Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
% q. x* H8 ^8 {% X% ^3 q: YNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
% }% C6 X4 A8 q$ {5 N! K' @
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
; _  {. I3 W$ q8 q4 Q
" w0 S: z( L  i/ G- E9 v: AOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
) \1 Z6 C- r# A% k3 @
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
: [7 U7 I, O7 H' v) m2 a# j3 a  n
7 n# p( G* K9 D+ Q0 OJul 2007
NA
2328
% R& _: O3 A  u+ z2 K# u2 m6 N 717
, ~) s: {# v% A( d4 W6 ^6 y0 {* C 442,752
  c$ B' }; G  c4 x: _ 410,000
/ g8 b4 n! l" }5 c2 q3 X+ X) c 320
28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
7 G! }3 s7 s0 I: t# z$ w, q 1011
8 m. T9 X' j. [. t! W* z* Q$ [# e 442,817
409,000
( b' e% i8 I5 `) T. l) w+ q* w 328
3 j& T# j$ k( h- h1 h 22
38%

May 2007
NA
/ Q( I& R* b" S" G 2288
1261
$ c( b0 Y: i$ ^) m* U( U. N 451,216
415,000
/ j. L$ W. i* h) L, U 322
19
- A, @3 i' e7 Z5 F) A0 P- \0 ^ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* D8 k$ e% r  O4 c* u鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
" d% h3 K) o0 y  q. Y, u& E; `这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

  h/ n4 Q' i( ?7 s- k0 N
3 ^, U  W% Y$ r+ w( X! l! v/ A用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
* |( e4 Z+ ?6 j/ e9 o7 R8 s( t2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& l4 {5 g/ b( @+ v1 a9 l3 u1 o存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
7 M5 j8 m/ ?/ |: l7 o
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

2 \. Q2 g6 n# @/ o% b% y5 C: h这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

! L, h7 P5 g$ o3 P

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
: `4 }$ J& ]6 r* j" w& P) FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

  F; ?0 _) P7 ]8 J' D" M+ s

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
# r/ f; B2 w# FThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

, i2 I  R5 _: r  F2 X1 j1 {
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
" j3 W1 [1 A6 F2 J1 o+ GEdmonton Single Family Home
# q6 ~+ F; F+ v- t4 u4 G9 r. _MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

7 j4 d, ?. `6 S9 b2 _# i3 r9 gQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

4 k5 V  {0 H; A7 M; K6 M
( D5 e* g2 _. f5 T9 |$ y5 T( YI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

, v3 ^, @7 Y8 \1 k+ q" G) Q, [

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
( }  F; Z2 N0 A% n1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
: I( @- f/ ~) Z3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
, F, m/ b* `9 l$ C
! V( T8 ]+ E# j# w" u

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。