TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
: H; h4 _% F+ B6 Q* W- A/ e9 Hfrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
4 {  ?' x& C$ d5 l7 Q; ounsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
/ z$ `- |% K! J8 c: {% q2 f12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
- v1 O4 i2 [0 `' f7 p9 `9 z* rthree years.
5 l. c/ k7 Q/ P& h$ t8 jBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
8 E+ q2 |3 L" \/ k. V) ?their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
. l& O- i, V) D6 _" s! y( Dto fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
0 J2 w2 C. }3 M7 [6 W: Rwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
) l+ K6 q7 |2 d# f7 k$ Yhomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
! r% Q4 v9 M2 O2 u: K: f" Rthat is now being rapidly reined in.
& g+ J% F- o7 G+ p1 R% QWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
9 Q1 @  p) v+ m9 B6 lthe construction of too many new homes over the boom
' S2 G( `$ r9 z1 ]* }4 @5 \5 I3 [means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
! h7 @# J, F* ]! }on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
/ h( \8 X& s9 O; g8 V- C7 dfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
* U3 R& k8 K$ U: H; o$ }remain choppy and new residential construction will be
% ~1 o  I7 U: @8 F9 ?4 `5 |dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
- X1 G4 @# C$ |residential construction will fall further to around
$ y  K! r8 q" b! k$ m7 [' a125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
. g! f1 K7 ]3 g  v$ q, T5 `we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
: W/ r2 s; E/ Aprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
) I  |! a( C3 A6 N" Bvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
, q5 ?) l+ ^6 `4 _# HTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
3 Q  \$ J( w% X+ Q' Hoptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
# p4 A- c* n, Q, x1 @many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
) M9 C; l' b1 @population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
9 l1 T6 f- S7 U% balready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
: i+ r- e: F+ g1 X) w! _very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
1 B/ T' k5 T7 |: J5 n3 p% u( H8 YMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
4 u1 T) M  @6 R4 D# ]+ Tgiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
+ K2 }! V6 n4 `/ ^rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
8 _2 N5 Y4 q# C6 z5 \cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
3 f" K# `0 c: U6 Y; ?4 climited – with the important exception of the Toronto
% w  W; h# P/ P! z; Gcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
: w0 k4 ], {6 Y, S0 T; H9 hreach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
" X+ H( j6 r) Zresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
% {& B& o: w: O! @. d8 i) tanticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
( K. ]& Z, x8 pwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
! t0 T6 d* c; T# v$ }0 GOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
( t5 W) f7 v3 P- \MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
$ \: h, O: w1 qGrant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
* O# t' ^# z- L! V416-944-5730

6 h* j% b# ?& l' C) h2 zhttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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