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Attention Real Estate Reporters: & ^" E/ n5 x+ X, W9 ]6 w* c7 _
( B' x7 B- C s0 ^: ^Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 L9 o8 M* [6 l# X. z/ i: @ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US l5 k0 T% |+ {" J- x( w3 d
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
2 |/ O* X) X5 w g7 f9 D5 ias the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
8 G: X1 v( c- ]( ~6 \Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
+ a! Y P. {, E7 s1 ~+ Gand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more% x1 C6 p8 ~ B8 n' i- [- A4 a/ u
upbeat.. X0 q( ]- b) K9 n* p! L, X# L
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded. t) d7 Q( c% j1 R9 v
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
6 O) b& E+ G2 W! M# Z/ A0 Sinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
- k. c9 ]8 {4 y/ Q3 c- vestate experts, including investors, developers, property company3 I( p8 H# j y5 b5 f1 }
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
+ i: I. U+ o! Z+ r- E/ v, q( ~Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world+ v3 V2 A$ L# I' p2 ?1 {
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
; [. d: n v& C. p& E According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian4 u8 B, d3 b% o) S& R3 V4 K* v
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
2 n& `# x0 h" |( a0 K' \) Henvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to! W8 @" T8 r" m! ~( n/ K
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
: g8 {, X( p ohighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
8 G$ S; D) g. |! c# e0 Y7 U" n5 Z; \ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& a* n+ b8 g% {9 U1 e
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& a6 }0 ?) {! r: X1 p% J& D5 F! @speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey) X5 |6 |( R1 s) N; ^. @8 Z
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US! i1 U- Q, B+ n3 u
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be; ?2 `; k" V. u3 f2 Q' B# W; k
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 H6 W( m" L, D; p# K; B E The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian+ y! f2 ]2 s. l0 E- s$ E6 u
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
/ J0 J) P0 [2 a$ o5 L* Bcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
% u0 g2 _8 S1 \, u9 Odevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
$ p. b6 z4 r$ t$ g3 Sespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
1 T4 [6 V+ H7 z& h, G* J% n9 y* zdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The9 Z6 m5 ~' \. |* D% _: l, y
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
/ F9 v% `9 j3 Y3 N0 q' U# htake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
6 R, L# ~& K9 d" |5 f' z+ A) ysingle-family housing looks overpriced.5 t( l$ U) [& d0 D* w
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: L& M8 D2 Y# W5 }# \: |
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
; W0 I5 _& n3 S6 w& Z. Imetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push$ @% \5 H) G% u7 L9 v% s" @! C/ P) ~
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting/ T8 M! z% G! s: _# _3 v3 h* [
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
2 b2 X2 ]- e, S+ yand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental5 [5 {3 g3 x2 c5 p: u
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
, ?$ F2 y9 x0 C4 R( Zwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
7 u+ H/ M' [/ Ashortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into, Z! [; Y% Z H+ G$ t
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development0 v; B8 i* U1 z" a
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
9 `$ {7 u& ]$ Q9 e, V# B& x7 a9 y P" r- Y8 r* q8 W
Canadian Markets to Watch
9 B1 E! u; G- ?3 R( G8 L
- d' K- @% v' e G3 ~- S$ u0 N The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
6 _3 k9 [" {0 hcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour7 }8 z" _* Z2 A' M( Q. {8 a
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back- C; N- U% a- R8 ^3 K ?" f
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
6 |6 _7 }5 u' K7 }downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& N6 u9 o( j4 o$ t4 [' ]9 o+ m
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out j) ^* K: v0 D- P. S R& f- y" B
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
* S8 g# g4 q$ O' ]5 n. d+ f7 Yprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
6 j: P$ ~& G2 owhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.* i, c: [0 z) p
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high- |3 l" \# O8 A# S) Q; a
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
/ B. E9 g }" p# q* s9 n5 t
5 k: V3 l! `% b Calgary/Edmonton
+ [+ P* G0 M' g- R3 |
5 Z3 q9 [; w) m) O* s Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one/ S7 w6 R# x/ C) ?! @' o
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
- f6 f% M2 o! Dbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
6 H6 a# z& G O$ f2 B& c48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.% D, f3 l5 G4 H3 e H* R+ T+ B
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale3 h/ j% Y) s3 ]3 }
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
4 [% Q5 ^, g+ V DCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays- O! G4 B$ g8 W8 F' @( r( v
strong, this market will continue to do well.
