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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
- t4 a7 K3 T, ?# y- R$ m: E TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
4 N5 {6 @9 `. T2 B+ L2 |commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
* c; N! r: s! X& k8 H: O/ Yas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 Z4 k2 O# |* [6 w, m7 fTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)' Y4 r- p2 A7 X3 O" G2 H
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more) E8 u$ o" \. J+ P) [
upbeat.
1 U H8 y; ~' |1 r; l8 V% Z Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded- e( W+ f- _% u$ {2 O. j, f T
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
# Z! ~! ^6 w, ]) s, s" pinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
. G- G# X2 \3 b. e4 cestate experts, including investors, developers, property company) l7 U. x( Z/ V4 ?
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
; O7 j$ w7 A$ E! t% g5 GOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
5 Z- I, T9 Z6 s/ |! `including Asia Pacific and Europe.
" {7 P3 j8 a. |5 z According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
1 p# g6 C1 g0 n, z) g* \Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
/ h5 d$ n) i9 g9 ]5 t% tenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to6 A; m# e- t. T; t) Q3 O
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
" d# B3 b6 F: w" @, g# w( ^highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
. X% i. f( L1 }' J5 U6 E According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
8 j8 G& ]0 L, o( u' K; j) Rborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
# U* i' ~' m2 {7 U4 ]7 xspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey+ k, m7 B9 C I9 e$ U+ s
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US6 \' [0 d( Y0 p" s' R7 n
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be& u, _" F8 H9 t+ t b
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.3 J$ b: Z" g% x' i' R2 D
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian; w; B+ a. H: f" l7 X/ M, c o
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by+ k4 R. u# e9 W; A
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land3 a, {- J4 V1 k" ^" I# o# k' N. O4 ]
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country7 l1 v, b+ V; c/ H, l; v( K
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating/ G2 N, C( K; U: z [
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The5 ~/ ^. j3 c4 T- M; g
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to$ X8 K' D0 M" l$ U/ q
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and. p# [* i* E% a# `$ U8 O' [- h
single-family housing looks overpriced.
/ y3 e5 A, z, m6 |8 x- Z/ s Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with/ ?6 n9 ~" _; Q' { r4 a
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian$ L+ \. ?& L$ ~- t7 G3 v
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push( ^0 n1 P, B5 z$ H# X4 C
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting6 f/ `- D' _2 B" O) G' h3 a+ n
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
7 ~2 @# n; w- Sand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
( \! K: {, X' `5 e+ @0 M3 x8 `apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
9 d0 k3 @5 i' H: b' Pwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
- |4 A+ Y6 d. j. K0 [7 Oshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
+ S. [% k5 M7 X' |: Z, H0 Zthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
3 Y0 z9 G+ a8 e+ w3 qin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
; d9 g" m, ~) h$ [# L
: X/ }/ |. D, U Canadian Markets to Watch0 n' A8 {8 d G! c
; G/ V& J* P4 I" K4 d The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
( s& g1 n: ~3 ^; Q* |+ g& Rcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
) p9 D. B2 n: r, y! _6 }neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back3 u# T" p6 f; S/ v3 \- ~) G+ C
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in8 `' U3 d. v1 _: j+ m5 h
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical: M6 O$ L6 [' g7 |7 b Q3 P/ X
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
$ [/ w K7 I& e* P. Awest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment: X: v" x/ F2 i0 G6 U! n
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
) j1 Q: t* `$ K; Uwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
9 _3 O8 @3 y4 r( u+ A" a/ ?% OToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
" ]9 S. `& `( t: E" D2 q+ j Y/ i8 aratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging./ c& H+ ?1 }1 ^3 I0 `$ T
- B0 F a# w2 g# G) [
Calgary/Edmonton
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* L; h2 d/ Z( y3 v Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one- L# m; u7 n( t! K
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
, [1 h/ r U7 e3 V1 D: u! Wbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,- C" W) h% P }/ L) w
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
7 s) W" X# _! m3 V3 UFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale: D3 V' I5 z3 T# @4 H0 p
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the4 U) n! a7 k$ m8 d7 B% n
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays7 m4 ]' ?# k# a/ }! B+ Q, o
strong, this market will continue to do well.
