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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.9 [; H9 i1 L7 z$ M* h% A: W+ g' T9 L' E
0 v, F1 }( E+ A" s9 phttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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. x8 D6 ], |- i# X4 m# V9 V. MOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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Why might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.4 I& J0 m, \' ]9 V. a5 b) h
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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: N, x+ \ _% n: o, e3 ~The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.7 B; w3 s+ x, \6 Y+ f; d
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.) u, Q( L2 ?" o1 A. _
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Burleton knows how they feel.
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.: i. k# d7 a% \/ T- S K+ {
% |( s/ a$ N" o N/ fWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.+ O3 }/ {6 b0 ?' ~7 R
) K; d! k/ e/ E3 f. ^7 h% AWith ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.2 C c$ J/ {, t' p/ N
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.8 A/ s* d6 b& c% A' Y) h
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home., L/ M3 C, k+ B) b4 Y! T* F2 \
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.; ^$ {& k. L! U' D* n5 Q
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying. A3 n3 T1 Y6 L; S6 {
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.5 x) m9 k [! Y- Z; z
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."+ V+ E$ `: K% n" T
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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_# W1 D9 R6 v; t1 J0 MBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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