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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: k/ p8 f* V& i8 _ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the9 x4 Y6 P3 q3 i7 z9 @% Y4 p
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 {9 H* \" y5 B4 S f. \gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ a# W+ R- j# ]% G) [
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, ^1 L, J& t4 {1 z' V "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," v6 N. x) y7 s E s( l
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! A* R/ \; ?1 ^* }improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability# T* y7 x! h) l% I0 L4 B. Z; e0 p
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 p( K2 N% {( n' m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' N2 @; K" W( S5 U5 S% Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 e; E+ t( l, X0 F( [which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 j$ d2 I. b& o2 L9 k" [sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- i1 ~2 A" N% M: N$ N8 U0 Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% e( ?, }; K/ Sproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ D, H/ b+ B0 `7 Bhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 ^4 v; g9 d- b/ A z @Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, u7 b+ P$ I3 t& }, L
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 N& d- Z9 Z# Y+ I0 `/ s! L; C1 |
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. F6 j3 w$ h, L) a
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 B; X, Y8 o1 } q' m4 ]may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) L( P" j6 @1 P5 m2 Mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 i( N T9 c0 L) w1 y4 s
historically depressed levels.0 {' x5 {2 D* ^
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 d/ Q) a0 p; p/ v
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 g" T$ S6 d$ x% h' y; S& Z
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
/ @2 e# }* [, D. o, G* chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ ]0 T4 e( q, k0 q2 o, {+ a# }( \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ f+ ?/ T* T$ c2 X; a' kmonths ahead," added Hogue.$ d- i* U8 @& X" a6 K/ q7 o4 B C
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest x6 ^: \1 a; X( l* l( i
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& Z+ Y. j! {6 [, i% s
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent. |* S8 f0 u4 u }! g: S) ]' d
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 A6 e: L8 }- y1 `a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& m$ o$ |- p( V2 ?cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 W# j! T) f, T- {+ vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 Z6 S9 c3 }8 `1 y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ S9 a( L. E: z$ L: u0 J
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" A. f: J% |! o" X, x1 g5 O0 ?
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 h% v5 Q+ S* Uincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard- |7 B1 L- r8 v# s. p' J5 m
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 {& W' D) _/ l+ N" r; Y( Q
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ s; ]7 M: A, d0 l3 R( H4 a# `
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( q9 V, D: |: x& K0 C8 fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 Q4 L$ |, [$ p6 N& s! l/ N
8 a/ R8 @! @' n7 @ <<
3 H$ X( ?, [8 {% F1 n7 E Highlights from across Canada:
* U5 N; T& w5 z$ z( Y* W- c$ r( T" W6 p! y- w
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 P+ [$ `( N6 l; M; S* q, e intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 x) i# F' y$ Q9 \ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& U1 U3 n' d0 c# A2 q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; M$ e' X9 {/ K* y H since about the middle of 2007.
1 I; Y6 p4 f9 f! ?# L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the6 M6 p# I6 J1 Q3 s; w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ @+ E# W( v( G1 l
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 L+ w6 ?9 {& V( } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* q9 T$ P8 y5 e4 }/ v* \" Z& ]3 u- s poor affordability levels.
+ W0 ^$ q. |8 d! C. f5 M+ E% a - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 a! ~7 e) w$ k: R% x' q vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 m1 Z- q* m5 j, M5 } prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
t; M' f8 u: @' O3 {9 l$ S( s5 @2 { Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# ]: X. e6 {5 `/ O minimize any downside risks., l8 {6 b1 }3 l3 J9 c4 P
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& W, y- |8 m6 ^# c8 B! Z conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" @8 f' a: a/ L3 ]: m" C
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early" r1 c1 C3 o+ l9 q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 h: l1 f3 k+ s" ? Q1 Y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 U$ m) M8 q# l- x# u - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ G7 ]5 v7 ?0 [2 x* b" }3 A Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 S. z0 p9 h; f- m! y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' y1 A4 C$ ]% Z2 c. R$ w& k& r' o# J3 { reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be! M* t; Z( X- k7 c$ T
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ u+ U3 l& X0 C* ?' C6 p. o modestly in recent years. X6 c! M( `# z1 x( s) b
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
& x6 R# w+ ]" } [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& ~ p/ [2 a+ l+ j [2 i% p
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 y. v. K6 W W
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) ?# t& T; r8 U. i5 [. c/ [3 G following two years of deterioration.
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