x/ H( V& H9 Q6 W St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
+ c0 Q, Q9 A- l& w. B9 Q -------------------------------------------------------------
6 J8 F' Y1 u5 c" N. ?. h/ S Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%/ ]/ N2 e( e% ^; g9 H
-------------------------------------------------------------
/ X0 n* T1 I/ C }% E# E' N Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
. a' q: H5 l0 Y+ t% w( w' y -------------------------------------------------------------9 t1 [9 R' d& p Z2 X) ] _6 S
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1% f* W! @) r* l
-------------------------------------------------------------" n; m$ x" |/ m4 q
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
1 R4 w5 }( ~7 a( k' P" L# U -------------------------------------------------------------
* [3 z `' D9 I1 z; c Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
7 d& V- l" o& Y -------------------------------------------------------------+ F1 d( `& t5 J8 d1 r5 M" k
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%& r/ L$ R( C& C7 m M' Q0 N' o! k/ q
-------------------------------------------------------------( B" O5 ^$ n% t; w9 f3 E$ e( v
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%9 z' s! }# h+ @- o) F
-------------------------------------------------------------) q9 A' \# @" e- @2 M' T& Z
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%, D! M- V5 J! k1 w$ S* [$ R- G
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ p. D- p0 k1 H" t, S: M; r Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
6 C" m% Z0 L9 S' T- `5 u4 ~) C -------------------------------------------------------------
# o$ a% _# T9 T- o Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%1 ]6 n: Y' B" `8 ?
-------------------------------------------------------------+ b# u- M% V4 J. k
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
$ |& E( Z ^! C( x; s! b -------------------------------------------------------------; w) T, ? p8 [$ z" g
>>
7 Q. t/ N* S; w1 V7 f
1 l" j9 N! V1 a Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined" T5 _! j8 I+ ^" R! J
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint7 E* s. j6 I: O* U1 D
John and Victoria.$ F/ b+ ^0 |. X' d0 G( x8 O
, @. @1 F8 t+ Y% |* G
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most; h8 {5 H1 N4 m1 e
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of8 H, y% c m6 w3 n2 M4 `* O
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
, J% |/ V. `' V0 ^* R5 ?# \) ireferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
& B2 G0 I- l" B) ftrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
" {. O; B/ n! s2 J; r4 Hacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
% b! _# n" i# q3 O5 p3 Savailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current) B$ {. ]- p3 h, t0 ~! {+ e1 C5 s
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable3 N: F9 ]3 S. K7 V) l' a, r
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
- T/ N7 K# B4 ?" l+ V% yNovember 15, 2006.
* W+ B0 U; e" M1 H. a! j5 G Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of: U6 c2 H7 H2 U/ U1 a4 W( v! P
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
( M/ Y4 g4 f; Nprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is% D/ F5 ^1 u8 f' H& R; }4 s
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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