Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
& a7 E2 g  o% J# u  w# Q- ZNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
4 \# K7 ~, ?5 D2 ]7 v6 F5 tTD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
3 S+ l% e7 A) TRBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
$ }2 M9 N6 K6 mIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
* [: B! ]9 H" }* r/ I) k8 OAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
' a1 |9 T3 @. g4 H6 {6 u) dAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
  M& b: o4 P8 q9 p/ T; `& f: EFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
( F6 I3 z9 F9 }  K$ [( TBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
6 I6 r( L( F1 D& pIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
. V4 d$ ~7 R% i% gIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
& R# @% C. p% L5 s3 ?! H' P6 h! MNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
! s9 h0 {' Q2 {8 H) e- \If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

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( z+ ^0 K/ W! _. J
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
  u4 n# W% @# x  `如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
  @' g4 ?2 I; n/ p! c! l9 B政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
7 I5 B8 B( C- m( \- }Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

; h, W& `' N0 U0 ^2 W4 e呵呵，多打了个0。

多谢。

把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
- Z3 v5 L* ?" p, O; n我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
3 v9 k2 g2 Y' ?' k, K7 H% k如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
; [& c3 m4 x3 |. K" ]7 o3 `政府也会需要钱。 ...

7 L$ v1 k0 Z$ }" i) t3 `% ^但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
6 K) m# [# a+ o' g% C还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
% O: d" E: b/ L& C8 H% q# d+ K如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
+ [7 ?4 p& z3 g- e) w3 URate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
4 H  W/ M/ J% W1 q! k6 d5 c- uUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]