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Attention Real Estate Reporters: " h$ E7 t- E, w; d
* ?1 ?7 r! h# M: C# K6 A" KDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat . H$ O& o) _+ B7 u
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
R1 u* {' l4 R/ N2 d* e) _0 dcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern$ c- x6 w$ }( r; v- b' n. o7 v
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging3 ^9 j7 s7 c" p
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)! ~ n$ Z0 M8 j" U+ H% S
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more" j0 }! t* k, R8 [% E* T7 U
upbeat.! r$ Y) g6 i- m$ l
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded$ m/ e4 n% Q! j# c8 K6 h7 u2 T
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 H- Y3 g. g# j5 I4 ?! Z7 q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
; P! H2 D. x, eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company6 S5 y, ^' z, p' j- a/ Y
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.$ m3 {- E+ A9 a, f
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world) r5 b: T( D' \+ w
including Asia Pacific and Europe. L2 g. _6 q$ f# z- c" ^
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 D) D, A# ?/ T& n
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
0 ~$ [3 f+ K/ ^/ N! `! @environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to. D/ Z* q2 W, k0 D" r$ i/ o
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
4 R/ R" B9 n' c0 m! Ahighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."8 F* I+ U' C I
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the- }7 I! |9 r8 j: e0 c
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
9 a# ^8 z4 T4 h5 l Fspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey1 K. L2 G) `. ?$ |( _: A
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US* t: Y. h# r8 R }5 Y. C9 L
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be! ]1 A6 y) Z- |, G; t8 @& O
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 j. f/ t: E& ^# ^, @" J The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian& g6 @9 a) J& z3 ^) \* |
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by8 ]3 i) H7 v$ r6 ^/ l
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
& `" {, x. M; y: Odevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
|+ q* P* H) xespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
, V# U2 U8 h- f$ s% `6 Q" wdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
) w$ I. r" a# E$ L+ o2 |residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to, {' ]+ c. N1 H
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and9 m, T* W& S4 z* l. ]. x" K
single-family housing looks overpriced.
3 O/ F' s# g7 j' D9 V$ F Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: j8 Y5 i3 I* k; b
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian9 t, w9 Y" n& y% D
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push6 N1 K4 Y8 u5 \+ X3 ?4 E
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
6 R0 N& j. R' f x( G8 g0 Unew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
6 i2 l- D, f& ^1 R( [and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental# J8 O( g2 T* \5 }6 o
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
9 J2 N8 o: L' t- @) R% R8 Vwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
2 i* |5 `, W4 z6 Zshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
9 k4 l, g8 B8 Y" kthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
& e! \8 ?. A$ Z4 U1 k2 G8 z8 ^in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
; D: b. D8 C+ b5 e/ }2 e2 ~: T9 ~7 Q/ W3 B; @' c
Canadian Markets to Watch- Z: f( c5 ?! l7 W0 ^/ T% U# L
' f8 ]' l, `$ f5 ` The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central* s5 t& }# K, R( r1 O9 J
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
- @/ r9 G* B' o4 r/ C$ D' j: m' qneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back+ V z. l+ Q" D, O
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in) D- D2 B8 G4 A9 b5 Z: x( V
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical0 k7 W; I& ~' j" r2 I7 X( t
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out; D- V: d, o# Z6 A
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
$ t$ H* {+ t; `5 Hprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain% l% O8 M# j0 H$ _4 i" a; c1 c
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.( s- E6 }) H2 F7 @) N3 P
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high/ x$ a; r: P. G
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
+ Y8 {0 R5 {, T7 z$ E: f* r) t* ?9 t9 C) g; H1 Z
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
2 O& o t: I) M% z. Y; hboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
& C+ {5 p' \5 I& W) h- Kbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
& n& Q2 g* W2 ?8 q: ^48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
' w0 _/ s( R' ^5 V0 ]3 NFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale' o$ W# [- n! s1 l0 b. c9 P
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
. U3 h. \! S- X8 p1 C, }; Y7 g! ZCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays, g; D' j0 g6 Y) t( J& y1 q
strong, this market will continue to do well.1 N9 A; M$ l% \
