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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 s9 W* ^8 l- e4 a+ W5 s' s TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. ~. T7 i2 {! k" h" p0 P
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# Y4 V8 V( ?; T8 U$ z. v
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 u+ K8 [- o7 v
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. }, ]. X5 w/ K0 O
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," ^! F# m) e9 h' v8 T9 Q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# o' q# \+ |1 iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* e" f1 v+ c5 ~5 J% c; M8 Rmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! n {. a; n, Q. u: \
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% M6 y4 S7 ?3 e' _- {& U
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 I! ]9 P0 T+ P- m$ V# m
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have, ]* {2 R$ M8 Z
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 v6 t/ j V& i# Q! E* z1 C" A+ O* N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 {4 \% W2 C! M5 c- _
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ v8 z* ~: o! Z# r4 a+ R6 _
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% [+ ]" H' ~6 a. _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' ^; n* | y- n) a. C: h) e0 _! Nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 k- }. i/ E5 L4 c7 c# C
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( n6 R4 x, w' k" i: ^ V According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 q2 ^: j2 J# s G4 j
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 e' k9 w6 n# Q% P; ~+ Ithe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at! Z5 `- a+ ^( W" i; ~6 U
historically depressed levels.3 ? N$ y- V1 } w' _3 k
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 \; Z3 G6 {/ C; G9 t. y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 V3 f7 ?0 t7 e" N: Y
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& t% v: G1 R3 p) i4 e# _: S: @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 E6 n) V+ @4 T6 i2 d6 |; m
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* `) y+ c- Q" j1 z
months ahead," added Hogue.
+ R- g( U3 `6 z5 S RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
5 E: m8 u3 X; }7 O$ T y# ~0 Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ w2 n$ ~) d2 t) I3 j) Y: G& u7 S42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) d$ T3 I, J4 {$ W- M The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& p: ] j6 g) O: B& K7 `' j" ~) C% La broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& P0 B( ^+ j5 Wcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; ^* t2 [# w& m6 E$ ?takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 q% |( M/ @/ i7 A- l7 V The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) V+ w$ `9 o" n
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, i( b X4 L7 V; M& B( N8 Rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ i: q+ v( d6 O9 A; X* zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ r8 L/ l) }. y4 a
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ E: t$ n+ v X' bFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) ]3 q' X9 `5 P; ^costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% B0 L$ c& S2 a# v* u$ ?per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 x3 ]" Q" G ]: Y. X
; S8 d! w3 o0 ~" r, q6 u4 O' W <<- J- L% s, G. T4 G
Highlights from across Canada:* ~1 j8 i0 d2 l- i
+ `& n# ]) N% r7 `
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# N- l5 c) {1 ~- J* j' B; n intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 M; T* ]0 M0 I0 U3 \: }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 `( w# j+ _5 N/ e ~0 c only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, ~ {; Y2 O( R* w; |- t
since about the middle of 2007.
( a% T, q1 }4 R1 p$ c! d - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! d, x1 ~" |' B) q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 c& O9 Y: x: M3 B decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 Z- x4 ?" ~6 f- S, o" A8 X# a% P. R largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely2 Y& j( A3 j* q: ?; v. R( S; d
poor affordability levels.* O8 f+ c% \$ D/ g
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 @9 m4 w* l* @" j" z" i8 c vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 V1 F9 `" T i) _
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 T1 ^& r8 | g; [% r, B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
2 g2 F' H. `, O1 M$ E4 L6 a/ g minimize any downside risks.- z8 o. q9 K/ M5 v# S
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 p1 D9 D; m4 N6 G
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! A1 _- Z& D+ Q n# `' i, n unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* g: _& c& F3 x* n7 q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 y1 Z% \! _- p4 F
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% l) |. ~( H4 ~1 ` - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) K: L0 R8 Q! N! d3 E6 ? Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
d7 P. ?+ F0 u3 g0 `6 \" r: q5 s% Y far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. T/ I+ g5 ~' `# y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. v* r$ h( T: Q, L% C$ n
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 h5 V% ~; Z/ R. d7 r1 K8 n
modestly in recent years.$ a6 f8 ]7 B* q3 [
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& M* I) X2 ~& {6 E! E6 M3 \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 m' t; }6 \% S
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& x: }) y w" ^8 \9 p7 C price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
7 s) A! o8 S' V( r5 x following two years of deterioration.+ P+ ]. S$ T/ z( s. Q4 i
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