市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 x5 t$ O0 t* ]# t1 ZSignature Global Advisors
1 ^! L2 N5 `, ]- K! a8 T& S2 {

Background remarks
1 J8 m) X0 Q  P- Q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
. J" y3 B5 J6 J3 A' B. ?9 O This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) w; @  G: F. a Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" D$ ~1 D- w# `) T) ^4 n; }adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 r  V- A, P5 B# j Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 e9 S* v7 L' C; ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  L# L( J1 g  b6 B# ?. V5 Uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" D& o; k' [+ g4 X3 _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

4 f, p7 o- x1 LA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: L' D9 G; n3 j: Dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* H% \; Y* o8 baccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- W3 n+ z9 g; mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
' @3 ?" o# f. J4 t$ n) N7 Q Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 h5 M% w& @3 N; }; L) ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, R0 s( u7 L8 B  y( s+ \- K* O Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 t& E. {' m. n$ |+ ]bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* _( f2 s. P$ n& `7 t: [) T European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) T: H& d  `8 ^7 U* Vtoday.
. d1 ]* L' e: l! J, D8 ` Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
/ P! S  z# V, ^4 p: p! D+ @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 d( ~$ g1 h% w4 j" d* o* K3 T' Bthe Greek default.
" T5 u8 Q  Z1 ]0 a% Y/ L: i3 ` As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# E1 @/ f9 N& g' z- _6 r# ~" [debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ o- K6 f! t' Q5 m3 h. @5 x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  _$ _4 }5 L4 o- T2 P' _2 V! abanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

( u( C+ i* m  b$ HBeyond Greece
" U  g  i, p" p5 R8 L! n The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
4 j1 u0 n' ?" T It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 T6 b2 W1 z  u: r* j, h It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
' ]; k) l" R9 q
3 z, L( k+ W) }; Q7 t, J5 hConclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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