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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
6 X2 t4 F: e; binteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it5 P1 V1 x" C2 U. K& \! ~# \- _
will be going.9 H+ [9 i1 S: X; ~

+ G8 J) _" G, G- L# KIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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2 y" O/ K' j7 Z% _  ^% j1 yThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by, T/ q3 s2 I( u3 }' X# A; Z9 U' Z
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
' }: ~- \9 J- E0 d4 [, G: c- K) I4 B$ yindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
1 f1 C5 q2 ?! E; q$ VWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
7 O* a1 C1 Y  L; a: r5 ?& g) Vvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by+ q  L3 y1 I( R! K/ m0 ]
how much.
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, o( B! g: r1 b4 e$ _For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
: J' V. O- _1 o! y) |Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
: g2 n8 }3 N6 N1 l1 x& K# w0 ~strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
9 ]8 l; E& h; Q  p; r" \% e+ a+ Jfindings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -: q: s! L# N; \) Z
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best: f2 Z0 r# k5 X- O( d! q& c) Y
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact  e, y0 R& M7 @+ ~% v6 v0 ]6 \
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the& f% t$ e/ p& m& s  r
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
1 K+ ?9 A' S; `! g0 m/ H4 Tthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we; P1 v* w8 F. k/ |) s
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
/ V# ]; A6 d, VThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
5 r% p  N) E& l3 Lincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six* ]0 A& d. v% g5 Z; W+ `
months.  
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
- H9 u( h" O0 X6 A. Ocaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
* G8 @3 N7 _7 K& {3 |" E2 Qfundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
; I, n  B: S7 `the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait5 p. g- I% }3 `* v
until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all/ U- n, r( E% b
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
$ V4 d( T* L/ ^" h1 a0 ]( q1 c* z2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June$ Y& @6 E6 Q* {" y- u
2006 New Housing Price Index for:( a! e% d- A% D; N5 y9 A; n
- ]& f; B( B" n- `! Z, }
Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%8 ^8 ]4 }( ^$ E8 p; a$ ]9 y
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%9 u2 {- }! K: B3 c6 I0 ?
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
3 Y! T- D: Z2 K' VHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
! J2 Z0 e" p% K, ISt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
4 F$ c# r8 L  J1 S; P: |9 nToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
% G, k9 N1 C4 }" E, L, d" qOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%$ N3 l, z3 p& l0 O
% X/ E: d/ J& m, {
Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing+ p7 s8 E) B- R/ D
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!2 w1 D3 @& S8 h7 l& J% D
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
$ v  b6 X1 W; L  r7 t6 U- c5 pbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
1 k1 S$ Z+ _8 Z3 x/ q% ^9 Fonly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are+ n6 m% u5 T5 B& }* D
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to* R5 f9 P, P( G' m
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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$ ~+ z1 ?& i! H/ j0 ~) M7 PHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong# p7 _) B' J8 @/ I% Q2 q  O. B) x
fundamentals:
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
% `& ]' j& A- F& o% e$ ~- @9 WCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth: d4 Q) p7 B4 u! q3 j- Y8 y( q3 k! q
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and* @$ {: `8 u0 |' I
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
( F4 i2 _4 [' `2 H3 ]: r0 P& Q4 q) aworld.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
1 e% Z8 b- v6 ]the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see( E$ a( h1 C  x6 o* c: Q
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment( d1 Y, @; t) v  W( Q
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
& x- L! [, @, S, E( z1 TDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after+ e- y1 q: N" U' G  E) l. ]
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest/ V( ^0 _! z% k
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
0 x+ Q" |4 P8 y( L8 L7 Z5 Nproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
+ g0 |; @( G1 [: Lpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can- T' U, c/ {, [" t# Y  u
beat it for long term investment.' S8 d. J; u! Y* q

