Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ c. m2 F; E9 l1 }1 ^4 HNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
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Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
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Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
, A" x: S3 t7 v7 d) b% X; L8 G
Jul 2007
NA
2328
0 i/ s5 M) L9 o7 P9 D 717
$ W6 Y! @5 q7 N. [  L1 D% a 442,752
410,000
* X6 Y! M( k( [% U# p 320
) l1 a, k0 V$ k4 e4 P! O6 y% k: S 28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
6 x2 K' E3 e4 Y% a- x% f 442,817
409,000
328
3 K9 s5 M3 }' v  G 22
38%

May 2007
4 V. U% d* v2 r  _1 O; l: y$ D NA
0 c/ g5 Q/ h$ ^% a5 T! _" C4 E 2288
3 q: g6 H8 R$ B5 |8 x 1261
451,216
/ ~, M' s) `5 q( v 415,000
322
19
2 U6 Q  G2 Y6 q 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* e( s$ L/ {5 a7 u8 ?9 u9 X鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
- k/ S- B" Y- S8 w# I) _存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
5 w, \2 A# Z# k% f鉴定完毕！

) ]3 ~7 \& J. K( P0 c
) U9 J" i6 `* w# \9 V( N4 x0 a9 ?用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
* o7 _$ F0 W: T. K; k, C/ B% U! x/ {3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
! L7 @# b( ?0 m3 E& W9 G& R鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
& p' g" G- m6 M* \
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
. X/ t0 b8 M* O4 l7 l
' a# p# x6 H7 O/ v  p: p2 C就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
& |0 p% Q2 @2 `) _' ?
: K0 t6 `/ g7 J, s, F这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
  w6 p$ Z" P3 _: n0 e( ^Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

5 r6 i8 O1 K% l& `1 C% j  E2 K

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
+ ~/ B/ m, }# f7 J8 R+ B. d7 w- Y% lIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
2 E& R' Q) {3 w! cgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
+ g5 P4 e& Q3 ?% @( e. @Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

2 C# T3 B- x8 }$ [6 l6 O  _9 T
+ D6 S6 C1 h. h+ P6 E5 @' ZI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
/ f8 P. j+ J! ?( F. O1 IEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
  E% D8 j# z* W) s' O' DNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
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I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
9 Z4 ]2 j3 e1 f( q) c


只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。