9 j/ V! x F( A$ R1 }# P( J2 N% _5 @5 ^ m+ f' {) w2 ~, L2 ?3 c) W, X
Vancouver. P1 q' x+ q0 E5 t+ O. m
/ ^% x; d, F" N Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
, @9 l, M: @1 @( hbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous0 `0 ^! T, U3 J4 c
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the4 a- P+ [6 c y5 z; j, h* w5 s
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
( P+ H$ A) T$ ^+ d" Ygrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy- p ?: N' M) {1 D
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%6 v6 o/ w- _; X6 \
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
0 A, ?5 M& L. o( S9 R: o% wfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: B- U* { f. r& Z( ^good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
* ` K, m# i3 u4 A+ B( o$ L! ^7 w( Q1 _4 ]
Toronto; H5 y4 a8 p+ c0 |
7 J1 j+ \9 { X! i5 A. U- ? Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and, E# X* E: Y5 D- E: m/ Q7 i9 s
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is9 U6 d' _4 g$ J; b
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing4 E' v- [7 \7 n
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
$ l2 g; G6 S. C4 BThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square% ?3 \$ N3 V5 d7 e1 ^8 V' }
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
5 s2 }7 h8 ^7 K, P/ X( {& Z! pApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
5 V/ Q/ ~$ ~, z) e4 Y5 h
& z* x; |( C1 c( T4 b e' { Montreal
3 v) f+ S; U( Y/ E$ e
1 T) Y( a" ?0 r' v0 T, U Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall8 t! z2 z; U0 b7 O$ }1 s
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up3 s7 A& b% m( X6 Z$ d8 R
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in6 E$ P/ [5 q6 j% p
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate/ v+ I+ V# D7 i$ \# Y, X
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors2 L# o* k; B8 U1 ~5 O6 i
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
+ n) v5 B$ a' N W5 M
1 Q0 |. H: l/ C: F; n9 j The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
! G4 y2 b$ ` S, p- A/ linclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy' g' [- }6 F5 W/ [& ]
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos3 f; c' U- ]" T Q) G
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest/ A( t7 L" K6 B+ ]- u0 W4 R
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current) P5 }& L3 g. I) l1 G* e; z( U( \
prices."7 {3 E! N. W1 G$ h
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
0 t' T2 y' o. A6 O1 r$ n( t$ v, e Awww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
$ H8 H4 E1 A( r3 r9 h
7 a7 |) R" y0 L, k0 U( E a About PricewaterhouseCoopers! e0 K; Z% q/ L* d
/ Z' F8 q9 ~! d B, U PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,. p$ S+ A" X9 Z- ?0 U1 q0 z
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
. g& S- ^% \5 E& ]6 E5 Iclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) Q+ n; Q t2 y7 y
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop7 v. p- Q/ G2 `3 J: u4 Z* W
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
- ]0 c6 c0 R2 v4 c$ ~; J l: vexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
F9 V) x, `# {- c {8 _related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
; M5 g& b* h! q) p2 |' L8 ?country.
/ o! P' ?1 K+ e3 I "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
5 f8 y: c% m( T6 a2 _limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the" g7 \ j, P( y
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
% b$ @9 A3 ~% r8 S7 u- neach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.& F8 `; H5 V! \( l
$ o+ G& c3 P! z" _ s2 i. f
About the Urban Land Institute
/ F7 N' t1 n0 M& Q8 H7 ^( M
( e9 l/ E8 O" h The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
* c4 R+ g& [; `! Z& G1 ]# f' xresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
+ Z- M% J g) B0 {1 Y: I) r: ^leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
A3 _' t2 D% t" f zthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more4 e- l% `3 g8 [, K
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development! m. b: e# v- b" _1 p- d+ L
disciplines.' _& h( [ d7 D5 z
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.4 f1 l6 K8 B% w( j* w
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District# [! I2 A5 _9 L6 k* M+ c: q
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is) `2 {9 M, W" Y. X/ w5 @* C' y& A
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
8 \, |1 c! g7 h4 j. w3 Z& Whosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,' a# ]. J2 c1 {( ^" b7 ^6 g
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
0 ]5 H {3 F" ?; ]/ iHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
) X2 T2 [( r) L. _) h9 BPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
; y T& x% q" J- U9 S5 e `# icall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
/ P5 h- O+ J* G% d( g/ b: F) i5 \1 j! m @the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
' o$ B5 e( i4 s7 C* B- C4 W# m0 @! T/ e+ y
. w& \9 `" E5 N5 S
* A' Q, l& G, K2 q. g8 jFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,/ C [# o8 n" j k4 X% |- R/ j
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# I8 f; t6 X5 N6 B4 Bhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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