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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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4 a; _, l) m/ s; T yDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
6 E* v Q3 f) w( m' J' A TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
% Q- h' W1 h: z+ r! r: B) Kcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
! r! s! G: b! Sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging$ f# \6 }+ J5 {% R5 ]# s2 y
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
0 J/ t' j$ G2 F( a) eand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more+ v, n2 s {0 @/ P3 l
upbeat.) u6 X v9 X) ?/ h+ q, H! J# ]
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded* B7 U) i7 B( K7 U( ?+ C; A
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects+ |# a! k5 |: m) c
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real# q- B2 [3 S' M
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company" y* {9 N" ^9 j
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.( D n% E# `$ X0 X# o( p4 I# e
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world4 Z- N1 u6 D; \3 O/ R
including Asia Pacific and Europe./ v, F0 p, \+ c+ @
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian/ ^/ y" i4 h% B+ W# ]5 t ~$ h: X
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment6 o7 z4 p8 |+ Q6 [
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to4 Y$ g1 }, g2 p) F3 j' c
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
# S( c& G5 b( S4 ahighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
3 r9 p0 E0 L6 N( H According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
6 C/ i7 _. r) V8 C5 e* e# _border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 D3 J8 p# d* P8 z6 ]; S
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
, S) ~4 [) ?% b9 Gremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US' \3 R' ^" ^$ b" A# w! c8 s7 N
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
: |) o g7 W% l% ^7 u& t" [, Pvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.$ [! T" E0 j, m# z' f# i o
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian. B7 A X$ m0 |0 F; I9 H
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
3 X- o8 h& I' {6 T: Xcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
# | A: e( O- A7 G% adevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country t( k U+ Y% S: Y. v1 M
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
( G9 T" C: k5 ^# {1 R+ a ndevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
8 `, U- Z3 z. ~+ `- Aresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to* l9 p5 Y# l) K
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
2 h6 S3 f8 _# K, ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.
9 e/ ?, b! j. q9 k4 u Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with1 j* ?- x4 y* _
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian. M. ~0 L) H0 M: |( g
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push: K* y2 x* y. a } h. Q a
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting) a" m( ~+ h( \- f
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good, c9 X- t' K% A( ?9 I0 u
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
8 F/ x7 ~1 v' Yapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
! I7 u+ Z+ @9 Q o. L) ?9 @western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing2 q# M$ ^& X4 J3 \4 }) g
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
- N# z) d" a2 w: jthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development" ?5 F/ e7 m' B) [
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.! o: Z6 O& P0 |% ?) h( k- [
2 U; Q: {$ J$ w5 K0 y Canadian Markets to Watch0 [0 n0 ]" V2 l4 i
- O% ]- z, v' f+ r c7 S) M The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central' ^2 i; H+ i' A" _! O/ `+ n. R% m6 o
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour+ C8 f5 q5 ]5 M1 u% C+ d
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
8 `0 Z7 A0 M% c1 pinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
; ~6 [+ e J% @5 ~: G8 q& ]* }downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
: z1 w/ C, m8 r/ G0 J1 R3 }projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
; o5 |; N$ Q* a# B. A; iwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
- t; K( Z& ^# P; A Mprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain+ c. ], d7 K9 S0 e! i, K
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
. y4 [. A; ^2 BToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
. q( f$ P' v+ a) c0 p0 n0 F9 Fratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.4 F6 k$ l% Z" B. ~9 J$ }4 l
+ r, S# Y+ ?/ d7 j2 z Calgary/Edmonton
f) G* y. D- K) i/ q7 R# V) g" B' I$ O! ^# x; t# f* M- s
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
- }/ O# \1 |$ U9 A$ l, O+ B& Eboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a. z: G0 i) x/ X
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,9 e6 e, o/ e. b
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.6 b/ x4 p6 Y9 P
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 g# |9 P+ A8 H" }5 N) H9 nHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
2 P6 q! i$ O# W) i+ @" ACalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
