Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
4 i1 w3 c* n! B& H5 cMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
3 s4 j" |# f) a  nNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

  G0 n. H+ M. [% S0 \- vDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

9 P8 v0 E. k: Q9 o" ZOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
* c6 p: N  b3 a- g
% A- O" u4 Q) Q% KAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
/ s* \- U0 X' J: q3 n 717
442,752
410,000
320
" t' A' k4 b. p: D  K+ J 28
; t1 D# S6 }0 t5 `9 e7 c: ~ 31%
# s, x+ h* S5 h& P
Jun 2007
5 F+ Q: Q' D7 H. m) M NA
) Z2 a. r" I* s# @7 m5 A 2661
1 {0 k6 E5 i7 x4 D! T1 c+ }- g8 z 1011
- U0 d5 T1 \! n1 a7 ^ 442,817
& x( j# {) ?5 E. v7 H. f* d" U6 J4 ] 409,000
328
22
2 }" w' o; k8 P) e; P 38%

May 2007
NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
! O* Z2 v, p& p0 s) q; a# | 322
19
9 N# v: u0 V, C  I1 l( k 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' M' _% r2 h4 X. {* b4 o% e/ a+ e8 \存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) b9 n1 a8 R! e7 I6 e* Z鉴定完毕！

: `) n2 Z/ X1 R, Y
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
- R% y$ `# P3 `6 Z" |6 @鉴定完毕！

5 I" T" S8 I; U, ]; w% o
& \2 ?/ U# W: }: C呵呵，太不专业了吧。

# m- C' w) }5 }新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
) {- g- t1 i9 Q/ v7 X3 \1 J2 \$ h! D
% @5 Q+ [7 ?) A+ A/ U# {就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

$ H, y, P2 ^7 q5 x8 a. V7 @* Q这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
6 a1 g$ f; p6 T, BDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

/ m8 h# r! P1 X, Q9 n: s. C
6 a* E6 P% I- J. }* {$ U- {+ c6 }0 J

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
/ v. D$ l( p2 }- ~2 z& yIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
5 u. J0 @9 Z3 N4 IIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

3 B' v5 t/ q# D& D0 u! d
" @1 P/ e* u& T# E; h3 cI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
& w. j  v4 H: h4 TEdmonton Single Family Home
& m, V7 i' m. X8 g1 j8 |! MMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
& K1 B  L4 A5 l) `3 }" _! bIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, t6 p+ W8 K+ ~! g+ a  M/ K( I6 eNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
. F( M% R, s% ^1 u/ E2 F9 K
* C& [0 W6 |7 A7 S7 D9 G+ T
9 b4 B8 f- v9 V' aI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

0 x: X  f( G4 r, F. S

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
6 A' }- G( t+ T: x3 P1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
, [- {/ X7 A$ z3 \8 Q4 ]2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
/ D+ D% `. x& `8 @3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

+ c: U+ O( I/ |. ?' N下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
. u" L8 l. I% F看来，观察days inventory 更重要。