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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 Z: y" I' O5 v TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' S I- v) x4 `# u/ Q6 F7 ^6 smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
_2 S) |% J) w# N. vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# p8 Y9 a2 g+ Q, }: `4 _9 A
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." t! V; |- O" g& p( m5 l( G; ]0 M
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% l# M) X2 U+ E8 L# U0 G5 [& u3 Wsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
* s& r* N }. V; ^4 zimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
o6 G1 [$ \1 C: E0 y! mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- k& k7 O0 B2 ?8 O- F+ n. f. o4 _
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ z* V6 h! F7 |3 {0 E
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- B! X; d* ]: zwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 i. t0 ~6 I) w2 a7 S1 R5 T1 gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 `! J: P2 g" c$ [" o! G
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the x$ v: X. D" K7 V" A, E: J
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' M- f# a8 ^0 ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. @4 N) L/ `; `. P" t+ O* B, `1 m
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ ~" E6 U: R P6 j% g1 k
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 U8 ?9 G0 ]0 j" Q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 y G: B6 ~7 e
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 R5 t$ Q4 |- f b/ P0 {
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- h# D: D. a' p
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! u+ F8 m- C$ {* w8 r7 [1 _historically depressed levels.' |9 T3 s7 F1 v3 r7 G' D
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- G2 Z/ V! _! ]/ |) `% m' ?; R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 ]$ W T3 S; c+ x- g, N/ D. D/ Rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 e1 m2 G" F8 }
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 m8 [5 O& G0 T9 y! |- ` `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the+ r' p" P& t$ R/ u4 [3 u3 I
months ahead," added Hogue.
2 [6 b& |7 N' t4 I7 j RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 j4 V, S+ L: G" u; I: V* S z8 |
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 [1 I- ~- q+ V) d! `; Q2 R3 \
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* {0 ~; k+ `! g8 R9 H, C The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! q* E9 @# b8 d0 q; `7 L* ta broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
m6 \( ~7 c+ n4 tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) T0 ?; H O7 C9 M6 `; ? |
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 }) ]9 i! O+ T0 j The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: d4 p" @+ ~9 i! \5 K# v) Cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
" x9 ]7 R6 G: ebenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 T% E5 m- i6 l" C. K9 m) zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ }1 H! \% o0 `0 gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 G9 ^( r8 N. {* z% i
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership ] g! p( \- X J b/ n
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 w; A0 L0 I }" o
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.9 ]9 Y2 O/ @% q5 U( b, j
, }; b" N: M& O1 n& q0 H8 U <<* c2 m/ v% k' J1 g
Highlights from across Canada:
' C' ?. |5 ^/ w e) M, n+ l' k2 x& f. x" @# u
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ t# j- D; R$ I$ G. x! ?
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 l' W* ^; d" S, i# l% Q0 Q home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& p6 U5 g8 P) q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 \! M: a* L: k3 A* d4 Y since about the middle of 2007.
7 f! K% B) ]' P6 q3 d7 ]) ~( _ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
9 c8 \- b4 q4 U frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 ]/ U4 n( b7 N: z
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ Y: I) F3 L- C5 V9 \
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely; v4 Y8 J+ Y% |! V
poor affordability levels.
7 ?) U" N A H6 s$ X* V - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 i, o9 }; m9 d% E' a9 P vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% Y3 t7 d+ A& D5 q5 a
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
) r. U% @8 [% R: d, `- v* ?, p- e Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* J5 _# g/ R/ f- _) N& o. s
minimize any downside risks.2 Q, t/ ~% {6 k9 @5 J/ c! T s
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* S& c. m. S+ { c
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. _' r3 J; c2 C' r& B unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 [( p% \+ w( }' } 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 h: }$ I' t5 v
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ C. i) t' t. u- o - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in4 @* H7 {7 {1 ~8 P
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
P: F% w! }. @5 K$ ~' a9 _ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, H" j( E6 i1 Q, x reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. A% L: n$ H! t. H7 E6 ^5 Q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( w3 `; n" a% Z$ [; y6 B+ p, _ modestly in recent years.
T- s/ Z K, d4 A, a7 C3 _( s - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) d) x9 ~; ~( L5 C& x; X% d
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% x8 z0 N& e% w
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% G/ H1 `" |' u* f price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability( {$ x. a" ?$ B& z, L$ z
following two years of deterioration.
3 F N F) r: S0 J" ]. C7 v >> |
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