Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
) Z$ E, U) j. v& W( eMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

. P3 d- y/ V7 f2 G0 aDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

8 E( o/ q6 [. K) \( X7 yOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
- d: u7 f$ P4 ?  b4 q0 K( i
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
# e: Z) I0 E3 x
5 b; f" L! q# b1 CAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
7 G7 b8 ~1 v6 v  V5 W& S, z
% @$ H1 D4 E5 [$ f+ C$ a2 YJul 2007
1 X- ~: U! E. _0 @, Z7 _ NA
2328
6 ?/ e7 n. w: J 717
# l% R7 C+ H9 { 442,752
410,000
3 n" x# u7 H$ L/ [ 320
9 e& _7 Q# q+ B2 p, K 28
31%

4 K- I) l2 ?3 T6 v- k( IJun 2007
( y' |  ~/ m9 _7 K; u NA
2661
1011
( Z7 w$ E; {# ^0 n1 X 442,817
409,000
4 v0 M) `8 p/ Z! J  I4 Y 328
7 t" a8 R2 ~( b3 J! i: @# T# r 22
38%
4 y' o- T7 F4 Z' q: z
May 2007
" E. P3 T8 |# \ NA
2288
" T3 I# T" A7 J! X 1261
451,216
- G2 X% T) [, y# p% ^7 s 415,000
; |; V7 J- l: b2 H/ ? 322
19
1 i) q6 M7 C8 j 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
: {& Z' v5 V) I0 {鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ ~: z2 K2 g9 I- R9 l- }; s2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
0 a1 e8 K1 G  g  U3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& O: Q- K$ z- E3 J( [: Z! b鉴定完毕！

9 `5 x$ t+ l' `; z$ P. }
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
( L: Z8 |- c6 R- @" V
* v6 v4 A; U+ C新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
0 B# s8 E( V9 }* ~5 o9 I
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
; y% b" L! e' }% ?* UDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

* `* G5 T" C  m# l8 \2 E# \9 w: x
8 `, z  a- E2 o$ U/ Z; V

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
; U& C2 |! T! g/ S" I$ A/ ?" \Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
( F, x6 ]* p& m0 g: l& }5 h8 n2 J% E1 BThat is what i say half full or half empty.
8 E' p& {! A1 r' p' ?; @! Igood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
0 n4 D1 q* h; Z, GIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

* `. `6 f' m, YI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
# d3 y- ^. d" eEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
2 f6 J9 M& O; j. I9 `1 tIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

; X9 ^& d+ u: _, fQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

% _" Z2 y% P' Z. K' g
) X8 |. V. k0 o/ [& Q3 ^( LI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  _) o& j- A- F  k7 H( S3 I2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' L* i9 _- V- D: C! D( ?' n3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

! F# i- H1 S* C2 p; n& V下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

. r( |4 E/ X/ }
$ ~% j* u4 g/ b- }4 j7 Z
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。