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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?! h2 Q2 G$ J9 J7 h& B$ p. z) G
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
8 H0 ?4 Q* M F7 L+ hCanadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine/ W8 \/ ^: A0 S- u5 f) x
3 o8 N" h6 |8 WCALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.. m* K. ^, w7 f2 Y
, _1 @& ^) ?# x2 M% p; qThe average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.6 v* x4 d9 d, O$ }; V
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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0 O! R7 j( d5 k. q* _2 s"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.
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5 Y3 J* r* E! D"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.
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"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."( z% V1 v, f0 U) q1 D
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July." }' R& R0 e* x; o# k$ Y
6 [4 K- }# s7 yThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago., F) v/ l5 k, r
. Z/ k( y# x: [( z5 c# B/ L"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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9 c( K+ [# i6 o9 H! wIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.. M& L" h+ s4 F1 z
$ B i3 ?# L, B6 v( mBut those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.6 u& z* B! S/ m
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.5 _, @$ L& X" O. ?3 ~+ u
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."- x8 v7 Q8 o$ y7 Z; N" K: s
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.& N$ H' Y) d* C4 Q' A/ v5 e
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.4 v5 k1 z8 `4 f8 h1 h* L( B
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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