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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ) n! A0 |7 h* p
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat * A, ]2 R0 [. W5 N
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
& ?+ d: S+ O4 Mcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
2 K1 m! B! S0 F. O8 O0 Eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 X! Z2 o1 b) _' T7 kTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)! u" ?% A8 P6 F' e
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 d. d R* u9 F8 a6 A% F
upbeat. j" L8 k+ o7 y
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
0 S4 l/ j0 g4 C( Bannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
6 Q, G9 ~. X- d% Vinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
# \; E1 P ~4 V' [3 W& T8 t! y; n) yestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' c: Y+ W& b0 i! ^representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
, T7 X, k8 _8 K* K1 G; eOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
5 X: @9 o, l0 E; o7 a$ Sincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
$ u5 T( W, ~( H: W9 [ According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! @) t; e% d- A7 w) Q! |1 `# GReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment4 Z2 h/ ?. e- _1 m% X9 q/ h
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to: E" z e7 M: @5 Z' ^0 R1 C
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
! R8 l W+ Z4 [# n: z- Xhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
' v& |8 F9 r+ I: f0 y' { According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the3 H' n5 U- V, B* [: F+ z
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
$ O$ w9 o8 o. j: sspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey; R/ ]' y2 w" c0 D i
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
# U e# W6 Y8 K7 e9 v+ D, icorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be1 j& c+ o, @) p8 L+ V8 j& O0 {/ e
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent., g# |) S0 _; z b, V
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
% A- `$ p! {3 X+ y2 Jrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
5 I" S/ D3 v2 `) Y% g mcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
, A) v) M, l- Q4 H3 K S/ ]development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country; W0 ^5 y; {- N
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating4 t/ W' X% s. E1 ^& i1 z: I& K7 N
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
0 g) C/ N- G, v3 ?7 mresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
/ @! Q. H+ Y, v: D# } p4 mtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and+ @$ T6 Z8 q" N$ e
single-family housing looks overpriced.
6 ~- u( I& u+ h' o+ Z& [# h Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with$ K: S9 P: s$ v N4 C4 k- m
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian$ e, K: M! \3 `! |9 L. G3 h( m
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push: N; @9 u1 [6 t" b4 m' w) r6 n
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting }0 P7 b4 L7 n q6 l0 {( v2 }
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
5 L9 a3 }8 p7 `and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% i/ ?3 y" K! x6 fapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
: R1 N5 ~* [! e: H2 h' d( a2 zwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing! F, N8 b1 R) A4 y4 I
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
' P8 V0 m$ S7 @. ~# c0 p0 dthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
4 Q1 W( \3 F4 R6 f; B% Ein other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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# U, @7 |- u; V. G* T! R Canadian Markets to Watch
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; y: B; B( I B) O6 A The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central; J4 _; D- Z9 P/ ^+ w( F
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
$ p3 E' ]' A' L8 t% X# tneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back _; l2 e( ]( e) d( f5 p
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
, @3 i, R. J( i. x# d& A: jdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
5 U8 R3 a* u/ _0 b: D7 ^3 Hprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out8 v e) Q& O' O, Q
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
$ K! s/ y6 t; r7 Aprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
' t% T4 ?9 h- Z- W5 `9 cwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.7 f9 S. n* {! C# n4 J7 t
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
9 [: i1 u1 f; ^' x) t1 y# nratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.) ]% ]4 T# x9 I: A8 @7 m
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Calgary/Edmonton
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: n& s7 E7 B: I9 L- c( Z Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one# J* m6 o4 c* r- p- w' g: ?3 `
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a; l# x, M, |3 n% l! |! A
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
' ]& g& G* W+ j! B48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.$ }$ ^0 W7 G( y0 B
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale% M0 Z* y, t+ b
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the, q% K6 k) ~" x% v
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays6 W$ f1 F0 H# x1 l3 C5 U2 L+ d