6 }) |. z0 {6 {& H8 D8 a6 l/ G# s4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
* T: ^: ~: }8 T' l2 M# va sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
/ v& l! F$ H7 c' j- F5 ~' icreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
0 q! m5 e6 \" m% ?9 |"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since5 Z7 b1 g4 }' Y& L$ f. E' H/ N
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... 5 C+ @3 k3 A/ D/ d6 l( b! F
& H+ f. ^% u% \$ t8 y9 `
Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the% u. ^6 c3 n( C
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
* q9 t0 e% I$ L* peconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
; V# ]% r/ E0 U8 X+ Tthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
" \9 ~' T# \+ W( |  q4 Orepeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with4 Y' r5 x6 n; x% r& G: x9 d
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at. {' Z; V, r  z: Y5 B6 i& I2 E
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
* I, M- Q& R, C9 ]  q- N$ F* Gof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
+ i) Y  A- W  Xwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong* c# B- f+ v' V' }' |% n3 K3 y
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
0 G3 V3 v3 O- t5 `'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
# ]4 P" }$ m. r1 I3 f+ P! L6 oyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
* P' z# F2 ^! b' C0 g4 x/ ?0 s0 h) f* Fopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
  ~8 q( L1 h5 Q1 r  y! E  i'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
5 N, V# C7 }% eand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.' s4 j( h% k6 c  ~/ }; n  w* B# W
# Q$ C4 Q& ~; [

' `! C+ b# Y% C. l% r3 TCapital Gains Comparison.7 l; V0 _5 v* ]! Z9 ~/ y& m
2 ?+ C1 z! y' e% n0 O$ V
KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial$ L0 e% K- I6 j
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see
) w6 g6 U) w7 R$ `% n/ T. e1 @how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:/ x. a( M1 L+ ~1 e" V" i
1 r7 |# [9 r# G; L! D- ~4 I: S! J
BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%9 T9 ^9 G6 Q3 w4 h. D
AB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
) M8 [$ s- N' o. M0 @SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
, C) u- w1 f$ J6 U" H3 d6 CMB . . . . . . . .  23.2%' z/ A( _  U. ~, l8 ^% N' {2 U3 o
ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%2 L5 h" ]( {* l3 y
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%1 j9 y6 o# o7 e# |. v
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%0 f  j- {+ Z0 P) [! Y, s! z
NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%
! M7 j! E7 y) e0 ~# m; T6 h! `PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
+ z  \2 r. b7 g/ i6 I$ m0 q* UNF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term! B1 l/ `3 w$ z3 N' p
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of" e2 F; {( F' o1 L' G4 g, }* b" ?
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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) V" ^; l, W7 I! FOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the" p  f- l* z1 ]. [6 Y
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of; X5 a1 U. A; V6 h* M9 I+ {3 V
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
% s& D5 W+ R. C3 d) @events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion3 ?1 H2 W$ n% q1 H
when you take action as a full REIN Member.* K* N; ?- ?  B& Q

& h) g  x1 {) {' {4 A6 N1 @Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
* t; B. m" n6 N: J. eresults in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
+ R8 Y! E3 L6 w/ ]: w3 E: Q6 GNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
5 R; j% e. `+ l8 ^& \# k0 S: |" r
5 g' d, N) t! F7 T
0 m9 @1 x. ?1 L# x9 G  ?) DThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very! ]/ r& [1 i. Y# _0 j
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
9 r# P8 c8 R" @* s3 hwill be  ...
! C7 P7 `* L) Q6 ^

! H: n$ a1 C, N4 L, Q/ @) E谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good. - Q1 s" f$ D0 a4 p, x  M, o

! Q0 M+ N9 |$ Khttp://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49# j- p  p3 E7 n* F6 n
' C9 e" f0 a1 e* M0 h
You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.2 ^2 r: ~/ `7 w& W" W

- f" [& g8 ~* S4 phttp://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。
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; L9 b$ x! x, L7 Y7 z; n4 G( A***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****$ x) x9 j! F8 |* e2 j& I- o

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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
2 o: D7 k0 p- }# [( e, d8 yNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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( b/ U3 E+ @6 {$ K' w. t8 Z4 p2 s1 n* O, p$ Q
With close to 3,000 net new people into# U: l$ p) F/ R& s
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
# X8 S6 V7 g! l3 J% bsaw the New Housing Price Index ...

/ Y8 |: O7 s7 R9 T6 R3 ^, d* M[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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