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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & {7 f/ d# @! }7 G
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 X" ~1 W& l" m8 P S- W3 N4 S
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive: |; o M$ t$ ]6 E5 i$ u
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) K, U, K" A3 @; r2 g. j2 O
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 ~5 W. B# M% t. ~& \9 T
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
. M$ ] c- r$ C1 Bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 ]/ t$ X* Y5 H' [% fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% X0 M! _# d6 B6 F" c0 F W& Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; S3 x& ^4 n, D# ^ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 S* f: ]) @+ Y7 ?! \4 E! |
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& q; `; k% Z5 \+ g' nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
9 v+ q3 @9 ]% @* Tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- j" F) h6 x" {, a5 s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
& W& u4 ^2 C. e& I8 K+ f9 x& o( P% qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# e3 R; o3 _" A. _7 x8 F3 xhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: t- w: e/ l4 P( Z8 DAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 j' |; y& ]: @( H! q; X1 N, B( X
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and J+ G! M9 v9 V5 H! @9 g$ B& t" y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* s$ e3 G! ^2 |5 V# H* u+ Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) p0 z% x# o4 z8 ?
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" B. u. B6 E1 d2 i4 c- H& o7 ~
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" N- g) \+ ^' l# A: C5 mhistorically depressed levels.9 I: E6 L3 M$ |: W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ X- Z' h9 L) J
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House U) g5 O) E5 Z; l
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the. s- j7 }9 t! x
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ u! n% C, p* w; _! r8 {* k' Lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! [: X$ U. ?. Rmonths ahead," added Hogue.* P7 t' Q) L# b) F
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 R: v+ k4 A& F- T6 q, ]; \3 n
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* [$ _9 I/ F( ^0 }/ t1 S8 ?# \0 `& R% T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." U* [1 s, J9 l" J0 P5 A
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for/ h: V9 V' S, h2 o
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- |5 |5 [ _- J/ C; ]3 Q& o+ J
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 \; R+ j6 E [1 B
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 R) d D0 c% P( z. \
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% }1 y: I+ i& F; z: R g, ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property5 y+ I' a9 i4 H( B, H. ^8 F0 }
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( f: w# d s7 n- vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: @4 i }% K4 Y7 r; s4 M. F
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 J6 \8 P, l1 ~: w1 i: C( k4 H4 t
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, G1 s+ \4 j2 ?4 i: S* S- T/ a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ @6 ?' @* h* c/ G9 ^( nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 f% k# B3 m: J1 I# n6 Q- M( H4 q( ^
1 j! d, F( H0 M9 N4 @
<<
& b- V4 [, Z+ X) A9 x u Highlights from across Canada:
, H7 u, a% M/ t7 J9 f& }- b! _$ c$ M- R- p8 b( M
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has D0 b6 D w; ]5 d) H7 f
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( J7 ?$ a" F7 l. G( f+ v
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 R0 p4 Y7 Q t( S2 U only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 q+ w& x2 a0 L$ v8 B! I% m since about the middle of 2007.: @0 f5 v k- p) _% n6 ]* x7 O
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% E7 U. Y; p7 n) j! d
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
, R& r3 S( ~0 }6 u2 m1 H8 B decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! d' e2 ~9 |) d% j" ?0 ?" K
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 h8 r' B3 [6 U' T3 k) u. z6 G1 n" S poor affordability levels.6 z* e2 C4 i/ y9 _8 }) l4 E! q' e" ]4 [
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
; P. D: M; d1 b* s9 K; B vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
Z! ]( w* c; I7 C( W6 X prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.+ d. y/ A: g6 l: @
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
2 e( G1 v* S3 x. [) j minimize any downside risks./ O+ b# x- p5 _4 b* Y
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
) y/ L1 W/ `. I6 k, T conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 Z7 M) F; b" A8 S$ [$ U
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ w, T6 G% P, M- @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' T% ~# ^& f: ?- V$ a" _+ O being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 I3 z* |) z" s: l
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 w7 ~$ g" Q7 y
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# V3 I& d: J& R- P* S# g
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ s" X) C+ O% G4 \# r reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! ~5 }% J9 n& V% d7 l ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ O# |; O' |3 ^! q$ e. C( O8 u
modestly in recent years.
' ]# s) P! [! l- J* ~/ \/ g - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' ^- o9 y5 g( T3 u general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ \( ]. I& ~* x5 L1 h! I+ b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
" i8 i4 f5 C- H0 _4 L price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
' I! V- ]' a3 j$ o following two years of deterioration.% ~8 G8 J: d* h/ e. |4 X' H
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