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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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9 X* u! A3 ?2 lThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
4 ?, }- f7 c& |! d1 I; sinteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
5 N4 k8 M$ t* ~3 I" P6 awill be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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, C7 E- k- w2 Z" w; FThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
: n: n9 ?, j# p) ]; Wsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an7 M9 o- L/ B/ Y" D5 M8 F
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
+ B5 V- u3 v, Y* W3 qWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
6 Z& s+ Q6 }2 Y, c* i* Vvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
" ]9 D! f" k& Z" u( c& X8 Ohow much.$ q. \; c; p+ ]& \3 \! u3 k, Y1 t7 t) j
9 ^$ i+ `6 g9 l5 f) s0 W3 nFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,; a) I& J: V# o
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
; @8 I/ p" i" k8 X3 Cstrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
$ o" ^# \" G+ z* F* V Y5 xfindings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
, O, g4 W. u* k4 w; QJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
. P/ d7 v) S) f. x; vmarkets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact. [: X+ K4 V5 J+ Z- {9 x
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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; H/ Z2 D4 K& |5 oTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the! b' r# R: C7 D
market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
9 n! s3 z7 T8 U: `the city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we7 b, V4 t# [0 b5 t
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
. j5 D6 Y$ E: i% N4 o' s% R- h: PThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
( u* E* Y2 J" ?* o1 Lincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
: A: a+ z' @9 |& ^6 @months.
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5 H6 X1 W4 V8 B4 c: t0 k2 `/ B) OComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
. o! M) t; [3 r3 {caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying1 q( `) T) X7 A3 Q2 R' E8 g& }
fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that4 B0 f0 y3 g; t: b5 F. i/ F
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
" j2 U1 k: a- I5 @6 E/ k$ m- Y2 cuntil it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
' M" f+ J' q( ?3 k" w4 Vbecause they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June; \+ B" k, P" p
2005 to June 2006), also great news.$ Z4 G. Z! Q: R7 e0 _1 x
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June& Q4 ]6 s6 q9 o2 E% t, B, X- N0 H$ a5 U
2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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( Y7 z2 B0 M4 E. pVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
( N* b* R( H6 a& F5 u- ySaskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%
; M) A2 D4 [( Z; ZLondon . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%, B* ^* r3 j$ E& A+ R- A6 \
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%
6 I/ x# p$ a( D( f9 j+ ySt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%3 |' ~9 Z- F4 j2 |6 S, w
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2; J8 V" J. M$ A! s
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%
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/ x) m. r3 a, E! y+ [0 v0 ~" S' WFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
9 i/ ]- u6 A; ]7 f- igives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus! c6 }% g0 x/ N7 B
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
9 w3 z: \( M. D/ m5 m. bbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not4 S# _* w: A& D5 a/ @/ f
only across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are. c! `3 [! Z w# {
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to: U% g, f. R5 g# X9 k1 E
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
) i: F- b9 g# h i3 Bfundamentals:
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# [( F7 f7 m, g1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
( B: O; ?* ^5 _. ?Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth
* k0 I" C" |4 B1 S3 H" rfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and+ b L8 G$ ]$ f0 k
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the, `( F' Z# W: k4 d' q4 U, q, N
world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
3 B6 u% T3 A. \/ q5 I% G4 Uthe US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
( O: f7 \* E% y+ Y9 p, Ithat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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1 @9 I& o) \# s' N6 y3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment8 G8 _3 D: B9 V
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in V, o7 a1 ?; B' m3 B3 s9 A
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after5 X, }- F+ @5 `
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
! M" w' g& G/ H4 g! i5 Q Danywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again4 m2 \. R' J9 m4 C% ^5 e9 |# ^" `
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
% ^- |9 K: ~7 C7 O. Epolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can& a3 _1 x2 g" X1 C% {+ G7 Z, z2 _6 x
beat it for long term investment.5 j+ l- [" i; n$ `
2 e+ N; W" j6 z! D1 P% q4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely+ o- Z+ b8 S9 ~: h( b) a
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job1 I6 ]+ x' x! i/ i2 h
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)6 a' w; R4 m) ]% G- i
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since8 {1 v7 v( j" U# ^! y7 m
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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( Q$ ]) s R3 i- P8 ?; X6 g# QStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
* P& Y# _0 V* @" ~; b1 h+ U" lfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the
, w' @0 G0 t7 m7 w8 Y/ Reconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of9 i6 l! `. y0 f( Q3 w
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not3 |" k( u! j1 M
repeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with9 c4 N* {. B) y5 p
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at3 m4 ]. T7 n/ O* N0 }' ]- I
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate* W7 R1 r. H- G1 x$ S$ X! m
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
& a H5 X! t; i. zwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.- h& k2 M" D3 n% H4 L3 w
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
0 n) ?( q! e/ m1 H$ C4 heconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
% ^0 N8 _# d! q- _: ?'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do$ F$ G5 ~: _1 s
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
5 P7 ]# [# r' m( Nopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
v: f0 V* x% L! ~2 D0 t7 \'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
, ?$ o, v9 w$ s7 mand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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) }, k- N4 `- | q& z! s6 d( [2 OCapital Gains Comparison.- d3 \7 ]5 B/ a1 {- z! y9 A. b7 N
S/ x! A6 F2 q+ v4 ]1 h7 k+ i; [KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial8 ^- l/ P4 @' J, Q2 o9 r
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see" X* _5 h' d* l7 J
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%! r3 X! K5 W; Y7 @) I% c
AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%
* h" Z" a' Y+ B; A% @& O& ^SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
, r( Y# t2 D' P! s5 K/ PMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
7 V) Q3 c/ H4 W- RON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
0 w: M* b* H) u# [/ r7 GQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
5 A$ Z6 m1 l* T# \NB . . . . . . . . 23.4%# b1 v% l. p. p& `
NS . . . . . . . . 24.1%& ^+ c. i7 V9 l! P7 \, b
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%% X2 K* }' t7 x7 z. N6 p r
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%7 T) }/ h; S' q- D4 |4 O
5 K) P0 p4 m- r, lLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term$ H/ B' ~8 r7 p, G u8 h
economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of% Q9 \* V$ E: w, I
their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.
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3 U( ~/ x$ A- y$ A0 FOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
* Q8 S' D" X: `- P- X; Hopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of5 v( s O: u/ s5 H# q
course, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
. r+ m+ N( m6 V/ g% d% u- \events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion2 N0 {( ]) f2 b+ I) X2 k) u
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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+ L" z& J' y( r: IFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
1 f( n+ w8 o; Z2 H( ^results in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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