Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
9 o+ k5 @9 v* ]MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
1 O  k$ w9 T) _Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
, p7 A0 P9 H" N
( k( S- H+ j/ ODate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
& S+ C- }/ [) M" @
! P# F9 K" O) W1 [, T7 {Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
& Z0 _! G1 j1 E
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

5 L! q7 ~- ]2 ?1 PJul 2007
0 z5 n1 c$ G6 o5 \, _. J  E1 Y7 q NA
1 q" L1 o2 \1 C0 o8 d! q2 a 2328
6 b( S8 I# X% S 717
442,752
410,000
320
28
1 H: {8 W" C% m) H' R 31%

* O% P! u+ C; Y; m4 z8 xJun 2007
: \# q& P) x2 w( N) @2 Y NA
0 P$ o, U; s. J4 ` 2661
+ N8 M3 F* y1 L0 p 1011
4 L; W- W" e! z" m 442,817
# \. M& J& x: r; q( x3 E 409,000
328
9 ~9 X1 d2 `! C; E( p" z/ S 22
1 U$ u# U2 h  W8 N 38%

May 2007
NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
+ O: _1 R! ?' `% h! [ 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
. x; p9 J9 w+ Y% Z1 N/ G# f存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
: n1 z  ?; J: R0 Y鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
+ P% C! E# j3 w. ~; u6 q* R. y1 A) w3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
+ m3 p, R0 [% Z# r5 q4 ?$ T鉴定完毕！

3 T  V# l( U8 N" o) ~
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

! E4 E, r. r) I& X5 b- D# k新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
$ g' E0 `2 J5 b7 e
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
+ h" K/ L5 k  [1 X% M6 k: i3 h
; v, n& ^+ l  E4 N( A( j这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
, ^& p" J/ d* D; |Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

$ u0 u6 H5 B4 b9 {+ L" x, I# B

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
* N; |  W( i  X, o1 F. P: Z+ v9 D. PDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
8 t: J5 H3 R" ]' D  Z, ?8 \Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
8 ]2 m$ v/ L6 B. k2 e6 K# xHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
. g! c. T2 p4 G0 nThat is what i say half full or half empty.
7 f& H  [/ I# g# a) V# N. rgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
$ y( v) C3 E- b! g3 }/ M9 IIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
# q* o+ T5 o0 S( x: h4 ~8 l8 D) lIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

1 b# }5 b" T: r! f9 e4 ]6 s8 \I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
) ?2 J% N1 B1 C, S& e& S+ |% VEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

% B8 m$ X& v) u- |$ ^% xQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

: r; r& x2 V% @% @% g

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
5 L, u( A! j" }7 d1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

# S5 @0 N0 k) _  w3 H3 {
! s6 N  O5 F9 `1 P- G/ B下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
/ e' a+ K. O- W, N; s

  w: g% `) b+ L, g, ~0 f
+ N, V# m1 h# u1 W. b只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。