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Attention Real Estate Reporters: % {7 q% o b, ? Z4 }2 X+ o* e+ k1 P
4 g' I0 e' _5 f, \& S; [5 t9 WDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat + J3 L- M. h0 g& p
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
i9 w! h0 l; N/ O6 ^: Tcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern) \8 b5 j' P+ e8 c
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging/ U" Y% Q2 K2 [4 |7 P& K3 M
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)( o( |; f' r$ y* L. l4 b. }7 \' l+ s) b
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more: \, |* ]1 \# N/ J8 y% C: E0 \
upbeat.3 W" D2 H, C* J: T
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded G: M' R t3 m
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects/ V( O) D: z1 m0 j" z& Y( H
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
& W$ M4 D6 M3 I7 X/ W/ Y9 Uestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
" `+ i; c( k1 U8 ^+ n- Krepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.& h; l2 @9 Y9 c5 ]" D# ?
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world* E1 i8 `2 R# R+ l) K4 T- O, n
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
7 \- O, O$ C8 n2 T$ c& i& d+ p According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
% i9 E0 e& p9 ?Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment- ^. W E/ T2 c4 [! f6 H
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
0 A8 p: e" S# b9 ?8 O5 R" Obe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record6 D+ E2 ]" ^7 s3 A1 v4 b
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ M( T( b4 U8 k) H( T& {, P; D* D According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the8 [; u3 j3 L& H1 Q
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
" x& n8 U6 g" [% b/ \6 especulators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey) w# {6 N: E/ z V" G2 I2 J3 x9 v
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US. K; C/ b# K6 N5 B/ N- U2 R+ d
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be( K+ j3 T( S+ b1 Y
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.& {. k5 t! F6 F' C6 J5 u
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian, P8 Q9 s, ?1 g! X% S# e1 l
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
+ x" w/ g* T/ Dcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land9 r5 S: n! ?, W' ]- R
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country( t& t' s) Y$ d) r
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
[: e! K3 i2 s# Z2 }4 zdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The3 @. E0 o( {0 M4 [% k
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to" B, x( D: S- M* a) Z5 H2 a: S8 W
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and3 M- K; K' ~% y+ _0 M) i7 a( X0 d
single-family housing looks overpriced.
; R5 ~$ y: \3 n% T! ]0 @ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
u, e: O1 B$ y1 @* Ztenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian. f2 w! f; U+ o2 a# j- Z
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
6 ]2 [$ Z4 k7 S8 Y( p7 d' c3 fhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
5 m3 ]1 s- A. j5 D/ D1 U/ inew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
% q4 d7 M$ v% f) @0 ~* Q# M2 vand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
' ?! I- w1 |, d1 ]4 x6 Iapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary/ J0 \( r/ i! H# |
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
D) m: m) C* J: cshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into+ ^ m0 r5 ^$ p0 \* ?3 N) j# i
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
. g/ M# K$ q3 \: ~7 ^/ Q; Uin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.0 C0 N- x! g6 I0 P2 l( p8 S5 Y
6 A0 G8 x" N3 b" B7 j( G
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central0 ^2 E! P# F% M! d Z
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour2 F* _; [# D8 M- c, U& B
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back( ^: ? g) k; @$ N& V
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
4 p3 s$ P! @# }8 M* }+ q' Ndowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
* A7 n, e& A# p e' G" qprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
2 [) O, F W' owest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
" S B- A- J# ~2 I" wprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
' p$ J: f& j0 \% p9 G+ ~1 L) Ewhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
) o6 R3 k8 ?7 M' X: ]2 s* Z- e9 o8 hToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high$ `1 \* r1 p5 s
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
' z0 k& P* C* N3 J) ]; F- J
+ J$ J0 m' ]& |! n" t Calgary/Edmonton
* M& w- J* N6 ~' C6 g% Q0 `6 c; f8 o( ]8 l; N
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one' m! M: U/ e# [; q
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: S8 u5 ^; k' |4 s# wbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
2 B0 q$ c g% s/ f' n% V48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
! V% x5 `4 o' |. gFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale) ^& @1 B* O/ P
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the5 b$ H8 k/ }1 y' y. e
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays7 `8 E, X6 T# u9 L/ f
strong, this market will continue to do well.