strong, this market will continue to do well.' Z R, d. p5 z" q. N9 |' g7 Q+ p/ [
, K0 ]1 ^% h# x7 [9 z$ Q; S2 U7 Q Vancouver4 B. l: Q( G' p( a8 P
2 ^) Z* o* U" q Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
& e9 o5 z2 Q$ I% l5 Y) nbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
c" ~ L4 o+ {0 S) e) k. @0 g3 wreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
( Y2 [. j. \5 |* I- J3 A8 o8 n6 \market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a6 j- t+ r2 D J* U9 j5 H
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
- s9 O6 g% }% r4 r0 K" ^$ ^) P# ^recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%* o* X( y! v) `) Q! l
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%8 [& P' B% H+ a" K& |8 t2 C0 o
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very$ i7 \# {' U: P- z: {9 y
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.* v4 p \( J9 U( p C% z4 [
0 R" G+ w8 z1 d( |1 v( u9 A Toronto
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+ [3 Z$ @' P# W, S+ T" M Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and. ^$ Z2 h( J3 K. I) h/ @
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
+ C! W3 U9 l1 b* F0 i6 J. krelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing* Y- y B, q& |9 `
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
+ m% ]- C% h* t1 |/ t( \$ tThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square9 p8 K/ o v! b& e3 f c
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and0 T$ S3 r- ^1 | Z# R. P
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.+ m' F# c' x) ]5 `
1 P5 f7 ?" c' x3 ^: U5 A; k% J, l' P9 W Montreal. d9 T- L: g# W* s
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall/ D1 [8 p) w! ~/ T# O w; b
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
5 k0 x. O" H8 v+ ?5 P# zshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in8 H* i1 i/ _1 ]$ e0 O, P
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
& T: H( P# ^) b8 A% k |3 C& H* |sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors; _) ^* D+ Z0 k" ^' C6 w
higher as a "hold" recommendation.. K- a* M* [. e% K' I8 Z
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
Q% v2 ]' f/ R5 }" A" u" e! Rinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy3 d1 l. W% |6 Y2 E6 ?
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos0 E0 a8 C2 k; y, y2 ]
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
) I( {5 \8 W5 J; woverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
f* Y9 V- }- X& m" K sprices."4 A' ]" ?: n% G! T$ n5 }
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at! p z: C, H# c8 @
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers, Q6 p: f: w# Y: N/ Q
& k: | t S7 q5 E7 i& u
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
/ b; F1 f, ], M" [- Ltax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
4 [2 D5 z6 I Q$ w. U$ Wclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries3 ]; Y9 |/ U1 N/ j4 G/ }$ \
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
+ B& u) M6 ]4 y/ kfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of2 ~7 r: O* J; E; F' W
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its& w5 S. x$ ?# ^" a7 M1 h2 U
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
" b# I, y- E1 t1 g+ n& h0 H& d* ecountry.0 a6 `) e' Q( A% b, ~. y6 K
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario3 i8 _5 `' d; q ?% X8 Z
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the! m% F/ ~3 n& q$ ]) m
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,6 S* [# W, q9 Z( l% ?% I# g% R
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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) R* ?; l( @! X- o4 j& @& O: f0 q About the Urban Land Institute
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; X* r4 n' v2 H4 W# v2 u. z The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 Q! m; b; h. T3 N
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide1 k# `& o# `3 A2 N; G& S
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
S" ]3 [; O A7 a- gthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
" d, ~) j3 p Ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
( g) m9 c# Q4 O# [disciplines.8 ]7 d) q9 U% O9 |0 S7 z) M5 T. E
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.. j# H1 z+ L5 p/ p6 {' }& q
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
# K& h8 i. X% \6 o5 u" V1 C/ F% O4 NCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; L2 C$ w. w$ h* q, ^; F* Xnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
- r, `/ k4 J9 R7 [# {hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
" k& t Y# `; B1 n* D2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
) O# E, D4 |3 Q( f4 IHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
4 m, U0 j) m, X6 ^. vPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please: b" @) j+ d2 A6 N
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
6 X, g' L* Q, a9 J2 [4 S* s* Othe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
. u& @/ o1 Z$ ~& y3 X! F; z! r- m" `+ ]; S, q$ D- R5 v
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! a+ e% k9 q" r! dFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,' H- W( X/ x6 O5 B! X" H
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# V" a* X/ W1 A* M$ F1 ihttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html- M0 \# f" C( B+ U8 f- W
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