, U! g1 D! i' g G! v
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
7 V, W3 s5 {: Pbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
S/ L" `6 ~+ u8 C4 {real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the% c* T8 Z5 s& A+ R$ m
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a0 x+ J' b9 R2 Z1 a" Q( D6 M
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
1 M$ F0 N* D2 w0 X; h) _recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%# v9 L7 }2 o! X R4 n: G
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
4 Z3 F* l- K" t, a' A! {; v" r) kfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very/ p/ [; \" u- H2 i5 G
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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8 Y- m f" G; U0 L! c# g: g$ z Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and) W$ J8 X- F. R& i
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is8 a# N6 S5 E0 V5 _' B' Q h' I# K
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing! H) O+ s8 j) A; v
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# X5 p4 |& r" i& o8 |+ OThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 A" k% a! Q) Q! N" B6 A
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and- @- g( l: i) K2 V' \# y
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.- t* ~' u. g8 _5 y
; N6 B3 Z# X/ V6 F Montreal
: U6 @. g Y( b( E4 z: S0 _' S i. w" J- d; w2 S. s8 [
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
5 {7 n( B$ u+ i+ Ogrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up9 L. \: R; p& G2 W3 j& l7 M- ?+ r; f% ?
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
; E% @& `& \; D( [+ |Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate' ^1 {: }2 M, v
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors2 M: Z7 i' R0 J5 S; S2 `
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years5 T l& U, J( N; a' _# Z+ ^
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy; u9 o& ]' v" g7 K q( l
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
. i5 K3 H! M6 unear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
+ X, ?9 D1 g$ zoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current% z) a1 M6 ^3 x6 m' \" B: f/ ~
prices."
- u5 i6 k7 D7 f A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
! W, P- E8 V; wwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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3 R: e8 x' x5 S1 f' V About PricewaterhouseCoopers% I$ C, r( n% W* H# U4 D
: N" i1 [; W4 } PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
# t( f, m; H7 U8 z6 \' f# Ktax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
( f" b) O% [* o6 L: F5 D% a% v/ ~clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
4 H' ^+ s% r7 z) b% x/ M4 ]+ ?0 Pacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
6 ]5 A, A8 C- o7 Y8 M8 I+ Nfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of# B+ J+ Q7 x) p R4 f! ]1 V
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its5 `4 V+ k% B' ?& _$ N1 P
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
% F7 ^' F2 Q9 l& |4 m" g2 N% ]country.
! W- G- x2 n1 B. N# u, M "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
! p# T8 ]* {) i9 Vlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
) G4 u% k6 W- A! E# I8 c. _' TPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,9 I* v6 L. @, g) x/ i
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
% ^% l1 K8 W2 y, R) {
( c6 N; s8 S2 v8 z% q- Z About the Urban Land Institute
9 \ `; Q( `" \( b: ]6 l3 m' K9 l9 ^5 H. ?- |
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
' f! s) \0 I8 @* C B9 m% ^research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide8 U* v, p9 w4 N" k( K
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
2 e) a/ V2 p, S" J# jthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
7 J" ? {% h d7 ?than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development$ T7 s' l9 [# j2 [% @
disciplines.4 ~4 ` s' r+ B3 y3 ]
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.5 N1 ` ^# [% f6 \; e7 I
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District- J3 t; x) b# y3 }" w' z
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
+ l$ ` z/ v0 T o/ enow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
2 m" s1 f' X2 q2 n0 C: A! b0 V/ Whosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,+ T) q3 P" p6 n$ u2 g% P! y
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake9 i# ?* b3 O. w
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
9 @' j: o: J1 @& ]5 s7 C; K4 v# A) @President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please6 l" B6 \: A) @! m/ B% x+ ?$ l
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
; ^0 b' f% }; }1 x" e+ P5 M4 Dthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
9 R% N/ f9 c% q( d: {6 I
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3 F) [; I2 c. \8 n5 I
8 m5 D8 H/ J L2 a" X7 GFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
1 m. a" ^' D; O" `* _- W3 V(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com+ Y+ G$ c- `( q6 m3 [
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html, D4 U5 C. ?. v" w7 I
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