8 N* t( y7 Z# D+ [8 s7 W" k' e2 o _
Vancouver6 c! Z5 s1 f, G5 ~" o
9 t2 c8 u/ L; Y0 `" Y2 n, {+ y Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
7 {; Z7 T8 ^: E3 d& H1 W* D# Dbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous/ t- y! C. o( O5 t) S9 e# O
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the% |0 {0 K9 H* H4 x
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a( d; V/ }4 H9 q6 B: K0 V
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
$ h: ~! q+ N4 j' arecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%: G/ ^( i) K: R9 O' a
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
$ R$ w' A$ D$ Y# `1 ]. m- A4 dfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 f- T( V e+ u* }5 m& y
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.; `" q0 U: I: `$ k
/ i1 _$ E+ S% I$ k" `$ x2 J Toronto+ d" S6 ?* G- S1 h7 {, A
, \5 ~5 c+ z1 [9 x' W3 p0 r Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and" j" @* q$ n- _/ d
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" P5 X+ J) y% M$ q5 Arelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
; a2 n) X. ?5 H% T, z) Vindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
" t/ {- m' J: G, |0 Y- c6 UThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
h9 ~: p, h6 R: O P; @1 G2 ^feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
9 G: `% s4 g. x. f( m; P1 w# fApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
& q8 J; h0 P* i, _
7 d" @# P& s6 {$ n Montreal
$ d1 l$ Z" |0 I3 @7 E' ]- o
0 j \# G0 G* h8 u( L Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall4 m4 K+ V0 h! \0 ~! _5 [
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up7 \$ @( I- n& U6 T
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
M1 m z1 o3 W7 F2 OCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate1 c+ b: N2 F1 c* H) g8 S" e
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors( [2 j J7 @) Z3 a3 v
higher as a "hold" recommendation.' ^$ N+ A! _# L( W5 ?
& |) V* r$ \" z" W2 o
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
3 Q5 w; v/ J) ?/ C% q+ binclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy7 D- H4 O1 B+ G3 v+ u. _2 j
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos, f$ k! z% |- ^ n7 J0 N. v
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
- }; M9 D1 w+ i3 x+ @overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
, ]1 L2 @" F" x6 ~/ ^. kprices."
g& B4 V* d. c# B' K: L2 Y) C" } A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
, a* f/ Y$ Q, Y! K8 Cwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
( z7 C/ g/ b! ^- G0 A
: s0 s6 e1 b$ h About PricewaterhouseCoopers$ S0 M# [& U; y3 @
; P0 s% o3 i4 ^, D
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
2 K: d: w! W6 g, ]- htax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its$ O9 v0 V6 a2 w" i) }/ I
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries5 I3 \- N! T# F. f
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop: G# p- Q% S0 }0 J
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of" |+ c7 ~- ^ ~& c/ o8 p' s
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its$ a, q2 N$ s* A4 O+ K9 R
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
' \" P6 Z! f# I- i' fcountry.$ Q* h' A5 u- f# m$ J5 K8 t# n9 Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
1 O7 S+ v5 b( i4 G1 t7 {limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the; Y# }: {6 W# w, q6 x
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,1 c& `5 U( {9 S; h. t
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.1 D/ z( V2 r+ a. L* X- o
+ }4 ]& l+ ^7 o; x
About the Urban Land Institute
2 g! t0 s3 M X8 a" Y. @$ x; C6 E% O* [1 I3 y6 N
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and/ x5 _" }* t, y3 k5 _4 x
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
3 {! v* }8 l9 j( H, x8 I& oleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating$ Q2 ?9 [: n; Q n; \- u% K# I
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more, | ]9 B) n, Z. z; P0 b, Y
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
/ ]2 z% R5 A& k% v5 R, Fdisciplines.4 v9 I. a6 f. P4 w
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
- P) H" E8 ?1 h7 `# g" m/ LWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
7 `' F/ A1 ?, p$ C7 X6 A3 l W% _Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is# v0 L. } k3 d: S* I) l
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
; W) x+ e' k( Ohosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
) s7 i) d9 e3 u- D' x- A2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake: S: Z) M; d* j6 B, f; z7 w& d
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,( J; Y# P1 ~2 m& l
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
4 I) b+ w \4 k$ J- L2 jcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on1 Y, ^5 w" I% t9 g4 E
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
$ p( V; m! Z# d$ H2 k" H7 K. P& B4 X
/ B6 s7 @5 P4 ]3 x) v! i
4 T$ r/ w$ P! P0 E+ FFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
2 C& A1 O: L; H! h; C- v& \! l(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com& Y. V: T! o1 u4 y7 i) y7 e9 K; W. |; v
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html4 Q: S/ G2 X8 q7 E% ~4 b. c" m
9 n/ o) y9 k# c7 \" K
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