Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
9 n) {; N3 y" B' F0 r5 W. r* mIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
1 p8 }% {8 \: j& g$ s8 S( X8 zRBC can give you 4.0%.
! K. G8 D( b* W9 H+ _/ T7 b. s(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
3 H3 ^* T4 z6 N& a+ A% q# |/ oAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
9 ~6 w3 o. @$ E- vFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
% X) p6 n2 }/ r: C) LRough calculation:
% i9 b( d; j7 H- ~2 RRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
  }) J( T/ |; i1 E0 x- _: u) RBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
+ r( G' M' t4 q( D  Y, cDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
9 T: y) ^# Y& _9 h1 J+ H" R$ ^If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

: k, g* w" `& T/ _" b0 Y3 hAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
  ]( ^6 g% w: l' G

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
& W2 x) N: Y* c7 {  PWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
$ ^3 ~; B* v) \* Y: I! O& ~) RNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

2 J4 Y* n9 u; s$ r: c1 D  p

2 j  Y6 T( p3 R6 y- T这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
# ]# u" f" ]1 S5 y$ J- v政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
8 R- J' ~3 ~  g0 pBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

0 G7 Z/ T5 K/ Z/ E呵呵，多打了个0。
/ b, ~% I" l- t; K
& O) y& ~: a* K# f4 m4 |7 g: G; X多谢。

+ N; [* m6 Q0 \0 \% c2 A把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
! U7 K1 r4 i3 K2 C9 |& i2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
% H5 ?! o/ @4 K. B) X! E如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
# C. }; _5 Q8 C3 e9 {, z
现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
+ W9 y7 \+ n! ]' E. O- C还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
! h" _2 f, |5 R! [) x  S  t如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

+ |  j! X+ H7 c  y( c, o% U- a[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]