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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
\% h- ^5 r& o; U6 K" h1 nPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.
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R: y# B" G& `3 p1 M, m/ DThe average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.) e7 ]2 j% `$ Q5 R2 U; s/ X; v
; @# C' F& {3 {Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.0 k& W; j# a/ E9 i0 @( J9 D
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.
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0 N7 _ G' x$ e9 S- ]. k2 q"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.: b6 m- U. z0 E k
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"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago./ `. B0 `- |! _6 r, L$ t1 v
3 Z7 c: E, A1 I0 ~ IThe price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.) }, A3 k! d8 k5 [/ n
8 w0 H$ Y& L$ \5 Q8 lThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.3 t) ^& J3 o% f
0 V. \2 t9 v% }' ~4 d% o"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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, v# D, s( n, C9 ~+ c; xIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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0 s) s1 }) p& c7 C2 l. o& nBut those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.3 `9 S/ ~$ X8 D" q; }4 z
% [1 w r+ [4 f" ^7 d7 o7 X"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch., {* m V5 w9 E# p& e/ N6 G8 M
% P4 M& r. ^( ]9 ?9 [5 U"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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( U, P2 Y( q& J6 f"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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/ Y. z; d, j5 F/ p' S6 x"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.0 x) Y2 n* G1 j8 g V
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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