No trigger for a Canadian house price crash: CIBC economist

WHMIS

No trigger for a Canadian house price crash: CIBC economist

Canadian house prices may continue to slide but there is no sign of a crash, a CIBC World Markets economist says. (CBC)Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.

& r/ H, R0 Y# ]6 W$ XIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
$ A# f7 ]3 x4 H, P' s; _: ]  t
"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

% F0 A& [7 s& |( }As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
1 G+ S: E) B% T. S
4 M, J9 i9 D' }) A; I4 v"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

0 h' i) y, f3 v7 p8 A% H& R0 n0 @( b% ^Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
& L, T3 V! d) \; Z
& F" [/ r: S! U1 D, PTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.

"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."