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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # n4 `) l' W% Q/ P
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) V- v, i5 V% k4 X. r$ {; g
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 X" E6 o4 u. b" |
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 Q! A+ S# L4 _; O9 w Z6 E
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics., I9 C' [$ g; w" n: _
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 T9 D6 Q0 [' A# k
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 x/ `! A; b w% f6 L: Q- d
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability1 r4 v4 m; w `2 G8 y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 @2 b: c9 E0 A3 S: t4 ~2 `
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is# o( `! \+ R8 [+ V
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,+ P1 Y4 T5 ]& u- X, \# h X
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 \. ?8 L$ @. W) Tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* L+ w2 U& y! E! W, H* A! _
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; L- f" g6 R- zproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 K o/ D6 m( \# r# P1 yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' w( b) c& Q6 q' r+ Z; n# D7 R- X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- `; [" u/ G: G( J8 Z0 ?standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" H* U! h5 C" Z9 Ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. O+ ]. K% \5 i7 @' b" W According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 l8 |5 M3 m s# H8 O: H! g) smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 ]) I5 A0 i- ] e3 D5 L, i) ?* v
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% u+ `$ X0 A* t) _3 b4 r
historically depressed levels.; J/ ]; i }+ T \5 T1 t- R" q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ O* I2 B5 F x" P) sof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* p! y! C' W# b8 Nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 @! q- a5 R' b2 I/ Q6 a4 \# P1 h
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- o) R6 ~2 q% W: [enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) v- N2 V" _; d0 U- emonths ahead," added Hogue.$ D, k- I& E2 u1 _7 L) \( K
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, P9 ^% _2 E( `0 Ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
m: g: ]+ ?% E42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.8 q& U/ N8 B' p# G8 {3 C, ]9 D% U3 A
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 b! }" d6 F4 c, V8 m& e, }a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 c5 @) i$ N5 x
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& t. H4 t- Z- Y9 \8 rtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: ?! u4 g9 e: \7 D) q$ }
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 W, h, p( \7 i: d' p( \/ \
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 f& a! J" n) q' e9 |8 Mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, f/ T- J- m6 e$ u
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 K+ e* \6 n/ N4 R' f6 ^' Ycondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( R) H# z, ?3 P
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- P$ v5 r, B f8 Y# T; z# P
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50* {; X+ D) A1 k# m+ v. \+ f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! B! W4 r0 W( _5 S: J, x5 k. M3 z. d. G2 a0 g% F
<</ A% B* p; C5 W* {
Highlights from across Canada:! X. N. C+ |6 X6 r0 I. o
6 s3 `& ]+ K7 `- ]- M
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 P4 g: f/ X0 T$ a* i- \ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 U: N1 H3 a3 J
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 n! m i( z& Q0 z3 x
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 U; u, E7 o9 J, C1 g1 I6 D
since about the middle of 2007.
- B) u" t0 \/ ?6 k' U; R% ~ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" ?) `, j4 _0 i# I frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" Q6 i' g9 V/ Q; g( z5 x decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! h& G3 f8 [' Z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ f5 i' V7 A6 L- t$ Y poor affordability levels.
( \! U" v) {: \) ]7 N- }; h - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ s4 w* [$ S) V; k' V
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* |$ z& T" g" w0 V2 M6 S0 l. R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; ^6 f1 o' x$ p+ M) y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) r6 Y) [( M" c9 k
minimize any downside risks.
$ p( d+ U+ G9 f+ g$ B/ E- E8 p. e - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. Y _ m7 W/ e; L% X conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is: h( X) ]8 U+ Z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
+ ?0 _8 k4 N- f) D% s+ r 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly \) r9 ~0 z1 g5 z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) {: Q/ ~! A) O7 i$ Q9 G2 a - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- w+ ]8 @" O/ q) d8 b7 S2 y+ g9 ]
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. g, H5 n C4 K far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 B& m0 S$ X! f
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 v" S) a; }( f' G
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only" V% T/ c N" ?! ^
modestly in recent years.& y) \# i! c8 _' ^! K' @
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( K9 L# H. ^% c general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 K! x1 y! K* } U- Q0 b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
# ^- \! I1 x- K7 f" T7 L price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" E% m" ?. Z) I3 A+ s following two years of deterioration.& q P$ f J. d" A U% N
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