" b: R$ A. g; s6 |2 ^# q7 ?# Lstrong, this market will continue to do well.+ H9 g U& R; ]' {* \* u7 [
6 }5 Q1 f0 m. b* h, H! m& ? Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is4 E% z) d' r" t& s/ P
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
, t/ r3 }/ X- _* H5 vreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
8 d Q5 a& }/ ~& R" pmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a& Y7 S1 [; E: {4 w7 T3 |4 v) t1 K6 f
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy* h6 ]! _1 }. H6 Y) Z( ]
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
. J) ?; L5 z1 Yfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%6 f' F# r3 z4 A7 Q* b
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very. f) \# O/ [6 {: d9 l! d2 O
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto# F% `8 J8 v; C* R2 J: _
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and& Q4 d8 n, w$ y4 t
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
; d, H+ p3 D1 S# V6 W' D- hrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
- o: X$ d/ b5 }) Qindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
$ o/ G4 R6 c+ S) Y- YThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square$ B0 N: l( ~: B# a6 o! L& g
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and( Y: W- @5 e( o
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
' ]* {* d. ^" S7 g9 ` O/ d6 X! `+ ]6 |7 f5 t% }9 {
Montreal: M$ n: R/ E c) B# h; @
. U) j7 N; q8 R- ]+ z Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ l, r. ]8 P0 G+ `9 h' _0 t
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up4 T2 z4 X; y1 a/ H
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
2 D7 ^4 t) B2 s/ ?Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate" Y6 S5 N6 H& [0 } d! `9 F
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors2 V* r1 X! s- I8 X, F) e J
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
5 a9 d2 F$ V" J1 P9 m
+ i( D1 I e# o( v6 x The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years5 h9 _% a5 f, d* x. Q4 A% m
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
: c9 D$ @! E/ A* i7 ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
+ T0 L8 J+ g# Xnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest7 g5 n" e- `- y' ]9 b" C# n$ X# O0 q- c
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
9 C, ^: G7 J. p1 j) D1 A# c6 |. Oprices."
0 G1 j- S- F2 ]0 f) q$ ? A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at# R) B& K8 K% h7 C7 s, A( Y4 |: B
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
# D* ~2 O$ @' k) l& h: |% y4 X
8 y- B) [* [$ C About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 D, _( e2 E. x9 h. U' g' ]
' F# t: Y* f! w) w) K7 b' m# D5 s7 c
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,/ h; F1 Q% P: |4 ?* ?
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its- ^' K1 L- j6 f: J6 Z R% z# a
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries9 N" d$ K7 O! Y% _3 i
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop- C0 I. }0 ]4 F; c6 S
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
6 T* ~1 X4 ^0 W( C, ?excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its( E! x2 c1 j- x; Q' [
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
" t0 E- Q! o5 n8 Lcountry.( |' P6 b0 B! l5 {, Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
# k) |0 U0 ?; Z8 @ B2 zlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
* n1 f K/ q9 V# J+ VPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,* i) o+ L2 i7 z6 c7 ^2 k+ ?/ Z! Y
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity. i1 ^6 m* [# w6 l+ @
. q9 V1 }7 q1 i0 F; y v' x
About the Urban Land Institute: I# r- e; @( v7 N
+ u+ a$ ^$ B- g/ P4 C
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
# b( v1 l/ i) V2 F& G: p; D* A& A! yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide: D9 i% A2 ~4 j5 O9 R) F( P: L
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating7 e6 W; d0 I' c2 h8 `; _
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more$ s# x; w* _3 F! s* Y
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
8 |2 T- [1 R& T# A' F" S* J4 Kdisciplines.
$ A( B. {3 ^% B: q$ D0 b The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' M2 g6 X, z5 h
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District/ U: y* F+ }& Y" @" m' K' @
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is, [& ^7 m# N+ q4 H# _# t; o+ f
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be( R2 \' t& B: S! }# c
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
% S4 K. J3 Q; b; z/ [, ^& g2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake+ Y4 p9 O s0 c/ E$ f: D
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,# `: `2 s$ U- E5 J6 u
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please* w. C2 |" V4 I6 ] ?5 b
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
$ z [4 W; X- |# u! M, F) hthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.# f3 B6 I4 c5 s
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5 a/ u' f& `- b. Z( ?0 G' P; F# }) Z% |- x; }
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
& \5 p2 `/ Z- g: @4 v$ q E(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com$ M. V- K/ c: B6 ]4 U! t' G
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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