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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 L \% t3 U3 F# G- K# j/ h TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- r* D! T* o3 s
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# t' Y2 S- k0 c5 w0 ]+ n9 Z# x& Xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 `5 J9 r9 S0 l' V& _' g
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% E3 q8 V4 p. x9 \+ w "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"9 V( m7 a+ D9 K& R
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 O( o9 V% n7 i2 }! H! \ t& r R! q8 t$ J
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ B5 O: T. o2 E4 ]7 I
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."( G0 `( d* _1 K% ^6 E
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: U* l A, v7 Y% p2 Wworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# G t/ c( d% Z0 b9 _' S1 e7 z5 b
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ k6 I' Z, v* h$ ~6 Tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 v7 K7 M6 c8 Z2 z$ b* D t* ]3 {, E The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the* N+ d3 s: j' k/ y: Y; E
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 ]7 s! v% w) V, `/ T. d' k& {
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 q/ O4 f! x" n$ }. L: n
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 o5 W/ n! z& v' W! K7 @standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and% Q$ G" ~* r9 L5 ?6 N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ Q0 m b. {2 s6 C$ n According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% k2 G# h- J9 ~0 }; N# X' [
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% \2 v. R5 t- _! X
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' k1 {- ^6 p" P' Q" M" r2 lhistorically depressed levels.# G$ N6 S: W5 r3 l1 U% x8 s+ A+ X! e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
0 c$ D3 P! J- U. x0 r! dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
, N7 y4 @8 T- s* h. mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 f# h# ?1 Z6 @" |) U9 k: [; I
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 k: J/ D; ^' q7 L/ v
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% A8 Z; \: l' j4 w$ pmonths ahead," added Hogue.
' t' }7 l; W# R- ` RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
p2 z3 z. U' N8 Gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 C0 E7 ]1 L$ u: V7 k$ |
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ m4 ~$ i! \% F, h6 a' v; U- z
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 n2 \6 x, ^% Da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
0 ?& c: K7 ]0 f, ]( W4 ycities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# i& F6 }3 K2 ?4 ^9 Etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.# }! t1 k e' L2 M2 T! E7 ~/ d
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" y& O: x2 u9 F3 M
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ d1 s! w2 [$ u) C4 j, z8 Z8 Ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
5 S" y4 j8 b7 a5 |) Zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. E; g$ X/ D, Ccondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 s% H7 a: l( t: A( aFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership. N2 A* w, `( H% @) I, C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) M# d: c% s8 C, \- L! pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; C1 M% L2 \' l) [
3 o! Z# N1 ?/ k1 W <<. C d; `6 J; D( b; R
Highlights from across Canada:7 x! j! U; @+ y9 f6 \
9 U( ]0 i6 [* F: Z! w+ U) d- p
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 _* }1 |- p1 d7 n" c! V9 n intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 p6 h' J; |% d- C/ \
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) L s7 v# y' z& S* f
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 @) [+ }4 f8 v1 g since about the middle of 2007./ K, A- V5 M: l- q- n, J( a9 m
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 ?+ ^! _/ Z3 o. A: ?3 k! @6 ^& E' T
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, b8 N- o) c0 |/ ?* |" V# \
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) `2 t' X0 ]4 y: C" C* X largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely N& q2 \+ d8 X' f; v- u; @
poor affordability levels.1 V0 | \- [$ y R! \
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( w' I5 H4 q2 h6 u J- T1 z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. u0 u7 M9 n {' `' ^1 y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.* B A) z7 J0 I: Y6 L
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 s( A* G& ^+ Z( g4 @9 r% X7 M: O
minimize any downside risks.$ A1 R* z y$ Z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ ^1 S+ V. ]& F. T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 R/ ?7 z/ l8 j2 ~
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# m8 @/ t! W7 ~, c3 L/ `
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ ~( x! M l3 E" t. D; m8 t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 D/ ~2 S9 Z+ Z; s+ |( W6 e - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& B$ T+ t: \* ~6 l. g- K! n Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
: ^* K8 `) e1 V# _ L' h* I far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# ^1 {: z$ A, W# W/ I, b3 H reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& S2 I; h2 Z* Y) A0 T" S
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
# Y1 n3 b1 u/ ^% H6 x modestly in recent years." i" }) z& K5 l" r4 Q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
: q$ p3 w/ U) ?2 P general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
[0 Y8 E" k, ?3 O' W8 V- i spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( e7 g; {' a% }" H
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 r+ i6 {1 v+ j6 S following two years of deterioration.$ X# N$ D0 n' i/ k; ~
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