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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 h: `" m/ m) b4 p+ K9 w3 V
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# N& X$ _4 g" |
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 i' U+ x' U3 i
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: v$ E3 Q, L) Q- C9 j1 b+ b h8 Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
) N8 l8 @+ C, r. I- ` E6 b "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," q. `; H( o3 |& P0 I
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 b4 y# j- E/ D @% [" Z3 Limproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* ` E5 v( O$ j% tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: M6 f9 T3 Q. I2 S4 V RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
S7 I- F, a/ U. K* S$ aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! e( G* t+ d, k7 a( a: r2 n7 qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" k) Z/ @6 W4 rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 T: B& b' M, ]% j The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* I! y% O8 {" @proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 o/ Y" R T% ]4 v0 X) K$ Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ ?5 @1 K' k( [. _
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% d8 c" C" b# F, zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) M; F' m: Y) c; Sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# e: y5 s, H( C* i2 m! w: n: M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 I9 v" U. V, W7 _# g
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 x1 P# A( n! {7 uthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ g, i: K% {# h- s! k# U8 t+ R
historically depressed levels.4 g( I. S' X, N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 [ x( Q& s* V/ Z" v
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: C7 }$ L% u1 P) V
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& U6 Q8 Y' n. y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- [" E/ ]- }" N' Aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) K( ~: \) B" S- c7 dmonths ahead," added Hogue.
7 q$ i( N, k# T! b2 b RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest D! U. \* }: J+ |9 c- w
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: d3 ?& ~, i" M42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' M' w4 W6 e. q5 k* T8 q3 F
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: |8 w+ A* Y3 n% F3 E H: b6 n! y' P
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 U1 s6 I- g& C+ [! Fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 c: U& j! Q& ^6 a, }
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 i6 w9 O$ g2 x7 D4 i The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ Q2 O, N1 P, {, ^8 J$ ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property, {- ^$ y) q4 u
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. B$ J! V, p, B- l+ K* i7 v& K6 gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" Q( T. x. e. U e# l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 A( k6 J" _4 T3 oFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* ]* G7 C: r8 m5 ~& Z$ P: Kcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# a( \3 h+ H( w7 N* S. a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income." X, y# x6 T. p9 [% ]7 z9 T2 C
0 T. k0 o& p$ I4 ^& a1 m
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5 `/ H7 Z+ S" Q% J Highlights from across Canada:/ m- b( p6 V8 q
7 i6 A) B9 x$ S& O: n6 N
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has I' t4 d3 {3 x3 l* w3 J4 u
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" ]9 T z* m! z2 P8 y" r" s2 _+ a
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, {/ z# c- ?; A% \9 I only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% w# [. b, h; z6 ^# m2 }4 y, N
since about the middle of 2007.
8 b ^# Z/ u7 M$ \% B( G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
: s: s! N% q1 o7 N6 x/ u4 S frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- `) w2 {+ Y% {# Z1 f' z
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
d$ K8 s6 A' l! o largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 } B; e+ l8 Z1 X% P poor affordability levels.) a% Z6 @% }( | o& E" X# f
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- u) D) L' T5 d% c6 k9 E1 q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 |4 r- q# b" m2 v: g- J
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.% g4 p% t3 I- R1 g0 U3 l H; K" a' o
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to9 O0 F/ q$ q7 V( m
minimize any downside risks./ f8 c9 }. P+ F4 d$ ^- X. e
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 c) D6 O+ r6 B2 `9 o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 S+ _, z" L' P) _# b7 y! f unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ r- S" a( e6 u* q4 h
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% C0 ]/ y1 {. |' M b, |, I being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 q! @# P. s4 ] - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
B8 m! d/ S5 j" f) N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) U! P: {! Q! [9 s3 ]) }: Z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, m0 {9 d& Y! i: v5 N5 W reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" p, g. H5 E/ J) U ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
' H: O) U- ]. p" Q# ?; m modestly in recent years.- b( _0 w9 ]: J
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 X0 O9 f2 D6 E) A; ]: I4 u
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot2 s( e6 k& X0 a3 k* N3 {
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* S# p* R. {1 n4 R- P- v: k
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability7 E* V9 d7 C7 c
following two years of deterioration.6 R$ C4 d1 i7 A6 t5 |
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