# }$ P( ^1 r `& L/ \) l
6 k! B* P8 p: D Vancouver
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; @) d+ d: b+ u% {- d Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
" c+ Z- `2 H. H( P8 y8 ubooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
$ j5 R4 {, X; S! ]; ~' b- Lreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the8 T4 y8 f+ u' ^5 I3 u1 s) g0 c# n
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
6 E- R, @% S/ S7 |growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
2 D) _/ ?2 p/ x, r: [ Erecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
( [6 u9 o% G$ E6 m0 S0 ufor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%+ n" h9 \8 c% ~$ |* p4 R# u
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
, M3 y. a$ g' j9 }9 K/ hgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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7 E' ~' }/ u% \& s2 ]3 o Toronto9 w- i" H. G9 D+ L4 B) U
, k& ~- R5 [% _) P Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
3 c! o/ J3 S% `manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
, l' ?$ }2 i% b8 lrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing* h/ e* W4 {' a3 N T' n
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.* N0 V Y, s0 V9 m8 Q R, H# r
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square8 \+ J5 g/ [) p- q/ ^8 O
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and& r$ z2 ?5 _; x
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.9 D b& C, M# _4 n: W1 k( @" {
8 n; m, r) ]' t N/ e
Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
1 h7 j6 f& \. Z- {, ~* I( [growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
* Y9 M; l. Q) h3 K/ V, zshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in6 M4 p* d' d4 ^' s
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate- P& d. O7 t- u
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
. r4 [1 N9 P! \- ?" zhigher as a "hold" recommendation.+ P9 N/ j" P0 f* h- S. O, O1 K1 s
0 y9 D+ I" ]* q7 Y M" ~+ t" D The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
$ J9 g. p- i: }4 Rinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
1 w! D& ?, ~$ @% z `markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
; E5 t5 ?* N! }3 k. \4 m: Cnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
9 u# c7 T# G1 ^- m7 s8 voverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
0 T" ^+ C0 v* l8 Z9 N( m9 sprices."
) U/ b; u; z: L' |" ], B9 e* V A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at& d' k, O$ U; a) d6 C9 i. |
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
- i) w3 h( u% A5 a0 B6 w# @
0 Y5 P! e. V, X# X3 B+ ~) Q7 \ About PricewaterhouseCoopers: n9 F2 z* V$ H3 b
! ?2 J/ Z# M# v' [" Y- o
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,9 D) z0 _1 T( p. C7 X8 m4 U
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
' V4 J" ]* V6 l t; b" g8 Eclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
U; m2 R0 Z& V4 h/ @9 X+ pacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop9 M" a! _0 x% f2 u$ k% J3 U* q
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
+ i" L, A; r; s" u0 g2 I$ } C1 t4 Iexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its4 k9 b! f) r; D5 s
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the3 }3 Y0 N( A0 Q. ~* f5 Q* r
country.9 J. n1 T2 {; V
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 U* a: `7 o3 p8 {4 t, ^
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the5 ?- E' t! T, o* {% ]: N$ S# Y8 g3 X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
$ p# J' r9 X4 Y/ G; T. Aeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
: R+ o$ R$ G+ t, f) P. C( M0 E# F. M* D$ J
About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and0 V, Y0 q4 P) U F
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
0 p# D% P4 ~* `* I$ M' ~$ Xleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
) O' W1 p+ E$ P9 i6 v3 |thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more; s9 c. `; r$ {& f) O
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
9 [$ P+ H p6 Q8 `! D/ n8 ndisciplines.# x5 i; |# h9 \5 Q# m. [' _% K
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.6 k Q% E6 M6 W. m7 W2 z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District" `. g1 \; _4 X6 U1 m- F
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
, D! t5 Z1 N# _- C- Cnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be2 s3 ?+ w; ]/ ^$ `
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,6 R2 ~- @9 W u8 ]6 T
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
g$ D y6 r% ?. E3 c1 H9 E% X. H$ }Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,- _2 Z, I. x. f; g6 C
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
% @4 X: k( n" M* `6 D+ ncall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on1 T$ A4 u4 U8 ~7 n/ Q6 y* {' M7 _" `
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
+ c$ ]3 _& ]+ \# R& L3 M5 a, x" Y; w) ?! g1 Z
3 d9 g, k0 P d2 A: T; E/ ]+ B( X% X# m- A& M( Y- M/ v% F' ~. J& Q$ Z9 t
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
* A) I+ N5 v, \1 p6 y! }* l2 J(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
% L$ _$ \/ n$ q2 v0 @ N+ R- _3 `http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html% S2 _" S6 \9 K1 [ h
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